SUB-SOVEREIGN

CREDIT OPINION15 May 2020

Update

RATINGS

British Columbia, Province ofDomicile British Columbia,

Canada

Long Term Rating Aaa

Type LT Issuer Rating

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Adam Hardi, CFA +1.416.214.3636Vice President-Senior Analystadam.hardi@moodys.com

Seun Gbaiye, CFA +1.416.214.3062Associate Analystseun.gbaiye@moodys.com

Michael Yake +1.416.214.3865VP-Sr Credit Officer/Managermichael.yake@moodys.com

Alejandro Olivo +1.212.553.3837Associate Managing Directoralejandro.olivo@moodys.com

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Province of British Columbia (Canada)Update to credit analysis

SummaryThe credit profile of the Province of British Columbia (Aaa stable) reflects a large and diverseeconomy, very strong fiscal management and a high degree of fiscal flexibility. Despitesizeable capital spending which keeps the debt burden elevated, the extended low interestrate environment helps maintain strong debt affordability. A long history of balanced fiscalresults and accumulated surpluses allows the province to weather some of the near-termeconomic and fiscal pressures stemming from the current coronavirus pandemic. We expectthat the pandemic will result in higher debt burden and modest consolidated deficits in2020/21 and 2021/22, but will not have material long-term credit implications.

Exhibit 1

Debt affordability will remain strong despite a rising debt burden

2.7%

2.9%

3.1%

3.3%

3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F

Net debt and indirect debt as % of revenues [L]

Adjusted interest expense as % of revenues [R]

All forecasts are Moody'sSource: Moody's Investors Service, Province of British Columbia public accounts

Credit strengths

» Diversified economic base and competitive tax environment

» Considerable fiscal policy flexibility from institutional framework

» Prudent fiscal, debt and liquidity management

Credit challenges

» Coronavirus pandemic will weigh on near-term fiscal results and debt burden

» Large contingent liability from debt of BC Hydro

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Rating outlookThe outlook is stable, reflecting our assumption that the province has sufficient liquidity and fiscal flexibility to address the near-termpressures of the coronavirus pandemic without material long-term credit implications.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeThe province's credit rating could face downward pressure if net direct and indirect debt were to exceed 100% of revenue acrossmultiple years, coinciding with a loss in the financial management of the province, as evidenced by a return to operating deficits. Afaster than forecasted rise in interest rates or a weakening in BC Hydro’s financial metrics beyond our current assumptions could alsoadd pressure to the rating.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Province of British Columbia

(Year Ending 3/31) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F

Net Direct and Indirect Debt as a % of Revenue 86.8 78.2 81.5 71.9 73.5 88.6 95.4

Cash Financing Surplus (Requirement) as a % of Revenue (1.1) 3.1 1.3 1.0 (0.4) (3.2) (2.8)

Consolidated Surplus (Deficit) as a % of Revenue 1.7 5.4 0.6 2.7 0.3 (5.9) (3.0)

Adjusted Interest Expense as a % of Revenues 4.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.4

Intergovernmental Transfers as a % of Revenue 16.1 15.9 17.4 15.8 15.9 17.2 16.7

All forecasts are Moody'sSource: Moody's Investors Service, Province of British Columbia

Detailed credit considerationsBaseline credit assessmentThe credit profile of the Province of British Columbia, as expressed in its Aaa stable rating, combines a baseline credit assessment (BCA)for the province of aaa, and a high likelihood of extraordinary support coming from the Government of Canada (Aaa stable) in theevent that the province faced acute liquidity stress.

Diversified economic base and competitive tax environment

British Columbia is the third largest Canadian province by population and fourth largest provincial economy, accounting for about13% of Canada’s GDP. Located on Canada's western coast, British Columbia remains an important hub for goods shipped to and fromAsia, and as a result the export markets of British Columbia are more diversified than Canada and other provinces. While Canadatypically sees over three-quarters of exports flow to the US, the US accounts for only around half of British Columbia's exports. Otherkey markets include China and Japan and several other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the dominance of China in theprovince’s Asian exports exposes it to some concentration risk, the wide diversification of sectors and markets reduces the vulnerabilityof the provincial economy from sector-specific or trading partner-specific shocks.

The economy provides for a large tax base ensures that provincial revenues are not strongly impacted by a decline in one particularsector. Furthermore, British Columbia's level of taxation is at the lower end of the Canadian provinces, presenting the province theflexibility to raise taxes if revenues were to fall below expected levels while still remaining competitive with other jurisdictions.

Economic diversification is underpinned by several large industries including real estate (including rental and leasing), wholesale andretail trade, and construction. The province also has an important natural resource sector, primarily natural gas and forestry products. ACAD40 billion investment in the province by LNG Canada, a consortium of international energy companies, including new pipeline andliquefaction plant construction projects will provide support to the natural gas industry.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 15 May 2020 Province of British Columbia (Canada): Update to credit analysis

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Leading up to the coronavirus outbreak, British Columbia’s economy outpaced the growth of most Canadian provinces, with real GDPgrowth between 2% and 4% over the last four years. The strong historical economic growth positions the province to more easilyweather fiscal shocks than the majority of its provincial peers. As a result, although the province will face an economic contractionin 2020, we expect that the decline will be more muted than our forecast of a 6.1% real GDP decline nationally in 2020. Further, weexpect a strong rebound in 2021 as containment measures ease.

The province’s unemployment rate, which was close to 5% in 2019, will remain low relative to other Canadian provinces despite ourforecast of higher unemployment for all provinces in 2020 as a result of coronavirus-related economic slowdown.

Considerable fiscal policy flexibility from institutional framework

British Columbia, like all Canadian provinces, enjoys significant flexibility in its financial management. The institutional frameworkgoverning relations, powers and responsibilities between the Canadian provinces and the federal government is well developed andstable. This framework provides provinces with unfettered access to a broad range of tax bases and wide discretion over expendituredecisions, allowing provinces substantial flexibility to address fiscal challenges.

Compared to their counterparts in other countries, including the German Länder and the Australian states, Canadian provinces enjoyfar greater fiscal and budgetary autonomy. As a result, British Columbia benefits from a high degree of fiscal policy flexibility that ismore similar to sovereign governments than many international sub-sovereign peers. These positive institutional factors increase theprovince’s ability to manage through economic downturns and handle higher debt burdens.

The institutional framework also includes important federal fiscal transfers to the province, including health and social transfers. Thesetransfers are highly predictable and secure and are therefore largely unaffected by economic changes. They will account for 17% ofMoody’s-adjusted revenues in 2020/21 and will provide a degree of stability in an environment of heightened economic uncertainty.

Prudent fiscal, debt and liquidity management

The province’s forward-looking fiscal analysis incorporates several measures of prudence to minimize the impacts of potentialdownward pressures, including using economic forecasts that are below private sector consensus forecasts, a practice that providesgreater flexibility to accommodate potential negative economic shocks. Additional forecasting safeguards include incorporatingforecast allowances and contingencies into its budgets to protect against potential volatility to fiscal projections and to incorporateamounts for unexpected expenditure pressures.

The province follows prudent debt management, including efforts to minimize the rise of its debt-to-GDP ratio and therefore minimizeits interest burden. Debt maturities are well staggered and debt issues are hedged for interest rate and currency risk. The province mayalso pre-borrow a portion of its debt issues in a given year to take advantage of favourable interest rates. Capital market access remainsstrong, despite some stress in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. The province also maintains strong levelsof liquidity from cash and investments, which measured nearly 14% of net direct and indirect debt and 10% of expenses at March 31,2020. We expect that the province may build up its cash reserves in 2020/21 to provide a liquidity cushion for fiscal uncertainties.

The province has also successfully introduced recent reforms at the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC, a wholly-ownedCrown corporation), which include caps on insurance minor injury claim amounts and moving from a court to a tribunal review forminor injury claim disputes to improve losses driven by higher injury claim costs and higher crash rates.

Coronavirus pandemic will weigh on near-term fiscal results and debt burden

The coronavirus pandemic will result in materially weaker 2020/21 fiscal results compared to the province’s budget forecast releasedin February 2020. Relative to the province’s budget forecast of a small surpluses for 2020/21 and 2021/22 (0.3-0.4% of revenue), wenow expect modest consolidated deficits between 3% and 7% of revenue. The forecast for weaker results is driven by our assumptionof lower than budgeted tax, natural resource and crown corporation revenue coupled with higher coronavirus-related healthcare andsocial spending. While we expect these impacts to be temporary, the uncertainty around the severity of the outbreak could lead tochanges in these assumptions.

3 15 May 2020 Province of British Columbia (Canada): Update to credit analysis

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At the same time, we expect that the debt levels will remain elevated as debt is necessary to provide liquidity support, finance theprojected deficit in 2020/21 and support the province's capital spending. In contrast to our pre-coronavirus forecast of the debt burden(net direct and indirect debt to revenue) of a band of 80-90% between 2020-2023, we now project a debt burden of around 90-100%during this period, with the increase due to both the elevated debt levels and lower revenues. Nevertheless, an extended period of lowinterest rates helps maintain strong debt affordability.

We base our capital spending estimates on the province's February 2020 budget which projected capital spending requirements ofnearly CAD33 billion for 2020-2023 supporting a range of renewal and new capital infrastructure expenses, including spending onhealth, education and transportation projects, as well as hydroelectric projects. New borrowing will finance a significant component ofthe capital spending plans, although we expect that there could be some slippage in borrowing requirements as some businesses pullback on spending and the province could re-prioritize a component of the capital spending to future years.

Large contingent liability from rising debt of BC Hydro

The province issues debt on behalf of British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority (Aaa stable) (BC Hydro), the wholly-owned electricutility company of British Columbia. While BC Hydro generates a steady revenue stream with sufficient cash flow to supportoperations, its total reported debt has risen considerably over the last decade, increasing from CAD9.2 billion in 2008/09 to anestimated CAD23.6 billion in 2019/20. Its debt is further expected to rise as the utility moves forward with the construction of the SiteC hydroelectric dam with a budgeted cost of CAD10.7 billion.

The province has gradually phased out the level of dividends it requires BC Hydro to pay (reducing by CAD100 million each yearstarting in 2017/18, with no dividends starting in 2019/20 until the debt to equity ratio improves to 60:40), and therefore the utilitywill be in a better position to reinvest its net income into its own operations and capital projects.

BC Hydro has low rates relative to its peers, giving it the flexibility to increase revenues through rate increases (if approved by theregulator) to continue to support its operations and debt obligations. However, some of the utility’s financial metrics are among theweakest of Canadian provincial utilities and the use of largely debt financed regulatory asset accounts puts pressure on the balancesheet. Should BC Hydro's financial position deteriorate, the possibility that it would require some support from the province willincrease.

Extraordinary support considerationsWhile British Columbia's baseline credit assessment of aaa already places the province in the Aaa rating bracket, Moody's also considersthe likelihood of extraordinary support coming from the Government of Canada to prevent a default by the province, should thisextreme situation ever occur. The high likelihood of support reflects Moody's assessment of the federal government's incentive tominimize the risk of potential disruptions to capital markets if British Columbia or any province were to default. It also indicates amoderately positive federal government policy stance as illustrated by the flexibility inherent in the system of federal-provincialtransfers.

ESG considerationsHow environmental, social and governance risks inform our credit analysis of British ColumbiaWe take into account the impact of environmental (E), social (S) and governance (G) factors when assessing sub-sovereign issuers'economic and financial strength. In the case of British Columbia, the materiality of ESG to the credit profile is as follows:

Exposure to environmental risks is low for British Columbia's credit profile. Although the province is susceptible to natural disasters suchas floods, severe weather and wildfires that could result in mitigation expenses and economic losses, the province manages these risksprudently and the amounts do not result in significant pressure on the province's fiscal profile.

Exposure to social risks is moderate. We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk, given the substantial implications forpublic health and safety. The uncertainty regarding the outbreak's breadth and severity adds to downward risk on fiscal outcomes.Additionally, the province faces social risks stemming from its responsibility to provide services in such sectors as healthcare,transportation related infrastructure, public safety and education.

4 15 May 2020 Province of British Columbia (Canada): Update to credit analysis

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Governance considerations are important, but the risk to the credit profile is low. British Columbia displays very strong governanceattributes. These include the use of forward-looking plans and analysis, transparent and timely financial statements, and prudent debtand liquidity management as highlighted in our analysis above.

Further details are provided in the “Detailed credit considerations” section above. Our approach to ESG is explained in our cross-sectormethodology 'General Principles for Assessing Environmental, Social and Governance Risks'.

Rating methodology and scorecard factorsIn the case of British Columbia, the scorecard-indicated outcome of aa1 is close to the aaa BCA assigned by the rating committee. Thescorecard-indicated outcome reflects (1) an idiosyncratic risk of 3 (presented below) on a 1 to 9 scale, where 1 represents the strongestrelative credit quality and 9 the weakest; and (2) a systemic risk of Aaa, as reflected in the sovereign bond rating of the Government ofCanada.

For details of our rating approach, please refer to Rating Methodology: Regional and Local Governments, 16 January 2018

Exhibit 3

Province of British Columbia

Baseline Credit Assessment Score Value Sub-factor Weighting Sub-factor Total Factor Weighting Total

Scorecard

Factor 1: Economic Fundamentals

Economic strength 5 98.06 70% 3.8 20% 0.76

Economic volatility 1 30%

Factor 2: Institutional Framework

Legislative background 1 50% 1 20% 0.20

Financial flexibility 1 50%

Factor 3: Financial Performance and Debt Profile

Gross operating balance / operating revenues (%) 3 6.64 12.5% 3.25 30% 0.98

Interest payments / operating revenues (%) 5 3.24 12.5%

Liquidity 1 25%

Net direct and indirect debt / operating revenues (%) 5 71.90 25%

Short-term direct debt / total direct debt (%) 3 13.70 25%

Factor 4: Governance and Management - MAX

Risk controls and financial management 1 1 30% 0.30

Investment and debt management 1

Transparency and disclosure 1

Idiosyncratic Risk Assessment 2.24(2)

Systemic Risk Assessment Aaa

Suggested BCA aa1

Source: Moody's Investors Service

5 15 May 2020 Province of British Columbia (Canada): Update to credit analysis

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Ratings

Exhibit 4

Category Moody's RatingBRITISH COLUMBIA, PROVINCE OF

Outlook StableIssuer Rating AaaSenior Unsecured AaaCommercial Paper P-1Other Short Term (P)P-1

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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