Prospects and challenges of Energy transition in Vietnam Presented by: Do Minh Tam – VSEA Coordinator

GreenID is a member of the Vietnam Sustainable Energy Alliance

12nd Jul 2017

GreenID is a Vietnam non profit organization (NPO) recognized by Decision 840/QD – LHH dated 27th December 2011

Vision Mission

Sustainable development for the citizens of Vietnam and the larger Mekong region based on widespread use of green, innovative technologies and methods as well as improved governance of the environment and natural resources

GreenID works to achieve fundamental change in the approach to sustainable development by promoting the transition to a sustainable energy system, good environmental governance and inclusive decision process

Introduction about GreenID

Content

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in Vietnam

3. Alternative solutions for the sustainable energy development: Oppotunities and challanges

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

Source: PDP VII Revised

Power demand forecast in 2020

Installed capacity by fuel Projected power production by fuel

Hydropower & pumped-

storage hydropower

30.1%

Coal power, 42.7%

Oil + Gas power, 14.9%

Small hydropower +Renewable energy, 9.9%

Nuclear power, 0.0%

Import, 2.4%

Hydropower & pumped-

storage hydropower,

25.2%

Coal power, 49.3%

Oil + Gas power, 16.6%

Small hydropower +

Renewable energy, 6.5%

Nuclear power, 0.0% Import, 2.4%

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

Source: PDP VII Revised

In 2030

Hydropower & pumped-

storage hydropower

16.9%

Coal power, 42.7%

Oil + gas power, 14.7%

Small hydropower +Renewable

energy, 21.0%

Nuclear power, 3.6%

Import, 1.2%

Installed capacity by fuel Projected power production by fuel

Hydropower & pumped-

storage hydropower,

12.4%

Coal power, 53.2%

Oil + gas power, 16.8%

Small hydropower +Renewable

energy, 10.7%

Nuclear power, 5.7%

Import, 1.2%

Coal-fired power plants Development Map

2016 2030

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

Coal power development in Vietnam

In PDPVII Revised

Year

Number of coal-fired

power plants

Coal power

capacity

Share of total

installed capacity

Total energy

generated from coal

power

Share in total

energy production

Domestic coal

Imported coal

MW % TWh %

Tons (in million)

Tons (in million)

2015 19 13157 33.4 56.400 34.3 33.3 0

2020 31 25787 42.7 130.932 49.3 39.021 24.495

2025 47 45152 47.3 220.165 55.0 38.905 56.257

2030 52 55252 42.7 304.478 53.3 44.433 85.243

Increase 3 times

Increase 4 times

Increase 5 times

Increase 4 times

Issues of Power Planning

• High demand projection

• Not taking into account Energy Efficiency potential in meeting demand

• Relying on fossil fuel, very modest RE

• Focus on supply side only

• Need to import coal for power generating (Est. ~ 2015)

• Vietnam Energy will depend gradually on import

• Climate Change target

Challenges for Energy security and

Sustainable Development

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

Efforts of CSOs in revised PDP

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

• Research components

• Policy recommendations

• Workshop & Stakeholders meeting

• VSEA experts’ comments

Increase RE: From 13 in PDP 7 to 27.2 GW ~ 21% Capacity (2030)

Reduce coal : - From 75GW to 55 GW ~ 42.7% capacity (2030) - Reduce 18 coal-fired power plants

Evaluations on coal development

1. Reducing demand: 18% less than approved PDP7

2. Reducing Pmax: about 20GW (90.6 GW againts~110MW)

3. Cancelling 18 new coal fired power plants, equivalent to 20 GW reduction in 2030

4. RE will be about 10.7% of power production in 2030 (excluding big hydropower)

5. Nuclear power is delayed and reduced

However, coal is still the biggest share in the power mix both in term of capacity and production, and expose High pollution risk

1. Status of Power Development in Vietnam

Impression of Energy production

2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN

Coal mine waste storage collapsed in 2015

Coal mine waste collaped in 2015

2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN

PM2.5 emission from coal-fired power plants in 2030

2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN

2. Impacts of coal-fired power plants in VN

2016 2030

26 plants 67 plants

13000 MW 55,300 MW Air Quality Report in Hanoi, 2016

Alternative solutions for

the sustainable energy development

Oppotunities and challanges

3. Alternative solutions for

the sustainable energy development

RE sources Current development Projects in the

pipeline Potential 2015 %

Small hydro 7,000 2,152 31% NA

Wind 7,000 135 2% ~ 6000 MW

Solar PV 20,000 5 0.03% ~ 1500 MW

Biomass 3,000 375 12.5% NA

Biogas 58 2 3.45% NA

Geothermal 220 0 0% NA

Municipal Waste

340 2.4 0.7% NA

Tidal 200 0 0% NA

Average 37,818 2,671 7%

Solar potentials

• Solar radiation map supported by Spanish Embassy

• Using GIS to identify the potential of solar power being able to connected to grid

• Total potential capacity: 22.000 MW, mostly in the South

Wind and Solar PV prices declining significantly

Source: IEA

Evaluations on RE development

Share of RE increased but insignificantly (5.2% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2020 and 21% in 2030).

Solar and wind power still only make up a modest share

Current renewable energy development in the world:

Renewable energy investment is two times higher than investment into fossil fuels in 2015 (UNEP report)

Technology is advancing

Price of technology reduces -> able to compete with fossil fuel energy

Energy Efficiency: Lack elaboration on this in PDP VII Revised

Power demand forecast: Can reduce to 33.8% compared to 18% suggested in PDP VII R evised (according to GreenID’s research)

Solutions to move forwards

Priority 1: accelerating Energy Efficiency solutions:

• GreenID’s EE scenarios and Power sector vision recommended power demand has potential to reduce up to 208 billion kWh in 2030.

• Demand side management may help to cut down 30,000 – 42,000 MW of total installed capacity (including 20,000 - 32,000 MW of coal-fired power and 10,000MW of nuclear power) in 2030 while fully meeting demand.

• Which saves 45 – 50 billion USD from investing in building new coal power plants

Priority 2: Restructure of economic model: prioritizing less energy consumption sectors, banning the energy intensity usage sector such as cement, steel…

Priority 3: Increasing higher RE share in the power mix, especially in the South

Source: GreenID, WB,

Collective Strength of

Vietnam Sustainable Energy Alliance (VSEA)

VSEA supports Vietnam transformation into a green growing economy by following the four main approaches

Renewable Energy Week

Watch Video about first REW 2016: http://bit.ly/REW2016

In November 2016, VSEA initiated the first Renewable Energy Week in Vietnam. It took place in Can Tho and Hanoi. The event attracted the participation of: • Southwest Steering Committee, MOIT,

VUSTA • Representatives from Mekong Delta • Community leaders • Developments partners • Speakers, from Germany, Netherlands,

Belgium, Phillippines, … • Media & journalists

Thanks for your attention!

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