Proposition 200Proposition 200

The So-Called “Public Safety The So-Called “Public Safety

First Initiative”First Initiative”

An OverviewAn Overview

By Russell LowesBy Russell Lowes

10/16/0910/16/09

What the proposal attempts to What the proposal attempts to do. . .do. . .

Prop. 200 would amend Chapter Prop. 200 would amend Chapter 25 of the City Charter to:25 of the City Charter to:

Require that the City spend additional Require that the City spend additional monies to increase police staffing monies to increase police staffing levels from between 1.9 and 2.0, to 2.4 levels from between 1.9 and 2.0, to 2.4 police for every 1,000 residents, and police for every 1,000 residents, and

Require the City to spend additional Require the City to spend additional monies to increase fire department monies to increase fire department staffing levels. staffing levels.

. . . However, it provides no funding for . . . However, it provides no funding for this increase. this increase.

Prop. 200 is an “unfunded Prop. 200 is an “unfunded mandate.”mandate.”

This proposal would not be legal to This proposal would not be legal to put on the ballot, were it put on the ballot, were it

presented to the State of Arizona.presented to the State of Arizona. Under State Law, any State initiative Under State Law, any State initiative

must have a matching funding source.must have a matching funding source. However, because this is a City proposal, However, because this is a City proposal,

and this requirement is not there; and this requirement is not there; proposals to the City of Tucson do not proposals to the City of Tucson do not yet require funding for their mandates. yet require funding for their mandates.

What does “unfunded mandate” What does “unfunded mandate” mean?mean?

. . . An unfunded mandate, in this . . . An unfunded mandate, in this case, forces the City of Tucson to case, forces the City of Tucson to direct funds toward two departments, direct funds toward two departments, without adequate funds for all or some without adequate funds for all or some of the other departments and of the other departments and programs. programs.

An unfunded mandate would cause An unfunded mandate would cause massive cuts in other services, or/and massive cuts in other services, or/and raise taxes. Even with a tax increase, raise taxes. Even with a tax increase, massive service cuts would be made in massive service cuts would be made in the short term, until taxes are in place.the short term, until taxes are in place.

How much money are we talking?How much money are we talking? According to City Staff, once it is fully According to City Staff, once it is fully

funded in five years, Prop. 200 would cost funded in five years, Prop. 200 would cost between $51 million and $67 million per between $51 million and $67 million per year.year.

Our total budget is $1.3 billion, but much of Our total budget is $1.3 billion, but much of that comes with restrictions for Tucson that comes with restrictions for Tucson Water and garbage fees, for example, and Water and garbage fees, for example, and cannot be siphoned off for general budget cannot be siphoned off for general budget discretionary use. discretionary use.

The remaining budget equals $420 million The remaining budget equals $420 million per year.per year.

Our police and fire budget equal $269 Our police and fire budget equal $269 million per year. million per year.

The remaining $152 million equals 36% of The remaining $152 million equals 36% of the $420 million. the $420 million.

Is the City of Tucson in a Position to Is the City of Tucson in a Position to Weather this Added Expense?Weather this Added Expense?

The City of Tucson staff is expecting at least a The City of Tucson staff is expecting at least a $46 million shortfall for the upcoming fiscal $46 million shortfall for the upcoming fiscal year. The City has fared better than many other year. The City has fared better than many other cities during this downturn, but the City Staff is cities during this downturn, but the City Staff is expecting great hardship in the next few years. expecting great hardship in the next few years.

Former Police Chief and current Deputy City Former Police Chief and current Deputy City Manager Richard Miranda said he’s concerned Manager Richard Miranda said he’s concerned about hiring the 80 officers a year required, on about hiring the 80 officers a year required, on top of the 55-60 we replace through attrition. “I top of the 55-60 we replace through attrition. “I don’t think [we] could handle the training and I don’t think [we] could handle the training and I don’t think we could get that many candidates don’t think we could get that many candidates at one time of the high caliber we’d be looking at one time of the high caliber we’d be looking for.” for.”

What is the impact of Prop. 200 on What is the impact of Prop. 200 on the remaining funds?the remaining funds?

Of the $152 million that remains for all Of the $152 million that remains for all other non-utility non-police & fire, the other non-utility non-police & fire, the extra cost of between $51 million and 67 extra cost of between $51 million and 67 million would reduce that $152 by 34-44%.million would reduce that $152 by 34-44%.

In other words, of the $152 million for In other words, of the $152 million for these services, we would now have only these services, we would now have only $85-101 million, less the previously $85-101 million, less the previously mentioned expected shortfall of $48 mentioned expected shortfall of $48 million for next year.million for next year.

Subtracting this shortfall brings funding Subtracting this shortfall brings funding for these services down to $37-53 million.for these services down to $37-53 million.

Is this money Is this money reallyreally needed for police needed for police and fire services?and fire services?

The City Council has agreed that more police The City Council has agreed that more police and fire services are needed over time, but and fire services are needed over time, but that these services need to be managed that these services need to be managed along with other services, like social services, along with other services, like social services, library, bus transit, road maintenance, etc. library, bus transit, road maintenance, etc.

With the current 1.9 to 2.0 police officers per With the current 1.9 to 2.0 police officers per 1000, we are over the average of 1.7 for the 1000, we are over the average of 1.7 for the West, according to the FBI.West, according to the FBI.

The City Council has committed to a plan and The City Council has committed to a plan and even though funding has been short, the even though funding has been short, the police and fire goals have already been met police and fire goals have already been met to-date – to-date – even without the fundingeven without the funding. .

Are the Police and Fire Departments Underperforming?

That question gets a resounding NO! Tucson Police Department statistics show a

12% decrease in violent crime from 2008 to 2009, with 55% fewer homicides this year.

Motor vehicle thefts have dropped 30%. Arsons have dropped 28%. Overall, violent and property crimes has

dropped 11%.

What about the longer trends?

Now you’ve seen the short-term crime trend improvements. What about the longer-term trends?

The Tucson Police Department’s website shows that the violent crime rate is down over 35% since 1995.

See this website address for this and the next two slides: http://tpdinternet.tucsonaz.gov/Stats/ucrrateall.pdf

How does Albuquerque, Tucson’s most similar southwestern city compare?

How many prisoners does the U.S. have compared to the rest of the world?

Some Qs to ponder. . .

Is it possible that by cutting other services that we will just add to the stresses in our community that will cause more crime to occur?

Is it possible that replacing social services, art funding and park funding will result in higher crime driving a cycle of never-ending ramp-ups in emergency service funding?

What are the other City departments What are the other City departments and programs that would be and programs that would be

affected?affected? LibrariesLibraries Parks & RecreationParks & Recreation Bus ServiceBus Service Social service funding for:Social service funding for:

Pre-Adolescent Parent Diversion ProgramPre-Adolescent Parent Diversion Program Happy HoursHappy Hours Choices for FamiliesChoices for Families Tucson Center for Adolescent ParentsTucson Center for Adolescent Parents KIDCOKIDCO Other programs for families, children and seniorsOther programs for families, children and seniors

. . .continued. . .continued

The bus transit system, including the The bus transit system, including the handicapped bus systemhandicapped bus system

The Tucson ZooThe Tucson Zoo Art fundingArt funding Traffic maintenance, filling potholes, Traffic maintenance, filling potholes,

maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. . . .and other departments and services. . . .and other departments and services.

But what about the other ripples of a non-But what about the other ripples of a non-funded mandate being forced on the City funded mandate being forced on the City of Tucson? of Tucson?

The County would be forced to use The County would be forced to use funding. . .funding. . .

. . .for law enforcement efforts, including . . .for law enforcement efforts, including the jail and juvenile detention. This would the jail and juvenile detention. This would cause a rippling effect, draining funds from cause a rippling effect, draining funds from the non-enforcement areas. the non-enforcement areas.

These areas include, again,These areas include, again, LibrariesLibraries Parks & RecreationParks & Recreation Social services, like PADP, KIDCO, Happy Social services, like PADP, KIDCO, Happy

Hours, Father to Father, etc. Hours, Father to Father, etc. Traffic maintenance, filling potholes, Traffic maintenance, filling potholes,

maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. Art fundingArt funding

All told, Pima County would have All told, Pima County would have to spend an additional. . .to spend an additional. . .

$28.4 million annually at first, increasing $28.4 million annually at first, increasing thereafterthereafter

$95 million for a near-future jail expansion.$95 million for a near-future jail expansion.

WHERE WILL THIS COME FROM?WHERE WILL THIS COME FROM?

First, there would be immediate cuts and then First, there would be immediate cuts and then there might be attempts to raise taxes. there might be attempts to raise taxes.

With costs of this magnitude, the County With costs of this magnitude, the County would have to get voter approval for a large would have to get voter approval for a large property tax increase. Without that property tax increase. Without that approval, service cuts would continue. approval, service cuts would continue.

What is being said about Prop. What is being said about Prop. 200:200:

Our City Manager, Mike Letcher, says that Our City Manager, Mike Letcher, says that “200 will be catastrophic for the City of “200 will be catastrophic for the City of Tucson.” Tucson.”

Our County Manager, Chuck Huckleberry, Our County Manager, Chuck Huckleberry, says that if Prop. 200 passes, “Property says that if Prop. 200 passes, “Property taxes will increase 8-10%.” He also said taxes will increase 8-10%.” He also said that if it passes it could cause Tucson to go that if it passes it could cause Tucson to go bankrupt, with Pima then going bankrupt, bankrupt, with Pima then going bankrupt, and it could even put more strain on the and it could even put more strain on the State of Arizona, causing bankruptcy. State of Arizona, causing bankruptcy.

For more information:For more information:

The City of Tucson has a website that has:The City of Tucson has a website that has:

Prop. 200 in its full versionProp. 200 in its full version

Independent Audit and Performance ComIndependent Audit and Performance Commission's (IAPC) Report to Mayor and Coumission's (IAPC) Report to Mayor and Council: Potential Costs Associated with Implencil: Potential Costs Associated with Implementation of the Public Safety First Initiativmentation of the Public Safety First Initiativee, and much more information. . ., and much more information. . .

. . . all at: www.TucsonAZ.gov/psfi. . . all at: www.TucsonAZ.gov/psfi