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Proposed New Education Measure for Scottish GVA Series
Richard Murray
Structure of Presentation
Section 1: Background– Specific Recommendations from Atkinson Review– Current Measure of Education Output
Section 2: New Quality-adjusted Output Measure
Section 3: Concluding Remarks
Specific Recommendations from Atkinson Review for Education
Improve the measurement of inputs Move towards an output based-approach Develop measures which track changes in
quality Extend coverage across whole of UK
Current Measure of Education Output
Different methodology for measuring education in Scottish & UK GDP series
Scottish GDP based on input=output approach using employment data
UK measure based on pupil numbers adjusted by GCSE performance
Section 2: New Quality-adjusted Output Measure for Education
Quantity & Quality Dimension of Output
Quantity of output to be measured by the number of pupils attending school
Quality dimension to reflect changes in the quality of education received by pupils
Rationale for Adjusting for Quality
Why adjust for quality?– To capture improvements in the education pupils
receive
How do you measure quality?– Ideally, the quality of teaching pupils receive– Difficult to measure this, though attainment
provides a useful proxy
Possible Attainment-based Approaches
Threshold basis Average Points Scored Value-added approach Combined threshold approach
Combined Threshold Approach
Aim to capture wide spectrum of attainment a pupil receives by end of secondary education
3 categories which capture all levels of attainment at school
Category 1 Highers & Advanced Highers
Category 2 Standard Grades (Credit level)
Category 3 Standard Grades (General & Foundation level)
Proportion of Pupils Gaining Qualifications
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3
Weighting the Different Levels of Attainment
Each category of attainment needs to be given a weight, relative to its contribution to total output
Inappropriate to use cost weights Expected future earnings provides a proxy
for the benefit pupils receive from education
Expected Future Earnings by Highest Qualification
Results show that higher qualifications lead to higher expected future earnings
Weightings of 48: 32: 20 for Categories 1: 2: 3
Expected future earnings =
Average earnings by highest qualification
Employment rate by highest qualification
X
Quality-adjusted Output Index
Methodology
Step 1: Differentiate S6 pupils by attainment & apply to all
pupils
Step 2: Apply a weight (based on expected future earnings) to
the attainment categories
Step 3: Calculate the weighted total & convert to index
Quality-adjusted Output for Scottish Education System
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Quality Quantity Quality-adjusted Output
Current Measure Vs Proposed New Measure
Comparison of existing and new education measures
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Ind
ex (
2003=100)
New measure
Existing measure
Overall Impact on GVA Series
Effect of new education measure upon total GVA
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Ind
ex (
2003
=100
)
New measure
Existing measure
Sensitivity Analysis
Examined different combinations of qualifications
Applied different weights by attributing part of the future earnings associated with those who go on to university
Overall, little impact on quality-adjusted output index
Section 3: Concluding Remarks
Limitations of New Measure
Unable to track changes in quality across each year group
Will take a number of years before investment influences the measure
Wider benefits of education are excluded Possibly not giving enough weight to high
attainment category
Other Possible Quality Measures
Alternative Methods for Measuring Quality
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1 or more Highers at end of S6 Standard Grades (1-2) at end of S4APS at end of S4 APS at end of S6Combined Threshold Approach
Alternative Combined Quality Indices
Other Possible Combined Quality Indices
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
