Proposed changes to RCS. Released for consultation ... · Web viewNative animal conservation will be integral to investments in the services all biodiversity contributes to the region’s

Proposed changes to RCS. Released for consultation February 2016

Ref no.

SECTION CURRENT TEXT PROPOSED CHANGES OR NEW TEXT REASONS FOR REVISION

1 Home page This strategy aims to strengthen the health and resilience of our region’s natural environment.

To do this, the strategy: Defines environmental assets that underpin healthy and

resilient ecosystems Assesses their current condition Describes measurable targets for their future condition,

bearing in mind the potential for future climate change Shows which organisations are leading the pursuit of each

target Shows where Government organisations, Councils and

communities can work together to achieve the targets.

Revise point 5: Provides maps and information to help Government

organisations, Councils and communities work together to plan action, pursue targets, learn and measure success.

Add a new point 6: Provides information to help organisations use adaptive

management planning, particularly as a climate change response.

Strengthens the description of the RCS as a strategy for collaboration

Introduces the RCS as a strategy for adaptive management.

2 About this strategy/regional overview/ Geography & climate

Geography & climateThis region is framed to the north-west, north and east with mountains and ranges. They contain escarpments and gorges, hills, valleys, plateaus and prominent summits which merge southward into foothills and plains. In the west the volcanic plains contain ancient eruption points, lava shields and floodplains. The plains in the east include reclaimed swamp lands of ancient lagoon deposits and dune fields.

The region has mild to warm summers with an average maximum temperature of around 22-24°C near the coast and in the ranges to the east and 25-27ºC in the Melbourne area and further inland. In winter, average maximum temperatures are mostly around 12-14ºC. Frosts occur inland, but are less common near the coast and in inner urban areas. Annual rainfall averaged across the region is 864 millimetres, but is less than 600 millimetres to the west of Melbourne and more than 1,400 millimetres in the Dandenong Ranges. Generally, rainfall is greatest in winter and spring. On average there are 135 days each year where at least 1 millimetre of rain falls.

Create 2 sections: ‘Geography’ and ‘Climate & Climate Change’

GEOGRAPHYThe Port Phillip & Western Port region comprises all the land that drains into Port Phillip Bay and Western Port. It totals approximately 1.3 million hectares.

Twenty percent of the region is urbanised. Intensive horticulture, grazing and cropping cover much of its rural land. Significant public land, conservation reserves and closed water supply catchments occupy much of the region’s perimeters on the Great Divide and Upper Yarra Catchment in the region’s north-east.

On peri-urban land and in ‘Green Wedge’ corridors abutting the urban sprawl, waste management facilities serve 4 million people and their industries alongside landuses from poultry farms to prisons, airports, quarries and hobby farms.

The environmental impacts of these landuses is seen in the fragile persistence of native animals and birds on land and in the region’s waterways.

Around 26,000 km of drains and 8,000 km of waterways carry urban and rural stormwater and runoff to the bays. Ultimately, the sustainable use of the region’s lands will be known by the state of Port Phillip Bay and Western Port.

Improve the Geography section as a ‘helicopter view’ of the region.

Provide a more detailed account of how the climate is changing and the implications of the changes.

3 About this strategy/regional overview/climate & Climate change(new separate page)

New separate section:CLIMATE & CLIMATE CHANGE

A ‘Mediterranean’ Climate’ has shaped this region’s natural and human history: Dry, warm to hot summers Wet, mild to cool winters. Rainfall is expected in March to May as the ‘autumn break’. Frequent winter rainfalls replenish soil moisture and maintain

vegetation and stream flows through the dry summers. Summer average maximum temperatures:

Create identified space in RCS for consideration of climate change

Page 1 of 31


Ref no.


22-24oC near the coast and ranges; 25-27oC in the urban area and inland. Winter average maximum temperatures: 12-14oC but higher in

urban areas. Frosts occur inland but rare in coastal and urban areas. Annual rainfall ranges from less than 600mm in the region’s west to

more than 1,400mm in the Dandenong Ranges.

This climate is changing. Average annual air temperatures increased by 0.8°C to 1.0oC across the region over the last century and more rapidly since 1960. High-confidence predictions show further temperature rises of similar magnitude by 2030. By 2050, cold years could be warmer than most of the current climate’s warm years.A general fall in mean annual rainfall has been observed since the mid-1970s. Rainfall losses have been most pronounced in Autumn-Winter. Predictions for rainfall losses are less certain but general and progressive losses in winter-spring rainfall are expected to continue.Soil moisture and catchment runoff are confidently predicted to decline; driven largely by changes to rainfall and evapotranspiration.Click HERE for detailed climate change predictions. (Hyperlink to be added. See Appendix for proposed text )

Climate change is likely to affect all parts of living systems and to multiply and complicate existing pressures. It challenges assumptions that natural resource management might be able to preserve present or restore past conditions.

4 About this strategy/vision for the future/native vegetation

In 2030, there will be extensive and diverse areas of permanent native vegetation maintained across the region's landscapes and being managed chiefly for conservation and environmental purposes.

Outside the areas of permanent native vegetation, adherence to the 'avoid, minimise and offset' approach to any clearing will be achieving a no net loss in the extent of native vegetation and its biodiversity values across the region.

A series of major 'Nature Links' will have been created, forming large north-south and east-west vegetation corridors, enabling species transit and improving ecosystem resilience to climate change and habitat fragmentation.

The contribution of native vegetation to the health and resilience of the region's environment will be widely recognised and highly valued. The extent, diversity, quality and connectedness of the native vegetation, and the careful management being provided for it, will ensure that when it is threatened or affected by fire, disease, drought, pest animals, weeds or other issues, it retains the ability to provide functions and services that benefit the community and economy.

In 2030, native vegetation conservation will be widely recognised as a vital investment in the health of the region's environment and the social and economic services it provides.

Extensive and diverse areas of permanent native vegetation will be maintained and managed chiefly for their natural values.

Other vegetation outside permanent reserves and mostly on private land will be managed to achieve no-net loss-outcomes for extent and biodiversity value.

'Nature Link' construction will create north-south and east-west vegetation corridors to respond to the pressures of habitat quality decline, fragmentation and the compounding effects of climate change.

Coordinated, adaptive management will be supported by monitoring of the effects of climate change and other pressures, management effectiveness, changed environmental and social conditions and decisions about whether goals should be revised.

This strategy sets targets that aim to: Maintain areas of Permanent Native Vegetation that will make

important contributions to the health and resilience of natural systems.

Achieve no net loss in the quantity/quality of Other Native

Changes proposed to improve clarity and flow-of-logic. Changes add the needs for coordination and monitoring as part of adaptive management and re-emphasise the wider social and economic rationale for conserving native vegetation.

Page 2 of 31


Ref no.


This strategy sets targets that aim to: Maintain areas of Permanent Native Vegetation that will make

important contributions to the health and resilience of natural systems.

Achieve no net loss in the quantity/quality of Other Native Vegetation across the landscape - locally wherever possible.

This strategy also identifies Potential Nature Links as opportunities for creating large-scale vegetation corridors and improving landscape connectivity.

Vegetation across the landscape – at local scales wherever possible.

This strategy also identifies Potential Nature Links as corridors where large-scale restoration and re-vegetation will improve landscape connectivity.

5 About this strategy/vision for the future/native animals

In 2030, the region's populations of native animal species will be diverse, healthy and resilient to threats.

The diversity of native reptile, fish, mammal, amphibian, and bird species will be stable, contributing to the overall health of the regional environment and enabling future generations to benefit from the native wildlife of the region.

Monitoring programs will be in place to regularly check the population health of 'indicator species', providing early warning of issues for the wider range of species.

The diversity, range and population health of native animal species, and the care and management being provided for them, ensures that when species are threatened by fire, drought, pests or other issues, they can endure and continue to benefit the ecosystems, community and economy.

The targets set by this strategy aim to: Maintain the diversity of native animal species that still inhabit

the region; and Stabilise or improve the health of populations of selected

'indicator species' predicted to reflect the health of other animals sharing their landscapes and threats.

In 2030, successful management of environments for all native animals will measurably improve the health of their populations and resilience to pressures and climate change. All the species known to exist in the region in 2013 will be observed in 2050.Native animal conservation will be integral to investments in the services all biodiversity contributes to the region’s natural values, communities and economy. These benefits will be widely recognised and valued.Monitoring of native animals will inform management responses to threats and pressures and the compounding effects of climate change. It will cover all species - populations that are ‘threatened’ in 2013 and those of ‘least concern’ to provide early warnings of conservation status decline and crises.

The targets set by this strategy aim to: Maintain the diversity of native animal species that still inhabit the

region; and Stabilise or improve the health of populations of selected 'indicator

species' predicted to reflect the health of other animals sharing their landscapes and threats.

Changes proposed to improve clarity and flow-of-logic. Changes add the needs for coordination and monitoring as part of adaptive management and re-emphasise the wider social and economic rationale for conserving native animals.

6 About this strategy/vision for the future/waterways & wetlands

In 2030, the health of the region’s rivers, creeks, estuaries and wetlands will be measurably improving.

Waterways and wetlands will make important contributions to the health and resilience of the region's environment, connecting diverse and thriving communities of native plants and animals. They will provide valued amenity for urban and rural areas and important places for communities to engage with their local environment.

Waterways and wetlands will be managed to provide sustainable environmental, economic and social values.

This Regional Catchment Strategy mirrors the Healthy Waterways Strategy developed by Melbourne Water. It sets targets for 'key waterway values'.

In 2030, measurable improvements in the health of the region’s rivers, creeks, estuaries and wetlands will continue to be achieved.

Waterways and wetlands will be habitat connecting corridors for diverse and thriving communities of native plants and animals. They will make important contributions to the health of the region's biodiversity and its resilience to threats and pressures, including climate change.

Allied to their economic values in water supply and drainage, waterways and wetlands will provide valued social amenity for urban and rural communities.

Waterway management will continue to be part of a coordinated region-wide investment to maximise the services all biodiversity contributes to the region’s natural values, communities and economy. These benefits will be widely recognised and valued.Coordinated, adaptive management will be supported by monitoring of

Changes proposed to improve clarity and flow-of-logic. Changes add the needs for coordination and monitoring as part of adaptive management and re-emphasise the wider social and economic rationale for conserving waterways and wetlands.

Page 3 of 31


Ref no.


To achieve its expected outcomes, the Healthy Waterways Strategy guides investment planning and priorities that aim to: Protect and improve riparian vegetation crucial to the

environmental and social values of waterways; Maintain and, where possible, improve the diversity and

populations of native species in the region’s waterways, wetlands and estuaries;

Improve water quality in waterways, wetlands and estuaries and protect the quality of receiving waters in Port Phillip Bay and Western Port.

Inform decisions about how environmental water entitlements can be best used to minimise the impacts of natural and human-made changes to stream-flows and drainage.

Protect and improve the features of waterways enjoyed for their aesthetic, landscape and cultural values and for active and passive recreation.

the effects of climate change and other pressures, management effectiveness, changed environmental and social conditions and decisions about whether goals should be revised.This Regional Catchment Strategy mirrors the Healthy Waterways Strategy developed by Melbourne Water. It sets targets for 'key waterway values'. The Healthy Waterways Strategy guides investment planning and priorities that aim to: Protect and improve riparian vegetation crucial to the

environmental and social values of waterways; Maintain and, where possible, improve the diversity and

populations of native species in the region’s waterways, wetlands and estuaries;

Improve water quality in waterways, wetlands and estuaries and protect the quality of receiving waters in Port Phillip Bay and Western Port.

Inform decisions about how environmental water entitlements can be best used to minimise the impacts of natural and human-made changes to stream-flows and drainage.

Protect and improve the features of waterways enjoyed for their aesthetic, landscape and cultural values and for active and passive recreation.

7 About this strategy/vision for the future/hinterland

In 2030, the large ring of rural and semi-rural Hinterland around urban Melbourne will continue to provide substantial benefits for the environment, community and economy.The landcapes in the Hinterland, mainly 'soft ground', will provide the region with: Native habitat that supports biodiversity, ecosystem health and

resilience Productive and valuable agriculture and local food security, and Natural and open landscapes for social and recreational benefit.The Hinterland's open landscapes, environmental benefits and opportunities for Melbourne's communities to connect with nature will be widely recognised and highly valued. They will be managed to ensure that future generations can also benefit from the ecosystem services they provide and the productivity of the land.

This strategy’s targets aim to preserve the current or practicable area of Hinterland in each of the 25 municipalities where it occurs.

In 2030, the ring of rural and semi-rural Hinterland around urban Melbourne will provide secure, measurable and valued benefits for their residents and the region’s communities:

Productive, diverse agriculture and local food security

Native habitats, biodiversity, ecosystem health and resilience

Economic values in water supply, drainage and flood mitigation.

Clean water, air and moderation of weather extremes.

Natural and open landscapes for social and recreational amenity

Opportunities for urban people to live close to nature and to experience rural landscapes and life.

Management of public land and collaborations with private landholders will aim to maximise the hinterland’s health and benefits for future generations.

Coordinated, adaptive management of hinterland will be supported by monitoring hinterland values, the effects of climate change and other pressures, management effectiveness, changed environmental and social conditions and decisions about whether goals should be revised.This strategy’s targets aim to preserve the current or practicable area of Hinterland in each of the 25 municipalities where it occurs.

Changes proposed to improve clarity and flow-of-logic. Changes add the needs for coordination and monitoring as part of adaptive management and re-emphasise the wider social and economic rationale for conserving hinterland values.

8 About this strategy/vision for the future/coasts

In 2030, the region’s coasts will retain substantial environmental values.

In 2030, the region’s coasts will retain substantial environmental values.

Management of beaches, inshore reefs and rocky shores, mudflats, estuaries, wetlands and dunes will continue to sustain their

Changes proposed to improve clarity and flow-of-logic. Changes add the needs for coast-

Page 4 of 31


Ref no.


The beaches, reefs and rocky shores, mudflats, estuaries, wetlands and dunes will be managed to protect their environmental values and ensure there is sustainable use by the millions of visitors and residents that enjoy them each year.

The contribution of the coastal areas to the health and resilience of the region's environment will be widely recognised and highly valued. The maintenance of native vegetation and other environmental features of the coast will ensure that, when threatened or affected by fire, pests, sea level rise, overuse, pollution or other issues, the coasts will retain the ability to provide functions and services that benefit the community and economy.

This strategy sets targets that aim to at least maintain the current extent and quality of native vegetation on the region's coasts.

environmental values and enjoyment for millions of residents and visitors.

Parts of the coast will provide connecting habitat corridors for diverse and thriving communities of native plants and animals.

Coastal management will continue to be part of coordinated coastal-catchment investments to maximise the services these connected environments contribute to natural values, communities and economy. These benefits will be widely recognised and valued.

Coordinated monitoring will inform management responses to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, overuse, pollution and other pressures and and decisions about whether goals should be revised.

This strategy sets targets that aim to at least maintain the current extent and quality of native vegetation on the region's coasts. It advocates the need for a wider monitoring system to better measure and track the environmental values of coasts.

catchment coordination and monitoring, as provided for in the Central Region Coastal Plan, and as part of adaptive management. They re-emphasise the wider social and economic rationale for conserving coastal values.

9 About this strategy/vision for the future/port philip bay western port

In 2030, Port Phillip Bay and Western Port will remain healthy and iconic natural features of this region. They will have very good water quality, support diverse plant and animal life, provide valuable ecosystem services such as nutrient recycling, and be visited and used by millions of people every year.

The contribution of the bays to the health and resilience of the region's environment will be widely recognised and highly valued. The water quality and health of the marine ecosystems, and the careful management and stewardship being provided for them, ensures that when they are threatened or affected by pollution, pests, climate change or other issues, they retain their ability to provide functions and services that benefit the community and economy.

This strategy sets targets that aim to at least maintain current water quality in each the Port Phillip Bay and Western Port segments defined by Victoria’s State Environment Protection Policy.

No change proposed

10 About this strategy/policy context/Victorian Government

This Strategy responds to Victorian Government policy, strategy and priorities by: Describing and setting targets for the future condition of native

vegetation, native animals, waterways and wetlands, hinterland, coasts, Port Phillip Bay and Western Port

Describing threats and barriers to the attainment of the targets Providing for monitoring, reporting and continual improvement.Relevant Victorian Government policy and strategy: Aboriginal Heritage Act 2006 A Cleaner Yarra River and Port Phillip Bay - A plan of action Biosecurity Strategy for Victoria Catchment and Land Protection Act 1994 Code of Practice for Bush Fire Management on Public Land 2012 Code of Practice for Timber Production 2007 Conservation, Forests and Lands Act 1987

Delete Victoria’s Native Vegetation Management Framework 2012 (does not exist)Delete Victorian Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2013 (does not exist)Replace Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008 with Victorian Coastal Strategy 2014Delete Victorian Soil Health Strategy (does not exist)Replace Port Phillip & Western Port Coastal Action Plan with 'Central regional Coastal Plan 2015-202 and update the web-link.

Revisions correct and update lists and web links to Victorian and Australian Government, regional and local government policy and strategy. Additional links are proposed to new and evolving climate change policy and directions.

Page 5 of 31

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/land-management/dse-soil-health-strategy

http://www.vcc.vic.gov.au/page/victorian-coastal-strategy-2014



http://www.vic.gov.au/news/biodiversity-conservation-strategy.html

http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/australias-native-vegetation-framework

http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/Domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/LTObjSt6.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/736DC28FAC12D7EECA257A2900223C54/$FILE/87-41a082bookmarked.pdf

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/forestry-and-land-use/timber-production/timber-harvesting-regulation/code-of-practice-for-timber-production

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/179783/Code-of-Practice-for-Bushfire-Management-on-Public-Land.pdf

http://www.ppwcma.vic.gov.au/Resources/PublicationDocuments/36/Catchment%20and%20Land%20Protection%20Act%201994%20-%20Version%20040.pdf

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/agriculture-and-food/biosecurity/biosecurity-strategy

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/environment-and-wildlife/environmental-partnerships/a-cleaner-yarra-river-and-port-phillip-bay

http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/Domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/PubStatbook.nsf/51dea49770555ea6ca256da4001b90cd/481F4F0770858034CA257169001D1F4A/$FILE/06-016a.pdf


Ref no.


Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Forests Management in Victoria

Environmental Partnerships Statement Environment Protection Act 1970 Flora and Fauna Guarantee Act 1988 Forests Act 1958 Heritage Act 1995 Heritage Rivers Act 1992 National Parks Act 1975 Permitted Clearing of Native Vegetation - Biodiversity

Assessment Guidelines 2013 Plan Melbourne: Metropolitan Planning Strategy 2014 Regional Forest Agreement s Relevant State Forest Management Plans Sustainability Charter for Victoria's State Forests Sustainable Forests (Timber) Act 2004 Victorian Climate Change Act 2010 Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan Victorian Waterway Management Strategy V ictorian Soil Health Strategy Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008 Victoria’s Native Vegetation Management Framework 2012 Victorian Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2013

11 About this strategy/policy context/Australian Government

Relevant Australian Government policy and strategy: Environment Protection & Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 Australia’s Biodiversity Conservation (ABC) Strategy 2010-13 The Convention on Wetlands of International Importance National Forest Policy Statement 1992

Add Australia’s Native Vegetation Framework 2012 Correct and update the lists and web links to policy and strategy for the Victorian and Australian Governments, regional and local government. Include new and evolving policy and directions relevant to climate change.

12 About this strategy/policy context/ Regional Strategies and Action Plans

Relevant regional-scale policy and strategy Port Phillip & Westernport Healthy Waterways Strategy Port Phillip & Western Port Regional Invasive Plants and Animals

Strategy Port Phillip & Western Port Regional Salinity Report Port Phillip & Western Port Coastal Action Plan (in preparation)

Repair broken web-links Correct and update the lists and web links to policy and strategy for the Victorian and Australian Governments, regional and local government. Include new and evolving policy and directions relevant to climate change.

13 About this strategy/policy context/Local Strategies and Action Plans

Relevant local government policy, strategy and planning Municipal Strategic Statements Land use planning schemes Biodiversity Strategies and Plans Reserve Management Plans Stormwater and Wastewater Management Policy & Plans Coastal Management Plans Green Wedge Management Plans

No change proposed Correct and update the lists and web links to policy and strategy for the Victorian and Australian Governments, regional and local government. Include new and evolving policy and directions relevant to climate change.

14 About this strategy/Strategy development

2013: Refinement and approvalFollowing public consultation and subsequent refinement of the strategy, the Regional Catchment Strategy was submitted to the Victorian Minister for Environment & Climate Change and the Victorian Minister for Water for assessment.

2013-2014: Refinement and submission for approvalFollowing public consultation and refinement, the Regional Catchment Strategy (RCS) was submitted to the Victorian Minister for Environment & Climate Change and the Victorian Minister for Water for assessment.

2014: Approval

Update the RCS record of review and development.

Page 6 of 31

http://www.ppwcma.vic.gov.au/publications/publications.aspx



http://consultation.melbournewater.com.au/document/index/1


http://www.agriculture.gov.au/forestry/policies/statement

http://www.ramsar.org/cda/en/ramsar-home/main/ramsar/1_4000_0__

http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/strategy/index.html

http://www.environment.gov.au/epbc/

http://www.vic.gov.au/news/biodiversity-conservation-strategy.html



http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/land-management/dse-soil-health-strategy

http://www.water.vic.gov.au/environment/rivers/river-health-strategy

http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/Victorian-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Plan

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/conservation-and-environment/climate-change/victorian-climate-change-act-2010

http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/Domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/LTObjSt4.nsf/DDE300B846EED9C7CA257616000A3571/BA9F0621083724F6CA257761003282D8/$FILE/04-48a012.pdf

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/forestry-and-land-use/forest-management/forest-sustainability/sustainability-charter-for-victorias-state-forests

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/forests/publications/plans/forest-management-plans

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/forests/managing-our-forests/management-framework/regional-forest-agreements

http://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/

http://parkweb.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/315933/National-Parks-Act-1975.pdf

http://www.environment.gov.au/epbc/notices/assessments/2010/5477/ref-2.pdf

http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/LTObjSt2.nsf/d1a8d8a9bed958efca25761600042ef5/9eba9189708477dfca25776100217b7e/$FILE/95-93a042.pdf

http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_notes/LDMS/LTObject_Store/LTObjSt2.nsf/d1a8d8a9bed958efca25761600042ef5/562bb936081e8517ca257761001f3ca5/$FILE/58-6254a095.pdf

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/environment-and-wildlife/threatened-species-and-communities/flora-and-fauna-guarantee-act-1988

http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/about-us/legislation/acts-administered-by-epa

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/environment-and-wildlife/environmental-partnerships

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/forestry-and-land-use/forest-management/forest-sustainability/criteria-and-indicators

http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/forestry-and-land-use/forest-management/forest-sustainability/criteria-and-indicators


Ref no.


Approval of the strategy was made by the Victorian Minister for Environment & Climate Change and the Victorian Minister for Water and published in the Victorian Government Gazette on the 6th November 2014.

2015: AmendmentsThe first amendments to the RCS were approved by the Minister for Environment, Climate Change and Water in August 2015. These updated RCS references to altered Departmental names.

A second set of proposed RCS changes was listed in early November 2015 for the statutory 4-week period of public consultation. Proposed changes included: Addition of new information about predicted climate change effects

on RCS assets; Revised vision statements to include climate change as a driver for

monitoring, review and adaptive management; Additional RCS Leader organisations, their targets and

management commitments; Revisions to asset and target descriptions to strengthen the

strategy’s responses to climate change; New interactive map layers about the sensitivity of RCS assets to

climate change; A new guide to Planning for Climate Change under the Strategy’s

Planning & Action section. Improved text throughout for clarity and brevity.

After consultation, final changes were considered by the Port Phillip & Westernport Catchment Management Authority and submitted to the Minister for Environment, Climate Change and Water in December 2015.

15 About this strategy/Summary of Objectives, Priorities and Management Measures

Summary of Objectives & Priorities .. is followed by ..Management measuresVarious measures are embedded in this strategy to generate and foster a shared vision for future environmental condition, commitment from key partners, collaboration and effective action. They include:

developing the strategy as a website so it is always accessible and up-to-date for Government organisations, Councils, non-government organisations, Landcare and community groups, farmers, landholders, the agricultural and education sectors and the broader public and so it more effectively promotes improved use of land and water resources;

establishing SMART targets for environmental condition that are agreed with the organisations that will have lead roles in attaining them;

securing ‘statements of commitment’ from the organisations

Change page title to: Objectives, Priorities and Management Measures (i.e. delete the words, ‘Summary of’.)

Objectives & Priorities No text revisions proposed.

Management Measures:Actions are embedded in this strategy to foster shared vision and objectives and growing commitments to adaptive planning, collaborative action and shared learning:

Maintain the strategy as a website – accessible to its leaders, responsive to change and a model for adaptive planning and improvement;

Use the strategy to describe a standard set of assets and measures and SMART targets for what strategy leaders aim to achieve;

Encourage strategy leader accountability by publishing voluntary, self-determined ‘Statements of Commitment’;

Signal this page is important and not just a summary.

Update the list of actions this RCS aims to legitimise and facilitate in response to what PPWCMA has learned since 2013.

Improve brevity

Page 7 of 31


Ref no.


that will have lead roles in attaining the targets;

progressively enhancing the environmental condition data and the interactive mapping through ground-truthing, improvement of mapping layers and addition of new layers;

assisting Councils and other organisations to incorporate the mapping layers into their own systems to aid local planning and day-to-day decision-making;

establishing a formal Alliance of key stakeholder organisations to generate and foster partnerships;

reporting on major actions being undertaken across the region by various organisations;

establishing monitoring arrangements for the condition of all of the environmental assets;

undertaking regular assessment of environmental condition; and

publicly reporting at regular intervals on environmental condition and progress towards the targets.

Make opportunities for all land, water and nature conservation managers to learn, respect and adopt the deep understanding and connection to the land held by its Traditional Owners.

Find ways to measure and set conservation goals for the human health, wellbeing and cultural values of nature in urban environments;

Provide learning about adaptive management planning, especially in the context of responding to climate change.

Pursue better monitoring of environmental asset conditions;

Publish reports and stories about how strategy leaders are pursuing their targets;

Progressively improve data, information and maps to support strategy leaders’ decision-making and action;

Undertake regular assessments and reporting on environmental condition and progress towards the targets.

Assist Councils and other organisations to incorporate RCS objectives and asset-map layers into their own spatial-planning and decision-making systems;

Establish a Regional Strategy Forum to support advocacy, create common solutions and foster partnerships.

16 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Introduction

Paragraph 7 says:Invasive weeds and climate change are the major barriers to achieving these targets. Weed invasions drive structural declines in native vegetation and damage their habitat qualities. A drier, warmer climate is expected to cause further fragmentation and decline in many vegetation communities and amplify the pressures posed by weeds and increasing fire frequency and intensity.

Add 1 new idea to paragraph 7: … while coastal vegetation and wetlands are vulnerable to rising sea levels.

Make the introduction to climate change pressures more complete.

17 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Permanent Native Vegetation/Targets and Leadership pages.

Add Cardinia Shire Council as a new RCS partnerAsset: 413.5ha of native vegetation across 10 reserves with average quality measure of 300.39 habitat hectares.Target: At least 413.5ha of native vegetation with an average quality score of 300.39 habitat hectares to be retained in the Cardinia Council area to 2030.Leadership statement: The Cardinia Shire Council considers this target important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to its attainment. The Cardinia Shire Council recognises collaboration and coordination amongst numerous organisations is required to achieve this target and will play a lead role by generating and fostering the necessary partnerships.Mike Ellis, General Manager of the Assets and Services DivisionAdd this information to interactive map layers

Recognise Cardinia Shire Council assets and targets and improve RCS completeness.

18a Assets & Targets/Native

Add City of Kingston as a new RCS partnerAsset: 34.6ha of native vegetation across 16 reserves.

Recognise Yarra Ranges Council assets and targets and improve RCS

Page 8 of 31


Ref no.


Vegetation/Permanent Native Vegetation/ Targets and Leadership pages

Target: Ensure all 34.6ha of native vegetation, and its quality, to be retained in reserves and parks through to 2035 as per One Vision-Council Plan.Leadership statement: Kingston City Council considers this target important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to its attainment. Council highly values the significant habitat and species in its natural areas and recognises that they make an important contribution to the biodiversity of the City and of the Port Phillip and Western Port Region. This target will be achieved through the implementation of Kingston’s Biodiversity Strategy and the implementation of management plans for individual reserves and through the engagement of the community in the protection and enhancement of these reserves. Tony Collins, Parks & Recreation Team Leader

completeness.

18b Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Hinterland/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add City of Kingston as a new RCS partnerAsset: 616ha Open SpaceTarget: At least 616ha of open space to be retained/maintained in the Kingston City Council area to 2035 as per One Vision Council-Plan.Leadership statement: The Kingston City Council considers this target important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to its attainment. Kingston City Council recognises that collaboration and coordination with the local community is required to achieve this target and will play a lead role through fostering community engagement.Tony Collins, Parks & Recreation Team Leader

18c Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Other Native Vegetation/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add City of Kingston as a new RCS partnerAsset: Tree Canopy with 90,000 treesTarget: Ensure existing tree population and its quality, be retained and where possible increased in reserves/parks/streetscapes through to 2035 as per One Vision-Council Plan.Leadership statement: Kingston City Council considers this target important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to its attainment. Council highly values the urban forest and recognises that it makes an important contribution to the biodiversity of the City and of the Port Phillip and Western Port Region. This target will be achieved through the planting and establishment of approximately 2-3,000 trees p.a. throughout streets and reserves. Tony Collins, Parks & Recreation Team Leader

18d Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Potential Nature Links/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add City of Kingston as a new RCS partnerNature Links/Living Links: Dandenong Ranges to Port Phillip BayProjects: Port Phillip Bay Foreshore, Mordialloc Creek, Patterson River, Karkarook Park to Braeside Park and Long Beach Trail.Leadership statement: Kingston City Council partners with other Councils, agencies and local communities to improve large-scale connectivity between and around existing vegetation.Tony Collins, Parks & Recreation Team Leader

19 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Other Native Vegetation/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add City of Moonee Valley as a new RCS partner:Asset: 40ha of Permanent Native Vegetation across 100 patches. Target: Maintain the extent and enhance the quality of these conservation assets through to 2030Leadership statement: Moonee Valley is committed to achieving these

Recognise City of Moonee Valley assets and targets and improve RCS completeness.

Page 9 of 31


Ref no.


targets as reflected in its Urban Ecology Strategy 2014 adopted by Council in 2014. Michelle GoodingConservation Officer, July 2015Add this information to interactive map layers.

20 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Permanent Native Vegetation/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add Frankston City Council as a new RCS partner:Asset: 366 hectares across 56 reserves. (Categorised as 84 ha in Retention Zones; 183 ha in Restoration Zones; 99 ha in Rehabilitation Zones)Targets: Maintain the 84ha of native vegetation in retention zones at its

2015 condition to 2020. Improve the quality of at least 10ha of native vegetation in

restoration zones sufficiently to include it in retention zones by 2020.

Improve the quality of at least 20ha of native vegetation in rehabilitation zones sufficiently to add it to restoration zones by 2020.

Statement of Commitment:Frankston City Council considers these targets important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to their attainment.Council highly values the significant habitat and species in its reserves and recognises their important contribution to the biodiversity of the City and the Port Phillip and Westernport Region. These targets will be achieved through the preparation and implementation of Frankston’s Biodiversity Action Plan, implementation of management plans for individual reserves and by engaging the community in the protection and enhancement of these reserves. Michael Papageorgiou Manager Planning & Environment

Add this information to interactive map layers.

Recognise Frankston City Council assets and targets and improve RCS completeness.

21 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Other Native Vegetation/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add Frankston City Council as a new RCS partner:Asset: Other Native Vegetation. (2015 extent to be determined)Target: No net loss is achieved regionally whenever any of the existing ‘other native vegetation’ in the Frankston City Council area is cleared and where a planning permit has been issued and where a planning permit has been issued.

Statement of Commitment:Frankston City Council considers this target important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to its attainment.As both the Planning Authority and a Responsible Authority under the Planning and Environment Act 1987, Frankston City will work with State Government, developers and other relevant stakeholders to identify opportunities to meet no net loss by avoiding, minimising or offsetting the clearance of native vegetation. It will also work with private land

Page 10 of 31


Ref no.


managers to promote sustainable land management practices across the municipality.Michael Papageorgiou Manager Planning & Environment

Asset: Tree canopy cover within the municipality (2015 extent to be determined)Target: Increase tree canopy cover of the municipality

Statement of Commitment:Frankston City Council considers this target important and achievable. It is intent on and will contribute to its attainment.To foster this target we are focused on participation with community and collaboration with committed organisations.Michael Papageorgiou Manager Planning & Environment

Add this information to interactive map layers.22 Assets &

Targets/Native Vegetation/Other Native Vegetation/ Targets and Leadership pages

Add Trust for Nature as a new RCS Partner:Asset: 3820.06 hectares across 241 patches.Target: Maintain the extent and improve the quality of each property in conservation reserves and under perpetual conservation agreements with landowners and increase the extent of strategic privately protected areas through to 2030.Statement of Commitment: Trust for Nature considers this target important and achievable, and recognises collaboration and coordination is important for its attainment. This target will be achieved through sharing resources and expertise in partnership with the PPWCMA, DEWLP, Local Government Authorities, Landcare, Landholders and all other relevant stakeholders on private land. Trust for Nature will play a leading role in protecting privately owned areas with important natural values, including native vegetation, wetlands, threatened species and wildlife corridors. Trust for Nature will contribute its philanthropic trust capability; private land management and stewardship expertise as well as Statewide Conservation Plan data for this purpose. Victoria Marles, CEODr Doug Robinson, Regional Operations Manager.Ben Cullen, Regional Manager, Port Phillip & Westernport.

Add this information to interactive map layers.

Recognise the assets and targets contained in Trust for Nature covenants and improve RCS completeness.

23 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Permanent Native Vegetation/ Targets page

Table of ‘placeholders’ for councils that are not yet RCS partners. Delete this table. Improve clarity. This table was a ‘placeholder’ in an earlier draft. It is not used and RCS users say it is confusing.

Page 11 of 31

Targets for 'Other Native Vegetation' in Council areasTarget Council

areaNo net loss is achieved whenever any of the existing 'Other Native Vegetation' is cleared.

Banyule

No net loss is achieved whenever any of the existing 'Other Native Vegetation' is cleared.

Bass Coast

This format is repeated as a ‘placeholder’ for each council in the region.


Ref no.


24 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Pressures/Climate change and sea level rise

Increased average temperatures, greater evaporation and lower rainfall are likely to amplify the pressures on native vegetation posed by weeds and fire. A drier, warmer climate is expected to drive decline in many existing vegetation communities.Drought tolerant native species may replace existing vegetation in some areas and dominance by drought tolerant weeds and exotics is a real possibility. How changed vegetation will support the current diversity of native animals is unknown.Increasing fire frequency and intensity can be expected in the native vegetation protected in National and State Parks on the region’s eastern, northern and western boundaries.

A table, ‘Expected climate changes’ is duplicated here

Coastal vegetation on Western Port and Port Phillip Bay is vulnerable to predicted sea level rise. Rising sea level means shrinking coastal zones which will make protection of coastal vegetation more challenging particularly in populated areas.

There is much uncertainty about future climate change impact, but the consequences of not planning for it could be devastating.

Climate change is expected to amplify existing pressures on native vegetation by exposing it to:

Increased long-term average temperatures Increased hot-day temperatures Lower and more erratic rainfall Higher evaporation Lower soil moisture Increased fire-weather frequency and intensity. Sea level rise.

Click HERE for detailed climate change predictions. (Hyperlink to be added. See Appendix for proposed text )

A drier, warmer climate is expected to drive decline in many existing vegetation communities. Drought tolerant native species may replace existing vegetation in some areas and dominance by drought tolerant weeds and exotics is a real possibility. How changed vegetation will support the current diversity of native animals is unknown.Where dispersal is possible, climate change could drive distribution shifts by native vegetation communities. Dispersal could be at the expense of other resident species.Communities could be made locally extinct where dispersal is not possible. Vegetation dispersal will be governed by complex and uncertain factors; the rate and intensity of climate change, soils, topography, aspect, the presence of supporting animals and microorganisms. Existing vegetation could be replaced by drought-tolerant native species or drought-tolerant weeds and exotics.How and if changed vegetation could support the current diversity of native animals is unknown.Coastal vegetation on Port Phillip Bay and Western Port is vulnerable to sea level rise. Shrinking coastal margins will make protecting coastal vegetation difficult, particularly where housing, roads and other developments compete for coastal land.

Improve the RCS description of climate change effects in response to the latest research and predictionsProvide information that more directly supports planning and management decisions.

25 Assets & Targets/Native Vegetation/Pressures

Pressures on native vegetationThis page describes pressures on native vegetation across the Port Phillip & Western Port region. They are barriers to achieving this strategy’s targets. Planning and action will need to find ways to minimise their effects.The region’s native vegetation faces five main pressures:

(5 drop-down sections follow)The condition of native vegetation across the region has been assessed (Method & Condition). Lead organisations are committed to addressing the pressures to target attainment. Arrangements are in place to monitor and report on progress.

Add this text to the bottom of the ‘Pressures’ page under the drop-down menus. Native vegetation futuresPlanning and action aim to minimise the effect of these pressures. But climate change will compound them and make it less likely we can restore past conditions or hold environments in their 2015 state. Climate change poses many possible futures and an imperative to plan and manage towards those we desire and away from those we do not. Possible futures for native vegetation by 2090 could include:

(The current RCS Objective) More than 500,000 hectares of permanent, high quality native vegetation will provide habitat for native species and environmental health and resilience across

Better describe pressures by showing their implications for the future. Emphasise the potential effects of climate change.Use this to signal that adaptive planning as an important part of the RCS.

Page 12 of 31

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/native-vegetation/monitoring-reporting/?l1=0&l2=0&l3=6

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/native-vegetation/targets/?l1=0&l2=0&l3=3

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/native-vegetation/leadership/?l1=0&l2=0&l3=4

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/native-vegetation/current-condition/?l1=0&l2=0&l3=2

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/native-vegetation/method/?l1=0&l2=0&l3=1


Ref no.


the region. About half the native vegetation present in 2015 will persist in

good condition and extent. Much will be in transition to drought-tolerant species but likely to retain most social and economic values. Many smaller 2015 remnants will be replaced by less diverse drought-tolerant natives and exotics.

75% of the permanent native vegetation present in 2015 will be in poor, condition. Private land-use will further fragment ‘good’ patches and they will decline. Grasslands and grassy woodlands will have almost disappeared. Mangroves, saltmarsh and coastal wetlands will survive in patches on the Bays where coastal retreat has been possible.

Nearly all the 2015 native vegetation will be in poor condition and/or advanced transition to low-diversity mixes of drought-tolerant natives and exotics. Frequent fire is particularly damaging. 2015 habitat values have been lost across the region except in the least sensitive vegetation types.

The RCS provides an Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink) as a critical response to these pressures. The present condition of native vegetation across the region has been assessed (Method & Condition). Lead organisations are committed to addressing the pressures to target attainment. Arrangements are in place to monitor and report on progress.

26 Assets & Targets/Native animals/Pressures/Climate Change

Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing us today. Without action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for a changing climate, the direct and indirect impacts will have major adverse effects on the environment, our society and our economy.

By 2030, average annual temperatures in the Port Phillip & Western Port region are expected to be around 0.8°C warmer. The greatest seasonal increases are expected in summer (0.9°C). The annual average number of hot days (days over 30°C) is also expected to increase.

Reductions in the total average annual rainfall of around 4% are expected, with the greatest percentage reductions occurring in spring (7%).

Increases in potential evaporation and reductions to relative humidity are expected to contribute to drier conditions. At the same time, small increases (0.9%) in solar radiation are expected. There will be little change in average wind speeds, but any decreases will most likely occur in autumn.

By 2070, further increases in temperature are expected. At the same time, the average frequency of hot days will continue to increase and rainfall totals will continue to drop. Warming is likely to be greatest in the summer, while greatest reductions in rainfall are likely to occur in

Climate change is expected to affect all parts of living systems. It will multiply and complicate existing pressures on animals by exposing them to:

Increased long-term average temperatures Increased hot-day temperatures Lower and more erratic rainfall Higher evaporation Lower soil moisture Increased fire-weather frequency and intensity. Declining and more erratic stream flows. Sea level rise and ocean acidification.


Significant long-term biodiversity declines are likely. There is evidence that Australian fauna and flora are already responding to climate changes.

Likely climate change effects on native animals include: Changes in species’ genetics, abundances and distributions Changes in the relationships between species; New animal communities arising from the ways individual

Improve the RCS description of climate change effects in response to the latest research and predictions and in ways that more directly support planning and management decisions.

Page 13 of 31







Ref no.


the spring.

Conditions will become increasingly drier as potential evaporation continues to increase and relative humidity decreases.

The table, ‘Expected climate changes’ is duplicated here

Decreases in rainfall and higher evaporation rates will mean less soil moisture and less water for rivers. Average annual runoff in the Yarra River is expected to decrease by as much as 20% by 2030, while the Bunyip, Maribyrnong and Werribee Rivers are expected to decrease by between 5% and 30%. By 2070, decreases in runoff to all four river systems could be between 5% and 50%+.

Lower flows and higher temperatures may also reduce water quality within the catchment and create a more favourable environment for potentially harmful algal blooms. Greater bushfire activity could temporarily contaminate water catchments with sediments and ash.

Global sea levels are projected to rise between 0.18 to 0.59 m by 2095, with a possible additional contribution from ice sheet melts of 0.1 to 0.2 m.

During this century, the Victorian coastline can expect greater inundation and erosion from sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm events. The marine environment will also be impacted by increased sea temperatures, changing sea currents and acidification of the ocean.

Sea level rise combined with increased storm events and storm surges will result in damaging waves, wind and flooding, erosion and damage to infrastructure and coastal and marine ecosystems.

A storm surge is elevated sea level caused by a low pressure system and intense winds. A storm surge will have maximum impact when combined with a high or king tide. Storm surges are likely to occur more frequently due to changed wind patterns, rainfall and sea surface temperatures. Consequently, erosion and inundation, already a feature of some parts of Victoria’s coast, may worsen with climate change.

Climate change is expected to result in shorter, drier winters which have significant impacts on Victoria’s and the region’s unique alpine region and the plant and animal species that live there, many of which are already endangered. Species which are adapted to the highest elevations and coldest environments will have nowhere to retreat to as the climate warms. Reductions in snow cover, increased risk of bushfires and invasion of weeds and other pests will also have significant impacts. Species living on Lake Mountain, which is on the boundary of the region, are particularly vulnerable due to its low elevation.

species respond to climate change; Changes in natural system structures, functions and

compositions; Changes in the ways animals live with human land and water

uses across landscapes.

This text derived from Dunlop, Parris, Ryan & Kroon; Climate-ready conservation objectives: A scoping study, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility; 2013.

Page 14 of 31


Ref no.


At higher elevations a reduction in the snow season duration by about 25% could be experienced but at lower elevations more significant reductions are likely (up to 60%). Impacts on peak snow depth are expected to follow a similar pattern with more moderate impacts expected at higher elevations. There is also a likelihood that maximum snow depth will occur earlier in the season under warmer conditions.

The distribution, abundance, behaviour and the timing of events such as migration or breeding of various species may alter. The most susceptible species will be those with restricted or specialised habitat requirements, poor dispersal abilities or small populations.

Climate change will also have indirect impacts on biodiversity. There may be increased pressure from competitors, predators, parasites, diseases and disturbances (such as bushfire or drought).

It will also influence the composition of ecosystems and their distribution by altering water flows in rivers and wetlands and the occurrence of bushfires, snow and floods. Climate change is likely to amplify existing threats such as habitat loss and impacts of invasive species.

27 Add this text to the bottom of the ‘Pressures’ page under the drop-down menus. Native vegetation futuresPlanning and action aim to minimise the effect of these pressures. But climate change will compound them and make it less likely we can restore past conditions or hold environments in their 2015 state. Climate change poses many possible futures and an imperative to plan and manage towards those we desire and away from those we do not. Possible futures for native animals by 2090:

(The current RCS Objective): Native animals across the region will appear unaffected by climate change or to be coping with its effects. Successful conservation will permit wildlife to adapt or evolve in most of their 2015 habitats.

Up to 20% of the 2015 species diversity of native animals and birds will be lost or in serious decline. But many species will have dispersed and/or adapted to new sites including urban and agricultural areas. Some new populations of species not common in 2015 will be regarded as social or economic pests.

Up to 50% of the 2015 species diversity of native animals and birds will have been lost. Urban development and agriculture, will be intensified by technology and climate adaptation and damage many habitats but some robust, adaptable species will be advantaged.

Around 60% of the native animal and bird species known in 2015 will be absent from the region or difficult to find. Fishing and other recreations will have declined followed climate-driven fish and other animal losses in waterways and the Bays.

Better describe pressures by showing their implications for the future. Emphasise the potential effects of climate change.Signal that adaptive planning as an important part of the RCS.

Page 15 of 31


Ref no.



28 Assets & Targets/ Waterways and wetlands/Pressures/Climate change

Different scenarios will affect waterway health in different ways. Predictions of longer intervals between rain, and more intense rainfall will affect water quality. In particular areas, it is predicted that some waterways will become dry for longer, resulting in the loss of habitat for certain species of macro invertebrates and fish. Drying conditions also result in increases in salinity – this is a concern particularly in the west of the region. In other scenarios, more frequent intense rainfall will change waterway structures and habitat availability.

Climate change is expected to expose waterways and wetlands to: Increased long-term average temperatures Increased hot-day temperatures Lower and more erratic rainfall Higher evaporation Lower soil moisture Increased fire-weather frequency and intensity. Declining and more erratic stream flows. Sea level rise and ocean acidification.


Climate change effects on waterways and wetlands include: Stream flows could be reduced by between 3% and 11% by

2020 and up to 35% by 2050. While stream flows decline, water supply demand may grow.

Larger parts of available stream flows could be diverted. More frequent bushfires will reduce water quality and catchment

inflows. Increasing water temperatures and reduced flows will damage

waterways and wetlands as natural environments. More intense rainfall and ‘flash’ floods will do economic, social

and environmental damage to waterways.


Improve the RCS description of climate change effects in response to the latest research and predictions

Describe climate change effects ways that more directly support planning and management decisions.

29 Assets & Targets/Hinterland/Introduction

Para 7 includes this text:Climate change poses threats to the productivity and quality of Hinterland but is likely to be an indirect barrier to attaining this strategy's initial target for Hinterland extent.

Replace this text with a new paragraph:Climate change will affect primary production and natural environments across this region’s Hinterland. Declining rainfall and water shortages will be particular pressures but more frequent fire-weather and losses in natural values may erode the amenity value of the region’s many hobby farms and ‘rural living’ zones. These economic and social impacts could make climate change a pressure for more hinterland subdivision and urban development.

Improve the description of possible climate change effects on Hinterland economic conditions and pressure for urban uses.

30 Assets & Targets

Paras 5-8: Climate change is expected to expose the Hinterland’s land, soil and water resources to:

Improve the RCS description of climate change effects in response to the latest

Page 16 of 31












Ref no.


/Hinterland/Pressures Various land types within the Hinterland including agricultural land will also be potentially affected by a range of climate change impacts requiring many primary producers to modify practices and expectations.

A table, ‘Expected climate changes’ is duplicated here

According to the Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2013) impacts of these changes on agriculture in Hinterland areas could include:

Faster plant growth as a result of the increased CO2

Declining productivity in some crops and changes in the distribution of where species can be grown

Increased extreme events may impact productivity and production costs as farmers implement protective measures.

Increased production volatility in some sectors and regions may reduce supply

Increased incidence of pests and diseases may also impact production.

These impacts are important in future planning not only for the agriculture industry, but for the food security of our region's growing population. As a result, many farmers and other land managers in the Hinterland will develop and adopt different land management practices that will continue to conserve their soils, waterways and native habitat on their land. Incentives offered by government may see an increase in the amount of carbon sequestered in soil, which will improve soil conservation and productivity.

Lower and more erratic rainfall Declining and more erratic waterway flows. Higher evaporation Lower soil moisture Increased fire-weather frequency and intensity.


Climate change effects on the region’s farming and horticulture industries could include:

Faster plant growth as a result of the increased CO2* ………. but offset by ….

Changes in the suitability of land for particular crops*. Increased extreme event impacts on productivity and production

costs*. Increased production volatility in response to extreme weather*. Rising water costs and declining water security*. Risks of increased pests and diseases*. Declining rainfall and water shortages are expected to end the

viability of some irrigated horticulture in the region. Dryland farming could be similarly pressured The amenity and economic values of ‘hobby’ farming and ‘rural

living’ may decline. A warmer and drier climate with more sporadic and intense

rainfall will increase soil erosion.*Source: Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan, 2013.

These effects could compound the economic and social pressures for more hinterland subdivision for urban development. This is a climate-change risk to Hinterland.But land managers could adapt to changing climate by pursuing new opportunities to build better soils and productivity through ‘carbon-farming’ and nature conservation.

research and predictions.

Describe potential economic and social impacts of climate change


31 Assets & Targets/Coasts/Introduction

(Para 5) A range of pressures including continued coastal development and pest plants and animal incursions will need to be addressed to achieve these targets.

Revise para 5: Four-and-a-half million residents live in the Central Coastal Region. They make 70 million visits to Port Phillip Bay each year. The Central Coastal Region’s population is projected to grow to 6.3 million by 2031 and to almost eight million by 2051. The pressures of population and demands for coastal space and services will need to be addressed to achieve these targets. In addition, they will compounded by climate change effects - rising sea levels and storm surge risks, reduced rainfall and higher temperatures.

Improve the description of population and potential climate change effects on the coast.

32 Assets & Targets/Coasts/ Targets& Leadership sections

Add City of Kingston as a new RCS partner:Asset: Coastal native vegetationTarget: 36.3 ha of native coastal vegetation across 13km of foreshore to be maintained by 2035.Leadership statement: The Kingston City Council considers this target important and achievable. This target will be achieved through the provision of staff and resources to maintain the vegetation in the coastal reserves.

Page 17 of 31

http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/Victorian-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Plan


Ref no.


Tony Collins, Parks & Recreation Team Leader33 Assets &

Targets/Coasts/PressuresClimate change and coastal inundation

Increased average temperatures, greater evaporation, lower rainfall and rising sea levels are likely to amplify the pressures posed by coastal development and pests on native vegetation and other environmental values of coasts.

More persistent and intense dry periods are expected. These changes may drive decline in existing vegetation communities except where localised conditions might support them. Declining vegetation might be succeeded by new communities but dominance by weeds is a real possibility. The capacity of changed vegetation to support the current diversity of native animals is unknown.

A significant proportion of the coast in this area is low-lying. It is likely that predicted sea level rise will heighten conflict over space for native vegetation retreat and human needs for coastal protection. It may exacerbate existing coastal erosion problems.

The pressures posed by urban development will reduce the resilience of native vegetation to climate change. These are pressures we can most readily control.

Climate change is expected to expose coasts to: Sea level rise More frequent, higher storm surges. Lower and more erratic rainfalls. Higher hot-day and long-term average temperatures. Increased fire-weather frequency and intensity.


These pressures increase the possibilities of: Accelerated coastal erosion. Erosion and wildfire risks where housing and public facilities

abut coastal reserves. Heightened conflict between human demands for coastal

protections such as seawalls and space for natural environments.

Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable, internationally significant natural assets in this region and highly vulnerable to climate change. Declining freshwater inputs and rising seawater intrusions may degrade and ultimately change coastal wetlands by reducing their size, converting them to dry land or transforming them from (for example) saltmarsh to mangrove swamp.

This RCS provides Strategic Planning Responses to these pressures. A method has been used to determine the current condition of coasts (Method and Condition) and targets have been proposed for their future condition (Targets). Lead organisations are committed to achieving these targets (Leadership). Targets and leadership arrangements will be determined in consultation with relevant departments, agencies and delegated land managers. Arrangements are proposed to monitor and report on progress and success (Monitoring & reporting).

Improve the RCS description of climate change effects in response to the latest research and predictions.

Describe potential economic and social impacts of climate change


34 Assets & Targets/Coasts/Pressures

Add this text to the bottom of the ‘Pressures’ page under the drop-down menus:The RCS provides an Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink) as a critical response to these pressures. A method has been used to determine the current condition of coasts (Method and Condition) and targets have been set for the future (Targets). Lead organisations are committed to achieving these targets (Leadership). Targets and leadership arrangements will be determined in consultation with relevant departments, agencies and delegated land managers. Arrangements are in place to monitor and report on progress and success (Monitoring & reporting).

Signal that adaptive planning is an important part of the RCS.

35 Assets & Targets/Coasts/Monitoring & reporting

MonitoringThe Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning will manage data on native vegetation extent and quality, which will enable assessment of progress towards the targets.

Revise Para 3:The Central Region Coastal Plan 2015-2020, Priority Action 7.1, says, “The Central Coastal Regional perspective will be factored into the development of a coastal and marine environmental value measurement system and environmental accounts that are consistent

Contribute to RCS consistency with the Central Region Coastal Plan 2015-2020.

Page 18 of 31

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/coasts/monitoring-reporting-for-coasts-across-the-region/?l1=0&l2=4&l3=7


http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/coasts/targets-for-coasts-across-the-whole-region/?l1=0&l2=4&l3=3

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/coasts/current-condition-of-coasts-for-the-whole-region/?l1=0&l2=4&l3=2

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/coasts/method-to-assess-coasts-across-the-whole-region/?l1=0&l2=4&l3=1


Ref no.


The data will be used to re-assess the environmental condition of the coastal zones each 3 years.

It is expected that a Coastal Action Plan will be developed for the coast of the Port Phillip & Western Port region by the Victorian Government (led by the Central Coastal Board). The plan may make progress towards an ‘Index of Coastal Condition” or similar that could better describe and assess the environmental value of coastal areas. That could lead to these monitoring arrangements being revised.

with international systems”.The coastal value measurement and accounts system could lead to these monitoring arrangements being revised.

36 Assets & Targets/Port Phillip Bay/Introduction to marine water quality in Port Phillip Bay

Para 8Climate change risks to Port Phillip Bay water quality centre on the possibility of coastal inundation affecting nutrient inputs and rising water temperatures affecting biota and ecological processes.

Revise Para 8:Climate change will increase water temperatures. Warmer waters are already changing marine animal and plant distributions and advantaging some species over others. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase water acidity. This will have particular impacts on the ability of crustaceans and planktons to create their calcium-based shells.

Provide more concise and relevant information about climate change pressures on Port Phillip Bay.

37 Assets & Targets/Port Phillip Bay/Pressures on the marine water quality in Port Phillip Bay/Climate Change

Climate change is expected to increase coastal inundation, reduce overall riverine flows and increase the frequency of storms and flash floods, which together many increase sedimentation.

(Table of predicted climate futures)

Global sea levels are projected to rise between 0.18 to 0.59 m by 2095, with a possible additional contribution from ice sheet melts of 0.1 to 0.2 m. Larger contributions to global sea level rise from more rapid melting of polar ice sheets are possible.

During this century, the Victorian coastline can expect greater inundation and erosion from sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm events. The marine environment will also be impacted by increased sea temperatures, changing sea currents and acidification of the ocean.Sea level rise combined with increased storm events and storm surges will result in damaging waves, wind and flooding, erosion and damage to marine ecosystems.

A storm surge is elevated sea level caused by a low pressure system and intense winds. A storm surge will have maximum impact when combined with a high or king tide. Storm surges are likely to occur more frequently due to changed wind patterns, rainfall and sea surface temperatures. Consequently, erosion and inundation, already a feature of some parts of Victoria’s coast, may worsen with climate change.

Climate change is expected to reduce river flows to Port Phillip Bay but increase the frequency and intensity of storm flows. These will increase pollution risks when long periods of low runoff are interrupted by periods of concentrated pollutant loads. Coastal Ramsar wetlands on Port Phillip Bay’s western shore will be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Global sea levels are projected to rise between 0.18 to 0.59m by 2095, with a possible additional contribution from ice sheet melts of 0.1 to 0.2m. Larger sea level rise from more rapid melting of polar ice sheets is possible. Marine environments will be impacted by increased water temperatures and acidification. Warmer waters are already creating changes to the distribution of marine plants and animals. Acidification increases the energy marine crustaceans and planktons need to create their calcium carbonate shells. The loss of these animals could have catastrophic effects on marine food chains and ecological systems.

Provide more concise and relevant information about climate change pressures. Focus text on climate change impacts on marine water quality rather than coastal effects.

38 Assets & Targets/Port Phillip Bay/Pressures on the marine water quality in Port Phillip Bay

Add this text to the bottom of the ‘Pressures’ page under the drop-down menus:The RCS provides an Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink) as a critical response to these pressures. Water quality in Port Phillip Bay has been assessed (Method & Condition). Targets have been set (Targets) and lead organisations are committed to achieving the targets (Leadership). Arrangements are in place to monitor and report on progress and success (Monitoring & Reporting).

Page 19 of 31

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/monitoring-reporting-1/?l1=0&l2=5&l3=6

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/leadership-1/?l1=0&l2=5&l3=4

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/targets-1/?l1=0&l2=5&l3=3

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/current-condition-1/?l1=0&l2=5&l3=2

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/method-1/?l1=0&l2=5&l3=1


Ref no.


Targets and leadership arrangements are determined in consultation with relevant departments, agencies and delegated land managers

39 Assets & Targets/Port Phillip Bay/Monitoring & Reporting

MonitoringThe Environment Protection Authority regularly collects water quality data for Port Phillip Bay and maintains a database of the results.

Each year, this data is used to re-assess the condition of marine water by comparing the results to the objectives in the relevant State environmental protection policy.

Add: A new Environmental Management Plan for Port Phillip Bay is currently under development. The plan will guide future investment in water quality protection, monitoring and reporting.

Update RCS to recognise the Port Phillip Bay Environmental Management Plan revision

40 Assets & Targets/Western Port/Introduction to marine water quality in Western Port

Para 10:Climate change risks to Western Port centre on future coastal inundation and rising sea temperatures. Inundation of Western Port’s northern coast is of particular concern. It will make efforts to improve water quality through coastal erosion control more risky and expensive.

Climate change risks to Western Port centre on future coastal inundation and rising sea temperatures. Inundation of Western Port’s northern coast will make efforts to improve water quality through coastal erosion control more risky and expensive. Increasing water temperatures are already changing marine animal and plant distributions and advantaging some species over others. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase water acidity. This will have particular impacts on the ability of crustaceans and planktons to create their calcium-based shells.

Provide better information about climate change pressures on Western Port.

41 Assets & Targets/Western Port/Pressures on marine water quality in Western Port/Climate change

Climate change is expected to increase coastal inundation, reduce overall riverine flows and increase the frequency of storms and flash floods, which together may increase sedimentation.

(Table of predicted climate futures)

Global sea levels are projected to rise between 0.18 to 0.59 m by 2095, with a possible additional contribution from ice sheet melts of 0.1 to 0.2 m. Larger contributions to global sea level rise from more rapid melting of polar ice sheets are possible.

During this century, the Victorian coastline can expect greater inundation and erosion from sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm events. The marine environment will also be impacted by increased sea temperatures, changing sea currents and acidification of the ocean.

Sea level rise combined with increased storm events and storm surges will result in damaging waves, wind and flooding, erosion and damage to marine ecosystems.

A storm surge is elevated sea level caused by a low pressure system and intense winds. A storm surge will have maximum impact when combined with a high or king tide. Storm surges are likely to occur more frequently due to changed wind patterns, rainfall and sea surface temperatures.

Consequently, erosion and inundation is expected to worsen on Western Port's northern and eastern coasts. This is likely to make efforts to improve water quality through coastal erosion control more risky and expensive.

Climate change is expected to reduce overall riverine flows but increase the frequency and intensity of storms and flash floods carrying increased pollutant and sediment loads to Western Port. Coastal Ramsar wetlands and agricultural land on Western Port’s low-lying northern coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Global sea levels are projected to rise between 0.18 to 0.59 m by 2095, with a possible additional contribution from ice sheet melts of 0.1 to 0.2 m. Larger contributions to global sea level rise from more rapid melting of polar ice sheets are possible. Marine environments will be impacted by increased water temperatures and acidification. Warmer waters are already creating changes to the distribution of marine plants and animals. Acidification increases the energy marine crustaceans and planktons need to create their calcium carbonate shells. The loss of these animals could have catastrophic effects on marine food chains and ecological systems.

Provide better information about climate change pressures on Western Port.

42 Assets & Targets/Western Add this text to the bottom of the ‘Pressures’ page under the

drop-down menus:

Page 20 of 31


Ref no.


Port/Pressures on marine water quality in Western Port

The RCS provides an Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink) as a critical response to these pressures. The marine water quality in Western Port has been assessed (Method & Condition). Lead organisations are committed to achieving the targets (Targets) and arrangements are in place to monitor and report on progress and success (Monitoring & reporting). Targets and leadership arrangements are determined in consultation with relevant departments, agencies and delegated land managers.

43 Interactive Map: Landcare Groups

Update the interactive map layer for Landcare groups and their boundaries.

Assists private and public land and waterway managers see where complementary and collaborative work could be possible. Useful information for Landcare groups and broader community.

44 Interactive Map: Rainfall

Update 10-year annual average rainfall shading.Add a layer for rainfall in the past 2 years.

Provides supporting information for climate change response.Information for all land and waterway managers.

45 Interactive Map: Elevation

Include this layer for the first time. Provides supporting information for climate change response.Information for all land and waterway managers.

46 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change

Add new map layer showing the distribution of climate-sensitive vegetation.

Provides data to support climate-change planning and response. Data is for climate scenarios and timing assumed to be most significant for decision-making for given asset.

47 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box* for Moorabool, Melton, Wyndham, Greater Geelong.

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change for Moorabool, Melton, Wyndham and Greater Geelong sub-region.This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:

Maximum summer temperature increases 2oC - 2.9oC above 1986-2005 average.

Annual average rainfall losses 16mm - 34mm below 1986-2005 average.

‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities across the Moorabool, Melton, Wyndham and Greater Geelong Council areas. Patches occur at: President’s Park, Mambourin, Serendip Sanctuary, Cocoroc,

Wyndham Vale, Durdidwarrah, You Yangs Regional Park, Brisbane Ranges National Park and Avalon.

Near Staughton Vale, Balliang East, Maddingley, Truganina

Page 21 of 31

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/monitoring-reporting/?l1=0&l2=6&l3=6

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/marine-waters/?l1=0&l2=6&l3=3

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/current-condition/?l1=0&l2=6&l3=2

http://www.ppwrcs.vic.gov.au/assets-areas/whole-region/marine-waters/method/?l1=0&l2=6&l3=1


Ref no.


and between Maude and Lethbridge. The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Sub-Group 53; Hills Herb-rich Woodlands – Lower Slopes

or Hills Woodlands EVC Sub-Group 181; Wetlands Freshwater and includes: Red

Gum Swamp, Cane Grass Wetland, Plains Grassy Wetland, Shallow Freshwater Marsh, Lignum Swamp, Plains Sedgy Wetland, Wetland Formation, Aquatic Wetland

Monitoring changes in the extent, quality, flowering, seed-set and recruitment of vegetation in these communities may be a way to track climate change effects. This information could be used in goal setting and ‘decision -point’ evaluations in adaptive management planning. Goal-setting and decision-point evaluations are described in the RCS Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink)

48 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box for Macedon Ranges, Hume, Mitchell, Whittlesea

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change for Macedon Ranges, Hume, Mitchell and Whittlesea sub-region.This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:



‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities located across the Macedon Ranges, Hume, Mitchell and Whittlesea Council areas. Small patches occur at: Kalkallo, between Whittlesea and Glenvale and between

Craigieburn and Wollert Macedon

The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Class 53; Lower Slopes or Hills Woodlands – Herb Rich EVC Class 72; Damp Forests EVC Class 181; Wetland Freshwater and include: Lignum

Swamp, Plains Sedgy Wetland, Plains Grassy Wetland.

Monitoring changes in the extent, quality, flowering, seed-set and recruitment of vegetation in these communities may be a way to

Page 22 of 31


Ref no.


track climate change effects. This information could be used in goal setting and ‘decision-point’ evaluations in adaptive management planning. Goal-setting and decision-point evaluations are described in the RCS Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink)

49 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box for Yarra Ranges, Nillumbik

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change for Yarra Ranges and Nillumbik sub-region.This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:



‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities are widespread across Yarra Ranges and Nillumbik Council areas. Larger patches occur at: Yarra Ranges National Park, Kinglake National Park,

Warrandyte - Kinglake Nature Conservation Reserve McMahons Creek, Warburton, Healesville, Toolangi, Kinglake,

Warrandyte Smaller patches occur around and near St Andrews North.

The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Class 71; Wet Forests EVC Class 72; Damp Forests EVC Class 91; Cool Temperate Rainforest


50 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box for Casey, Cardinia, Baw Baw

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change for Casey, Cardinia and Baw Baw sub-region.This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:


Page 23 of 31


Ref no.



‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities across Casey, Cardinia and Baw Baw Council areas. These patches occur at: Casey: private and public land around and near Warneet. Cardinia: private and public land around and near Pakenham

Upper and Lyndhurst Baw Baw: private and public land around and near Noojee,

Neerim North and across the Highlands.The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Class 71: Wet Forests EVC Class 72: Damp Forests EVC Class 152: Herb-rich Woodlands EVC Class 181; Freshwater Wetlands specifically Plains

Grassy Wetlands


51 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box for Bass Coast, South Gippsland & Islands

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change for Bass Coast, South Gippsland and Islands sub-region. This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:



‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.

Page 24 of 31


Ref no.


This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities across Bass Coast, South Gippsland Shires and on French Is and Phillip Is. These patches occur at: Bass Coast: private and public land around and near Grantville

and The Gurdies. South Gippsland: Humphrey Hill, private and public land

around and near Loch and Poowong. French Island: French Island National Park and other public

and private land locations. Phillip Island: Cape Woolamai State Faunal Reserve, Grant

Hill, The Nobbies, Summerlands and Green Lake The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Class 11; Coastal Scrubs Grasslands and Woodlands EVC Class 31; Lowland Forests EVC Class 71; Wet Forests EVC Class 72: Damp Forests EVC Class 181; Freshwater Wetlands and includes: Aquatic

Herbland and Swamp Scrub Mosaic.

Monitoring changes in the extent, quality, flowering, seed-set and recruitment of vegetation in these communities may be a way to track climate change effects. This information could be used in goal setting and ‘decision -point’ evaluations in adaptive management planning.

Goal-setting and decision-point evaluations are described in the RCS Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink)

52 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box for Mornington Peninsula

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change on the Mornington Peninsula sub-region.

This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:



‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities widespread across the Mornington Peninsula. Larger patches occur at: The Mornington Peninsula and Point Nepean National Parks Tootgarook Swamp and HMAS Cerberus Smaller, public and private land patches at Main Ridge, Red

Page 25 of 31


Ref no.


Hill and between Crib Point and Tyabb. The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Class 152; Herb-rich Woodlands EVC Class 72; Damp Forests EVC Class 181; Freshwater Wetlands specifically Sedge

Wetlands


53 Interactive Map: Vegetation sensitivity to climate change/Pop-up box for Urban Melbourne; inner and middle metropolitan council areas

Proposed text to be displayed alongside map:Native vegetation sensitivity to climate change for Urban Melbourne sub-region.This map layer shows the native vegetation assessed as most sensitive to the combination of:



‘Sensitivity’ is the likely responsiveness of systems to climate pressures. Sensitive systems are likely to be the first affected by climate change.These projections are in the mid-range of high-confidence predictions about climate change effects. (add hyperlink here) Actual changes could be smaller or larger depending on the actual effects of rising atmospheric CO2 and the success of global CO2 mitigation.This map shows sensitive native vegetation communities located at specific areas across Urban Melbourne. Small patches occur at: Laverton North and Derrimut, Sydenham, West and Diggers

Rest, West Melbourne, Fishermens Bend, Heidelberg, Point Cook,

Point Cook Coastal Park, Edithvale, Mordi Yallock Lagoon, Bonbeach, Seaford and Lyndhurst.

The mapping data shows these patches are composed of the following Ecological Vegetation Class Sub-Groups: EVC Class 152; Damp Sand Herb-rich Woodlands EVC Class 181; Wetlands Freshwater and include: Reed

Swamp, Plains Sedgy Wetland, Aquatic Herbland, Plains Grassy Wetland and Floodplain Wetland Aggregate.

Monitoring changes in the extent, quality, flowering, seed-set and recruitment of vegetation in these communities may be a way to track climate change effects. This information could be used in goal

Page 26 of 31


Ref no.


setting and ‘decision -point’ evaluations in adaptive management planning. Goal-setting and decision-point evaluations are described in the RCS Introduction to Adaptive Management Planning (add hyperlink)

54 Implementation & reporting

This drop-down menu contains: Planning & Action Environmental Reports

Rename this menu:Planning, Action & ReportingRevise its contents:

Guide to Adaptive Planning (see ref 55 below) Implementation Stories Environmental Reports

Page 27 of 31


55 Proposed menu title: Planning, Action & Reporting/Adaptive Planning

INTRODUCTION TO ADAPTIVE PLANNINGThis is a strategy for many organisations to work towards common goals.

It proposes:

1. A critical step to more successful conservation will come from successful adaptive planning and management

2. The uncertainty of climate change has made adaptive management planning, and learning how to do it, a critical task.

3. Monitoring to measure effectiveness of actions and progress towards goals are vital to adaptive planning and action.

4. Common approaches to adaptive planning will build: Influential decision-making and successful action, Efficient monitoring and faster learning, Purposeful reporting and effective advocacy.

WHY ADAPTIVE PLANNING?Achieving environmental outcomes involves many factors beyond our control. Complex climate change effects make environmental outcomes even more unpredictable.

Climate change is likely to affect all parts of living systems, multiply and complicate existing pressures.

Achievement of less predictable outcomes needs planning that provides in-flight answers to, ‘Is what we are doing working’? ‘Are we making sufficient progress’?

Climate change makes significant biodiversity declines likely. Restoring past or preserving present conditions may not be possible.

Most modern conservation work is pursuing environmental outcomes of resilience (eg protect existing natural assets, restore to known past conditions). Climate change may make unachievable the resilience of living things in their current states and locations. A response could be to shift to planning for outcomes of transition - helping natural assets move to different but valued states. Adaptive planning helps to decide when and how to make this shift.

If climate change proceeds to drive profound change, planning may need to shift to environmental outcomes of transformation - the creation of new, valued environments.

Assumptions that social and economic values in nature will be protected by conserving species and habitats may not be valid. Environment strategies need goals for nature and goals for nature’s social and economic values.

WHAT’S IN AN ADAPTIVE PLAN?1. Knowing what success looks like. This is the starting point for:

A vision – brief, inspiring, general description of the desired end state

Knowing what environmental assets we value and want to focus on, and their key attributes of ‘health’.

2. Measurable goals, based on their key attributes, for the future desired state of valued assets.

Goals could include specific, measurable results for: Remnant vegetation quality, extent and connectivity.

Waterway and wetland flora and fauna.

Populations of native animals.

Soils and productivity

Community appreciation of the value of its natural inheritance.

Examples of measurable goals:

More than 500,000 hectares of high quality native vegetation is reserved on public and covenanted private land across the region in

Page 28 of 31


2050. (The current RCS Objective)

Native vegetation on private land is maintained at its 2015 measures for net quality and net extent to 2050. (The current RCS Objective)

Native vegetation connectivity scores have doubled from 2015 measures across more than 10 landscape areas greater than 16 km2 in the region by 2050.

Vegetation corridors along waterways in the (xx river basin) have doubled in continuous and protected extent from 2015 measures by 2050

The (number) species of native animals and (number) species of birds observed in 2015 in (a list of landscape locations or reserves) are observed in 2030 and 2050.

3. Strategies expressed as ‘pathways’ of intermediate results needed to reach the goals. Intermediate results are linked by cause-and-effect logic to their goals and assumptions are made explicit about how and why they will achieve the goal(s).

4. ‘Decision points’ along the pathways. These are the points of uncertainty which need measurement and inquiry where we ask, ‘Is this working‘?

Decision points are places in a pathway where monitoring enables:

Actions to be checked for effectiveness.

Changes in circumstances (eg environmental/social/economic conditions) that could herald ‘tipping’ or crisis points that make achievement of a goal unlikely.

Decisions about whether to revise a goal..

5. Agreements for who will do what by when.

The above steps are detailed in the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation, also referred to as Conservation Action Planning (CAP).

CAP is a best practice process for planning, implementing and measuring success for conservation projects. The PPWCMA is working with partners to learn and implement CAP.

CAP is being used around the world as a preferred method for action-planning, goal-setting, evaluation and learning.

FURTHER READINGOpen Standards for the Practice of Conservation version 3 . Conservation Measures Partnership.

Bosomworth, K., Harwood, A., Leith, P., and Wallis, P. (2015). Adaptation Pathways: a playbook for developing options for climate change adaptation in Natural Resource Management. Southern Slopes Climate Change AdaptationResearch Partnership (SCARP): RMIT University, University of Tasmania, and Monash University.

Dunlop M, Parris, H, Ryan, P & Kroon, F 2013, Climate-ready conservation objectives: Ascoping study, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast

Page 29 of 31


APPENDIX

DETAILED CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONSPredictions about our changing climate are described below and grouped by:

1. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCPs are estimates of the heat retained in the lower atmosphere and determined by global greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide.

2. Confidence in predictions based on:

The type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence;

The extent of agreement amongst the different lines of evidence.

Note : Confidence ratings do not equate precisely to the probability of a scenario occurring. Confidence in a prediction about the direction of change may be high but lower for its magnitude due to known modelling deficiencies.

For more information about potential climate change effects, go to Climate Change in Australia Projections: Cluster Report – Southern Slopes (CSIRO, 2015)

PREDICTIONS FOR RCP 2.6 (low CO 2 emissions) RCP 2.6 represents atmospheric heating estimated to follow emissions that peak around 2020 and then rapidly decline to carbon dioxide concentration at about 420 ppm by 2100. Active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is likely to be required later in the century for this scenario to be achieved.

RCP2.6 VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS

Increases in annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperatures.

Increased mean annual temperature to 2030 between 0.4 and 1.1 °C above the 1986–2005 climate.

Increased mean annual temperature to 2090 between 1.1°C and 2.0°C above the 1986–2005 climate.

A substantial increase in the temperature reached on the hottest days, the frequency of hot days and the duration of warm spells

Continuing sea level rise during the 21st century to between 70mm and 190mm above the 1986–2005 level.

Increasing acidification of the ocean around Australia.

RCP 2.6 HIGH CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS

Natural climate variability will be the major driver of rainfall changes to 2030.

Twenty-year mean rainfall averages will change by between -10% to +5% annually and about -20 to +15 % seasonally.

Decreasing frequency of frost-risk days

By 2050, the area averaging at least 1 day of snow-cover will decrease by 25 to 55 % and the average snow season will be 20 to 55 days shorter than under the current climate.

Small changes for mean surface wind speed to 2030.

Increased evapotranspiration in all seasons by 2090 with largest absolute rates in summer and driven largely by increasing temperatures, but also changes in radiation, humidity and wind speed.

A harsher fire-weather climate (but there is low confidence in current estimates of the magnitude of the change to fire-weather).

The rate of increasing ocean acidification will be proportional to carbon dioxide emissions.

RCP 2.6 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS.

The proportion of time spent in any category of drought (from mild to extreme) will increase through the century.

PREDICTIONS FOR RCP 4.5 and 6.0: (intermediate CO 2 emissions) RCP6.0 represents atmospheric heating estimated to follow the implementation of some mitigation strategies with carbon dioxide reaching 670 ppm by 2100.

RCP4.5 represents atmospheric heating estimated to follow somewhat higher emissions than RCP6.0 in the early part of the century with emissions peaking earlier then declining to a stabilised carbon dioxide concentration at about 540 ppm by 2100.

RCP 4.5 and 6.0 VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS

Substantial increases in annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperatures.

Increased mean annual temperature to 2030 between 0.4 and 1.1 °C above the 1986–2005 climate.


By 2050, cold years will become warmer than most of the current climate’s warm years.


Declining snowfall and maximum snow depths.



Page 30 of 31

http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.5/cms_page_media/172/SOUTHERN_SLOPES_CLUSTER_REPORT_1.pdf

http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.5/cms_page_media/172/SOUTHERN_SLOPES_CLUSTER_REPORT_1.pdf


RCP 4.5 and 6.0 HIGH CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS Natural climate variability will be the major driver of rainfall changes to 2030 as human-

made changes will become apparent.

General losses of winter-spring rainfall to 2090.

Increases or decreases in summer rainfall are possible.

An increase in solar radiation and a decrease in relative humidity in winter and spring.

Decreases in soil moisture and catchment runoff - driven largely by changes to rainfall and evapotranspiration. (The likely magnitudes of these changes remain unclear)


RCP 4.5 and 6.0 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS The proportion of time spent in any category of drought (from mild to extreme) will

increase through the century.

Spring rainfall will decrease by between -25 and -5 %

Winter rainfall will decrease between -15 and +5 %.

At least 66% probability of sea level rise to 2090 of between 270mm and 660mm.

Sea level rises several tenths of a metre higher by 2090 if a collapse in the marine based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet were initiated.

PREDICTIONS FOR RCP 8.5 (high CO 2 emissions) RCP8.5 describes atmospheric heating estimated for a future with little curbing of emissions and carbon dioxide concentrations reaching 940 ppm by 2100.

RCP 8.5 VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS. Substantial increases in annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum surface air

temperatures.

Increased mean annual temperature to 2030 between 0.4°C and 1.1 °C above the 1986–2005 climate.



By 2050, cold years will be warmer than all the current climate’s warm years.

Significant losses of snowfall and maximum snow depth.

Sea surface temperature increases to between 1.6°C and 5.1°C by 2090.



RCP 8.5 HIGH CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS The annual average number of Melbourne days above 35° C will more than double by

2090.


An increase in solar radiation and a decrease in relative humidity in winter and spring.

Substantial soil moisture decline, especially during winter and spring with annual decreases in soil moisture and catchment runoff driven largely by changes to rainfall and evapotranspiration. (The likely magnitudes of these changes remain unclear)

RCP 8.5 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PREDICTIONS The proportion of time spent in any category of drought (from mild to extreme) will

increase through the century, especially by 2090.

Winter rainfall losses of between -30 and +5 % by 2090.

Spring rainfall losses of between -45 and -5 % by 2090.

At least 66 % probability of sea level rise to 2090 of between 390mm and 890mm.

Sea level rises several tenths of a metre higher than the above estimate by 2090 if the marine based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet a collapse in the were initiated.

Page 31 of 31