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In the Middle East for over 30 Years Property Review UAE Real Estate Report Q4 2018

Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

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Page 1: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

In the Middle East for over 30 Years

Property Review

UAE Real Estate Report Q4 2018

Page 2: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

CONTENT

03EDITORIAL NOTE

04ABU DHABI

14DUBAI

25NORTHERN

32AL AIN

40UAE PRICE COMPARISON

42OXFORD ECONOMICS

EMIRATES

43AL TAMIMI & CO.

Page 3: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Editorial Note

JOHN STEVENS MSC, BSC (HONS), MRICS

Managing Director / Director - Asset Management

Despite regional/global economic and geopolitical headwinds, the UAE managed to return to growth following the impact of the 2008/09 global financial downturn. The return to growth has been assisted on federal and municipal levels with strategies and initiatives aimed at diversifying the economy, building resilience and improving the UAE’s competitiveness on the global stage.

The publicity around and final announcement of the Expo 2020 helped re-instil confidence in the market and saw Real Estate performance improve over the short-term; however, markedly declining oil prices and subsequent spending cuts instigated a reversal of the trend. Although the Real Estate market has come under pressure over the last 3 years, it is much better equipped to weather the trough than post financial crisis and appears to be entering a more mature phase, and whilst market sentiment remains bearish, mainly due to fluctuating oil prices, rising interest rates and trade tensions, key economic performance indicators show signs of cautious optimism. This report looks back at the changes that have occurred in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, the Northern Emirates and Al Ain since 2008, and provides Asteco’s opinion on the Prospects for 2019 and beyond.

2018 HIGHLIGHTS

2019 OUTLOOK

MEDIUM TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK

Whilst the downward trajectory in the Real Estate market for the short-term is unavoidable due to tepid economic/market conditions and the expected supply glut, the outlook for the medium- and long-term for the UAE is encouraging, fuelled by a pro-active government response and clear focus on economic progress and sustainability. With the advanced and ever-improving regulatory, financial and physical infrastructure, the UAE will continue as a leading land-sea-air multimodal transport hub connecting the Far East with the West, and thus attract human and physical capital with a long-term view on living, investing and doing business in the country. As the UAE Real Estate market matures (just as in other markets), it is reasonable to assume that underlining market fundamentals will eventually come to the fore. Whilst achieving demand/supply equilibrium is unlikely, in the medium-long term we should look forward to more stable conditions with shallower peaks and troughs.

Transactional volumes and values declined across all sectors and Emirates, but there is still liquidity in the market, which is reflected in the rise in secondary market sales and the positive response to a number of off-plan developments launched in 2018. Whilst there has evidently been a decline in new project launches/announcements (as Developers take a wait-and see-approach in light of saturation concerns), committed projects are proceeding at pace. Developers have also become increasingly innovative when trying to attract potential Purchasers. With traditional sales incentives almost exhausted (e.g. absorbing DLD & Agent fees, reducing down-payments and offering flexible/longer post-handover payment terms), some Developers are offering buy-back options in case of job loss and annual stipends for project delays. Although competitive/low price points continued to dominate transaction activity, Asteco recorded some demand for luxury properties. Residential and commercial rental demand continued to lag ever-increasing supply. This exerted further downward pressure on rental rates over the course of 2018. As a result of these conditions, landlords have generally been more open to negotiate discounts, &/or offer incentives such as lease-free periods and flexible payment terms (multiple cheques) to retain Tenants and/or entice new ones.

In addition to the freezing of school fees for 2018 - 2019, a number of new initiatives were announced (see below). Whilst published in 2018, they require further clarifications and the effect of these initiatives can only be judged after implementation, although they are anticipated to be positive. • Publication of the 10-year residency visa for Investors and certain professionals • 100% ownership of companies outside Free Zones • Retiree residency visa These government initiatives, coupled with a number of other catalyst such as increased federal and local budgets, stimulus packages, diversification/growth strategies and reduced cost of doing business, are expected to increase investment and facilitate economic growth and play positively on market sentiment. Despite these efforts further pressure on sales prices and rental rates is expected well into 2019 due to the sheer volume of supply, although the rate of decline is likely to soften. This also translates into more attractive/competitive offers from Landlords/Sellers, and greater choice for Tenants and Investors.

Asteco, in partnership with the National Bank of Fujairah and Direct Debit System FZ LLE launched a Direct Debit System allowing monthly payment options to Tenants, which is a first for the UAE Real Estate market.

Page 4: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Abu DhabiTHE CAPITAL CITY

Page 5: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Inde

x Ba

se 1

00 =

Mar

ch 2

010

The line graph above demonstrates the average percentage sales and rental trend on a quarterly basis.

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Apartment Sales Apartment Rentals Villa Rentals Office Rentals

Mar Jun DecDec SepSep MarMar JunJunSep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017

ABU DHABI | HISTORIC REVIEW

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 20185

RECESSION

2009 - 2011

Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial corrections in rental rates and sales prices, which dropped in excess of 60% from their peak in Q4 2008 as a result of the global financial crisis. The decline in rental rates led to a strong leasing market with increased internal Tenant movement to quality properties. Transaction levels picked up towards the end of 2011 leading to take-up of new residential properties in well planned projects. However, with the amount of stock available, sales prices continued to decline. Subdued business growth put pressure on the office market resulting in decreased rental rates across all quality grades.

• • • • •

RECOVERY AND GROWTH

2012 - 2014

The market began to show signs of recovery in 2012 and rates stabilised throughout the year. Asteco recorded a marked increase in rental rates and sales prices from the end of 2012 due to improved sentiment. Several new prime and high-end projects were handed over during this period. As a result, rates for inferior quality stock advertised at above market averages corrected. Internal Tenant movement and flight-to-quality prevailed as people took advantage of the options available. Transaction levels improved in line with increased job security and market confidence leading to tenancy upgrades and a rise in home ownership. Off-plan sales also recommenced during 2013 and 2014. Residential sales prices rose considerably (by approximately 50%) compared to their lowest point. The office market was relatively stable, with lower quality space noting marginal declines whilst superior units recorded minimal increases.

• • • • • • •

STABILISATION

2015

Limited new supply resulted in moderate increases in rental rates and sales prices in 2015, especially during the first half of the year, whilst remaining broadly stable thereafter. The drop in oil prices prompted a general slowdown in investment, whilst sales demand focused on completed rather than off-plan properties.

• •

DOWNTURN

2016 - 2018

Bearish market sentiment, coupled with a number of major mergers and companies downsizing, had an adverse effect on Real Estate demand. Approximately 11,900 units were delivered between 2016 and 2018, which put further pressure on rates. As a result, apartment and villa rental rates recorded an average decrease of 25% and 17%, respectively, since the end of 2015, whilst sales prices declined by 22% and 8%. Although demand for completed projects softened, mainly due to the high down payment required by the Central Bank, transaction volumes for newly launched projects offering competitive sales prices and payment plans increased. However, the number of new project launches declined markedly in 2018 and so did off-plan transactions. The increase in supply resulted in a greater choice for Residents and Landlords continued to offer incentives to retain Tenants and increase occupancy levels.

• • • • • •

Page 6: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

APARTMENTSNO. OF UNITS

VILLASNO. OF UNITS

OFFICESSQ.M.

COMPLETED IN COMPLETED IN EXPECTED IN

ABU DHABI SUPPLY

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report -

4,150 400 9,300

670 1,000 1,900

0 50,000 40,000

Q4 2018

Q1 - Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019

6

Page 7: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

ABU DHABI HIGHLIGHTS AND OUTLOOK

TRENDS SALES PRICES RENTAL RATES PROJECT LAUNCHES INCENTIVES SUPPLY DEMAND - OFF PLAN DEMAND - COMPLETED

2018

2019

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 20187

SUPPLY

RENTAL RATES

SALES PRICES

2018 HIGHLIGHT 2019 OUTLOOK

• • • •

Although a number of projects were delayed and spilled over into 2019, Asteco recorded the delivery of circa 6,200 residential units in 2018 including 4,500 apartments and 1,700 villas. About half of this supply was concentrated on the Islands (mainly Al Reem and Yas Islands). The ADIB HQ located on Airport Road has been delivered, whereas the anticipated Omega Tower on Reem Island is experiencing further delays. The number of project launches was limited in 2018 and principally included the Reflection Towers and Al Ghadeer - Phase 2 by Aldar, the Riviera by IMKAN and Al Fahid Island by Al Nahda Investment.

• • • •

The Abu Dhabi Real Estate market continued to follow a similar downward trend as observed over the previous two years. Apartments and villas recorded average annual rental declines of 10% and 9%, attributed to increased supply and bearish market conditions. Demand for office space was limited due to subdued business/employment growth. As a result, rental rates dropped by 4% on average over the year, although several mid- to low-quality commercial buildings recorded decreases of 10% and above. Conversely, demand for office space in Free Zone areas was more buoyant translating into high occupancy rates.

• • •

Whilst transactional activity for completed projects was limited, off-plan properties offered at attractive rates with flexible payment plans continued to generate interest with some developments achieving high demand levels. Apartment sales prices decreased on average by 9% in 2018, with the highest decline recorded in Marina Square and Sun & Sky Towers on Al Reem Island. The annual drop in villas sales prices was less pronounced, recording a softening of 4% with the highest decrease noted in Al Raha Gardens and Al Reef Villas.

• • •

Approximately 11,200 residential units are anticipated for completion in 2019. The majority of this supply will be delivered in the Investment Zones including, but not limited to: - Reem Island comprising 2,350 units; - Al Raha Beach with 2,500 units; - Yas Island with 1,300 units; and - Saadiyat Island totaling 1,250 units. The number of new project announcements is expected to be subdued until economic conditions and market sentiment improve.

• • • •

New supply is expected to exert further pressure on rental rates. Whilst some residents are expected to downsize and seek value-for-money properties, others will take advantage of the increased choice at lower rates to upgrade. Demand for office space will remain tepid and result in moderate rental rate declines, particular for buildings with lower quality specifications. Landlords will continue to offer incentives in the form of discounts on renewal and flexible payment options.

• •

Sales prices will continue to soften with the focus on competitive price points and attractive payment plans for off-plan and nearly completed projects. Whilst further drops are anticipated for 2019, we believe the rate of decline is likely to slow towards the end of the year.

Page 8: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

ABU DHABI ISLANDINVESTMENT AREA

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

PRIME PROPERTIES

HIGH END PROPERTIES

ABU DHABI ISLANDCentral Abu Dhabi

Corniche

Khalidya / Bateen

INVESTMENT AREA

Al Raha Beach

Marina Square

Saadiyat Beach

Shams Abu Dhabi

ABU DHABI APARTMENT RENTAL RATES

TYPE 3 BEDROOMS2 BEDROOMS1 BEDROOM

MID TO LOW END PROPERTIES

ABU DHABI ISLANDCentral Abu Dhabi

Corniche

Khalidiya / Bateen

INVESTMENT AREA Al Reef

OFF ISLAND Khalifa & MBZ City

ABU DHABI AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 20188

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

- - - - 125 125 125 128 123 108 108

- - - 120 130 130 140 145 145 138 128

- - - - 156 165 175 191 178 156 140

- - - 165 165 165 180 193 185 183 170

- - - - 230 235 265 275 253 215 203

- - - 220 250 255 255 275 248 240 235

165 110 90 80 85 85 90 95 90 85 80

185 135 120 95 85 105 120 120 90 88 83

185 135 120 90 85 105 120 123 113 98 85

- - 110 110 100 100 110 115 110 103 90

- - - - 80 85 100 105 98 85 70

- - - - - 110 120 130 120 113 103

- - - 95 95 110 115 115 98 80 73

250 140 140 130 110 135 145 150 139 123 106

280 160 160 155 125 135 150 153 138 123 113

280 160 160 140 125 155 160 165 146 123 113

- - 155 145 140 150 155 161 155 143 130

- - - - 110 130 140 148 133 115 108

- - - - - 150 175 179 174 167 148

- - - 130 130 150 155 154 143 113 106

290 175 175 160 130 165 175 177 170 155 148

365 240 240 225 180 225 245 243 203 173 145

365 230 230 190 155 210 215 213 190 173 158

- - 205 200 185 190 200 205 190 175 170

- - - - 140 170 175 185 175 155 140

- - - - - 190 210 233 213 200 175

- - - 165 165 170 195 193 173 150 140

145 85 70 60 55 70 75 76 75 68 55

155 120 95 80 70 80 80 86 85 74 63

215 120 100 80 90 100 105 103 103 82 73

225 145 145 120 100 105 120 125 115 105 91

265 145 145 110 100 140 145 148 133 122 105

325 175 175 155 130 155 170 165 148 127 115

155 120 100 75 65 80 80 81 79 71 58 225 130 130 95 90 110 120 121 111 95 80 325 170 170 125 110 135 145 146 138 123 109

- - - - 60 70 80 83 79 67 59 - - - - 75 85 100 104 103 88 73 - - - - 90 100 130 130 120 109 95

- 75 55 40 40 60 65 70 70 58 53 - 90 60 45 45 85 90 95 94 84 74 - 115 80 70 65 110 120 126 124 114 104

165 111 95 85 83 94 101 105 98 88 79 246 135 131 121 113 130 141 146 137 121 109 323 179 178 162 148 175 189 194 177 159 146

- -32% -15% -11% -2% 14% 8% 4% -7% -10% -10% - -45% -3% -8% -6% 15% 8% 4% -6% -11% -10% - -45% -1% -9% -9% 18% 8% 3% -9% -10% -8%

-52%

-4%

-25%

-56%

-4%

-25%

-55%

-1%

-25%

Page 9: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

ABU DHABI APARTMENT SALES PRICES

MA

RIN

A S

QU

ARE

YAS

ISLA

ND

AL

ZEIN

A

THE

GA

TE

AL

MU

NEE

RA

SUN

& S

KY T

OW

ERS

AL

BAN

DA

R

REEF

DO

WN

TOW

N

AED per sq.ft.

0 0500 5001,000 1,0001,500 1,5002,000 2,0002,500 2,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2,0001,0251,0251,0009651,175

1,2501,100950

1,3751,375

1,400

1,7501,1009001,0159301,175

1,3001,2251,100

1,3001,200

1,7501,1009009759251,175

1,5001,2751,200

1,5001,425

1,7501,3501,3001,2251,1001,425

1,7001,6001,425

1,6501,550

500550825

975875800

1,0251,000

2,4501,2501,2501,1301,0501,325

1,4001,2751,100

1,5001,475

1,175

1,3751,2251,100

1,5001,475

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 20189

Page 10: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

ABU DHABI ISLAND

Khalidiya / Bateen

Mushrif / Karama / Manaseer

Nahyan Camp / Muroor

INVESTMENT AREA

Al Raha Beach

Al Reef

Hydra Village

Saadiyat Island - Beach Villas

Hidd Al Saadiyat

OFF ISLAND

Al Raha Gardens

Golf Gardens

Khalifa City

Mohamed Bin Zayed

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

TYPE 3 BEDROOMS 4 BEDROOMS 5 BEDROOMS

ABU DHABI VILLA RENTAL RATES

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report -

ABU DHABI AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009

395

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

275 235 210 190 185 185 185 185 170 168 460 290 310 225 230 240 230 225 195 180 175 530 325 330 280 255 270 245 240 220 203 200

390 235 220 180 170 195 180 170 170 165 165 455 270 260 230 210 190 190 185 185 175 168 535 315 345 260 240 250 265 255 233 198 188

365 260 250 195 175 170 160 160 158 148 145 430 290 283 210 210 213 200 200 190 173 160 535 290 325 268 265 250 260 260 228 185 183

- - - - 220 250 250 255 205 185 185 - - - - 300 255 255 263 250 240 228 - - - - - 320 320 320 310 275 260

- - 115 130 105 120 135 145 140 123 110 - - 140 155 125 150 160 168 163 150 139 - - 165 175 150 170 190 190 180 163 150

- - - - - 90 90 103 105 93 84 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - 275 295 295 310 310 300 298 - - - - 305 295 330 375 375 335 325 - - - - 400 400 400 450 450 450 450

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 320 - - - - - - - - - - 540

380 205 185 175 165 175 190 193 183 173 158 420 230 210 210 200 210 243 245 218 188 175 475 240 260 270 270 285 290 290 250 215 205

- - 265 240 190 210 225 225 220 215 183 - - 200 285 260 255 260 260 253 235 195 - - 345 335 340 325 325 325 305 270 255

360 190 155 125 100 130 135 133 133 125 125 400 205 180 150 135 170 150 150 150 140 130 445 255 220 180 170 185 180 180 165 153 148

- - 170 110 95 123 108 108 108 108 108 - - 195 135 128 145 140 140 140 130 125 - - 205 153 140 175 168 168 158 155 143

Q4 201810

378 233 202 173 168 177 178 180 174 164 157 433 257 224 203 208 214 214 219 211 195 181 504 285 278 244 253 263 276 267 247 225 217

- -38% -13% -14% -3% 6% 0% 2% -3% -6% -4% - -41% -13% -9% 2% 3% 0% 2% -4% -7% -7% - -43% -2% -12% 3% 4% 5% -3% -8% -9% -4%

-59%

-7%

-13%

-58%

-13%

-17%

-57%

-14%

-19%

Page 11: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

ABU DHABI VILLA SALES PRICES

HYD

RA V

ILLA

GE

HID

D A

L SA

AD

IYA

TG

OLF

GA

RDEN

S

SAA

DIY

AT

BEA

CH V

ILLA

SW

EST

YAS

AL

REEF

VIL

LAS

RAH

A G

ARD

ENS

AED per sq.ft.

0 0500 5001,000 1,0001,500 1,5002,000 2,0002,500 2,500

600

630565530

660660

1300 850

1,200860850810770870

960940920

1,0201,020

1,375

1,5501,5351,440

1,5501,550

950600560520540745

800750660

835845

1,190900825770730890

1,050985870

1,1151,115

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 201811

Page 12: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

(All figures in AED per ft2 p.a.)

TYPE

ABU DHABI OFFICE RENTAL RATES

* Includes developments such as Al Maryah Island, Aldar HQ, International Tower, Nation Towers, Ittihad Towers, Capital Plaza, Etihad Tower, etc.

**Average excluding prime

FITTED*

FITTEDSHELL AND CORE

GOODTYPICAL BUILDINGABU DHABI AVERAGE**ANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

PRIME PROPERTIES

QUALITY STOCK

MATURE STOCK

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 201812

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

- - - - - - 215 215 210 190 190

320 179 156 135 111 114 111 118 104 100 94

- - 125 107 91 91 91 95 84 81 79

228 154 111 98 81 79 79 79 79 71 66

135 129 93 65 65 65 67 67 67 60 58

228 154 121 101 87 87 87 90 83 78 74

- -32% -21% -16% -14% 0% 0% 3% -7% -6% -5%

-67%

-15%

-17%

Page 13: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

1 Al Bandar – Raha Beach2 Al Bateen Wharf3 Al Gurm4 Al Maqtaa5 Al Muneera – Al Raha Beach6 Al Nahyan Camp7 Al Raha Gardens8 Al Rayanna9 Al Reef10 Al Zeina – Al Raha Beach11 Baniyas12 Bateen Airport Area13 Bateen Area14 Bawabat Al Sharq15 Capital District (ADNEC)16 CBD / Tourist Club Area17 Corniche 18 Danet Abu Dhabi19 Eastern Mangroves20 Golf Gardens21 Hydra Village22 Khalidia / Al Hosn / Al Manhal23 Khalifa City A24 Khalifa City B25 Maryah Island26 MBZ City27 Mina28 Mushrif / Karama / Manaseer / Muroor29 Officer’s City30 Rawdhat Abu Dhabi31 Reem Island - Marina Square32 Reem Island – Najmat Abu Dhabi33 Reem Island – rest of Shams Abu Dhabi34 Reem Island – City of Lights35 Reem Island – The Gate District36 Rihan Heights37 Saadiyat Beach District38 The Hills

YASISLAND

11

33

2211

14

11

17

132

22

31

25

19

33

35

34

32

37

36

38

29

15

18

28

24

6

12

4

26

2320

8

1

7

10 9

5

30

27

16

3

21

ABU DHABI PROPERTY MAP

Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 201813

Page 14: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DubaiTHE CITY OF INNOVATION

Page 15: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Inde

x Ba

se 1

00 =

Mar

ch 2

010

The line graph above demonstrates the average percentage sales and rental trend on a quarterly basis.

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Mar Jun DecDec SepSep MarMar JunJunSep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017

DUBAI | HISTORIC REVIEW

Apartment Sales Villa Sales Office Sales Apartment Rentals Villa Rentals Office Rentals

Dubai Real Estate Report -

RECESSION

2009 - 2011RECOVERY AND GROWTH

2012 - 2014STABILISATION

2015DOWNTURN

2016 - 2018

Q2 201815

The Dubai Real Estate market has gone through significant fluctuations over the years. Following the introduction of a decree allowing International Freehold Ownership in 2002, the market recorded substantial growth up until Q1 2009. This period was marked by large scale developments and project launches. The Real Estate market was fuelled by both strong demand from a rapidly expanding economy and workforce (leading to double digit rental growth and Investor returns) and, more problematically, Investor speculation. With the onset of the global financial crisis, loss of confidence, erosion of capital and drying-up of liquidity, speculators were driven from the market. This resulted in significant value contractions and ultimately the collapse of fundamentals underpinning the Real Estate market. Asteco also recorded noticeable Tenant migration from neighbouring Emirates due to decreased rental rates in Dubai. Sales activity remained subdued although transaction levels picked up slightly by the end of 2011. Many projects were delayed, put on hold or cancelled.

• • • • • •

The market began to show signs of recovery in 2012 when the Euro Crisis and Arab Spring conflict led to Dubai being an attractive alternative and ’safe’ haven to invest and live in. In November 2013, Dubai was awarded to host Expo 2020, which led to growth in market confidence, a rise in new project launches and increased sales and rental rates. Established communities and quality buildings experienced increased demand and newer developments saw improved take-up in line with enhancements in infrastructure. Whilst increased job security and market confidence prompted Tenants to upgrade, rapid rental growth also restricted Residents to move within Dubai and thus resulted in an upsurge in relocations to the Northern Emirates. In anticipation of the growing Investor demand, the Dubai Government doubled the land registration fee to 4%, and introduced new loan-to-value rules to limit property speculation.

• • • • •

The market peaked in Q2 2014 and corrected thereafter due to a combination of factors such as the reduction in LTV ratios, low oil prices and a strong US dollar. Rental rates remained broadly stable as the handover of new supply was slower than anticipated. Due to the substantial number of launches witnessed in the previous years, concerns of an oversupply and lack of demand particularly for high-end properties motivated Developers to focus on the mid and affordable housing sector, and to offer incentives such as extended payment plans during the post-completion stage. Lower deposits stipulated by Developers also made off-plan sales a more attractive option compared to the minimum 25% down payment required by the Central Bank for a mortgaged property.

• • • •

2016 and 2017 recorded a significant amount of new project launches and deliveries resulting in steady declines in sales prices and rental rates. Whilst new project announcements eased off in 2018, additional supply continued to have a downward effect on rates. The number and range of incentives increased as Landlords tried to retain Tenants and increase take-up, whilst Developers tried to motivate Buyers. A market driven by Tenants and Investors and an increased number of people looking for value-for-money options resulted in affordable developments outperforming luxury accommodation in terms of transaction activity. Developers increasingly offered smaller, off-plan units at lower price points with flexible post-completion payment plans, which resulted in an increase in first-time Buyers and End-users as home ownership became more accessible to people who were previously unable to jump on the property ladder due to high down payments. Initially, this resulted in a drop in demand for completed properties, but the slowdown in new project launches and the increased affordability lead to a rise in transaction volumes in the secondary market.

• • • • •

Page 16: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

APARTMENTSNO. OF UNITS

VILLASNO. OF UNITS

OFFICESMILLION SQ.FT.

COMPLETED IN COMPLETED IN EXPECTED IN

DUBAI SUPPLY

Dubai Real Estate Report -

9,250 2,835

2,195

Q1 - Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2019

24,300

550 8,500

1.36 1.5 3.6

Q4 201816

Page 17: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DUBAI HIGHLIGHTS AND OUTLOOK

TRENDS SALES PRICES RENTAL RATES PROJECT LAUNCHES INCENTIVES SUPPLY DEMAND - OFF PLAN DEMAND - COMPLETED

2018

2019

Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 201817

SUPPLY

RENTAL RATES

SALES PRICES

2018 HIGHLIGHT 2019 OUTLOOK

• • •

Asteco recorded the delivery of nearly 15,000 residential units over the course of 2018, comprising 12,000 apartments and 2,750 villas. Office supply volumes picked up towards the end of the year adding 2.86 million sq.ft. in total. As forecasted at the end of 2017, the pace of new project launches eased over 2018 as Developers adopted a more cautious approach in response to lower demand and growing supply.

• • •

Despite lower than anticipated handover volumes, the additional supply was still significant and resulted in steady rental rate declines across all asset classes throughout the year. Average declines of 10% for apartments, 10% for villas and 5% for offices were recorded for 2018, although some areas significantly under/outperformed. Landlords continued to offer incentives such as rent-free periods and multiple cheque payments.

• • • •

Similar to the leasing market, apartment, villa and office sales prices continued their downward trajectory during 2018, declining by an average of 13%. Emphasis continued to be unit price points, as opposed to the rate per sq.ft. A number of off-plan projects received a positive response from Investors. The steady decline in sales prices for completed projects has improved affordability and hence opened the market to a wider Investor pool and facilitated a rise in End-users and first-time Buyers.

• • •

Construction activity during 2019 (for committed projects) is expected to continue unabated, despite a slowdown in new project launches. This is largely due to construction-linked and post-completion payment plans, which ensure payments are only received when milestones are met. This supply, in addition to many project handovers previously scheduled for 2018 spilling over into 2019, will contribute to the total delivery of over 30,000 residential units. Commercial supply is earmarked to account for 3.6 million sq.ft. of office space.

• • •

Dubai’s Real Estate market will continue to mature throughout 2019 in line with increased transparency and improved regulatory conditions. Whilst the additional supply earmarked for 2019 will put further pressure on rental rates, the rate of decline is expected to slow towards the end of the year. Lower rental rates will enable more Tenants to upgrade in term of size/quality and/or location.

• •

Further sale price declines are expected in 2019 and although the focus will remain on affordable developments, transaction volumes are anticipated to rise as Residents take a longer-term view on living in Dubai. Whilst market conditions mean that it is unlikely LTV ratios will change, we believe that Developers, banks and other financial institutions will become more creative and introduce solutions to bypass the high down payment required to avail a mortgage.

Page 18: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DIFCDOWNTOWN DUBAIPALM JUMEIRAHSHEIKH ZAYED ROAD

BUSINESS BAYDUBAI MARINAGREENSJUMEIRAH BEACH RESIDENCEJUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERS

DEIRADISCOVERY GARDENSDUBAI SPORTS CITYINTERNATIONAL CITYJUMEIRAH VILLAGE

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

HIGH TO LUXURY END

MID TO HIGH END

AFFORDABLE

DUBAI APARTMENT RENTAL RATES

TYPE 3 BEDROOMS2 BEDROOMS1 BEDROOM

Dubai Real Estate Report -

DUBAI AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2011)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2014)

Q4 201818

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

- - - 73 80 103 113 113 105 100 90 - - - 115 130 158 173 158 160 145 120 - - - 145 170 198 235 230 190 190 175

133 85 70 68 80 98 118 115 115 95 83 185 120 100 100 125 160 170 175 160 130 115 275 165 150 150 180 228 245 240 225 190 170

200 113 90 90 95 135 150 135 130 110 98 228 145 120 120 140 175 208 198 175 155 138 300 200 170 170 190 223 243 255 235 200 180

160 83 70 68 83 98 113 100 95 90 80 203 130 105 100 110 148 148 130 125 115 110 290 175 120 120 135 195 200 175 165 150 125

- - 55 45 60 90 93 93 85 70 65 - - 85 70 85 130 135 135 125 105 90 - - 115 100 125 178 180 185 170 150 140

130 78 63 63 75 105 113 98 90 70 68 180 110 90 80 100 140 158 143 125 105 98 245 160 125 115 135 178 210 205 190 155 145

120 65 58 55 65 85 83 95 95 75 68 160 88 78 75 100 135 148 143 130 115 100 180 130 115 105 130 155 173 175 175 145 135

115 85 73 70 80 108 118 115 105 95 80 168 118 95 90 100 135 163 148 140 115 103 203 148 115 110 140 175 200 193 185 160 140

110 65 50 45 55 83 90 90 75 65 58 160 85 65 65 75 110 133 125 115 95 83 210 118 85 85 100 148 168 153 150 130 110

88 48 40 37 35 68 65 65 60 50 48 103 55 55 53 53 85 90 90 85 70 63 138 83 75 70 75 135 133 113 115 95 88

100 58 45 38 45 70 70 72 65 55 48 135 85 70 53 70 83 80 80 85 85 83 - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - 35 40 59 65 74 65 55 48 - - - 45 55 88 98 105 90 75 68 - - - - - - - - 125 100 85

70 44 27 23 24 43 46 50 45 40 35 93 63 39 38 38 65 63 65 63 55 53 - - - - - - - - - - 75

- - - 35 45 70 65 73 60 55 50 - - - 53 70 95 103 105 95 80 70 - - - 80 90 120 130 138 135 110 100

118 68 57 53 61 85 91 90 85 74 65 157 96 82 75 88 118 127 127 118 102 91 216 131 114 107 128 159 170 172 162 142 127

- -42% -16% -7% 15% 39% 7% -1% -6% -13% -12% - -39% -14% -8% 16% 35% 8% 0% -7% -14% -11% - -39% -13% -6% 19% 24% 7% 2% -6% -13% -11%

-45%

23%

-29%

-42%

21%

-28%

-41%

19%

-25%

Page 19: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DUBAI APARTMENT SALES PRICES

DO

WN

TOW

N D

UBA

I

INTE

RNA

TIO

NA

L CI

TY

PALM

JUM

EIRA

H

DIS

COVE

RY G

ARD

ENS

GRE

ENS

JUM

EIRA

H V

ILLA

GE

DIF

C

DU

BAI S

PORT

S CI

TY

JUM

EIRA

H L

AKE

S TO

WER

S

BUSI

NES

S BA

Y

DU

BAI M

ARI

NA

JUM

EIRA

H B

EACH

RES

IDEN

CE

AED per sq.ft.

0 0 0500 500 5001,000 1,000 1,0001,500 1,500 1,5002,000 2,000 2,0003,0002,500 3,0002,500 3,0002,500

2,7001,4001,3001,1001,3002,200

1,9001,7001,525

2,2002,325

1,050500425325350675

700650550

700710

2,8001,5001,1751,1001,4002,000

1,7001,5001,350

1,7202,000

1,250550500450450825

855800650

850885

1,7001,0508257759501,400

1,3501,2501,050

1,3651,375

1,100600500475500875

900800725

950925

2,7001,6001,5001,3001,3501,875

1,7501,6501,425

1,7001,875

1,600700550550600825

900850725

950975

1,4008507006507501,200

1,1501,125975

1,1501,250

2,0501,0007507009001,225

1,3001,175975

1,2101,300

1,8001,1001,0009251,0501,900

1,4501,2501,125

1,6001,750

2,0001,1009259251,0001,525

1,3001,2001,025

1,3701,625

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 201819

Page 20: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

ARABIAN RANCHESDUBAI SILICON OASIS (CEDRE VILLAS)

DUBAI SPORTS CITY (VICTORY HEIGHTS)

JUMEIRAHJUMEIRAH PARKJUMEIRAH VILLAGEMEADOWSMIRDIFPALM JUMEIRAHSPRINGSTHE LAKESUMM SUQEIMDUBAI AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2011)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2014)

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

TYPE 3 BEDROOMS 4 BEDROOMS 5 BEDROOMS

DUBAI VILLA RENTAL RATES

Dubai Real Estate Report -

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

275 140 125 125 155 213 215 203 195 155 145 335 180 160 160 220 285 300 243 235 190 183 425 265 250 250 285 365 343 303 285 250 220

- - - 150 175 220 223 205 170 165 150 - - - 170 200 230 225 213 195 170 168 - - - 180 260 275 253 235 200 190 190

- - - 150 155 205 195 180 175 155 150 - - - 165 180 220 250 215 210 180 175 - - - 220 275 320 313 305 300 245 220

325 160 140 140 155 195 215 190 190 175 163 400 190 160 160 185 238 275 253 210 195 185 450 225 200 200 220 310 350 285 270 230 215

- - - - - 195 220 218 210 175 165 - - - - - 250 290 245 245 200 188 - - - - - 295 340 290 275 255 230

- - - 90 125 155 163 160 160 145 120 - - - 110 150 165 178 170 170 145 125 - - - 145 165 180 210 208 185 160 150

325 180 180 180 210 230 238 233 210 195 190 350 240 200 200 225 250 275 260 260 225 210 425 265 225 225 265 285 310 285 285 250 230

240 100 80 80 90 138 133 130 120 105 93 260 120 110 105 115 165 155 150 150 130 115 275 165 125 125 140 175 175 175 170 150 135

375 270 275 275 325 350 350 333 320 275 245 550 340 315 315 400 495 485 420 400 390 350 800 450 450 450 500 723 725 675 600 500 465

250 125 105 105 140 163 195 180 180 145 135 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - 170 200 220 228 223 220 190 175 - - - 260 280 290 283 275 270 245 235 - - - 340 350 350 400 363 350 330 260

325 160 140 135 160 215 250 195 190 180 170 400 190 160 160 180 290 275 260 240 220 210 490 230 210 210 220 313 305 290 270 245 235

314 179 162 152 179 213 225 206 195 175 152 388 223 204 186 219 261 271 244 231 206 183 482 274 246 224 259 311 314 290 274 245 222

- -43% -9% -6% 18% 19% 5% -8% -5% -11% -13% - -43% -8% -9% 18% 19% 4% -10% -5% -11% -11% -43% -10% -9% 15% 20% 1% -8% -6% -11% -9%

-52%

0%

-32%

-53%

-2%

-33%

-54%

-1%

-29%

Q4 201820

Page 21: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

2,2008507507509501,225

1,1501,100950

1,0001,150

DUBAI VILLA SALES PRICES

JUM

EIR

AH

PA

RK

SPR

ING

S

DU

BA

I SPO

RTS

CIT

Y (V

ICTO

RY H

EIG

HTS

)

PALM

JUM

EIR

AH

DU

BA

I SIL

ICO

N O

ASI

S (C

EDRE

VIL

LAS)

MEA

DO

WS

AR

AB

IAN

RA

NCH

ES

JUM

EIR

AH

VIL

LAG

E

AED per sq.ft.

0 0500 5001,000 1,0001,500 1,5002,000 2,0003,0002,500 3,0002,500

1,5007256505508001,175

1,1001,000800

1,1001,175

1,8008506506509001,100

1,1001,000825

9501,075

1,5008507507509001,125

1,1501,050925

1,1501,250

2,7501,8001,5501,5001,8003,000

2,5002,4002,100

2,4752,850

1,000700550475500725

800750725

825850

2,2001,0008508501,0001,300

1,3001,2001,000

1,1501,350

1,100600500475550850

850750650

950975

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 201821

Page 22: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

BARSHA HEIGHTS (FORMER TECOM)BUR DUBAIBUSINESS BAYDIFCJUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERSSHEIKH ZAYED ROADDUBAI AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2014)

(All figures in AED per ft2 p.a.)

TYPE

DUBAI OFFICE RENTAL RATES

Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 201822

-67%

19%

-10%

350 105 75 60 55 85 100 110 95 95 85

360 150 110 90 80 95 105 108 100 100 85

- - - 75 70 100 103 88 90 90 75

525 370 230 220 225 220 235 255 250 245 215

235 100 60 50 50 90 95 98 95 95 80

425 215 160 140 140 175 180 185 165 150 120

350 173 114 96 94 117 126 130 127 122 114

- -51% -34% -16% -2% 24% 8% 3% -2% -4% -7%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Page 23: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DUBAI OFFICE SALES PRICES

JUM

EIR

AH

LA

KES

TO

WER

SD

IFC

BU

SIN

ESS

BAY

BA

RSH

A H

EIG

HTS

(F

ORM

ER T

ECO

M)

AED per sq.ft.

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 4,5002,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2,000900650550550925

850800675

9751,075

4,2501,9001,9001,8001,7001,800

1,9001,6501,500

1,9251,875

2,2001,250900750700975

1,2501,000875

1,2501,225

2,5001,100850750750825

900800725

975975

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 201823

Page 24: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DUBAI PROPERTY MAP

611

1 Akoya2 Al Barari3 Al Barsha 14 Al Furjan5 Al Nahda6 Al Qusais7 Al Warqaa8 Arabian Ranches9 Barsha Heights

(Tecom C)10 Bur Dubai11 Business Bay12 City Walk13 Culture Village14 Deira15 DIFC16 Discovery Gardens17 Downtown Dubai18 Downtown Jebel Ali19 Dubai Creek Harbour20 Dubai Design District21 Dubai Festival City22 Dubai Healthcare

City Phase 223 Dubai Hills Estate24 Dubai Investment

Park25 Dubailand

Residential Complex26 Dubai Marina27 Dubai Production

City (IMPZ)28 Dubai Silicon Oasis29 Dubai South30 Dubai Sports City31 Dubailand

32 Emirates Hills33 Green Community34 International City35 JBR36 Jumeirah37 Jumeirah Golf Estates38 Jumeirah Islands39 Jumeirah

Lakes Towers40 Jumeirah Park41 Jumeirah Village Circle42 Jumeirah Village

Triangle43 Living Legends44 Liwan45 Meydan46 Mirdif47 MotorCity48 Mudon49 Muhaisnah50 Palm Jumeirah51 Pearl Jumeirah52 Remraam53 Residential City54 Rigga Al Buteen55 Sheikh Zayed Road56 Springs / Meadows57 Studio City58 The Greens59 The Lakes60 The Villa61 Town Square62 Umm Suqeim63 Uptown Mirdiff64 Victory Heights

60

611

611

311

11

11

11

11

44

44

44

311

311

311

611

611

3526

39

4

1640

3

62

33

18

37

29

24

52

3064

47

57

8

1

48

61

43 2

23

31

41

42

27

2844

25

34

63

46

50

58

32

59

56

38

9

17

45

21

2022

11

36

51

10

15

12

55 14

54

5

6

7

49

13

19

53

To SharjahTo Abu Dhabi

Arabian Gulf

Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 201824

Page 25: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Northern EmiratesTHE CULTURAL CAPITAL OF ARAB WORLD

Page 26: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

The line graph above demonstrates the average percentage apartment rental trend on a quarterly basis. Sharjah Ajman Umm Al Quwain Ras Al Khaimah Fujairah

NORTHERN EMIRATES | HISTORIC REVIEWIn

dex

Base

100

= M

arch

201

0

160

140

120

100

80

60Mar Jun DecDec SepSep MarMar JunJunSep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017

Northern Emirates Real Estate Report - Q4 201826

RECESSION

2009 - 2012RECOVERY AND GROWTH

2013 - 2014STABILISATION

2015DOWNTURN

2016 - 2018

Following strong rental growth due to Residents being priced out of neighbouring Dubai, rental rates recorded rapid declines as a result of the financial crisis at the end of 2008. Consequently, a large number of Tenants took the opportunity to relocate to Dubai to avoid the long commute to work. Leasing activity in the Northern Emirates was slow and many new buildings that were delivered during this period remained vacant. Whilst Dubai and Abu Dhabi saw signs of recovery at the end of 2011 and 2012, the Northern Emirates only started to gain momentum in early 2013. Ras Al Khaimah was the exception and witnessed limited traction due to partially completed master-planned communities.

• • • • •

Rental rates in the Northern Emirates bottomed out in the beginning of 2013. Rising rates in Dubai accelerated increases in Sharjah, which fuelled the recommencement of previously stalled projects, specifically in the areas closest to Dubai, namely Al Nahda and Al Khan. In 2014, the government allowed non-Arabic Investors with a UAE residency visa to purchase property in the Emirate on a 100 year lease. The villa market in Ras Al Khaimah recorded strong sales activity as value-for-money options were readily available. The Sharjah office sector, however, remained stagnant and experienced only a 4% growth over the period due to limited demand.

• • • •

The interdependence between Dubai and the Northern Emirates manifested due to the slowdown recorded in Dubai, which resulted in a stagnant rental market in the Northern Emirates. The availability of superior products led to marginal rate reductions in more mature buildings as Tenants upgraded to newly-built accommodation. Continuous handovers of affordable units in Dubai encouraged Tenants to move (back) to the Emirate, and stalled relocations to the Northern Emirates. The office sector in Sharjah remained flat due to the supply-demand imbalance.

• • • •

Subdued market activity resulted in modest average declines in rental rates across all sectors and Emirates. Despite rent reductions and increased incentives, Tenants still opted for affordable units in Dubai. Early 2018, the law proposed in 2014 to allow non-Arab property investments was amended to include Investors without UAE residency visas. This, coupled with ongoing infrastructure development and diversification strategies, resulted in the rise of master-plan communities and large-scale projects. Diverse government initiatives announced and implemented during this period focused on promoting long-term economic sustainability.

• • • • •

Page 27: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

NORTHERN EMIRATES HIGHLIGHTS AND OUTLOOK

RENTAL RATES

PROJECT LAUNCHES INCENTIVES SUPPLY DEMAND RENTAL

RATESPROJECT

LAUNCHES INCENTIVES SUPPLY DEMAND

SHARJAH

AJMAN

UMM AL QUWAIN

RAS AL KHAIMAH

FUJAIRAH

TRENDS 2018 2019

Northern Emirates Real Estate Report - Q4 201827

2018 HIGHLIGHT 2019 OUTLOOK

• • • • •

The Northern Emirates remained an affordable alternative for mid-income earners. However, the continuous delivery of supply in Dubai and consequent drop in rental rates resulted in further rent declines in the Northern Emirates, particularly in Sharjah and Ajman due to their proximity to Dubai. Sharjah’s commercial sector also came under pressure with office rents recording quarterly and annual reductions of 1% and 6% respectively. There has been a marked increase in master-plan communities and individual project launches/announcements throughout 2018 and whilst some of the more ambitious projects have been scaled back, Developers, sometimes in conjunction with the local governments, are committed to completing them. This, coupled with the legislation published early in the year, allowing non-Arab nationals without a UAE residency visa to purchase properties in Sharjah on a 100-year renewable lease, has resulted in an increase in transaction volumes.

• • •

Asteco expects a significant amount of new supply across all Northern Emirates but particularly within Sharjah, which will result in further declines in rental rates. In addition, new inventory at reduced rates in neighbouring Dubai is likely to prompt more Commuter-Residents to relocate closer to their place of work. Similar to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the local governments of the Northern Emirates are introducing larger budgets and more diversification strategies to stimulate the economy and boost investment, which is expected to translate into employment/business growth and hence increased transaction activity in the Real Estate market.

Page 28: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

NORTHERN EMIRATES APARTMENT RENTAL RATES

SHARJAHTYPICAL

HIGH END

AJMANUMM AL QUWAIN

RAS AL KHAIMAHTYPICAL

HIGH END

FUJAIRAHNORTHERN EMIRATES AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

TYPE 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS

Northern Emirates Real Estate Report - Q4 201828

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

44 32 24 23 23 29 31 33 31 25 22 63 41 32 30 33 37 37 36 36 32 27 76 51 42 40 44 52 54 52 53 43 38

44 32 24 23 25 35 39 39 38 35 31 63 41 32 30 36 51 58 56 52 60 48 76 51 42 40 48 70 73 70 71 78 65

42 30 26 25 22 27 29 32 31 26 22 47 33 28 27 26 35 39 35 35 32 27 66 49 40 40 38 45 50 51 50 43 36

37 21 20 20 20 20 22 23 23 22 20 48 30 28 28 27 27 29 30 30 28 27 53 40 38 38 38 38 40 40 40 34 32

43 30 26 23 33 45 45 45 45 37 34 55 35 32 31 55 60 63 63 65 58 52 65 49 43 40 80 93 110 100 98 82 70

39 24 23 23 23 30 32 43 40 35 30 49 30 29 30 30 38 43 49 49 40 39 59 45 40 42 40 47 50 64 64 58 56

43 30 26 23 22 29 33 38 34 26 26 55 35 32 31 28 38 39 40 40 38 34 65 49 43 40 38 47 50 50 50 42 40

42 28 24 23 24 31 33 36 34 29 26 54 35 30 29 33 41 44 44 44 41 36 66 48 41 40 46 56 61 61 61 54 48

- -32% -16% -6% 5% 28% 7% 9% -4% -15% -10% - -35% -14% -3% 13% 22% 7% 1% -1% -7% -12% - -27% -14% -3% 16% 21% 9% 0% 0% -11% -11%

-37%

10%

-27%

-33%

8%

-18%

-27%

4%

-21%

Page 29: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

AL MAJAZAL QASIMIAHAL NAHDAAL KHAN (AL MAMZAR)ABU SHAGARAAL YARMOOKAL WAHDACORNICHESHARJAH AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

TYPE 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS

SHARJAH APARTMENT RENTAL RATES

Northern Emirates Real Estate Report -

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45 35 28 23 23 32 40 41 39 34 31 65 43 33 31 32 45 53 58 55 41 39 75 58 47 38 45 68 75 73 66 52 52

40 29 23 23 23 34 38 33 31 27 24 60 41 30 29 31 43 45 39 39 33 31 70 57 47 42 40 55 58 55 55 47 43

45 35 29 28 27 36 41 44 35 30 27 64 41 33 30 32 48 55 55 51 39 36 80 58 47 45 46 60 75 73 65 55 52

45 35 29 29 28 34 42 39 38 37 29 65 41 35 33 33 44 53 63 63 49 45 80 58 47 45 43 63 78 80 73 57 56

40 29 24 22 20 31 34 32 33 28 26 62 41 32 27 25 34 42 42 40 34 31 70 49 40 34 32 50 53 54 53 43 42

37 29 24 23 20 23 24 26 28 24 20 52 34 30 29 24 28 28 28 29 27 25 65 44 38 36 33 48 48 48 45 40 38

40 29 23 23 23 34 39 39 37 29 27 61 41 31 29 31 45 50 57 45 38 36 70 48 40 38 42 63 68 65 63 50 44

48 35 30 28 26 37 48 48 44 36 33 63 45 40 40 41 60 65 64 53 46 42 75 58 50 54 55 73 80 78 75 64 62

42 30 25 23 22 29 35 34 32 29 25 62 39 32 30 29 39 44 45 43 36 33 73 51 42 40 39 54 59 58 56 48 45

- -28% -19% -5% -4% 31% 19% -2% -5% -10% -13% - -36% -19% -6% -3% 35% 13% 2% -5% -16% -9% - -31% -16% -6% -3% 39% 8% -1% -4% -13% -6%

-41%

11%

-26%

-47%

12%

-27%

-38%

17%

-22%

Q4 201829

Page 30: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

AL TAAWUN ROADCORNICHE AREAAL WAHDAAL QASEMEHCLOCK R/AAL YARMOOKINDUSTRIAL AREASHARJAH AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

(All figures in AED per ft2 p.a.)

TYPE

SHARJAH OFFICE RENTAL RATES

Northern Emirates Real Estate Report - Q4 201830

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-64%

-17%

-16%

130 70 60 53 50 48 48 48 48 39 36

150 70 60 55 55 63 68 63 63 58 52

100 50 45 48 48 50 53 50 50 48 42

110 50 45 45 45 43 43 43 45 40 40

100 50 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 43 42

100 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 40 40 34

111 55 49 49 48 48 49 48 48 44 40

- -51% -11% 0% -1% 1% 2% -3% 0% -9% -8%

100 50 45 53 50 50 50 45 44 38 37

Page 31: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

NORTHERN EMIRATES MAP

Arabian Gulf

311

11

11

11

5

1

10

8

9

3

2

6

4

7

ABU DHABI

DUBAI

SHARJAH FUJAIRAH

RAS AL KHAIMAHUMM AL QUWAIN

AJMAN

SHARJAH

1 Abu Shagara2 Al Khan3 Al Majaz4 Al Nahda5 Al Qasimiyah6 Al Taawun7 Al Wahda8 Corniche / Buhaira9 Khaledia10 King Faisal and King Abdul Aziz Streets

Mina Al Arab

Marjan Island

1

2

Al Hamra

3

RAS AL KHAIMAH

1 Mina Al Arab2 Marjan Island3 Al Hamra

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Northern Emirates Real Estate Report - Q4 201831

Page 32: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Al AinTHE GARDEN CITY

Page 33: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Inde

x Ba

se 1

00 =

Mar

ch 2

010

The line graph above demonstrates the average percentage rental trend on a quarterly basis.

160

140

120

100

80

60

Apartment Rentals Villa Rentals Office Rentals

Mar Jun DecDec SepSep MarMar JunJunSep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017

AL AIN | HISTORIC REVIEW

Al Ain Real Estate Report - Q4 201833

RECESSION

2009 - 2012RECOVERY AND GROWTH

2013 - 2014STABILISATION

2015DOWNTURN

2016 - 2018

As with the other Emirates, the residential sector in Al Ain recorded a rapid drop in rental rates in 2009 following the recession. Apartment and villa rental rates decreased by 46% and 29% respectively, from their peak in 2008 until the end of 2012. The office sector followed a different trend as rental rates continued to increase until late 2009, but declined significantly thereafter. This was mainly due to a general lack of supply at the time.

• • • •

Residential rental rates stabilised in the beginning of 2013 and recorded notable growth in the latter half of the year. The delivery of new, quality villa projects resulted in a rapid increase in rental rates due to good levels of demand. Apartment rental growth was less pronounced with moderate increases of 9% and 8% in 2013 and 2014. Office rental rates continued to decrease due to the delivery of new office inventory. This had an adverse effect on occupancy rates, particularly in existing commercial villas with lower quality specifications.

• • • •

Whilst apartment rental rates recorded minor increases in 2015, villa and office rents remained broadly stable until the end of the year when they softened marginally. Low oil prices led to a reduction in government spending in the UAE as a whole, and thus to a slowdown in Al Ain Real Estate market activity.

• •

The reduction in staff housing allowances coupled with job cuts across several government departments put pressure on Real Estate demand. Apartment and villa rental rates recorded average declines of 21% and 20% since the end of 2015, whereas office and retail rents decreased by 10% and 12%, respectively. Quality residential communities with supporting facilities enjoyed healthy demand levels translating into higher occupancy rates. Several buildings were delivered in Al Ain during this period, including and predominantly located within the Hazza Bin Zayed (HBZ) Stadium project, a mixed-use development benefitting from healthy demand.

• • • •

Page 34: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

AL AIN HIGHLIGHTS AND OUTLOOK

TRENDS RENTAL RATES PROJECT LAUNCHES INCENTIVES SUPPLY

2018

2019

Al Ain Real Estate Report - Q4 201834

SUPPLY • • •

• • • •

RENTAL RATES Similar to 2016 and 2017, apartment and villa rental rates continued to decline with annual drops of 5% and 10%, respectively. Whilst Asteco recorded more pronounced rental decreases for buildings with lower quality specifications, premium communities with supporting facilities benefitted from higher demand, occupancy and rental levels. Headline office rental rates softened marginally by 4% over the year, although some commercial buildings recorded decreases of more than 10%. In order to retain Tenants and encourage take-up, landlords offered incentives including rent-free periods of up to two months and flexible payment terms (up to 12 cheques).

2018 saw the delivery of approximately 200 apartments, 250 villas and circa 10,000 sq.m. of office space. The majority of the apartment and office supply was focused within the Town Centre, Al Jimi and Asharej areas. The distribution of villas was more scattered, although more than 50% was located within the Ain Al Faida development. A number of projects anticipated for delivery in 2018 have been delayed and are now expected for handover in 2019.

2018 HIGHLIGHT 2019 OUTLOOK

Rental rates are expected to decline further across all asset classes in line with subdued demand and market sentiment. Occupancy levels in more mature building are expected to soften as Tenants relocate to better quality properties. Further discounts, particularly for units still priced above market rates, are expected in order to encourage retention.

About 500 residential units and 10,000 sq.m. of office space are anticipated for completion in 2019. Al Jimi Mall extension is due for handover during the first quarter of the year, whilst the Al Ain Hospital is earmarked to open by the end of 2019.

• • •

• •

Page 35: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

AL AIN APARTMENT RENTAL RATES

MATURE BUILDINGSNEW BUILDINGSAL AIN AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

TYPE 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS

Al Ain Real Estate Report -

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

50 35 25 23 23 29 33 33 31 27 25 70 55 45 43 35 39 43 45 43 36 35 90 75 60 53 48 51 53 56 54 48 48

60 50 38 28 28 32 38 38 36 31 31 75 65 58 45 45 45 48 52 45 41 38 95 85 73 55 58 63 65 68 67 61 58

55 43 32 26 26 31 36 36 34 29 28 73 60 52 44 40 42 46 49 44 39 37 93 80 67 54 53 57 59 62 61 55 53

- -23% -26% -19% 0% 20% 16% 0% -6% -13% -3% - -17% -14% -15% -9% 5% 8% 7% -9% -13% -5% - -14% -17% -19% -2% 8% 4% 5% -2% -10% -3%

-49%

10%

-21%

-50%

-9%

-25%

-43%

0%

-15%

Q4 201835

Page 36: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

MATURE VILLAS

Town Centre

Other

Zaker

Al Towaya

Al Jimi

RECENT BUILD

Town Centre

Other

Zaker

Al Towaya

Al Jimi

AL AIN AVERAGEANNUAL % CHANGE% CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008)% CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2012)% CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2015)

(All figures in AED 000’s p.a.)

TYPE 3 BEDROOMS 4 BEDROOMS 5 BEDROOMS

AL AIN VILLA RENTAL RATES

Al Ain Real Estate Report - Q4 2018

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

70 60 60 55 50 65 83 78 68 62 56 95 80 75 70 65 75 95 90 83 78 71 95 90 90 85 85 105 125 122 113 102 90

70 60 60 55 50 65 83 78 68 62 56 85 75 75 70 65 75 95 90 83 78 71 95 90 90 85 85 105 125 122 113 103 90

65 55 55 50 45 65 75 75 68 62 56 75 70 70 65 60 75 75 75 78 78 71 85 75 85 80 80 105 105 105 105 103 90

75 65 65 60 50 70 80 80 73 70 67 85 80 80 80 65 85 95 93 93 93 87 100 95 95 95 85 110 125 115 110 105 99

70 60 60 55 50 65 83 78 68 62 56 85 75 75 70 65 75 95 90 83 78 72 95 90 90 85 85 105 125 122 113 103 90

115 95 80 65 65 75 88 83 78 70 66 125 115 100 90 85 100 110 105 98 91 80 140 135 125 110 105 130 155 145 135 125 103

115 95 80 65 65 75 88 83 78 70 66 120 115 100 90 85 100 110 105 98 91 80 140 135 125 110 105 130 155 145 135 125 103

105 85 65 55 50 75 80 80 78 70 66 115 95 90 85 75 100 98 98 85 91 80 135 100 115 105 90 130 128 128 128 125 103

110 105 85 70 65 80 93 93 93 88 78 130 125 105 100 85 105 110 105 98 98 94 140 135 130 120 105 135 160 150 150 137 110

120 95 80 65 65 75 88 83 78 70 66 120 115 100 90 85 100 110 105 98 91 80 140 135 125 110 105 130 155 145 135 125 103

92 78 69 60 56 71 84 81 75 69 63 104 95 87 81 74 89 100 96 90 87 79 117 108 107 99 93 119 136 130 124 115 98

- -15% -11% -14% -7% 28% 18% -4% -8% -9% -8% - -9% -8% -7% -9% 21% 12% -4% -6% -3% -9% - -7% -1% -8% -6% 27% 15% -4% -5% -7% -15%

-31%

14%

-22%

-24%

7%

-16%

-16%

5%

-24%

36

Page 37: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

AL AIN OFFICE RENTAL RATES

AL AIN RETAIL RENTAL RATES

SEN

AYA

STR

EET

MA

IN S

TREE

T

MA

JOR

MA

LLS

SEN

AYA

STR

EET

KH

ALI

FA S

TREE

TA

UD

AL

TOU

BA

STR

EET

MA

IN S

TREE

TKH

ALI

FA S

TREE

T

AED per sq.ft. AED per sq.ft.

0 0500 5001,000 1,0001,500 1,5002,000 2,0002,500 2,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

800800900900550500

500500475

500500

9509501,1501,100975850

750750713

800850

1,0001,2001,3501,3001,5001,500

1,2501,2501,150

1,7001,500

8501,0501,1501,100975850

750750713

800850

1,2501,5502,2502,2502,2252,225

2,2252,2252,150

2,2252,225

9501,0001,1251,075925850

750750713

800850

9751,5001,7001,6501,8251,825

1,7001,7001,575

1,7001,825

1,0751,3501,7001,6501,8251,825

1,7001,7001,575

1,7001,825

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Al Ain Real Estate Report - Q4 201837

Page 38: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Town Centre

Al Jimi

Al Khabisi

Al Muwaiji

Al Masoudi

Zaker

Al Towaya

East Airport District

Al Foaa

Hili

Al Oattara

Al Buraimi

Al Mutaredh

Al Jahili

AlMutawa’a

Al Sarooj

Al Shuwaimah

Aflaj

Al KhrairDefence

Al Dhahir Um GhafahJebel Hafeet

NeimaAl Qisais

Al Shuaibah

Al Aqabiyya

Zoo District

Falaj Hazza’a

Asharej

Al Markhaniya

Al Dahmaa

Al Bateen

Al Maqam

Gharebah

Al Salamat District

Al Yahar South

Al Yahar North

Al AinInternational

Airport

SULTANATE OF OMAN

Khalifa Bin Zayed St.

Khalifa Bin Zayed St.

Moh

d Bi

n Kh

alifa

St

Baniyas St

Ardh

Jow

St

Emira

tes

St

Zayed Bin Sultan St.

Al Ain Real Estate Report -

AL AIN PROPERTY MAP

Q4 201838

Page 39: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Al Foaa

Al Dhahir Um GhafahJebel Hafeet

NeimaAl Qisais

Emira

tes

St

Page 40: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

Inde

x Ba

se 1

00 =

Mar

ch 2

010

The line graph above demonstrates the average percentage apartment rental trend on a quarterly basis.

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Abu Dhabi Ajman Al Ain Dubai Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah Sharjah Umm Al Quwain Market Low Market Peak

Mar Jun Dec

ABU DHABI

AL AINSHARJAH

UMM AL QUWAINRAS AL KHAIMAHFUJAIRAHAJMAN

DUBAI

Sep SepMar MarMar Jun JunSep Dec DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecMar Jun Sep DecJun Sep Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017

UAE PRICE COMPARISONPrice Movement from 2009 to 2018

Arab Spring and Euro Crisis u UAE equals safe haven Global financial crisis bursts Real Estate bubble Merger: Aldar & Sorouh

Expo 2020 announced

UAE Central Bank mortgage cap Qatar diplomatic crisis

OPEC oil production cut u Oil prices bottoming out

Brexit Trump

Merger: FGB and NBAD

UAE Centennial Plan 20712071

Abu Dhabi AED 50 Billion Stimulus Package50 Billion

Emaar & Aldar – Strategic Partnership

100 Years Leasehold for Non-Arabs in Sharjah100 YEARS

Oil Price Fluctuations & Trade Tensions

Page 41: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

We have raised our 2018 GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 2.3% (up from 2.0% previously) against a backdrop of rising oil production in H2. The oil sector is now seen growing by 0.7% this year – we previously forecast a 0.3% contraction. The economy is expected to accelerate further in 2019 to 2.9% (down from 3.1% previously due to the likelihood of supply cuts next year), supported by an expansionary fiscal stance and continued investment ahead of Expo 2020.

Oil production in the UAE continued its upward trend in the face of the tightening global oil market, which propelled Brent crude to US$85pb by late-October. Crude production rose from 3.05m b/d in September to 3.21m b/d in October, the highest level this year. But oil prices have retreated sharply in recent weeks to about US$60pb due to record US production levels and fears of a potential global economic slowdown due to trade wars. We have cut our oil price forecast for 2018 to US$72pb and for 2019 to US$70pb from US$76.5.

The UAE cabinet has announced long-term visas for investors, entrepreneurs, and specialized talents and scientists. The move is intended to attract and retain human capital in efforts to deepen economic diversification. The cabinet has also approved an expansionary federal budget of around US$16.3bn for 2019, which also usually reflects the direction of spending by the individual emirates. As such, government spending is expected to be supportive of growth in 2019.

In other developments, the UAE announced an FDI law that raises the ceiling of foreign ownership to encourage further investment into the economy. The UAE is already the top Middle East country in terms of FDI, attracting US$10.4bn in 2017.

GROWTH SEEN AT 2.3% IN 2018…GDP is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2018, up from just 0.8% last year, supported by expansionary fiscal policy and an improving investment climate, particularly in Dubai ahead of Expo 2020. But despite the UAE’s relatively diversified economy, the hydrocarbon sector still plays a key role, comprising around 30% of GDP. After a 3% decline in 2017, we expect the oil sector to grow by 0.7% this year due to:

• Higher oil output in 2018• And higher oil prices.

UAE: Inflation UAE: Real GDP growth

% year % year

Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics

1999 19912001 2003 19942005 19972007 20002009 20032011 20062013 20092015 20122017 20152019 2018

F’Cast F’CastMiddle East &North Africa Middle East &

North Africa

UAE

UAE

18

16

14

14

12

10

12

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

-4

-2

0 -6

Who we are - Oxford EconomicsOxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provide economic forecasting and modeling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Our best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact.

Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Mexico City, Miami, Milan, Paarl - South Africa, Paris, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington DC. We employ over 200 full-time people, including more than 120 professional economists, industry experts and business editors—one of the largest teams of macro economists and thought leadership specialists.

To find out more and request your free trial please contact Paul de Cintra on [email protected]

Oxford Economics - Q4 201842

Page 42: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

The UAE Civil Code provides for the different types of real property rights that exist in the UAE, save for long term leases, which are found in other laws as described below. Each real property right is distinct and gives the holder of such right a set of specified powers including a direct right over property. Freehold is the most superior right, which is perpetual in nature, whereas the others (i.e. musataha, usufruct) are for a limited period of time.

KEY FEATURES OF REAL PROPERTY RIGHTSFREEHOLD Freehold title of property is the most superior form of real property right and allows its owner to enjoy, occupy and invest in all types of land or property in perpetuity, and is evidenced by a title deed issued by the Dubai Land Department.

‘Law No. 7 of 2006 concerning Real Property Registration in the Emirate of Dubai’, read with the UAE Civil Code, permits UAE and GCC nationals to own freehold property interests (as well as leases up to 99 years, usufruct and musataha) anywhere in Dubai. The same right is also available to companies owned by UAE and GCC Nationals as well as public joint stock companies.

Foreign nationals are permitted to own freehold property in “designated areas” in Dubai approved by the Ruler of Dubai from time to time. Examples include Downtown Dubai, Business Bay, Arabian Ranches, Palm Jumeirah etc.

USUFRUCT RIGHTS Article 1333 of the Civil Code defines Usufruct as a “property right in favour of the usufructuary to use property of another and to exploit it provided that it remains in its original condition”. Thus, an owner of a building, unit or plot is eligible to enter into a usufruct agreement with a tenant permitting the tenant to use the leased property provided such property remains in its original condition subject to fair wear and tear.

The key rights and obligations of the usufructuary have been laid down in Articles 1337 to 1348 of the Civil Code. Most of the rights are standard to lease agreements (including right of enjoyment during the lease period, regular maintenance responsibility upon usufructuary and major works to be performed by the land owner etc), and the parties are permitted to vary certain provisions laid down in the Civil Code provided it is not against public policy.

Termination of usufruct is dealt with in Article 1344 of the Civil Code. A usufruct typically terminates upon expiry of 50 years unless agreed otherwise between the parties. Destruction of the leased property or waiver by the usufructuary or termination by court order due to misuse are some of the other grounds of termination. In the event that the usufructuary buys the leased property, thereby becoming the freehold owner, the usufruct ceases.

MUSATAHA RIGHTS Article 1353 defines musataha as “a right in rem conferring upon the owner thereof the right to build a building or to plant on the land of another.” Thus, musataha is very similar to usufruct but grants an additional development right to the musataha holder.

The musataha holder can obtain financing against his musataha right by virtue of Article 1355 of the Civil Code.

The maximum term of a musataha is 50 years. Either party has the right to terminate the musataha by two years prior notice in case the term is not fixed, in accordance with Article 1356 of the Civil Code.

Article 1357 of the Civil Code permits the musataha holder to assign or transfer his musataha right along with any improvements (such as a building built over the leased land) to a third party.

Termination of the musataha occurs upon expiry of the musataha period as agreed between the parties. Similar to usufruct, if the musataha holder buys the leased property, the musataha will terminate. Unless agreed otherwise, payment default by the musataha holder for a period of two years is also considered a ground for termination.

LONG TERM LEASE Dubai Administrative Resolution No. 134 of 2013 defines a long term lease as a lease for a term of more than 10 years and up to 99 years. UAE and GCC Nationals, and companies wholly owned by them, can enter into long term leases of properties located anywhere in Dubai. However, foreign nationals are only permitted to enter into a long term lease of all properties located in “designated areas” of Dubai as determined by the Ruler of Dubai. Long leases cannot exceed 99 years and must be registered in the Real Property Register in the Dubai Land Department pursuant to the requirements of Article 9 of Dubai Law No. 7 of 2006. It is important to note that Rental Dispute Settlement Centre does not have jurisdiction over long term lease disputes.

FEESThe Dubai Land Department charges the following fees for registration of the various property rights as prescribed by Dubai Executive Council Resolution 30 of 2013:

• Freehold – 4% of the total value of the sale contract• Long leases – 4% of the total rent value• Usufruct agreements – 2% of the property value• Musataha agreements – 1% of the total musataha value

CONCLUSIONUsufruct, musataha and long term lease are all regarded as real property rights in Dubai and must be registered in the Real Property Register at the Dubai Land Department in accordance with the laws. In the event of a dispute, Dubai courts have jurisdiction to decide over all property disputes in Dubai. Al Tamimi & Company’s award-winning Real Estate Practice provides a comprehensive range of legal services across the Middle East including Dubai, covering all areas relevant to the property industry including real estate ownership advisory and transactional work assistance.

(An extract of this article was previously published in Al Tamimi & Company’s publication, Law Update January 2015)

Author: Aruna Mukherji Key Contact: Tara Marlow, Partner, Head of Real Estate, Hotels & Leisure, Email: [email protected]

Al Tamimi & Company is the largest full service law firm in the Middle East with 17 offices across 9 countries. For more information, please visit www.tamimi.com.

Al Tamimi & Co. - Q4 201843

Page 43: Property Review UAE Real Estate Report5 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report - Q4 2018 RECESSIN 200 - 2011 Rapid Real Estate demand growth in an undersupplied market was followed by substantial

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Asteco Property Management believes to be reliable; however, no warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. Asteco Property Management will not be held responsible for any third-party contributions. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute Asteco Property Management’s judgment, as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Figures contained in this report are derived from a basket of locations highlighted in this report and therefore represent a snapshot of the UAE market. Averages, however, represent a wider range of areas. Particularly exclusive or unique projects have been excluded from the data to avoid distorting averages. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of forecast information. However, actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts, by their very nature, involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond Asteco Property Management’s control. For a full in-depth study of the market, please contact Asteco Property Management’s Research team. Asteco Property Management LLC. Commercial License No. 218551. Paid-up Capital AED 4,000,000. | ORN 180

20181111/astrep866

About Asteco

The Middle East’s largest full service Real Estate Services Company, Asteco was formed in Dubai in 1985. Over the years, Asteco has gained enormous respect for consistently delivering high quality, professional, value-added services in a transparent manner. It is also widely recognised for its involvement with many of the projects that have defined the landscape and physical infrastructure of the Emirates.

Asteco has an essential combination of local knowledge and international expertise. A deeply established brand, renowned for its application of the latest technological advances, its commitment to transparency, winning strategies and human expertise. Undisputed Real Estate experts, Asteco represents a significant number of the region’s top property Owners, Developers and Investors.

VALUATION & ADVISORY Our professional advisory services are conducted by suitably qualified personnel all of whom have had extensive Real Estate experience within the Middle East and internationally.

Our valuations are carried out in accordance with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and International Valuation Standards (IVS) and are undertaken by appropriately qualified valuers with extensive local experience.

The Professional Services Asteco conducts throughout the region include:

• Consultancy & Advisory services• Market research• Valuation services

SALES Asteco has established a large regional property Sales division with representatives based in the UAE, Qatar and Jordan. Our Sales teams have extensive experience in the negotiation and sale of a variety of assets.

LEASING Asteco has been instrumental in the Leasing of many high-profile developments across the GCC.

ASSET MANAGEMENT Asteco provides comprehensive Asset Management services to all property Owners, whether a single unit (IPM) or a regional mixed-use portfolio. Our focus is on maximising value for our Clients.

OWNERS ASSOCIATION Asteco has the experience, systems, procedures and manuals in place to provide streamlined comprehensive Association Management and Consultancy services to residential, commercial and mixed-use communities throughout the GCC Region.

BUILDING CONSULTANCY The Building Consultancy Team at Asteco have a wealth of experience supporting their Clients throughout all stages of the built asset lifecycle. Each of the team’s highly trained surveyors have an in-depth knowledge of construction technology, building pathology and effective project management methods which enable us to provide our clients with a comprehensive building consultancy service.

FRANCHISE Our brand, network, system and procedures are now available in territories across the MENA region. Our Licensing services currently include Real Estate Brokerage Franchising and associated support services with many of the key elements designed specifically around the Franchisee, making it a truly unique and bespoke franchise opportunity.

Elaine JonesFRICS

Executive Chairman and Founder / Director - Transactional Services+971 4 403 [email protected]

John Stevens MSc, BSc (Hons), MRICS

Managing Director/ Director - Asset Management+971 4 403 [email protected]

John Allen BSc, MRICS

Executive Director - Valuation & Advisory+971 4 403 [email protected]

James Joughin BSc (Hons), MRICS

Senior Associate Director - Head of Valuations +971 4 403 [email protected]

Jenny Weidling BA (Hons)

Manager - Research and Advisory, Dubai+971 4 403 [email protected]

Ghada Amhaz MSc

Manager - Research and Advisory, Abu Dhabi+971 2 626 [email protected]

Tamer Ibrahim Chaaban BE

Associate Director / General Manager - Al Ain+971 3 766 [email protected]

20181111/astrep866