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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Propane Market Update
March 28, 2018 | Washington, DC(Inventory data as of 03/23/18; residential heating fuel prices as of 03/26/18)
ByU.S. Energy Information Administration
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-185-year range inventory level rolling 5-year Avg
PADD 1A (New England) propane inventories above the 5-year averagePADD1A propane* inventoriesmillion barrels
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 *propane/propylene for fuel use only
U.S. Energy Information Administration 2
PADD REGIONS
1B2
3
45
1C
1A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-185-year range inventory level rolling 5-year Avg
PADD 1B (Mid-Atlantic) propane inventories above the 5-year averagePADD1B propane* inventoriesmillion barrels
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 *propane/propylene for fuel use only
U.S. Energy Information Administration 3
PADD REGIONS
1B2
3
45
1C
1A
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-185-year range inventory level rolling 5-year Avg
PADD 2 (Midwest) propane inventories within the 5-year rangePADD 2 propane* inventoriesmillion barrels
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 *propane/propylene for fuel use only
U.S. Energy Information Administration 4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
inventory level (difference from 5-year average)
PADD 2 (Midwest) propane inventories below 5-year-average levelsPADD 2 propane* inventories, difference from 5-year averagemillion barrels
above5-year average
below5-year average
5U.S. Energy Information Administration
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 *propane/propylene for fuel use only
Selected state propane* inventories
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through Mar. 23, 2018
6U.S. Energy Information Administration
*propane/propylene for fuel use only; inventories include stocks at terminals, gas plants, and refineries only
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Kansas propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Michigan propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Illinois, Indiana, Ohio propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin propane stocksthousand bbls
5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-185-year range inventory level rolling 5-year Avg
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) propane inventories within the 5-year rangePADD 3 propane* inventoriesmillion barrels
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 *propane/propylene for fuel use only
7U.S. Energy Information Administration
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
inventory level (difference from 5-year average)
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) propane inventories below the 5-year averagePADD 3 propane* inventories, difference from 5-year averagemillion barrels
above5-year average
below5-year average
Source: EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 *propane/propylene for fuel use only
8U.S. Energy Information Administration
Propane spot prices above same time last year; Conway, KS discount to Mt. Belvieu, TX at ~14¢/gal and narrowingPropane spot prices (Conway, KS and Mont Belvieu, TX)dollars per gallon
Source: EIA, Bloomberg, data through March 26, 2018
9U.S. Energy Information Administration
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Conway(2016-17)
Conway(2017-18)
Mont Belvieu(2016-17)
Mont Belvieu(2017-18)
This Winter(2017-18)
Last Winter(2016-17)
NOAA’s projected temperatures: April 2 – Apr. 6, 2018, and April 4 – Apr. 10, 2018
• NOAA weather projections into April suggest a return of colder-than-normal temperatures through the first week of the month across much of the Midwest, New England, and Mid-Atlantic regions
• With highest probability of below-normal temperatures centered on the Great Lakes region, there is a possibility of heating season stretching into April, resulting in above-average heating fuel demand in an area with high propane market share
10U.S. Energy Information Administration
A = temperatures above normal
N = equal chance thattemperatures are above normal, normal, or below normal
B = temperatures below normal
Source: NOAA, Mar. 27, 2018
12
3
45
Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs)
Generally, tariff on the TEPPCO* pipeline sets the ceiling in the Northeast; recent fall in non-LST propane at Mt. Belvieu drove decline in Selkirk price
TEPPCO = Enterprise TE Products Pipeline Company LLCSource: EIA, Bloomberg, data through March 26, 2018; Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Effective Tariffs, FERC No. 54.42.0
propane spot pricesdollars per gallon
11U.S. Energy Information Administration
propane price spreaddollars per gallon
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Selkirk, NYMont Belvieu, TX
approx. TX-NY TEPPCO tariff (RS)
Mt. Belvieu to Selkirk spread (RS)
State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP) updates• SHOPP is a collaborative program between states and EIA that provides weekly
wholesale and retail prices for heating oil and propane at the state level
• EIA has extended SHOPP (beginning October 2014) to include 14 additional states in propane price data collection
• 10 new states were added to the wholesale propane price survey in 2016. This should be taken into consideration when comparing the average prices for last year (2015-2016 season) for the U.S., PADD 1, PADD 1B, PADD 1C, and PADD 2 averages
• EIA is providing more granular inventory data to states on a weekly basis since the 2016/2017 heating season
• New winter fuels page provides easier access to state-level information: www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels
U.S. Energy Information Administration 12
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Maps of states participating in Winter Fuels Survey
13
Source: EIA, Heating Oil and Propane Update
PADD 1dollars per gallon
PADD 2dollars per gallon
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Retail propane prices this heating season in PADD 1 and PADD 2 are above prices reported for the same week last year
Source: State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through March 26, 2018
14
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
heating oil (2017-18)propane (2016-17)
propane (2017-18)
heating oil (2016-17)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
heating oil (2017-18)
propane (2016-17)
propane (2017-18)
heating oil (2016-17)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Various days-of supply/disposition measures
Note: *disposition = domestic product supplied + exportsSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, data through March 23, 2018 For more information, please see EIA’s webinar on Propane Market Indicators and Measures of Supply Adequacy
U.S. weekly stocks of propanedays of supply & disposition
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140days of supplydays of disposition*days of supply under severe winter conditions
For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
Winter Heating Fuels Site | www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/
Movements of Propane by Rail | http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_railNA_a_EPLLPA_RAIL_mbbl_m.htm
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Energy Explained – Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids | http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=hgls_home
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
U.S. Energy Information Administration 16