Project title: Implications of climate change, land use and adaptation interventions on water resources and agricultural production

in transboundary Amu Darya river basin

Project PI: Zafar Gafurov z.gafurov@cigar.org

National Researcher on Remote Sensing and GIS

International Water Management

Institute

Project duration: 3 years (01.12.2016 – 30.11.2019)

• US Partner

Dr. John D. Bolten of NASA/GSFC • Local and Regional Partners

Sagit Kurbanbaev - Hydrologist, Institute of Irrigation and Water Problems in Nukus, Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan Dr. Akmal Akramkhanov - International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) Yarash Pulatov - Tajik Scientific Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Land Reclamation,

Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan

Mohammad Qaasim Yahyah - Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Balkh University, Afghanistan

PROJECT PARTNERS

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

The project focuses on analysis of climate change dynamics, land use and land cover change analysis and on study of different irrigation practices in the Amu Darya basin. This project has established field sites in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan to collect field based data and analysis. It consists of three main specific work components with each aiming to address the issues described above using field studies, remote sensing and numerical modeling. The project covers technical and institutional analysis, with the focus being on: • Assessment of spatio-temporal changes in land use, ensuing crop water use (Evapotranspiration ET) and creation

of annual crop maps for irrigated areas of Amu Darya basin using remote sensing information and evaluating with field measurements using multiple field sites in riparian countries;

• Evaluation of overall hydrological behavior of the Amu Darya basin to forecasted land use and climate change

using SWAT model; • Assessment of socio-economic impacts of various adaptation interventions on agricultural production at basin

scale for future scenarios.

STUDY AREA

Amu Darya is the largest river in Central Asia with a catchment area of 534,739 km2 and length of 2,400 km. It is a transboundary river shared by Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

• Improved data availability, quality and reliability on water and land resources in the Amu Darya basin • Increased knowledge and awareness of water and land resources in the region to enable better

decision making and management practices • Evidence-based water and land resources management policies and practices in the Amu Darya basin

and the greater Central Asia region • Enhanced cooperation on land and water resources management and on CC between participating

countries in transboundary context (i.e., targeted programs that address and mitigate effects of CC) • Improved land- and water-use efficiency • Better socioeconomic outcomes (e.g., health, nutrition, employment, gender, migration, education) for

the general population in the region • Better environmental outcomes (e.g., ecosystem, sanitation, water and land quality, etc.) in the region

EXPECTED OUTCOMES

DATA COLLECTION 1. Data from meteorological observations

• Meteorological data - Daily data on rainfall, temperature (min, max), solar radiation/sunshine hours,

wind speed, humidity. Meteo data has to be spatially distributed.

• River flow, water discharge – Daily data on water discharge, from as many

stations/gauges/hydroposts as possible

2. Land use map is being produced using MODIS data for the entire Aral Sea basin.

3. Digital Elevation Model – Collected for entire Aral Sea basin from Aster GDEM2

4. Soil maps

• FAO/UNESCO

• Uzbekistan soil type map (digital version)

• Tajikistan soil type map (analogue verion)

• Afghanistan soil region map (analogue version, data from USDA)

DATA SOURCES

We are focusing on collecting data from local sources, such as Hydromet center, Soil institutes, land management organizations and BISA’s and BWO Amudarya

LANDSAT AND MODIS DATA Total Landsat images to cover the entire Amu Darya basin: 23 Total MODIS images to cover the entire Amu Darya basin: 4

PROJECT OUTPUTS: CAPACITY BUILDING

Supervision of students: 16 Undergraduate students: 8 Master’s students: 5 Doctoral students: 3 Training materials developed: 1 Training on application of GIS and Remote Sensing in land and water resources Three trainings and a summer school were organized for junior researchers, Master’s and Ph.D students from institutes and universities in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. List of developed models for analysis of satellite images and its platform: - Tool for analysis on spatio-temporal variation of vegetation coverage. Platform: Integration of Java API of Google Earth Engine and ArcMap model. - Tool for irrigated land delineation analysis in drylands. Platform: Java API of Google Earth Engine. - Tool for NDVI calculation. Platform: ArcMap model.

PROJECT OUPTUTS: OUTREACH

Events organized: 38 (conferences, meeting, field trips, trainings, etc.) Female participants: 236 Male participants: 627 Number of technical presentations: 23 (conferences, meeting, field trips, trainings, etc.) Meetings: Private companies: 10 (OASIS FES LLC, NBT, Hydrosolutions LTD, TomTom N.V, etc.) Non-Governmental Organizations: 10 (CAREC, AMU-BWO, KRASS, CABI, ITC, ICBA, GFZ, etc.) Governmental Agencies: 25 (MAWR of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, USGS, SDC, ESA, ISTC, etc) USAID Missions: 6

PROJECT OUTPUTS: PUBLICATIONS

Publications: 1. Gafurov, Z., Eltazarov, Z., Akramov, B., Yuldashev, T., Djumaboev, K., and Anarbekov, O. (October 31, 2018). Modifying Hargreaves-Samani Equation for Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration in dryland regions of Amudarya River Basin. Journal of Agricultural Science, Vol. 9, No. 10., pp. 1354-1368. DOI: 10.4236/as.2018.910094 2. Gafurov, Z., Kattakulov, F., and Eshmuratov, D. (July 2016). Water surface dynamical change analysis of Sudochi Lake in Aral Sea area using Remote Sensing information. Irrigatsiya va Melioratsiya Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 30-32, ISSN 2181-8584. 3. Eltazarov, S., Pulatov, A. and Ritzema, H. (2017). Methods of soil salinity assessment and its dynamics in Syrdarya province, Uzbekistan. Journal of Geographical Society of Uzbekistan, Volume 50. pp. 40-48. Drafted paper: - Spatio-temporal variation of vegetation coverage in Aral Sea Basin

TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR REGIONAL PARTNERS

LITERATURE REVIEW

LITERATURE REVIEW

CLIMATE DATA CMIP 5 DATASET

Grid vs Station Points

MODELING

Soil type Land use map River flow, water discharge Weather and climate data Digital elevation model Satellite images etc. Baseline data – last 10-15 years would be sufficient

Socio–economic analysis Demographics (population, age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, education, etc.) Migration Economics (income, employment, occupations, etc.) Housing

Google Earth Engine + ArcGIS for the first time an automated model were generated to calculate Actual ET

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Automatically delineated sub-catchments of the Aral Sea Basin

.

DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN

Map produced by IWMI-CA within the framework of the project

"Implications of climate change, land use and adaptation interventions on water resources and agricultural production in Transboundary Amu

Darya river basin" funded by USAID PEER Cycle 5.

WORK PLAN FOR 2019

• Analyze collected data on irrigated areas, land use patterns, soil types, topography, water resources and agricultural crops

• Finalize processing of land use and land cover change analysis for Amudarya river basin (1975 - 2017)

• Finalize annual irrigated area mapping and prepare land cover/use analysis using remote sensing data for the entire Amudarya River Basin

• As part of the socioeconomic assessment, analyze collected data and information on socio-economic conditions within riparian countries in the Amudarya basin, which includes conducting a systematic literature review, conducting statistical research, and managing and analyzing data from fieldwork and surveys

• Complete SWAT model analysis using collected data and identify gaps and issues that need to be addressed in terms of data and methodology

• Organize workshop for project partners and other stakeholders to review project progress and make suggestion for improvements in project activitie

• Continue to conduct capacity building activities for students and researchers about developed methods and tools based on project findings to date

• Prepare joint research publications with project partners based on project findings, collected data and analyses

• Prepare policy briefs based on project findings and continue to promote the use of developed models and tools and produced maps by relevant decision makers, especially national and local government agencies, perhaps through policy dialogues and policy exchanges

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!