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Project Risk ManagementFor IT Professionals
António VieiraManager, Viatecla SA
III Encontro Da Comunidade SQLPORTLx, 2010-07-13
Maybe you’ve heard one or two of this….
• I did everything right but this was just unexpected…
• It’s not our fault, they didn’t deliver the servers on the agreed schedule.
• Ops, the restore is not working… We just lost very important data!
• We are delayed because I got unskilled team members and I assumed top level programmers.
“Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on a project objective.”
• Uncertain: the event might occur with a determinate probability and impact
• Positive or a negative: if the event occurs it can have a positive or negative impact on the project
• Project objective: the impact is measured on the project objectives
• probability: the risk probability measures the level of uncertainty over the occurrence of the risk.
• impact: the risk impact measures the degree that it affects one or more project objectives
• Probabiliy x Impact: the overall value for the risk. Can be measured in money (Expected Monetary Value)
Impact can be over one of the 4 types of project concurrent objectives (Triple-Constraint)
Project
Scope
Cost
Quality
Time
“Risk Management is the systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk”
Goals on Risk Management:
– Maximize the probability and impact of positive events
– Minimize the probability and impact of negative events
– Give confidence and control of the risk tolerances of Stakeholders
PMI steps in Risk Management
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative
Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative
Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Responses
Monitor & Control
Risks
Planning Monitoring & Control
Threats Response Strategies
• Avoid: Change the project plan in a way the risk does not longer exists (probability or impact)
• Transfer, Deflect or Allocate: Decision to transfer the responsibility for the risk impact and management to an external entity (insure, subcontract)
• Mitigate: Include changes to the plan that reduce the probability and/or impact of the risk.
• Accept : Project plan is not changed. A contingency allowance is added as reserve to the project.– Passive Acceptance: No plan is developed. A workaround will be implemented if
the risk is triggered.– Active Acceptance: A contingency plan is developed to implement when the risk
is triggered. A fallback plan can be implemented as a backup of the contingency plan.
Opportunities Response Strategies
• Exploit: Remove the uncertainty on this opportunity.
• Share: Decision to transfer the responsibility for the risk impact and management to an external entity that might get greater benefits.
• Enhance: Include changes to the plan that increase the probability and/or impact of the risk.
• Accept : Project plan is not changed.