Project Parametric Estimating

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Project Parametric Estimating

Techniques for developing an Estimating Model That Works

Presented by:

Creg Schumann &

Joseph Kestel

04/21/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J

Agenda

Review Estimating Concepts and TerminologyEstimating MethodsEstimating Tools

InputsOutputs

Developing a Parametric ModelMQ & FA

(Many Questions & Few Answers)



Estimating Concepts and Terminology

Top DownStart with a high level budget (effort, duration, etc.) Break down to the detail of “what” can be done

Bottom UpDetermine “what” must be built. Roll up the effort to higher level tasks/activities/phases

ComparativeCompare to similar projects and extrapolate (Niku 6, Primavera, MS Project Central, PM Office, Artemis, etc.)

ExpertExpert judgment methods such as Delphi, Wideband Delphi, Round Robin



Estimating Tools

Parametric Modelhttp://www.ispa-cost.org/Models that define at a low level what must be built/accomplished/etc. and how that low level is translated into an estimate of effort, duration, cost, and schedule.Simplistic example: Five widgets must be produced, the team can produce 2.5 widgets in one day, one widget costs $1,000 to build (labor and material), two widget machines are available, 50% of construction time is added for machine maintenance.

3 days effort (1 for maintenance), 1.5 days duration, $5,000 cost



Estimating ToolsCOCOMO Model

http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.htmlTakes size of work to be done, applies formulas with risk factors (scaling factors and effort multipliers) to determine person months of effort. Also can be used to determine potential duration and staffing models.

Function Point Modelhttp://www.ifpug.org/Method of providing size as input to other estimation models/tools (SEER/SEM, Cost Xpert, Construx Estimate, Estimate Pro, COCOMO, various Parametric Models, etc.)



Inputs to Estimating ToolsRequirementsData (if available)

Corporate EffortBreakout

IndustryEffortBreakout

Risk FactorsEffort MultipliersScaling Factors



Outputs from Estimating Tools

Completed Work Breakdown StructureUpdated RequirementsUpdated Risk AssessmentRevised Capability AssessmentInitial Resource Cost Estimates (Budget)



Developing a Parametric Model

Our Goal:To develop a (parametric) model that would reduce the time to estimate project effort based on initial high-level project requirements




Our Objectives:Shorten the process from high-level requirements definition through to WBS generation

Estimate-to-Plan in nothing flat!

Utilize corporate and industry data to drive accuracy of the modelKeep it simple!

Users should be able to easily understand it and adjust it!

ProjectProfile

WBS




Identify Parametric OpportunityDesign a Preliminary Parametric ModelCalibrate and Validate the ModelIncorporate With Organizational Policies and ProcessesMaintain and Improve the Model

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Identify Parametric Opportunity

Where is Parametric Estimation Applicable?Where processes are reliable and repeatableWhere sufficient historical data exists to draw parametric relationshipsWhere sufficient industry data exists to draw parametric relationshipsWhere an organization is large enough to be able to take frequent advantage of such a model and promote maintenance of the model

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Design a Parametric Model

Our Process:Tie high-level requirements definition as input to estimating model

Assure that inputs are base on your business practices and nomenclatureAssure that input criteria are understood and well documented

ProjectProfile

EstimatingModel

WBS

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain




The Project Profile: “Identify the What”What are some typical inputs for your industry?

Software DevelopmentFinancial ServicesRetailConstructionUtility/TelecomGovernment

Please document inputs on the Breakout Session sheets

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain




Our Project Profile:

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain




Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain

TTS Pyramid Pyramid Pete

Detail Counting Area

Data Entry Low Average High Functional Area Data Entry

Screens 8 2 2 Tables Referenced 1-4 Data Elements 5-15 Data Elements

0 0 0 0-1 Low Low

0 0 0 2 Low Average

0 0 0 3+ Average High

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

Insert Row(s) Above This Holder 0 0 0 None

Data Entry Totals 8 2 2

Reports Low Average High Functional Area Reports

Reports 4 6 1 Tables Referenced 1-5 Data Elements 6-19 Data Elements

0 0 0 0-1 Low Low

0 0 0 2-3 Low Average

0 0 0 4 + Average High

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0


Reports Totals 4 6 1

Query Screens Low Average High Functional Area Queries

0 0 0 LOW:

0 0 0

0 0 0 AVG:

0 0 0

0 0 0 HIGH:

0 0 0


Query Totals 0 0 0

Multiple and intricate data-element transformations

Multiple and complex file (table) references

Complexity

Complexity Key

One or two columns, Simple data transformations

Simple data transformations

Multiple columns with sub-totals

Multiple data-element transformations

List as detailed as you can the various areas of the application you are estimating. If you are unable to get to a very detailed level, use budgeting (10 avg. complex reports) and place that description in your project proposal.Use the tables to the right to judge complexity (low, avg., high).




Our Process: “Build the Bridge”Create an estimating model that will feed tasks within the standardized WBS template

Establish relationships between estimate inputs and each deliverables-based task within your high-level WBS

Many-to-One relationshipsOne-to-One relationships

ProjectProfile

EstimatingModel

WBS

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain




Our Process: “Build the Bridge”Account for the variables:

Establish initial base hours or percentages of grouped hours to accomplish individual tasks

ProjectProfile

EstimatingModel

WBS

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain




Our Estimating Model:

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Design a Parametric Model123456789

1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041

AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AIFP Estimate Hours Est. Cost

3323.29 $172,810.94

Data Entry Forms Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 8 3 24 24.96 280.84 52 $14,603.74Avg 2 4 8 8.32 93.61 52 $4,867.91High 2 6 12 12.48 140.42 52 $7,301.87Total 12 44 45.76 514.88 $26,773.53

Reports Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 4 4 16 16.64 187.23 52 $9,735.83Avg 6 5 30 31.2 351.05 52 $18,254.68High 1 7 7 7.28 81.91 52 $4,259.42Total 11 53 55.12 620.19 $32,249.93

Tables (Logical) Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 21 7 147 152.88 1720.15 52 $89,447.91Avg 4 10 40 41.6 468.07 52 $24,339.57High 0 15 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 25 187 194.48 2188.22 $113,787.48

Import/Export Files Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 0 5 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Avg 0 7 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00High 0 10 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 0 0 0 0.00 $0.00

Query Screens Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 0 3 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Avg 0 4 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00High 0 6 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 0 0 0 0.00 $0.00

Objects Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 0 4 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Avg 0 5 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00High 0 7 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 0 0 0 0.00 $0.00

Total UA/FP 284 295.36VAF: 1.04

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Design a Parametric ModelOur Process: “Create the Plan”

Utilize and update corporate WBS template Adjust for time reporting and earned value calculations (Develop a High-Level Stage/Activity WBS that eliminates confusing detail!)

Make the WBS deliverables-based!Manage the details in a detailed WBS outside of this WBS as a detailed checklist or task-listThis High-Level WBS should only be used for time reporting and earned value calculations

ProjectProfile

EstimatingModel

WBS

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Design a Parametric ModelOur WBS:

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Design a Parametric ModelProject Estimate Summary

Size Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic FP/PM Calc

Estimated Size (FP) 142 284 568 284

Equivalent KSLOC 5.37 10.74 21.47 10.74

Effort

Person Months Effort 9.60 19.97 41.55 22.36

Hours of Effort 1708.62 3195.47 5485.01 3577.95

Schedule

Duration (Months) 7.39 9.27 11.63 9.60

Staff

Average Staff 1.30 2.15 3.57 2.33

Productivity

Calculated FP/PM 14.8 14.2 13.7 12.7

Calculated FP/Hr 0.0831 0.0889 0.1036 0.0794

Staff Month 178 160 132 160

Cost

Blended Rate of $52 88,848.32$ 166,164.36$ 285,220.37$ 186,053.54$

Phase Estimate

Select Lifecycle: 1

Select Model: 2

Percent Amount Percent Amount

Proposal 7% 223.68 7% 0.65

Analysis and Design 17% 543.23 20% 1.85

Construction 45% 1437.96 50% 4.63

Test Execution 19% 607.14 20% 1.85

Implementation 12% 383.46 3% 0.28

100% 3195.47 100% 9.27

Effort (Hours) Schedule (Months)

Waterfall

Most Likely

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Calibrate and Validate the Model

Our Process:Establish and readjust the relationships between:

Conduct variance analysis and adjust the estimating tool as necessaryTest and revise as new projects are conducted and as data is gathered

ProjectProfile

IndustryData

CorporateData

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain

WBSEstimating

Model



Incorporate into OrganizationOur Process:

Establish ScheduleBased on duration calculations as well as forward and backward paths, critical paths, and dependences, etc.

Establish CostBased on effort estimates (hours only) by generalize resource listing and the percentage of work they will be expected to performInclude blended rates (or specific rates if necessary) based on groupings of expertise/dollars

Establish Staffing ModelsBased on duration and loading model calculationsMake it real by looking at skill sets, dependencies, and availability

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Incorporate Into Organization

Our Process:Create instructional documentation that directs repeatable and reliable use when:

Completing the Project ProfileAdjusting theEstimating Model componentsTailoring the WBS

Roll-out and train when and where necessary

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



MaintainOur Process:

Add risk weighting factors in the future to account for this element within estimating modelContinue to test and revise as new projects are conducted and data is gatheredReport variance (estimates-to-actuals) on:

DurationEffortCostSizeStaffing

Identify

Design

Calibrate

Incorporate

Maintain



Many Questions / Few Answers

Documents

Project Parametric Estimating