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© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Things to Know…
All participants will be on mute.
Questions are welcome.
Use the question box to ask questions.
PM training is valid for 1 PDU
Must be in attendance
PDU certificate sent by the end of the week
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Moderator
Denise Rodriguez
Project Insight
Marketing
www.projectinsight.net
Diane C. Altwies, MBA, PMP
CEO, Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Training in project management,
PMP® and CAPM® certification, leadership,
business analysis, agile and six sigma
www.coreperformanceconcepts.com
Presenter
®
®
PMP® and CAPM® are registered trademarks of the Project Management Institute
© 2014 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Janice Y. Preston, MBA, CPA, PMP
COO, Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Training in project management,
PMP® and CAPM® certification, leadership,
business analysis, agile and six sigma
www.coreperformanceconcepts.com
Presenter
®
®
PMP® and CAPM® are registered trademarks of the Project Management Institute
© 2014 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Presenter
Kristine Munson, MBA, PMP, CIA
VP, IT Risk & Compliance Manager
State Street Insurance Co.
BA from Brigham Young University
MBA form Cal State University
Past President, PMI-Orange County Chapter
PMI Leadership Institute Master Class Alum
PMP® is a registered trademark of the Project Management Institute
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
What are your biggest issues with estimating on your projects?
� Team members underestimate the work effort by more
than 50%
� Teams don’t consider all the other persons necessary to
accurately complete tasks
� Management doesn’t want to acknowledge the actual
time it takes to complete tasks
� Management isn’t willing to modify the end date based on
bottom-up estimating
What Troubles You?
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Goals of the Fundamentals Series
Deepen your understanding of fundamental project
management concepts
Identify tools and techniques that can be implemented to
manage projects more effectively
Discover practical applications for your existing projects
Use project management software more effectively
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Objectives of this Webinar
Identify challenges and benefits of estimating time
Identify best practices for more accurate time estimates
Differentiate between duration and effort
Review best practices in a mini-case study
Learn how estimating works in Project Insight
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Regarding Human Nature
… the tendency is to underestimate the amount of time needed
to complete a given project, or overestimate the amount of
work that can be completed within a given time frame.
‘Procrastination and the Planning Fallacy: An
Examination of the Study Habits of University Students’
Journal of Social Behavior and Personality. 15(5), 135-150.
Pychyl, T.A., Morin, R.W., Salmon, B.R. (2000).
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Challenges in Managing Time
Projects don’t follow the planned schedule
exactly because…
� Time estimates are seldom 100%
realistic
� Activities may need to be added to
support project objectives
� Project team members may change or
work on many projects at once
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Estimates can be established with certainty.
� Facts only happen in the past.
High level estimates driven by management issues
are right.
� Do the estimates cover the full scope of work?
Good estimates can be prepared before
requirements are finalized.
� What?! What are you going to estimate?
Examples of Estimating Beliefs
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Project teams always pad estimates.
� Contingency should reflect the project’s risk.
Detailed estimates can be prepared without a WBS.
� The WBS is the essential foundation of estimates!
If you plan it right there won’t be any changes.
� A good project plan adapts to approved changes.
Optimistic estimates incent people to work harder.
� Hey! we’re already working as hard as we can, and …
� Used incorrectly, they are often counterproductive.
Examples of Estimating Beliefs (cont.)
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Develop a more accurate project schedule
Set more realistic stakeholder expectations
Establish plan for resource utilization
Make better decisions to optimize value
Build team confidence and credibility
Make fewer disruptive changes
Benefits of Good Estimating
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Distinguish Duration from Effort
Duration: The number of working time periods required to
complete a schedule activity or project. It is expressed in hours, days,
months, etc.. . Used to calculate the schedule Critical Path.
(Duration does not account for non-working periods, which must be
added to determine Calendar or Elapsed Duration)
Effort, or Work: The number of units of resources assigned to
complete a schedule activity or project, multiplied by the number of
working time periods. Used to calculate Cost.
It is expressed in ‘machine-hours’, ‘person-days’, etc..
Adapted from PMBOK® Guide
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Estimates of Duration and EffortComparative Illustration of Duration and Effort
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
10 person days of Effort / 5 days Task Duration / 5 days Elapsed Duration
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
10 person days of Effort / 10 days Task Duration / 12 days Elapsed Duration
Num
ber of Reso
urc
es
Num
ber of Reso
urc
es
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Regarding Risk & Uncertainty
“Facts only happen in the past.”
David T. Hulett, Ph.D.
Risk Management Guru
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Time Estimates as Ranges
Consider commuting to work:
� What is your typical daily commute time? 40 minutes
� What is your best time? 30 minutes
� Your worst time ever? 60 minutes
How much time do you allow if you MUST be there on
time?
Which estimate would you rely upon if you were going
to meet with the company CEO? Consequences for
being late? Why?
What will you do with spare time if you arrive early?
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Regarding Productivity
Putting two jockeys on a horse won't make it
run faster.
Anonymous
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Estimating Best Practices
Establish a definitive work breakdown structure
Identify all scope and tabulate discreet
deliverables (work packages, WPs)
Trace each WP to performance requirements
Identify and document excluded scope
Explicitly identify tasks for each WP
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Estimating Best Practices 2
Use a standardized procedure for estimating
Obtain stakeholders’ participation, engage those
performing the work.
Express estimates as ranges with probabilities
Document specific requirements and conditions
to achieve desired estimates
Seek and use available sources of data for
validation
Obtain an independent review of estimates
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Estimating Best Practices 3
Identify all dependencies, including externals such
as permits and procurements
Identify risks and uncertainties; provide adequate
responses
Add correctly-sized and placed buffers, especially at
merge points and at phase end
During execution, revise schedule baseline to adapt
to changed circumstances – (e.g., significant
changes to scope, sponsor expectations and / or
resources)
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Now, let’s apply it
Use the Time Estimating Best Practices
to the situation described in the following
project charter case study as you plan and
schedule the project
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Busy Foods, Inc. – Case Study
Changed Customer
Expectations
Busy Foods’ Response:
Project Charter
Project Deliverables
& Estimates
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Busy Foods, Inc.
Business Overview
• BUSY FOODS provides restaurant equipment to over 200 clients world-wide. Most of its clients are large restaurants. There has been a customary minimum order size in the industry.
A Competitor’s Challenge
• Recently, some valuable long-term clients have started to leave BUSY FOODS for a competitor that promises overnight delivery without a meeting minimum order size.
Goal
• BUSY FOODS would like to meet this challenge by improving its shipping processes and eliminating the minimum order size to help re-acquire lost clients.
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Success Requirements
Improve order processing capacity to enable smaller orders
Reduce the process cycle time to fewer than 8 hours
Busy Foods’ Response
Develop and launch a marketing campaign to educate clients on the new equipment shipping policy and its benefits
Project Deliverables
Train staff in the new business process to ensure that the 8 hour goal can be met
Marketing & Training Project
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Tasks and Duration EstimatesActivity Depends Upon Duration
A – Project kick-off - 1 day
B – Analyze current business process A 10 days?
C – Draft Marketing Plan E 5 days
D – Create Marketing Messages C 10 days
E – Determine needed improvements A 5-20 days
F – Review improvement opportunities with Mgmt. E 2 days
G – Obtain Mgmt. approval on improvements F 1-20 days
H – Engineer the improvements G ?
I – Design training materials H 8 days
J – Deliver training to staff I 3-6 days
K – Deliver marketing message – various media D, L 60 days?
L – Implement approved improvements H 25 days
M – Test customer acceptance of improvements L 20-30 days
N – Implement refinements M 5-30 days
O – Project Complete ? 0 days
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Questions for You
What estimating challenges do you expect
from this project?
What specific information is missing?
Sequence? Estimates? Dependencies?
Uncertainties?
As the project manager, what would you
require to deliver the project on time?
(Assumptions, assurances, etc.)
What duration would you be willing to
commit to?
Please submit your responses
through the comment box
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Another Question for You
How should existing work
assignments of your project
team be managed to ensure on-
time completion of this project?
Submit your ideas through the
question box
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Finding Estimating Information
Rely on experience and judgment
Refer to prior projects
Interview subject matter experts and
consultants
Use templates and checklists
Use commercial estimating databases
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Question for You
What sources of
information do you use to
develop time estimates?
Please submit your ideas through
the comment box
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Estimating & Scheduling References
Industry-specific estimating best practices
Estimating and Scheduling Practice Standards;
PMI, (Project Management Institute)
Requirements for good schedules; DCMA,
(Defense Contract Management Agency)
Research articles, external consultants, and
tailored training.
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Your Thoughts?
What else might be done
to improve estimating
accuracy?
Please submit your thoughts
through the comment box
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Using Project Insight
Duration time estimates are used to
develop the project schedule.
Effort estimates are used to develop
the project budget
There are a number of display options
that allow you to customize reports for
the information you need
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Review of Webinar Objectives
Identify challenges and benefits of estimating time
Identify best practices for more accurate time estimates
Differentiate between duration and effort
Review best practices in a mini-case study
Learn how estimating works in Project Insight
Questions???
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
What Else?
The First 5 Attendees to Email
Will Receive FREE 45-Day Access To Our
Online PMP® Exam Testing Center
Test Your Knowledge ... Whether You Have Your PMP® or NOT!More Than 1,400 Test Questions ...
Based on the New PMBOK® Guide 5th Edition
Run Simulated 200-Question Practice Exams
Run 25-Question Knowledge Area Exams
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Special Promotion
Continue improving your project management
skills. Core Performance Concepts offers a
10% discount on their online courses for
anyone attending the webinar.
Check them out today!
http://clicky.me/cpc-pm
2015 Fundamentals Webinar Series
The 2nd Wednesday of Every Month - 8:00 am
Pacific Time
Topics
� Feb 11th – Conducting Meetings with Virtual Teams
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Register Ahead of Time
Go to www.projectinsight.net
2 ways to register:
� Training & Support
� Project Insight Calendar
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Earn PDUs
You will automatically receive your PDUs certificate via email after the webinar
For further questions: [email protected]
Earn 1 PDU for each webinar session attended
To register your PDUs go to www.pmi.org and login as a member of PMI to record continuing
education
Select Category B – Continuing Education
� Input start and end dates
� Hours completed: 1
� Provider name: Core Performance Concepts Inc.
� Phone number: 949-859-7004
� URL: www.coreperformanceconcepts.com
� Email address: [email protected]
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
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© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
Learn more…
Schedule a customized demo
today!
� +1 (949) 476-6499 x3
Request info
� www.projectinsight.net
Core Performance Concepts Project Insight
Contact us
� +1 (800) 655-0733
Request info:
www.coreperformanceconcepts.com
© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.
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to fill out the request information form to have a
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