Project Level Traffic Forecast Report · Development Activity:Based upon information provided by Darius Sturdivant (NCDOT Division . 6) there are currently no specific plans for development

Contact: Jeff Hochanadel, PE, PTOE

5410 Trinity Road, Suite 102 • Raleigh, NC 27607 (919) 866-4951 phone • (919) 859-5663 fax

www.timmons.com

Project Level Traffic Forecast Report STIP PROJECT U-6001

NC-59 (South Main Street) Widening

Cumberland County

WBS # 46960.1.1

February 2018 Prepared By: Timmons Group

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February 5th, 2018

MEMORANDUM TO: Scott Pridgen – Division 6 Project Manager Sean Matuszewski – Division 6 Design Engineer CC: Jim Dunlop, PE – Congestion Management Eastern Regional Engineer Brenda Moore, PE, CPM – Assistant State Roadway Design Engineer Clark Morrison, PhD, PE – State Pavement Design Engineer Darius Sturdivant – Division 6 Planning Engineer Joel Strickland – FAMPO Executive Director Deloma Graham – FAMPO Senior Planner Behshad Norowzi, EI – Coastal Group Supervisor Keith Dixon – State Traffic Forecast Engineer Traffic Forecasting GIS Support FROM: Timmons Group Project Team SUBJECT: Traffic Forecast for STIP Project U-6001 Cumberland County NC-59 (South Main Street) Please find attached the 2018 / 2040 Traffic Forecast for the above-mentioned project. Project STIP U-6001 is defined as NC-59 (South Main Street): SR 1243 (Shipman Road) to SR 1118 (Parkton Road), widening to three or four lanes. Subject project STIP U-6001 is scheduled for construction in 2024 in the STIP. This is the first forecast for this project. This project lies within the Fayetteville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (FAMPO) area. The B-4491 (April 2013) forecast was reviewed during the development of this forecast. The following individual stakeholders were consulted during the development of this forecast:

• Hemal Shah – NCDOT TPB • Elmo Vance, Jr. – NCDOT PDEA • Darius Sturdivant – NCDOT Division 6 • Joel Strickland – FAMPO • Deloma Graham – FAMPO • Jennifer Oppenlander – Cumberland County • Chancer McLaughlin – Town of Hope Mills • Rober Van Geons – FCEDC • Troy Baker – NCDOT Division 6, District 2 Office

The following scenarios are provided:

• 2018 Base Year No-Build (BYNB) • 2018 Base Year Build (BYB) – Scenarios 1 & 2 • 2040 Future Year No-Build (FYNB) • 2040 Future Year Build (FYB) – Scenarios 1 & 2

Certain assumptions were made in the development of the forecast: Fiscal Constraint: The project is located within the boundaries of the Fayetteville Area MPO (FAMPO). There are several fiscally constrained projects found in the FAMPO 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (dated April 16, 2014) and NCDOT STIP that are assumed to be complete and open to traffic by 2040. Each project will impact traffic and travel patterns in

the project study area. Listed are projects that are (a) up / downstream of the NC-59 corridor, (b) connected to the NC-59 corridor, or (c) parallel to the NC-59 corridor and will affect this facility:

• U-3849 – Elk Road (SR 1363) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2012) • U-2809 – Legion Road (SR 1132) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2040) • (No STIP #) – Parkton Road (SR 1118) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2040) • U-4709 – Rockfish Road (SR 1112) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2026) • U-4710 – Golfview Road (SR 1115) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • (No STIP #) – Chicken Foot Road (Local) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • (No STIP #) – Golfview Road (Local) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • (No STIP #) – NC-59 (Local) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • U-4706 – Cameron Road (SR 1131) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2026)

Development Activity: Based upon information provided by Darius Sturdivant (NCDOT Division 6) there are currently no specific plans for development what would significantly affect traffic within the project area. Travel Demand Model: The FAMPO Fayetteville Travel Demand Model (FTDM), Version 1 (adopted in 2012), was utilized as a tool in the development of this traffic forecast. The model has a base year of 2010 and future year of 2040. The current model maintains no interim years. The model runs in TransCAD 5 Build 2110. All model runs used for this forecast were created by Clearbox Forecast Group, PLLC. Methodology: The 2018 BYNB traffic forecast volumes and design factors were developed based upon current traffic counts and projections from historic AADT data. The 2040 FYNB traffic forecast volumes were calculated using a combination of linear growth rates from historic AADT data, model data, input from project Stakeholders, and growth rates from the adjacent B-4491 Traffic Forecast. Development of the 2018 BYB (Alternatives 1 and 2) and 2040 FYB (Alternatives 1 and 2) traffic forecast volumes were determined by applying the percent changes found in the FTDM to the 2018 BYNB and 2040 FYNB traffic forecast volumes. For each condition, Engineering judgment adjustments were applied (as needed) to finalize the forecast volumes and develop a balanced forecast. Interpolation: To determine any intermediate years, straight-line interpolation may be used. AADT volumes may be extrapolated for up to two years immediately following 2040. If it is determined that any of these assumptions have become inconsistent with the project and surrounding area activity, please request updated projections at this location. If you have any questions or I can be of further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact Jeff Hochanadel at 919-866-4511, or e-mail at [email protected]. Sincerely,

Jeffrey P. Hochanadel, PE, PTOE Senior Project Manager, Transportation (Attachments)

February 2018 STIP Project No U-6001 – Project Level Traffic Forecast

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................ I

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................. III

LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................................... III

APPENDICES ................................................................................................................................. III

1 PROJECT BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................... 1-1

1.1 PROJECT REQUEST INFORMATION ...................................................................................1-1

1.2 FORECAST HISTORY ........................................................................................................1-1

1.3 AREA INFORMATION .......................................................................................................1-1

1.4 ROUTE INFORMATION .....................................................................................................1-2

2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA .................................................................................. 2-1

2.1 RELATED FORECASTS ......................................................................................................2-1

2.2 HISTORIC AADT ..............................................................................................................2-1

2.3 FIELD DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................2-3

2.4 FIELD INVESTIGATION ....................................................................................................2-5

2.5 OTHER SOURCES ............................................................................................................2-5

3 2018 BASE YEAR NO-BUILD (BYNB) FORECAST ...................................................................... 3-1

3.1 ASSUMPTIONS ..............................................................................................................3-1

3.2 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................3-1

3.3 DESIGN FACTORS .........................................................................................................3-4

3.3.1 Design Hour Factors .........................................................................................................3-6

3.3.2 Peak Hour Directional Splits ..............................................................................................3-6

3.3.3 Truck Percentages ...........................................................................................................3-6

4 GENERAL MODEL DATA ............................................................................................................ 4-1

4.1 MODEL INFORMATION ..................................................................................................4-1

5 BASE YEAR BUILD (BYB) FORECAST........................................................................................ 5-1

5.1 ASSUMPTIONS ..............................................................................................................5-1

5.2 ALTERNATIVES .............................................................................................................5-1

5.3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................5-1


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5.4 DESIGN FACTORS .........................................................................................................5-4

6 FUTURE YEAR NO-BUILD (FYNB) FORECAST ........................................................................... 6-1

6.1 ASSUMPTIONS ..............................................................................................................6-1

6.2 FISCAL CONSTRAINT ....................................................................................................6-1

6.3 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY .............................................................................................6-1

6.4 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................6-1

6.5 DESIGN FACTORS .........................................................................................................6-3

7 FUTURE YEAR BUILD (FYB) FORECAST ................................................................................... 7-1

7.1 ASSUMPTIONS ..............................................................................................................7-1

7.2 ALTERNATIVES .............................................................................................................7-1

7.3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................7-1

7.4 DESIGN FACTORS .........................................................................................................7-1


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LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1-1: STUDY AREA ROADWAY CLASSIFICATIONS ................................................................................................. 1-2

TABLE 2-1: RELATED AREA TRAFFIC FORECASTS ......................................................................................................... 2-1

TABLE 2-2: HISTORIC TRAFFIC DATA ............................................................................................................................. 2-2

TABLE 2-3: FIELD DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................................. 2-4

TABLE 2-4: AGENCY CONTACT DATA ............................................................................................................................. 2-6

TABLE 3-1: 2018 BYNB TRAFFIC FORECAST ................................................................................................................ 3-2

TABLE 3-2: HOUR-TO-DAY FACTORS ............................................................................................................................. 3-3

TABLE 3-3: DESIGN FACTORS ......................................................................................................................................... 3-5

TABLE 4-1: MODEL ESTIMATE COMPARISON.................................................................................................................. 4-1

TABLE 5-1: BUILD TRAFFIC FORECASTS – ALTERNATIVE 1 ........................................................................................... 5-2

TABLE 5-2: BUILD TRAFFIC FORECASTS – ALTERNATIVE 2 ........................................................................................... 5-3

TABLE 6-1: RECOMMENDED GROWTH RATES ................................................................................................................ 6-2

LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: PROJECT STUDY AREA

FIGURE 2: TURNING MOVEMENT / CLASSIFICATION TRAFFIC COUNT LOCATIONS

FIGURE 3: 2018 BASE YEAR NO-BUILD

FIGURE 4: 2018 BASE YEAR BUILD – ALTERNATIVE 1

FIGURE 5: 2018 BASE YEAR BUILD – ALTERNATIVE 2

FIGURE 6: 2040 FUTURE YEAR NO-BUILD

FIGURE 7: 2040 FUTURE YEAR BUILD – ALTERNATIVE 1

FIGURE 8: 2040 FUTURE YEAR BUILD – ALTERNATIVE 2

APPENDICES Appendix A – Traffic Count Data

Appendix B – Stakeholder Questionnaires

Appendix C – TFU Spreadsheets


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1 PROJECT BACKGROUND

1.1 PROJECT REQUEST INFORMATION

The U-6001 traffic forecast was requested by NCDOT Division 6. This forecast concerns the widening of NC-59 (South Main Street) to a three or four lane road from SR 1243 (Shipman Road) to SR 1118 (Parkton Road). The project is approximately 1.2 miles in length and is located in Hope Mills, NC (Cumberland County) – see Figure 1. Project level traffic forecasts were requested for the following conditions:

• 2018 Base Year No Build (BYNB) • 2018 Base Year Build (BYB)

o Alternative 1 (Widening to three-lane cross-section) o Alternative 2 (Widening to four-lane divided cross-section)

• 2040 Future Year No Build (FYNB) • 2040 Future Year Build (FYB)

o Alternative 1 (Widening to three-lane cross-section) o Alternative 2 (Widening to four-lane divided cross-section)

NC-59 (South Main Street) provides a north-south connection from Raeford Road (to the north) to I-95 (to the south). In the project study area, NC-59 (South Main Street) includes a two-lane undivided cross-section and primarily services residential developments and commuter traffic to/from Hope Mills. This project proposes to widen the facility to a three or four-lane cross-section in the future.

1.2 FORECAST HISTORY

An adjacent forecast, B-4491, was completed for the widening of Bridge #22 along NC-59. This forecast, completed April 3, 2013 included two overlapping project study area intersections: NC-59 / Jefferson Street & Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) and NC-59 / Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352). Information (volumes and growth rates) from this forecast will be used to help complete the subject forecast (U-6001).

1.3 AREA INFORMATION

Per the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) and the US Census Bureau, the 2010 population for Cumberland County was approximately 320,000. The county’s population is projected to grow approximately 4% between 2010 and 2020 (to approximately 330,000), but level off, with little to no increase expected through 2037. Stakeholder input contradicted these projections and general consensus was that the population would experience moderate growth in the near term leading to continued growth through the project’s 2040 forecast year.

The Town of Hope Mills experienced a more significant population growth (8.9%) from 2010 to 2016 (15,176 to 16,253, respectively). A summary of area employment data was included in the U-5857, U-5707, U-5798 Project Level Traffic Forecast created by RS&H in September 2017:

Annual employment data was obtained from the North Carolina Department of Commerce (NCDOC) for Cumberland County. This data indicates that between 2010 and 2015, employment grew at an annual rate of 0.77% in Cumberland County. As a comparison, for the same time period, the statewide annual employment growth rate was 1.10%.


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NCDOC has projected an annual employment growth rate between 2015 and 2030 of approximately 0.97% for Cumberland County. Projected employment growth for the Fayetteville-Lumberton Region, which includes Cumberland County, for the time period between 2014 and 2024 is estimated at 0.92% annually. Statewide, the annual employment growth is projected to be 1.26% for the same time period.

1.4 ROUTE INFORMATION

The project study area is located in southwestern Cumberland County in Hope Mills, NC. The study area includes the analysis of five intersections:

• NC-59 (South Main Street) / Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Drive • NC-59 (South Main Street) / Parkton Road (SR 1118) • NC-59 (South Main Street) / Porter Road (SR 1125) • NC-59 (South Main Street) / Jefferson Street / Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) • NC-59 (South Main Street) / Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352)

Table 1-1 below provides the study area corridors, the functional classification, and current cross-section description.

Table 1-1: Study Area Roadway Classifications

No. Roadway Name Cross-Section Classification

1 NC-59 (S Main Street) north of Parkton Road (SR 1118) Three-Lane Undivided Other Principal Arterial

2 NC-59 (S Main Street) south of Parkton Road (SR 1118) Two-Lane Undivided Other Principal Arterial

3 Cameron Road (SR 1131) Two-Lane Undivided Minor Arterial

4 Edwin Deaver Road Two-Lane Undivided Local 5 Parkton Road (SR 1118) Two-Lane Undivided Minor Arterial 6 Porter Road (SR 1125) Two-Lane Undivided Local

7 Jefferson Street / Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) Two-Lane Undivided Local

8 Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) Two-Lane Undivided Local


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2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA

2.1 RELATED FORECASTS

There are several completed area forecasts in the vicinity of U-6001. As previously stated, an adjacent forecast, B-4491, was completed for the widening of Bridge #22 along NC-59. This forecast, completed April 3, 2013 included two overlapping project study area intersections: NC-59 / Jefferson Street & Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) and NC-59 / Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352). Information (volumes and growth rates) from this forecast will be used to help complete the subject forecast (U-6001). A comparison of the data provided in this study to the U-6001 forecast data is provided later in this document. Table 2-1 provides a description and information about B-4491.

Table 2-1: Related Area Traffic Forecasts

Forecast Date Project Name Forecast Preparer Forecast Base Year

Forecast Future Year

April 2013 B-4491 - Replace Bridge #22 on NC-59 over I-95 Business / US 301 in Cumberland County

Elisabeth Bray 2013 2035

2.2 HISTORIC AADT

Historic AADT volumes (2006 – 2016) for seven study area locations were obtained from the NCDOT and used to help complete the traffic forecast. Where applicable, outlier data points were excluded from calculations. Table 2-2 shows the historic data and provides a comparison to the BYNB AADTs calculated from collected turning movement count (TMC) and volume classification count (VCC) data.


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Table 2-2: Historic Traffic Data

KEY LOCATIONS Historic AADT Volumes

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 16,000 16,000 16,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 20,000 20,000 16,000 21,000 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 15,000 16,000 16,000 19,000 20,000 16,000 20,000 21,000 16,000 18,000

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Porter Road (SR 1125) 12,000 12,000 15,000 15,000 16,000 13,000 16,000 17,000 13,000 14,000 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street (SR 1123) NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 11,000 11,000 12,000 14,000 15,000 12,000 16,000 17,000 12,000 14,000 Edwin Deaver Road West of NC-59 (S Main Street) Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 7,200 7,100 6,900 12,000 7,900 7,100 7,200 6,600 5,800 6,200

Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 6,000 6,800 7,600 7,600 7,400 6,900 7,500 7,100 6,800 7,600 Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,500 1,300 1,500 1,200 2,400 1,400 1,300 Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,400 1,100 1,100 1,300 Jefferson Street (SR 1123) East of NC-59 (S Main Street)

Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) East of NC-59 (S Main Street)


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2.3 FIELD DATA COLLECTION

On October 10th and 11th, 2017, Timmons Group collected 13-hour TMCs at five (5) study area intersections and 48-hour VCCs at five (5) locations throughout the study area (see Figure 2). Table 2-3 below provides a listing of the location of each count, count type, and date of data collection. The table also provides the county, ATR group, and seasonal adjustment factor used for each count location. Appendix A includes the collected traffic count data information.


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Table 2-3: Field Data Collection

No. Location Type Count Date(s) County ATR Group Seasonal Adjustment Factor

1 NC-59 (S Main Street) at Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 13-hr TMC 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

2 NC-59 (S Main Street) at Parkton Road (SR 1118) 13-hr TMC 10/10/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

3 NC-59 (S Main Street) at Porter Road (SR 1125) 13-hr TMC 10/10/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

4 NC-59 (S Main Street) at Jefferson Street / Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) 13-hr TMC 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

5 NC-59 (S Main Street) at Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 13-hr TMC 10/10/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

A NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 48-hr VCC 10/10/2017 - 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

B Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 48-hr VCC 10/10/2017 - 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

C Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 48-hr VCC 10/10/2017 - 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

D Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 48-hr VCC 10/10/2017 - 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

E NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 48-hr VCC 10/10/2017 - 10/11/2017 Cumberland 4 0.91

VCC - Volume Classification Count TMC - Turning Movement Count


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2.4 FIELD INVESTIGATION

On October 10th, 2017 and November 17th, 2017, Timmons Group performed field investigations of the project study area. NC-59 (S Main Street) is currently used by commuters from Hope Mills wishing to access US-301 / I-95 Business or I-95. The predominant land use along the study area portion of the subject corridor is single family residential. Neighborhood streets and individual residents’ driveways directly connect to the NC-59 (S Main Street) corridor. Historic Downtown Hope Mills is located to the north of the project study area. Commercial land uses exist in each of the four NC-59 (S Main Street) / Cameron Road / Edwin Deaver Drive intersection quadrants immediately north of the study area. Within the study area, a small grocery store and dentist’s office are located just south of Porter Road at Orchard Street. Various small commercial uses are also located just north of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street. A modular home sales, large grading contractor, and storage development are located south of Betsy Ross Drive. Ramps for US-301 / I-95 Business and I-95 are located immediately south of the study area corridor. A Walmart Distribution Center is located south of I-95.

On-going construction was noted during both field visit; however, construction was limited to resurfacing the corridor north of Rockfish Creek and added no additional capacity. During both site visits, traffic did not seem affected by the corridor.

Several land parcels (greater than 1 acres) were for sale along the corridor and one large parcel of land (at Parkton Road) is currently undeveloped.

Along with I-95, major truck generators included the existing grading company and Walmart Distribution Center located. Each are located south of the project study area.

2.5 OTHER SOURCES

Project Stakeholders from the NCDOT Transportation Planning Branch (TPB), PDEA, Division 6, and the Fayetteville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (FAMPO) along with Cumberland County and the Town of Hope Mills were contacted as part of the Stakeholder coordination process. Timmons Group created a stakeholder questionnaire (see Appendix B) and provided it to each individual staff member. Table 2-4 below provides a listing of the contacted staff member, along with their respective agency and contact information, date of initial contact, and summarized information provided to Timmons Group.

The general consensus from contacted Stakeholders is that a moderate area traffic growth will continue for the forecast time frame.


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Table 2-4: Agency Contact Data

Agency Name Initial Date of Contact Contact Info. Information

NCDOT TPB Hemal Shah Email 10/31/17 919-707-0992 [email protected]

Provided stakeholder Input questionnaire - 11/09/17

NCDOT PDEA Elmo Vance Jr. Email 10/31/17 919-707-6048 [email protected]

NCDOT Division 6 Darius D, Sturdivant Email 10/31/17 910-364-0600

[email protected] Provided stakeholder Input questionnaire - 11/15/17

FAMPO Joel Strickland Email 10/31/17 910-678-7622 [email protected]

Provided stakeholder Input questionnaire - 11/14/17

FAMPO Deloma Graham Email 10/31/17 Email 11/20/17

910-678-7628 [email protected]

Cumberland County Jennifer Oppenlander

Email 10/31/17 Email 11/20/17


Town of Hope Mills Chancer McLaughlin

Email 10/31/17 Email 11/20/17


FCEDC (Fayetteville Cumberland County Economic Development Corporation)

Robert Van Geons

Email 11/14/17 Email 11/20/17


NCDOT Division 6, District 2 Office Troy Baker Email 11/15/17

Email 11/20/17 910-364-0601 [email protected]

As cited above, additional study area information was acquired from the U-5857, U-5707, U-5798 Project Level Traffic Forecast prepared by RS&H in September 2017. The projects are located in Hoke / Cumberland Counties approximately 6 miles from the U-6001 study area and share similar county employment data.

Other data sources include:

• NCDOT Functional Classification of Roadways Map • B-4491 Traffic Forecast


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3 2018 BASE YEAR NO-BUILD (BYNB) FORECAST

3.1 ASSUMPTIONS

The following assumptions were made to determine 2018 BYNB estimates: • No changes will be made to the existing roadway geometry due to any of the area fiscally

constrained projects. • No new development projects will be constructed in the project study area that will affect

existing traffic volumes or area travel patterns. 3.2 METHODOLOGY

2018 BYNB volumes were developed using collected traffic data (13-hour TMCs and 48-hour VCCs described above) and historic AADTs. Table 3-1 below provides the historic AADTs for key locations as well as AADTs calculated from the 13-hour TMCs and 48-hour VCCs. 2018 BYNB volumes, design hour factors, peak hour directional splits, and truck percentages are included in Figure 3.


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Table 3-1: 2018 BYNB Traffic Forecast

KEY LOCATIONS Historic AADT Volumes Historic AADT

Projected to 2018 (AADT)

2017 Project Specific Count Data 2018 BY NB Traffic Forecast

(AADT) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TMC Counts (AADT)

Mainline Counts (AADT)

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 20,000 16,000 20,000 20,000 16,000 21,000 21,200 18,300 19,100 19,600 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 20,000 16,000 20,000 21,000 16,000 18,000 20,800 16,600 18,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Porter Road (SR 1125) 16,000 13,000 16,000 17,000 13,000 14,000 17,100 14,300 15,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street (SR 1123) 13,000 14,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 13,700 14,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 15,000 12,000 16,000 17,000 12,000 14,000 17,000 13,800 13,500 14,800 Edwin Deaver Road West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,800 1,800 Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 7,900 7,100 7,200 6,600 5,800 6,200 7,400 9,500 9,300 8,800 Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 7,400 6,900 7,500 7,100 6,800 7,600 8,200 6,700 6,900 7,400 Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,500 1,200 2,400 1,400 1,300 1,200 700 600 1,000 Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,300 1,200 1,400 1,100 1,100 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,200 Jefferson Street (SR 1123) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 200 200 Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 300 400


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13-hour TMCs were initially converted to ADTs using the hourly percentage factors provided in Table 3-2 below. The subject percentages were provided by the NCDOT and are based on statewide averages. Values listed under “NC Highways” were applied to TMCs along NC-59 (S Main Street). For “NC Highways,” 13-hour TMCs represent 78.3% of the overall daily traffic volumes. Values listed under “Primary Roads” were applied to TMCs along Cameron Road, Parkton Road, and Porter Road. For “Primary Roads,” 13-hour TMCs represent 74.9% of the overall daily traffic volumes. Values listed under “Secondary Roads” were applied to all remaining study area corridors. For “Secondary Roads,” 13-hour TMCs represent 79.7% of the overall daily traffic volumes.

Table 3-2: Hour-to-Day Factors

Hour US Highways NC Highways*

Primary Roads**

Secondary Roads***

12:00 a.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 1:00 a.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 2:00 a.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70%

3:00 a.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 4:00 a.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 5:00 a.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 6:00 a.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 7:00 a.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 8:00 a.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90%

9:00 a.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 10:00 a.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 11:00 a.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 12:00 p.m. 6.10% 5.80% 5.70% 7.50% 1:00 p.m. 5.70% 6.10% 4.30% 5.90% 2:00 p.m. 6.30% 7.30% 5.50% 5.70%

3:00 p.m. 7.40% 6.00% 7.20% 7.50% 4:00 p.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 5:00 p.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 6:00 p.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 7:00 p.m. 5.90% 5.90% 5.80% 5.90% 8:00 p.m. 4.30% 4.00% 5.90% 4.30%

9:00 p.m. 3.50% 3.70% 4.30% 4.10% 10:00 p.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70%

11:00 p.m. 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.70%

Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Group * Used for NC-59 (S Main Street) ** Used for Cameron Rd, Parkton Rd, Porter Rd

Calculated ADTs (based on 13-hour TMCs) were then multiplied by a seasonal adjustment factor (0.91) to determine an AADT value. The seasonal adjust factor was determined by the month of data collection (October), ATR Group (4), and data collection day of the week (Tuesday / Wednesday). Seasonal adjustment factors were provided by the NCDOT and are based on statewide averages.


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48-hour VCCs were converted to AADT values via a two-step process: (1) 48-hour counts were averaged to determine an ADT and (2) the ADT was multiplied by a seasonal adjustment factor. Historical AADT volumes provided by the NCDOT were projected to 2018 AADTs using a linear growth methodology calculated by the Traffic Forecast Utility (TFU) worksheets. Generally, projections from the historical AADTs aligned with AADTs calculated using existing traffic counts. Appendix A includes the collected traffic count data information. TFU worksheets were developed to determine BYNB traffic forecast volumes at each study area intersection. TFU spreadsheets are found in Appendix C. BYNB traffic forecast volumes were balanced along the corridor using Engineering judgement. 3.3 DESIGN FACTORS

Design hour factors (K), peak hour directional splits (D), and truck percentages (d,t) were based on existing traffic count data and values found in the adjacent B-4491 traffic forecast. Table 3-3 provides a summary of each selected factor.


3-5

Table 3-3: Design Factors

Location

D – Directional Distribution Percentage K – Peak Hour Factor Percentage Truck Percentage (Dual / TTST) *

TIP Project B-4491

BY Count Data

Selected BYNB Value

TIP Project B-4491

BY Count Data

Selected BYNB Value

TIP Project B-4491

BY Count Data Selected

BYNB Value ** TMC Mainline TMC Mainline

TMC Mainline

Duals TTSTs Duals TTSTs Duals TTSTs Duals TTSTs NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 52% NB 52% NB 55% NB 8% 8% 8% 2% 1% 7% 1% 7% 2%

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 54% SB 55% NB 8% 8% 1% 1% 7% 2% NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Porter Road (SR 1125) 53% NB 55% NB 8% 8% 3% 1% 7% 2% NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street (SR 1123) 55% NB 53% NB 55% NB 8% 8% 8% 7% 2% 3% 1% 7% 2% NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 55% NB 52% NB 55% NB 8% 8% 8% 7% 2% 3% 1% 7% 2% NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 55% NB 52% NB 54% NB 55% NB 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 2% 3% 1% 11% 1% 7% 2% Edwin Deaver Road West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 63% WB 55% WB 9% 8% 2% 0% 2% 1%

Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 63% WB 63% WB 55% WB 8% 10% 9% 2% 0% 8% 1% 5% 1% Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 60% WB 64% WB 60% WB 8% 8% 8% 2% 0% 5% 0% 5% 1% Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 61% WB 60% WB 60% WB 8% 10% 10% 2% 0% 9% 1% 5% 1% Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 60% WB 64% WB 60% WB 9% 10% 9% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% Jefferson Street (SR 1123) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 55% WB 57% WB 55% WB 17% 5% 17% 2% 1% 6% 0% 2% 1%

Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 55% EB 67% EB 55% EB 12% 6% 12% 4% 1% 4% 0% 4% 1%

* Refer to Traffic Survey Groups (TSG) class data layer: https://connect.ncdot.gov/resources/State-Mapping/Pages/Traffic-Survey-GIS-Data.aspx ** Vehicle classification data present in B-4491 was used for the subject forecast to maintain consistency between forecasts.

https://connect.ncdot.gov/resources/State-Mapping/Pages/Traffic-Survey-GIS-Data.aspx


3-6

3.3.1 Design Hour Factors The design hour factor (K) is the percentage of the daily volume occurring during the peak hour. Expressed as a percentage, the K factor approximates the 30th highest peak hour of a given year. The K factors were calculated by dividing the PM peak hour directional volume of an intersection leg by the 24-hour volume of that same leg. As shown in Table 3-3 above, K values ranged from 6% - 17%. Values for more heavily traveled facilities (NC-59 and Parkton Road) were 8% where values for less traveled facilities exceeded (Jefferson Street and Betsy Ross Drive) exceeded 10%.

3.3.2 Peak Hour Directional Splits The peak hour directional split (D) of a facility is the percentage of peak hour traffic traveling in the peak direction. This value was calculated by dividing the PM peak hour directional volume of an intersection leg by the total peak-hour volume of that same leg. This value was then rounded to the closest 5%. The direction with the highest PM peak hour traffic was labeled. As shown in Table 3-3 above, D values ranged from 55% - 65%.

3.3.3 Truck Percentages Signal unit (classified as “Duals”) and multi-unit truck (classified as TTSTs) percentages (d,t) were calculated using existing TMCs and VCCs. As shown in Table 3-3, VCCs had larger percentages of trucks than TMCs. Where discrepancies occurred, truck percentages found in the B-4491 forecast were used, followed by an average of the TMCs and VCCs. For each location, a minimum of 2% Duals and 1% TTSTs was used.


4-1

4 GENERAL MODEL DATA

4.1 MODEL INFORMATION

The FAMPO Fayetteville Travel Demand Model (FTDM), Version 1 (adopted in 2012), was utilized as a tool in the development of this traffic forecast. The model has a base year of 2010 and future year of 2040. The current model maintains no interim years. The model runs in TransCAD 5 Build 2110. All model runs used for this forecast were created by Clearbox Forecast Group, PLLC.

Six (6) model runs were created for this traffic forecast. 2040 model runs included all funded FAMPO and STIP projects to be completed in the project study area. Model runs included the following: 2010 Base Year No Build 2010 Base Year Build (Alternative 1 and 2) 2040 Future Year No Build 2040 Future Year Build (Alternative 1 and 2) Table 4-1 below provides a base year model comparison between 2010 model data and 2010 AADTs. As shown in the table, for each common location, the percent difference between the FTDM Estimates and 2010 AADTs ranged from -12% to 96%. With model ranges greater than 15%, the FTDM does not accurately represent the project study area. Model growth percentages were considered for FY projections, but no adjustments were made to 2018 BY AADT projections due to the model.

Table 4-1: Model Estimate Comparison

Location 2010 FTDM Model Estimates

2010 Historic AADT

% Change in 2010 AADT vs Model Estimates

NC-59 (S Main Street) north of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 15379 20000 -23%

NC-59 (S Main Street) south of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 11501 16000 -28%

Cameron Road (SR 1131) 5021 7200 -30%

Edwin Deaver Road 113 - -

Parkton Road (SR 1118) 6563 7500 -12%

Porter Road (SR 1125) 2353 1200 96%

Jefferson Street (SR 1123) - - -

Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) 2698 1400 93%

Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) - - -


5-1

5 BASE YEAR BUILD (BYB) FORECAST

5.1 ASSUMPTIONS

The FTDM was used to help develop the 2018 BYB traffic forecast. The 2010 BYNB FTDM was revised to include the following changes to the existing roadway network:

• Widen NC-59 (S Main Street) to Three Lanes for Alternative 1 • Widen NC-59 (S Main Street) to Four Lanes for Alternative 2

5.2 ALTERNATIVES

As previously mentioned, two Alternatives were analyzed for the BYNB forecast: (1) widening NC-59 to a three-lane cross-section and (2) widening NC-59 to a four-lane cross-section. Figure 4 shows the 2018 BYB traffic forecast for Alternative 1 and Figure 5 shows the 2018 BYB traffic forecast for Alternative 2.

5.3 METHODOLOGY

To determine the 2018 BYB forecast volumes, the 2018 BYNB volumes were multiplied by the percent change between the FTDM 2010 Base Year No Build and Build volumes. As shown in Table 5-1, percentages ranged from -0.94% to 6.61% for Alternative 1. As shown in Table 5-2, percentages ranged from -0.72% to 22.6% for Alternative 2. For NC-59 south of Betsy Ross Drive (where model data did not exist), an average percent change of the adjacent segments was assumed (where an increase number of commuters would potentially adjust travel patterns to utilize the additional capacity). A change of 0.0% was used for collector streets. Where widening NC-59 will provide additional capacity for commuter volumes, it will not affect volumes within area neighborhoods. Area patrons will continue to travel on NC-59 regardless of the proposed roadway cross-section.


5-2

Table 5-1: Build Traffic Forecasts – Alternative 1

KEY LOCATIONS 2018 BYNB Traffic Forecast

2010 Base Year Model ADTs 2018 BYB Traffic

Forecast Recommended Annual Growth Rate 2018-2040

2040 FYNB Traffic Forecast

2040 Future Year Model ADTs 2040 FYB Traffic

Forecast NB B % Change NB B % Change

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 19,600 12121 12276 1.26% 19,900 1.50% 26,400 25082 25469 1.52% 26,900 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 18,800 15379 15594 1.38% 19,100 1.50% 25,300 28032 28671 2.23% 25,900 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Porter Road (SR 1125) 15,800 11501 12037 4.45% 16,700 1.50% 21,300 16633 17832 6.72% 22,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street (SR 1123) 14,800 11762 12306 4.42% 15,700 1.50% 20,100 15819 17005 6.97% 21,600 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 14,800 12457 12990 4.10% 15,700 1.50% 20,000 15485 16663 7.07% 21,600 NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 14,800 - - 4.33% 15,700 1.50% 20,000 - - 6.92% 21,600 Edwin Deaver Road West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,800 113 121 6.61% 1,800 0.50% 2,000 - - 6.61% 2,300 Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 8,800 5021 5043 0.44% 8,800 1.00% 10,900 12311 12244 -0.55% 10,900 Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 7,400 6563 6502 -0.94% 7,400 1.00% 9,000 13620 13197 -3.21% 8,900 Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,000 2353 2352 -0.04% 1,000 0.50% 1,200 2743 2743 0.00% 1,200 Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,200 2698 2697 -0.04% 1,200 1.30% 1,600 3141 3141 0.00% 1,700 Jefferson Street (SR 1123) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 200 - - 0.00% 200 2.30% 300 - 0.00% 300 Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 400 - - 0.00% 400 1.30% 600 - 0.00% 600


5-3

Table 5-2: Build Traffic Forecasts – Alternative 2

KEY LOCATIONS 2018 BYNB Traffic Forecast

2010 Base Year Model ADTs 2018 BYB Traffic

Forecast Recommended Annual Growth Rate 2018-2040

2040 FYNB Traffic Forecast

2040 Future Year Model ADTs 2040 FYB Traffic

Forecast NB B % Change NB B % Change

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 19,600 12121 12445 2.60% 20,200 1.50% 26,400 25082 26888 6.72% 28,200 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Parkton Road (SR 1118) 18,800 15379 16021 4.01% 19,600 1.50% 25,300 28032 31344 10.57% 27,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Porter Road (SR 1125) 15,800 11501 13456 14.53% 18,200 1.50% 21,300 16633 22626 26.49% 27,000 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street (SR 1123) 14,800 11762 13744 14.42% 17,200 1.50% 20,100 15819 21819 27.50% 25,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 14,800 12457 14410 13.55% 17,200 1.50% 20,000 15485 21382 27.58% 25,800 NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) 14,800 - - 14.17% 17,200 1.50% 20,000 - - 27.19% 25,800 Edwin Deaver Road West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,800 113 146 22.60% 1,800 0.50% 2,000 - - 22.60% 2,300 Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 8,800 5021 5234 4.07% 9,200 1.00% 10,900 12311 12836 4.09% 11,300 Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 7,400 6563 6516 -0.72% 7,400 1.00% 9,000 13620 12232 -11.35% 8,000 Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,000 2353 2352 -0.04% 1,000 0.50% 1,200 2743 2743 0.00% 1,200 Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 1,200 2698 2697 -0.04% 1,200 1.30% 1,600 3141 3141 0.00% 1,700 Jefferson Street (SR 1123) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 200 - - 0.00% 200 2.30% 300 - - 0.00% 300 Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) 400 - - 0.00% 400 1.30% 600 - - 0.00% 600


5-4

A step-by-step methodology is provided below:

1. Determine 2018 BYNB traffic forecast volumes 2. Use FTDM to generate 2010 BYB and BYNB traffic forecast volumes for Alternatives 1 and 2 3. Determine percent change between the FTDM 2010 BYNB and BYB forecast volumes 4. Apply FTDM percent change to 2018 BYNB traffic forecast volumes 5. Determine turning movements and balance forecast volumes for 2018 BYB Alternatives 1 and

2 6. Review and finalize 2018 BYB forecast volumes

TFU worksheets were developed to determine 2018 BYB traffic forecast volumes at each study area intersection. TFU spreadsheets are found in Appendix C. 2018 BYB traffic forecast volumes were balanced along the corridor using Engineering judgement. 2018 BYB volumes for Alternative 1 and Alternative 2 are found in Tables 5-1 and 5-2 (respectively) below. 2018 BYB Alternative 1 and Alternative 2 volumes, design hour factors, peak hour directional splits, and truck percentages are included in Figures 4 and 5, respectively. 5.4 DESIGN FACTORS

2018 BYNB design factors were reviewed to determine if changes were needed due to the construction of either Alternative. Based on this review, it was determined that no changes were required do the construction of either Alternative.


6-1

6 FUTURE YEAR NO-BUILD (FYNB) FORECAST

6.1 ASSUMPTIONS

For the FYNB traffic forecast, it was assumed that all fiscally constrained projects discussed below (aside from U-6001) are included in the FTDM. 6.2 FISCAL CONSTRAINT

There are several fiscally constrained projects found in the FAMPO 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (dated April 16, 2014) and NCDOT STIP that are assumed to be complete and open to traffic by 2040. Each project will impact traffic and travel patterns in the project study area. Listed below are projects that are (a) up / downstream of the NC-59 corridor, (b) connected to the NC-59 corridor, or (c) parallel to the NC-59 corridor:

• U-3849 – Elk Road (SR 1363) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2012) • U-2809 – Legion Road (SR 1132) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2040) • (No STIP #) – Parkton Road (SR 1118) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2040) • U-4709 – Rockfish Road (SR 1112) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2026) • U-4710 – Golfview Road (SR 1115) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • (No STIP #) – Chicken Foot Road (Local) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • (No STIP #) – Golfview Road (Local) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • (No STIP #) – NC-59 (Local) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2033) • U-4706 – Cameron Road (SR 1131) – Widen to 4-Lane Divided (2026)

6.3 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

There are no major anticipated developments proposed in the project study area that will affect travel patterns along the subject corridor. 6.4 METHODOLOGY

The 2040 FYNB traffic forecast volumes (see Table 5-1 and Table 5-2) were estimated by applying growth rates to the 2018 BYNB traffic forecast volumes. The selected growth rates were calculated using linear extrapolation from historic AADT values (from 10 and 20 years of data), growth rates calculated from the FDTM model outputs, adjacent forecast data, and input from Stakeholders. Historic data ranged from -2.71% to 1.42% where FTDM outputs ranged from 0.55% to 4.84%. When surveyed, project Stakeholders felt that a moderate area growth rate (~2.0%) was appropriate for use. The B-4491 traffic forecast used a 2.5% growth rate (between 2013 and 2035) for NC-59 (S Main Street) at Jefferson Street / Monticello Avenue (SR 1123). Additionally, growth rates of 1.3% and 2.3% (from B-4491) were used for Jefferson Street and Monticello Avenue (SR 1123), respectively. Table 6-1 includes the recommended growth rates for each study area corridor.


6-2

Table 6-1: Recommended Growth Rates

KEY LOCATIONS Historic Growth Rate

B-4491 Traffic Forecast

2010 NB Model AADT

2040 NB Model AADT

Model Growth Rate Recommended

Growth Rate 2018 - 2040 2006 - 2016 1996 - 2016 2010 - 2040

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Cameron Road (SR 1131) / Edwin Deaver Road 0.38% 0.81% - 12,121 25,082 3.56% 1.50% NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Parkton Road (SR 1118) -0.69% 0.88% - 15,379 28,032 2.74% 1.50%

NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Porter Road (SR 1125) -0.86% 0.75% - 11,501 16,633 1.49% 1.50% NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Monticello Avenue / Jefferson Street (SR 1123) - - 2.50% 11,762 15,819 1.15% 1.50% NC-59 (S Main Street) North of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) - - 2.50% 12,457 15,485 0.81% 1.50% NC-59 (S Main Street) South of Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) -0.40% 1.42% 2.50% - - - 1.50% Edwin Deaver Road West of NC-59 (S Main Street) - - - 113 - - 0.50% Cameron Road (SR 1131) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) -2.71% -1.42% - 5,021 12,311 4.84% 1.00% Parkton Road (SR 1118) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) 0.06% 0.47% - 6,563 13,620 3.58% 1.00% Porter Road (SR 1125) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) - - - 2,353 2,743 0.55% 0.50% Monticello Avenue (SR 1123) West of NC-59 (S Main Street) -0.69% -0.64% 1.30% 2,698 3,141 0.55% 1.30% Jefferson Street (SR 1123) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) - - 2.30% - - - 2.30% Betsy Ross Drive (SR 3352) East of NC-59 (S Main Street) - - - - - - 1.30%


6-3

Engineering judgement (based on all available data) was used to determine final growth rates. Unique growth rates were calculated and applied to each corridor (see tables above). A step-by-step methodology is provided below:

1. Determine 2018 BYNB traffic forecast volumes 2. Use TFU to determine 10 and 20-year linear growth rates from historic data 3. Use FTDM to generate 2010 BYNB and 2040 FYNB forecast volumes 4. Determine growth rate between the FTDM 2010 BYNB and 2040 FYNB forecast volumes 5. Use input from Stakeholders to validate historic and model data 6. Use data from adjacent B-4491 traffic forecast 7. Determine appropriate growth rate for each corridor using Engineering judgement 8. Apply recommended growth rate to 2018 BYNB traffic forecast volumes 9. Determine 2040 FYNB turning movements and balance forecast volumes 10. Review and finalize 2040 FYNB forecast volumes

The 2040 FYNB traffic forecasts were used as the foundation to develop the 2040 FYB (Alternative 1 and 2) traffic forecasts. 2040 FYNB volumes, design hour factors, peak hour directional splits, and truck percentages are included in Figure 6. 6.5 DESIGN FACTORS

2040 FYNB design factors were reviewed to determine if changes were needed due to the construction of any fiscally constrained projects and / or redistributed traffic volumes. Based on this review, it was determined that additional TTSTs (increase from 2% to 3%) would utilize the NC-59 (S Main Street) corridor to travel to / from I-95 Business and I-95. This modification is consistent with the adjacent B-4491 Traffic Forecast. All other Dual and TTST percentage remained consistent.


7-1

7 FUTURE YEAR BUILD (FYB) FORECAST

7.1 ASSUMPTIONS

The same assumptions stated above for all FYNB analyses were applied to the FYB analyses for Alternatives 1 and 2. Additionally, the widening of NC-59 (S Main Street), U-6001, was added to all model runs.

7.2 ALTERNATIVES

Two Alternatives were analyzed for the FYB forecast: (1) widening NC-59 to a three-lane cross-section and (2) widening NC-59 to a four-lane cross-section. Figure 7 shows the FYB traffic forecast for Alternative 1 and Figure 8 shows the FYB traffic forecast for Alternative 2. 7.3 METHODOLOGY

To determine the FYB forecast volumes, the FYNB volumes were multiplied by the percent change between the FTDM FYNB volumes and FYB volumes. As shown in Table 5-1, percentages ranged from -3.21% to 7.07% for Alternative 1. As shown in Table 5-2, percentages ranged from -11.35% to 27.58% for Alternative 2. For NC-59 south of Betsy Ross Drive (where model data did not exist), an average percent change of the adjacent segments was assumed (where an increase number of commuters would potentially adjust travel patterns to utilize the additional capacity). A change of 0.0% was used for collector streets. Where widening NC-59 will provide additional capacity for commuter volumes, it will not affect volumes within area neighborhoods. Area patrons will continue to travel on NC-59 regardless of the proposed roadway cross-section. A step-by-step methodology is provided below:

1. Determine FYNB traffic forecast volumes 2. Use FTDM to generate FYNB and FYB traffic forecast volumes for Alternatives 1 and 2 3. Determine percent change between the FTDM FYNB and FYB forecast volumes 4. Apply FTDM percent change to FYNB traffic forecast volumes 5. Determine turning movements and balance forecast volumes for Alternatives 1 and 2 6. Review and finalize FYB forecast volumes

TFU worksheets were developed to determine FYB traffic forecast volumes at each study area intersection. TFU spreadsheets are found in Appendix C. FYB traffic forecast volumes were balanced along the corridor using Engineering judgement. 2040 FYB volumes for Alternative 1 and Alternative 2 are found in Tables 5-1 and 5-2 (respectively) below. 2040 BYB Alternative 1 and Alternative 2 volumes, design hour factors, peak hour directional splits, and truck percentages are included in Figures 7 and 8. 7.4 DESIGN FACTORS

2040 FYB design factors were reviewed to determine if changes were needed due to the construction of any fiscally constrained projects and / or redistributed traffic volumes. Based on this review, it was determined that additional TTSTs (2% to 3%) would utilize the NC-59 (S Main Street) corridor to travel to / from I-95 Business and I-95. This modification is consistent with the adjacent B-4491 Traffic Forecast.

Figure

1

NC-59 (S Main Street) Widening

Cumberland CountyTIP: U-6001

Legend= Study Area

Intersection

Project Study Area

Figure

2

NC-59 (S Main Street) Widening

Cumberland CountyTIP: U-6001

Legend= Class Count

Location= TMC

Location

Turning Movement / Classification Traffic Count Locations

DATE: 1-25-2018

PREPARED BY: Jeff Hochanadel, PE, PTOE

COUNTY: Cumberland DIVISION: 6

TIP: U-6001 WBS: 46960.1.1

LOCATION: NC 59 (South Main Street): SR 1243 (Shipman Road) to SR 1118 (Parkton Road)

PROJECT: NC-59 (South Main Street)Widening

L E G E N D

###1-X

KPMD

( d, t )

No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100sLess than 50 vpdMovement Prohibited

Design Hour Factor (%)PM Peak PeriodPeak Hour Direction Split (%)Indicates Direction of DDuals, TT-STs (%)

2018 AVERAGE ANNUALDAILY TRAFFIC FIGURE 3

N

Not To Scale

1

2

3

4

5

SR 3352Betsy Ross Drive

SR 1123Jefferson Street

SR 1131Cameron Road

Edwin Deaver Road SR 1123Monticello Avenue

SR 1125Porter Road

SR 1118Parkton Road

1 2 3 4 5

Base Year No Build

DATE: 1-25-2018



TIP: U-6001 WBS: 46960.1.1



L E G E N D

###1-X

KPMD

( d, t )




N

Not To Scale

1

2

3

4

5



SR 1131Cameron Road


SR 1125Porter Road

SR 1118Parkton Road

1 2 3 4 5

BYB – Alternative 1

DATE: 1-25-2018



TIP: U-6001 WBS: 46960.1.1



L E G E N D

###1-X

KPMD

( d, t )




N

Not To Scale

1

2

3

4

5



SR 1131Cameron Road


SR 1125Porter Road

SR 1118Parkton Road

1 2 3 4 5

BYB – Alternative 2

DATE: 1-25-2018



TIP: U-6001 WBS: 46960.1.1



L E G E N D

###1-X

KPMD

( d, t )




N

Not To Scale

1

2

3

4

5



SR 1131Cameron Road


SR 1125Porter Road

SR 1118Parkton Road

1 2 3 4 5

Future Year No Build

DATE: 1-25-2018



TIP: U-6001 WBS: 46960.1.1



L E G E N D

###1-X

KPMD

( d, t )




N

Not To Scale

1

2

3

4

5



SR 1131Cameron Road


SR 1125Porter Road

SR 1118Parkton Road

1 2 3 4 5

FYB – Alternative 1

DATE: 1-25-2018



TIP: U-6001 WBS: 46960.1.1



L E G E N D

###1-X

KPMD

( d, t )




N

Not To Scale

1

2

3

4

5



SR 1131Cameron Road


SR 1125Porter Road

SR 1118Parkton Road

1 2 3 4 5

FYB – Alternative 2

Documents

Project Level Traffic Forecast Report · Development Activity:Based upon information provided by Darius Sturdivant (NCDOT Division . 6) there are currently no specific plans for development