Next generation Technologies for networked Europe

Project ID: 768884

H2020-NMBP-CSA-2017

Megatrends and trends identification

for future supply chain scenarios

Wednesday, 21 February 2018, Brussels

Agenda

• Megatrend and trend definition

• Research design

• Overview of the megatrends and their associated trends• Political

• Economic

• Social

• Technological

• Legal

• Environmental

• Conclusion and future work

What are megatrends and trends?

• Megatrends (non-sector specific) drive trends and due totheir slow but continual progress possible future scenariosand hypotheses could be derived about how specificindustries might evolve.

• Trend is a prevailing tendency or inclination .

Figure 1: Impact and time horizon of megatrends Figure 2: Examples of megatrends and trends

Source: Pictet asset management, (2017). What are megatrends?, available at: https://www.am.pictet/en/netherlands/articles/2017/megatrends/what-are-megatrends

Source: De Meyer, (2012). Long-term HRM strategy - turning HR into a crucial

instrument for the long-term success of your company, available at:

https://www.slideshare.net/fdemeyer/hrm-megatrends-workshop-june-2012

Research design

Phase 1• Literature review

Phase 2• PESTLE analysis

Phase 3 • Experts workshop

Phase 4• Final Report

• Review of key papers and reports (349 in total)

• Data analysis software is used (NVivo)

• Tuesday 5th December 2017 at Aston University

• Brainstorming session

• 2nd draft the megatrends and trends

• Identification of megatrends

• Extraction and grouping of trends

• 1st draft version megatrends and trends.

• Revision of the megatrends and trends

• D2.1 Report on trends and key factors, available at

https://nextnetproject.eu/

Phase 1 – Literature Review

Scientific Publications:

Major scientific databases:

• Science Direct

• Emerald

• Google Scholar

European roadmaps (FOF, SPIRE, ICT, …)

And sectoral studies, other strategic

roadmaps, governmental reports, visionary

insights and data from Eurostat.

Phase 2 - PESTLE Analysis

22 megatrends and 66 trends are identified

Megatrends

Phase 3 - Experts workshop05.12.17 @ Aston University

Phase 4. Final List of Trends

Megatrends and trends: Political dimension

Political

Protectionism

Political stability

Supranationalism

• Import tariffs

• Quotas

• Different tax structures

• Subsidies

Trends

• Terrorism/conflict

• Social unrest

• Trade agreements

• Free movement

Megatrends and trends: Economic dimension

Economic

Global trade shift

Digital economy

Financial Innovation

• Economic growth in emerging

economies,

• Export growth,

• Investment,

• Globalisation/glocalisation,

• Emergence of born-global firms

Trends

• Sharing economy,

• From an economy of goods to

an economy of services

Digital currencies,

Cashless payment,

The financial technologies (Fintech)

revolution

Example: Digital economy

• Sharing economy: ↑35% per year, leading to €0.5 trillion of total commerce by2025 , >€80 billion in potential revenues.

• Media consumption ↑ e.g. Netflix, Amazon, Spotify. The global audio and video traffic will reach 82% of all internet traffic by 2018.

Megatrends and trends: Social dimension (1/2)

Social

Population growth

Demographic change

Urbanisation

Change in consumption pattern

• Population boom in the

developing countries

• Growing demand of resources

(e.g. land)

Trends

• Ageing population boom in

developing countries

• Young population boom in

developing countries

• Migration flows

• Labour shortages

• Middle-class explosion

• Healthy diets and lifestyles

• Consumerism

• Megacities

• Smart cities

Example: Urbanisation (1/2)

• Over 50% of the global population lives in urban cities, ↑ by 66% in 2050

• The global urban population ↑ 1.63% per year between 2020 and 2025 and1.44% per year between 2025 and 2030

• Over 80% of the population will live in urban cities in Europe by 2050

Example: Urbanisation (2/2)

• ↑4.9% GDP/year across 22 megacities , $9.4 trillion of the total GDP by 2020

• The global market for smart city solutions ↑ by 13%/year over the coming decade, $ 28 billion in 2023

• The Asia-Pacific region will ↑16%/year, Europe moderate growth 13%

Global market size for smart

city solutions [USD billion]

Megatrends and trends: Social dimension(2/2)

Social

Individualism

Digital natives

Knowledge based economy

• New customer relationship

• New shopping experience

• Increase customisation

Trends

• Change of

communication patterns

• Change of purchasing

patterns

• Reshaping the workplace

• Increase demand for high-

qualification jobs

• Emerging skills required

• Continuous learning culture

Example: Knowledge based economy

• Between 2010 and 2020 some 80 million job opportunities will arise for the EU countries, >higher-level occupations

• There are only 90,000 STEM graduates annually and more than 800,000 technology posts will be unfilled due to the skills gap by 2020.

Megatrends and trends: Technological dimension

Technological

Digital transformation

Technology development and automatisation

Electrification of transport

Renewable energy sources

• Big data analytics

• Artificial intelligence

• Cloud based computer systems

• Blockchain

• Internet of Things

Trends

• Robots

• Cyber-physical system

• Augmented reality and virtual reality

• 3D printing/additive manufacturing

• Drones

• Autonomous systems

• Automated guided vehicles, Wearable

devices

• Production and storage of clean energy

and application to transportation and

industry

• Renewable energy for industrial

processes

• Battery electric vehicles

• Hydrogen fuel cell electric

vehicles

• Hybrid vehicles

Example: Big Data Analytics

• Banking, discrete manufacturing, and process manufacturing companies will invest more than other companies

• Software sales will ↑ $70 billion by 2020 and many companies per countries in 2016 conducted different analyses from big data.

Top 5 big data analytics industries

Megatrends and trends: Legal dimension

Legal

Consumer protection laws

Intellectual property law

Social and environmental regulations

• Cross-border payments

• Return products free of

charge or under warranty

• Product safety regulations

• Privacy

Trends

• Patents

• Data sovereignty

• Corporate social

responsibility

• Emissions control regulations

• Waste and resources

management regulations

Megatrends and trends: Environmental dimension

Environmental

Climate change

Resource scarcity

• Pollution

Trends

• Lack of resources such as

water, land, energy, food

and rare earth elements

• Waste increase

Example: Land and food scarcity

• Land scarcity especially in densely populated cities

• Demand for food ↑, mostly driven by population growth, better livingconditions in developing countries and changing eating habits

Evolution of per capita food

consumption (kcal/person/day)

Worldwide evolution of

land use

Example: Rare earth elements (REEs) scarcity

• REEs demand from clean technologies (e.g. dysprosium and neodymium)will reach 51.9 thousand metric tons in 2030.

• EU is dependent for REEs on other parts of the world. Supply risks stemfrom the fact that production is concentrated mainly in China

Global demand for Rare Earth Oxides (REO)

from clean technologies

Conclusion and future work

• Next step includes the definition of development paths for the identified trends.

• The identification of trends is critical for the generation of industrial scenarios for future supply chains.

• The generation of future scenarios will forge the strategic research agenda and policy recommendations to develop measures enabling supply chains to contribute to European economic growth and prosperity.

Next generation Technologies for networked Europe

Project ID: 768884

H2020-NMBP-CSA-2017

THANK YOU