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2016/10/31
Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction
(PSTEP) in Japan
Kanya Kusano
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental ResearchNagoya University
2016 The 4th AOSWA WorkshopAsia Oceania Space Weather AllianceI
24-27Oct., 2016, jeju, Republic of Korea
Outlook
1. Introduction to PSTEP, that is the nation-wide project of space weather and space climate in Japan
2. The study for the physics-based prediction of solar eruption
2016/10/31
2016/10/31
Nagoya UISEE
Institute for Sun-Earth Environmental Research
NICTNAOJISAS/JAXAENRIU EC
Kyoto URIHN
Tohoku U
Hiroshima U
JAEA
Osaka P UHyogo P U
JMANIPRJMA
Kyushu U
Chiba U
JAMSTECU TokyoRIKENMusashino A USekei U
PSTEP NetworkProject for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction
• 20 Institutes & 100 Researchers• Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on
Innovative Areas from MEXT/Japan(2015-2019)
【Objective 1】
To answer fundamental questions of solar-terrestrial
environment: ■ The onset mechanism of solar flares
■ The mechanism of radiation belt dynamics
■ The physical process whereby the sun affects climate
【Objective 2】
To build the base for next-generation space weather
forecast system■ Useful prediction for each industrial activities
■ Physics-based assessment of severe
space weather disaster
Physics-based Prediction+
Network Observation & HPC
2015-2019
Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from MEXT/Japan
太陽地球圏環境予測
科学研究費補助金 新学術領域研究(研究領域提案型)
synergistic interaction
System map of PSTEP models
Solar windSUSANOO
CME injector
AR NLFF
PFSS
SEP transport
REPPU GAIA
Plasmabubbleradiation belt
Solar Dynamo Earth climate systemlong
short
GIC radio propagation simulator
WASAVIES MUSCATEnd-User Models
Sun inter-planetary magnetosphere/ionosphere/atmosphere
stability
solar wind
Magnetosphere IonosphereFAC, BBF
disturbance
CME
Global solar mag.
SEP
dose warning system
TSI, SSI
T, rho
f(v)
Flare MHD
SEPinjection
satellite charge model
UFCORINmachine learning
Prediction of Solar
Eruption
History of Flare Prediction Skill
2016/10/31
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-activity-forecast-verification
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
NICT
Perfect prediction
What determines the onset of solar eruptions?
Observations
TheorySimulations
AR1115observed by Hinode
Ensemble Simulation Study of Trigger
potential field
Normal Shear Reversed Shear
Opposite PolarityRight Polarity Right Polarity
weak shear
strong shear
magnetic sh
ear a
ngle
azimuth angle of small magnetic disturbance
non-potential
potential
potential field
weak shear
Normal Shear Reversed Shear
Opposite PolarityRight Polarity
Flare phase diagram (Kusano et al. 2012)
noeruption
noeruptioneruption
Ensemble Simulation Study
Kinetic Energy
magnetic sh
ear a
ngle
strong shear
2-ribbon flares
Two Types of Triggers
Opposite Polarity Reversed Shear
Two ways to trigger eruptions
sigmoid current sheet
Opposite Polarity Reversed Shear
Observational EvidencesKusano, et al. 2012, Toriumi et al. 2013, Bamba et al. 2013
AR1115AR10930
Opposite Polarity Reversed Shear
Feedback Cycle Model
Eruptive Instability
Magnetic Reconnection
destabilizingMagnetic helicity is
transferred from shear to twisted rope
driving(pull-reconnection)
Jv
Kusano et al. 2012
Opposite Polarity
Reversed Shear
What is the critical state?
Threshold of Instability
Numerical experiments of solar eruption for the various duration of trigger field injection.
h
time
Injection of trigger flux
Point of no return
OP field
critical state
Double Arc Instability
I
𝜙𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙
𝑇 = 𝐵 ∙ 𝛻 × 𝐵
𝐵2𝑑𝑙
𝜿 ≡ 𝑻𝝓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝝓𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍
>𝟏
𝟖𝝅
Critical Parameter
Ishiguro and Kusano 2016 (submitted to ApJ)
magnetic twist
𝜙𝑟𝑒𝑐Normalized flux of tether-cutting reconnection
Inoue, Kusano, Hayashi 2016
NLFFF
Summary
PSTEP is the new nation-wide Japanese project for developing the synergistic interaction b/w R-and-O.
Some approach of physics-based prediction of solar eruption based on the numerical model. A positive feedback b/w instability and reconnection
must be the fundamental mechanism of solar eruption, and there are the two types of triggering processes.
We proposed Double-arc Instability as the key instability for the onset of solar eruptions, in which the critical state can be determined by k-parameter.
NLFFF model may help us to develop a new physics-based prediction of solar eruptions.
2016/10/31