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Central AmericaDavid LeBlanc, Ed White, Bob Summers

Birth Rate vs. Death Rate

BR = DR

Stage 2: Death rate declining rapidly, birth rate declining little.

Stage 3: Death rate reaching low asymptote. Birth rate declining rapidly, but birth rate in 2011 (16 – 32) still higher than death rate (4 – 6).

Demographic Transition

Mexico & Costa Rica

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Guatemala▼

What stage in the Demographic Transition Model?

Death rates have declined to asymptote in Mexico and Costa Rica, but are still declining in Guatemala.

Birth rates declining but are higher than death rates in all countries; birth rates in Guatemala are almost double rates in the other two countries.

Populations still increasing in all three countries.Mexico and Costa Rica are in late Stage 3, while

Guatemala is in the middle of Stage 3.

Population Growth vs Birth RateGeneral pattern of decreasing birth rate associated with decreasing population growth rate.

Population Growth vs Death Rate

As death rate decreased, population growth rate was generally unchanged or decreased (opposite expectation; declining death rate should increase population growth).

What controls population growth rate, birth or death rate?

Changes in population growth rate appear to be more strongly influenced by changes in birth rates than death rates. The time trails for birth rate follow a more linear diagonal trend. The positive association is as expected; higher birth rates should cause increase in population growth rate.

The weak positive correlation b/t population growth and death rate in Mexico and Costa Rica does not have a plausible cause-effect mechanism. Reduced death rate should cause an increase in population growth rate.

Individual Student Work

GuatemalaDavid LeBlanc

Death Rate vs Time

Rate of decrease in death rate has slowed in recent years, but is still declining.

Death rate in 2008 (latest year common to all graphs) ≈ 6

Birth Rate vs Time

Birth rate in 2008 ≈ 33, much higher than death rate ≈ 6.

Birth rate progressively declining through latest year.

Population Size vs Time

Population size progressively increasing

Population Growth Rate vs Time

Population growth rate in 2008 (latest year common to all graphs) ≈ 2.45%.

Year-to-year variation in population growth is not paralleled by variation in birth or death rates; indicates migration influenced population growth .

Explanation from Dr. LeBlancSome countries exhibit large, rapid changes in

population growth rate that are not related to changes in birth or death rates.

The only remaining process that influence population size are immigration and emigration, which often accompany social unrest or war.

Migration data are not available in Gapminder, so its influence on population growth can only be inferred when changes in population growth rate are not coincident in time with changes in birth or death rates.

Costa RicaEd White

Death Rate vs Time

Death rate has decreased to a more or less stable asymptote.

Death rate in 2008 (latest year common to all graphs) ≈ 4

Birth Rate vs Time

Birth rate in 2008 ≈ 16, higher than death rate ≈ 4.

Birth rate progressively declining through latest year, but rate of decrease is slowed somewhat in recent years.

Population Size vs Time

Population size progressively increasing, but rate of increase slowing in most recent years.

Population Growth Rate vs Time

Population growth rate in 2008 (latest year common to all graphs) ≈ 1.4%.

Some variation in population growth rate that is not paralleled by variation in birth or death rates. Migration played minor role in population growth rate.

MexicoBob Summers

Death Rate vs Time

Death rate has decreased to a more or less stable asymptote.

Death rate in 2008 (latest year common to all graphs) ≈ 5

Birth Rate vs Time

Birth rate in 2008 ≈ 19, higher than death rate ≈ 5.

Birth rate progressively declining through latest year.

Population Size vs Time

Population size progressively increasing.

Population Growth Rate vs Time

Population growth rate in 2008 (latest year common to all graphs) ≈ 1.0%.

Variation in population growth rate parallels variation in birth and death rates. Migration played little to no role in population growth rate.