Professor John HandleyUniversity of Manchester

Adapting the city: preparing for climate change in Greater Manchester

with Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly, Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak

Presentation outline

• Global and European climate projections

• UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

• Towards a vulnerability and risk assessment framework

• Recent trends in climate and the climate projections for Greater Manchester

• Climate change risk and impact assessment

• Building adaptive capacity

• Ways forward and priority actions

Climate zones shift in a +4°C world

Source: New, Liverman and Anderson, 2009

Climate change in Europe: high emissions scenario

Source: EC Green Paper, 2007

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

“Potential climate risks in other parts of the world are thought to be much greater than those directly affecting the UK, but could have a significant indirect impact here. These risks include effects on global health, political stability and international supply chains.” Source: UK CCRA 2012

Climate change adaptation

“…adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.” (IPCC 2007)

EcoCities goal: to provide Greater Manchester with its first blueprint for an integrated climate change adaptation strategy, based on leading scientific research and extensive stakeholder engagement.

A framework for climate change risk and vulnerability assessment in urban areas

HazardsTrends and ProjectionsHeat waves

Drought and floodsPrecipitationSea level rise

Adaptive Capacity

Information and Resources

Institutions and Governance

Vulnerability

City size and density

Topography% of poor% of GDP

A new vulnerability and risk management paradigm is emerging as a useful framework for enabling city decision makers to adapt to climate change

Source: World Bank 2009; Urban Climate Change Research Network, 2011

Recent changes and trends in Greater Manchester’s climate

Annual average daily mean temperature (°C) for 1961-1990 and 1971-2000

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1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

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Annual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester, 1914-2006

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)

• Probabilistic climate change projections on a 25x25km grid based on three GHG emissions scenarios

• Weather generator produces hourly and daily outputs of climate for a specific location on a 5x5km grid

Climate projections for Greater Manchester• EcoCities combined both

outputs from UKCP09 by creating a climate classification for Greater Manchester on a 5km grid with climate change projections for the high emissions scenario for the 2050s

• Detailed outputs are also provided for the 5km grid square over central Manchester for 3 scenarios

Climate projections for Greater Manchester

• Climate change projections are shown at three probability levels:� 10% probability level – unlikely to be less than� 50% probability level – as likely as not� 90% probability level – unlikely to be greater

than

Annual mean temperature, 2050s high scenario

Temperature of the warmest day in summer

Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium HighBaseline 2020s 2050s 2080s

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Number of heatwave events per year in central Manchester

Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium HighBaseline 2020s 2050s 2080s

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Number of cooling degree days per year in central Manchester

Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium HighBaseline 2020s 2050s 2080s

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Number of heating degree days per year in central Manchester

Winter mean precipitation

Summer mean precipitation

Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium HighBaseline 2020s 2050s 2080s

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Number of days with heavy rainfall per year in central Manchester

Potential climate change impacts for business• Risks of business disruption due to flooding

• Insurance industry: exposure to flood risk

• Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of overheating in workplaces

• Warmer temperatures might increase the region’s appeal as a tourist destination

• Opportunities to provide adaptation-related products and services at home and abroad

Adapted from UK CCRA 2012

Potential impacts for health and wellbeing

• Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of heat-related death and illness

• Milder winters are projected to result in a major reduction in the risk of cold-related death and illness

• Casualties due to flooding and the impact of floods on mental well-being are both projected to increase

• Health problems caused by air pollution may increase

Adapted from UK CCRA 2012

Potential impacts on buildings and infrastructure• Overheating is an increased risk to building occupants

• Energy demands for cooling are likely to increase

• Energy demands for heating are projected to decrease

• Flood risks to buildings and key infrastructure increase

• Damage to road and rail bridges projected to increase

• Sewers projected to fill and surcharge more frequently

• Water resources are projected to become scarcer

• Functionality of green infrastructure could be impaired by drought

Adapted from UK CCRA 2012

EcoCities carried out research across three levels of scale:

• Greater Manchester (Example 1)

• Neighbourhood (Example 2)

• Building (Example 3)

EcoCities research at three spatial scales

Vulnerability of communities to surface water flooding• Past events and future trends suggest

increasing flood risk

• Assessment of the current vulnerability of communities

• Emergency services as adaptive capacity

• Future economic development of GM will affect the vulnerability of communities

• Future land use changes will affect the risk of surface flooding

Greater Manchester

Neighbourhood

Building

Hazards

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Adapting The Corridor with green infrastructure

• Increasing occurrence of high temperatures and heat waves

• City centres are particularly vulnerable due to UHI

• Green Infrastructure as an adaptive measure

• Importance of The Corridor partnership in delivering the changes

Greater Manchester

Neighbourhood

Building

© John McAslan and Partners, Manchester

Hazards

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Retrofitting office buildings for higher temperatures• High temperatures are on the increase but cold

spells still require appropriate measures

• Worker productivity is affected by their thermal comfort

• Retrofitting physical measures is one solution

• Adaptive capacity can also be seen in human expectations and behaviour

• Adaption to climate change needs to address overheating, enhance human comfort, reduce costs and help mitigation actions

Greater Manchester

Neighbourhood

Building

Hazards

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

EcoCities – Four degrees of preparationEcoCities findings are presented on a website including a spatial portal, document library, related research and additional resources

www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk

From blueprint to action...?

• The Greater Manchester Climate Strategy aims to shape Greater Manchester as a place that radically cuts emissions and secures growth whilst minimising vulnerability and increasing resilience to a rapidly changing climate.

• It will strengthen adaptation functions that operate on a sub-regional / regional scale, e.g. water supply, flood risk management, transport and green infrastructure

Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy 2011-2020

Meeting the adaptation challenge (1)

Greater Manchester is potentially well-placed to meet the adaptation challenge because:

1. The frameworks for natural process (watershed and airshed) are broadly congruent with the administrative geography of GM;

Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy 2011-2020

Meeting the adaptation challenge (2)

2. The governance frameworks linking district to district, and districts to business and the wider community are substantially in place

3. There is a shared commitment to action on adaptation through the GM Strategy and GM Climate Strategy

4. Partnership working with the University sector is gaining strength, e.g. EcoCities

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

• Priorities for action within next 5 years:� Flood and coastal erosion risk

management

� Specific aspects of natural ecosystems

� Management of water resources, particularly in areas with increasing water scarcity

� Overheating of buildings and other infrastructure in the urban environment

� Risks to health, e.g. from heatwaves and flooding

� Economic opportunities, especially to develop adaptation products and services

Source: UK CCRA 2012

Key actions at conurbation level

Strategic planning• Green Infrastructure Framework• Strategic Flood Risk Assessment• Biodiversity Action Plan• Climate Vulnerability

Assessment?

Emergency planning• NHS Manchester Heatwave Plan

2010• The Greater Manchester Resilience

Forum• Greater Manchester Risk Register• Ensuring a diverse set of

responses are in place to target all communities?

Taking foward the climate change partnership• Using EcoCities resources to tackle vulnerability and

building adaptive capacity towards Safeguarding Communities

• Investing for the long-term in our Buildings and Infrastructure to increase resilience to future extreme weather events and to complement mitigation strategies

• Keeping the links open between private, public and voluntary sectors to support the generation of innovative Finance and Investment mechanisms.

Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.

Adapting the city