Professor Emeritus, Centre for Climate Change and ... Presentation March 2015 Ainun... · Climate Change Challenges: Road to Paris (2015) and Beyond Ainun Nishat Ph.D. Professor Emeritus,

Climate Change Challenges: Road to Paris (2015) and Beyond

Ainun Nishat Ph.D.

Professor Emeritus, Centre for Climate Change

and Environmental Research, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research (C3ER) March 2015

• Climate change and climate variability are now real. A stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon.

• The IPCC-FAR(2007) concluded, and IPCC-V (2014) reconfirmed that global warming is unequivocally the result of human activities.

• Scientific consensus is clear; possible adverse impacts have been established. Now, the whole world collectively needs to urgently focus on what to do about it.

• Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda. COP 21 in Paris is expected to deliver a legally binding agreement/protocol that will address all aspects of Climate Change. Intense negotiations are going on among the Parties towards finalization of this document.

Is there any doubt that Climate Change real ?


Some Definitions……

Climate Change: any change in climate over time.

Climate Variability: variations in the mean state

and other statistics (such as occurrence of

extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and

spatial scales.

Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing

environment..

Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or

enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.


The Past is NOT the Future


Bangladesh to face Climate

Climate Change induced hazards

• Recognized globally as one of the most vulnerable (possibly the most vulnerable country) to adverse impacts of Climate Change

• Experiencing the increased frequencies and intensities of natural disasters. – Erratic rainfall; changes in seasons

– Short duration heavy rainfall causing land slides and drainage congestion in urban areas

– Flood with higher intensity

– Cyclones and Tidal surges, and Tornadoes

– Salinity intrusion

– Drought-like phenomenon

– River bank erosion


Parameters: drought,

flood and cyclone


Bangladesh CC Stratrgy and Action Plan 2009…

Six pillars (Themes)

– Food security, social protection & health security

– Comprehensive disaster management

– Infrastructure development

– Research and knowledge management

– Mitigation and low carbon development

– Capacity building – institutional and human


On Adaptation, we expect from

global community ……

• Legally binding CCdeal to keep temperature below 2.0°C (preferably 1.5 °C) above pre-industrial level. Level of Mitigation achieved will determine the level of Adaptation that will be required, in future.

• Support Adaptation towards food security, livelihood security, health security and water security and management of displaced people/ (migration).

• Finance will be made available to respond to CC impacts.


Expectation from Paris COP…….

• Let me raise 7 points

a. Support NAP implementation

b. Support co-benefits from Adaptation and Mitigation

c. Address Loss and Damage

d. Support management of Climate change induced

migration process

e. Build capacity to design and implement projects

f. Develop plans for management of SLR and increase

in salinity

g. Support in management of trans-boundary water

resources on a regional approach


1. Support implementation of NAP

• Like all LDCs Bangladesh is preparing their NAP;

Road map has been developed,

• Priority areas have been selected

– Protection of coastal belt from storm surge

– Management of changes in climatic seasons,

– Management erratic rainfall causing floods and

drought-like conditions

• Paris may decide on reservation of some fund

from GCF for implementation of the NAPs.


1. Support NAP implementation…….

• Experience of NAPA implementation has been

very poor.

• Trust building among developing-countries and

developed-countries on support that will be forth-

coming for implementation of Adaptation projects

is essential. Developing countries expect that 50%

of GCF will be allocated for Adaptation.

• For implementation of NAPA, there has been no

central monitoring. For implementation of NAP,

strong monitoring mechanism, through Adaptation

Committee may be set up.


• Global attention is on Mitigation and reduction of

GHGs.

• There could be many projects that would

contribute to both Adaptation and Mitigation, e.g.

– Coastal afforestation would reduce height of storm

surges and also sequester carbon;

– Urban waste management projects could reduce GHG

production and also support agriculture through supply

of organic fertilizers;

2. Support co-benefits from Adaptation

and Mitigation


• Broadly defined Loss and Damage is

– situations beyond Adaptation, and

– impact of slow onset events ( like SLR, ocean

acidification)

• Recommendations of the Warsaw International

Mechanism on L&D will be available in 2016.

• How L&D will be addressed in 2015, Paris

document remains as a big concern.

3. Address Loss and Damage


• Decision 14(f) taken in Cop 16, in Cancun (2010)

recognized that issues related to climate change

induced displaced people and migrants need to

be addressed.

• Paris may work out a well defined mechanism to

address issues emerging on this subject.

4. Support management of Climate change

induced migration process


• Capacity building, and transfer of technology are

discussed in the COPs and are well documented

in various decisions.

• These two areas need to be translated into

actionable program specially in the LDCs.

• Lack of capacity is not only in human resources,

but also with instrumentation, monitoring and

evaluation, planning and projection of future

events (i.e. technological) as well as in fudiciary

process.

5. Build capacity to design and implement projects


• Response to floods, droughts, urban drainage

problems, storm surge and cyclones are known to

professionals but response to sea level rise and

snow and glacier melting is to evolve.

• Migration of people from coastal belt in countries

with low lying deltaic plains, due to increase in

salinity, is already evident in countries like

Bangladesh

6. Support management of SLR and

increase in salinity


• Water is a finite resource; on the other hand

demand is increasing due increase in demand in

agriculture and industrial sectors,

• The importance regional approach in

management trans-boundary water resources is

recognized in COP decisions. Paris COP may

work further on this issue towards urgent

resolution of emerging concerns.

7. Management of trans-boundary water

resources on a regional approach


Finally…….

• We must prepare for Adaptation to Climate Variability (the already occurring extreme events) and keep in mind the trends indicated in Climate Change forecasts. This is very important for all countries specially for the LDCs, SIDS and countries in Africa suffering from floods and drought, as well as for all Developing Countries.

• Science is clear; we need political will to achieve success both in Adaptation and Mitigation.


Thank

you for your patience

Documents

Professor Emeritus, Centre for Climate Change and ... Presentation March 2015 Ainun... · Climate Change Challenges: Road to Paris (2015) and Beyond Ainun Nishat Ph.D. Professor Emeritus,