Professor Bob CarterInstitute of Public Affairs, MelbourneInternational Climate Science Coalition

Why is this?

Salvador Dali – 1931 - The Persistence of Memory - MoMA

Dali’esque scienceHeartland ICCC-9Mandalay BayLas VegasJuly 9th, 2014

Why does the NIPCC matter?

The Framework Convention on Climate Change (1994, Article 1.2) refers to:

“A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”.

Four things to know about the IPCC

‘Rajendra Pachauri, in The Guardian, Sept. 20, 2013 “We are an intergovernmental body and we do what the governments of the world want us to do.”

“If the governments decide we should do things differently and come up with a vastly different set of products we would be at their beck and call.”

1. A RESTRICTED BRIEF

2. A POLITICAL BODY

IPCC Statements on Global Warming, 1990-2013The observed [20th century temperature] increase could be largely due to …. natural variability.

IPCC, 1st AR, 1990

The balance of the evidence suggests a discernible human influence on climate.IPCC, 2nd AR, 1996

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

IPCC, 3rd AR, 2001

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely [>90% probable*] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

IPCC, 4th AR, 2007

It is extremely likely [>95% probable*] that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature since the 1950s.

IPCC, 5th AR draft, 2012

Four things to know about the IPCC

3. INCREASING ALARMISM

4. HOCUS POCUS SCIENCE

HOCUS POCUS SCIENCEThe IPCC redefines probability theory

1. A restricted brief 3. Increasingly alarmist2. A political body 4. Hocus pocus science

Four things to know about the NIPCC

• NIPCC advisory scientists are fully independent and beholden to nobody; many, being retired, are also highly experienced and knowledgable.

• NIPCC activities are funded by untied family foundation donations; no financial conflict of interest exists.

• NIPCC summarizes peer-reviewed scientific literature about climate change “in the round”; no a priori assumptions are made about the importance of particular causatory agents.

• NIPCC acts as a Red Team that undertakes due diligence on the conclusions and recommendations of the IPCC Green Team.

"In general, we look for a new law by the following process.  

First, we guess it.

Dr. Richard Feynman, “The Character of Natural Law”, The MIT Press, 1965, p. 156.

Then we compute the consequencesof the guess to see what would beimplied if this law that we guessed is right.

Then we compare the result of thecomputation to nature, with experimentor experience, compare it directly with observation to see if it works.

[HYPOTHESIS]

“It’s that simple statement that is the key to science.

It does not make any difference how beautiful your guess is.

It does not make any difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is …. “

“If it disagrees with experiment [or observation] it is wrong."

RICHARD FEYNMAN on WHAT IS SCIENCE?

Which is why the IPCC’s Dali’esque hypothesis of DAGW is wrong; we need a different paradigm – ANDREW WYETH

Andrew Wyeth – Christina’s World – 1948 - MoMA

Christina is most surely a lead member of the climate RED TEAM

The role of hypothesis testing in science

The hypothesis implicit in all IPCC writings, though rarely explicitly stated, is:

That dangerous global warming is resulting, or will result, from human-related greenhouse gas emissions.

The null hypothesis is:

That currently observed changes in global climate, and in the physical and biological environment, result from natural variability.

Andrew Wyeth – Christina’s World - 1948

GREEN TEAM - IPCC toils unceasingly to discover or provide evidence that validates its hypothesis.

RED TEAM - NIPCC examines all evidence to try to invalidate the null hypothesis.

Feynman again – “the first principle is not to fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool” And the problem with the IPCC is that they have not only fooled themselves, but many influential people around the world as well

GUARDIANANGELS

We humans are a strange slecies – strive for impartiality, but prone to emotionalism – don’t have to be religious to feel the power of Brazil’s famouns statue …..

Angel of the NorthAntony Gormley - 1998Gateshead, England

Cristo RedentorPaul Landowski & Heitor da Silva Costa - 1931Rio de Janiero

54 x 20 m

40 m high

There is another guardian angel that few have observed,Though many have seen the site at which it is erected

NIPCC – The guardian of integrity in climate science

The 2000 Millennium Sculptures – Clemens Jöckle WoytekMt. Hakepa, Pitt Island, Chatham Islands, NZ

ASTRONOMERQuesting

“They give thought to the creation of heaven and earth”

Ibn Rushd Averroes, 12th C

PHILOSOPHERWisdomIntegrity

NEWBORNNew ideas

Future hope

MASAI WARRIORDignity

Strength

Team Red

Millennium TV show in 2000 (ii) 10,000 km to S. America – SIZE ISN’T EVERYTHING

• Climate has always changed, and it always will. There is nothing unusual about the modern magnitudes or rates of change of temperature, ice volume, sea-level or extreme weather events.

• Attempting to “stop climate change” is an expensive act of utter futility.

• The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to adapt to it – both benign warmings and the more dangerous coolings (cf. earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storms).

• Atmospheric CO2 is neither a pollutant, nor the primary forcing agent for temperature change; rather, CO2 is an overall benefice for humankind.

The Mediaeval Warm Period

The Little Ice Age

• The assumption that prior to the industrial revolution the earth had a “more stable” climate is simply wrong.

SIX IMPORTANTNIPCC CONCLUSIONS

• The most likely medium term threat may be of damaging cooling.

• Climate has always changed, and it always will. There is nothing unusual about the modern magnitudes or rates of change of temperature, ice volume, sea-level or extreme weather events.

• Attempting to “stop climate change” is an expensive act of utter futility.

• The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to adapt to it – both benign warmings and the more dangerous coolings (cf. earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storms).

• Atmospheric CO2 is neither a pollutant, nor the primary forcing agent for temperature change; rather, CO2 is an overall benefice for humankind.

The Mediaeval Warm Period

The Little Ice Age

• The assumption that prior to the industrial revolution the earth had a “more stable” climate is simply wrong.

SIX IMPORTANTNIPCC CONCLUSIONS

• The most likely medium term threat may be of damaging cooling.

NIPCC primary conclusions

Climate alarmism now in free-fall:

Why NIPCC matters

http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/reports.html

“The best and most comprehensive source of

alternative scientific views are Heartland Institute’s NIPCC volumes.”

”Any speaker, any authority, any journalist or bureaucrat asserting the catastrophic danger

of supposed man-caused global warmingneeds to be asked for their response to

[NIPCC report] Climate Change Reconsidered.If they have none, then they are not qualified

to address the subject.”Romney's Pending Sellout on Global Warming

Peter Ferrara, American Spectator, 3.7.12

ICEHOUSE

COLD

~100 C

Diagram courtesy Alan Mix, Oregon State University

WARMIn surface waters

at highlatitudes

equivalent to

Representing

200,000climate data points

Myth 1: Today’s temperature is unusually warmMyth 2: Before the industrial revolution, climate was “stable”Myth 3: Biodiversity crisis if T goes up 2 deg. C

CONTEXT 1 – Is late 20th C temperature unusual?The last 6 million years – ODP Sites, Central Pacific Ocean

After Professor Ole Humlum, http://www.climate4you.com/

HOLOCENECLIMATICOPTIMUM

CONTEXT 2 - The late 20th century warming; and CO2

WHY SO LITTLE CORRELATION?

WHY SO LITTLE CORRELATION?

Because above about 150 ppm, climate sensitivity to incremental increases in CO2 is very low. Such increases

therefore cause very little further warming.

So what sensitivity is assumed by the computer models then?

280 ppm (or even 390 or 560 ppm) indicates

CO2 starvation compared with the

geological past

Myth 4 – Atmospheric CO2 is at unusually high levels todayMyth 5 – More CO2 will cause dangerous warming

CONTEXT 3 – CO2 AND ALL THAT JAZZCO2 levels through time

CONTEXT 3 – CO2 AND ALL THAT JAZZCO2 levels through time

Randall J. Donohue, R.J., McVicar, T.R., Roderick, M.L. & Farquhar, G.D.CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia

CO2 fertilisation has increased maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments

A new study of arid regions around the globe finds that a CO2 “fertilization effect” has caused a gradual greening from 1982 to 2010.

The team’s model predicted that foliage would increase by some 5 to 10% given the 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the study period. The satellite data agreed, showing an 11 percent increase in foliage after adjusting the data for precipitation.

The greening (CO2 fertilization) of the planet, 1982-2010

(after Roy Spencer)

EPIC FAIL: 73 Climate Models vs. Observations for Tropical Tropospheric Temperature

June 4th, 2013 by Roy W. Spencer

The climate models often get criticised - and it is a valid criticism - that there is a lot of physics that we may not even have in the models, and that which we do have in may be inaccurate.

Hansen13-May16-UKParliamentQA.pdf

Myth 6 – That computer models are predictive tools

CONTEXT 4 – Computer GCMs

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Important Disclaimer

This report relates to climate change scenarios based on computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of the real processes that are not fully understood.

Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the QLD government for the accuracy of forecasts or predictions inferred from this report or for any person's interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this report.

----------------------------------------------------------------------On the back of the title page, in bold.

Walsh, K. et al. 2002 CSIRO Atmospheric Research

"Climate Change in Queensland Under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions"Final Report 1997-2002, 84 pp.

HOW NOW for policy?NEXT – scientific technique

CONTEXT 5 – the scope of the “problem”

Myth 7 – That cutting western CO2 emissions will make any measurable difference to future temperatures