Prof. Ronald B. Mitchell [email protected] Julia Butterfly Hill What problem did Hill want to fix? What was Hill’s solution to it? Was her solution

Prof. Ronald B. Mitchell [email protected]

Julia Butterfly Hill What problem did Hill want to fix? What was Hills solution to it? Was her solution effective / did it work? If so, what do you mean by effective? If you believe it was effective, would you do it? Are there other actions that would be more effective? Why do you think they are more effective?

In-Class Exercise Write Down Problem: one international environmental problem that you are concerned about Cause: what you think is the most important cause of that problem Solution: a policy you think could make a major contribution to fixing the problem

Class Summary Class goal: think more systematically about problems, causes, and solutions so you can make a more effective difference in the world Review Syllabus Review Assignment Packet (its long) Do plagiarism assignment on Blackboard for Thursday

Earth Time & Human Time If Earth were 100 years old, then Humans arrived 2 days ago Recorded history started 2 hours ago The industrial revolution started 2 minutes ago.

Different land use practices visible across country border, Mexico/Guatemala 1974 - 2000: Conversion of forest to agriculture Now country border can be seen even from space

Haitian Deforestation Source: NASA - Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio (Darrel Williams, Alex Kekesi, Stuart Snodgrass), 2002 (25 Sep). Haitian Deforestation. http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002600/a002640/index.html. Haiti Dominican Republic

Title Body text Deforestation: Rondonia, Brazil 1975 -Healthy natural vegetation 1986 -Fishbone pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields 2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover.

Disappearing temperate forests of Olympic Peninsula, United States 1974: Shows patchwork of purple and pink, indicating clear-cutting 2000: Evidence of good re-growth of trees in forest reserve areas

Wetlands Loss: US Everglades 1850 Source: Exploring the Environment Team. 2003 (23 January) Remote Sensing: Waterflow Wheeling Jesuit University, Center for Educational Technologies http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/everglades/FEremote2.html 1995

Wetlands Loss: Intentional Drainage in Iraq 1973 2000 Source: Kirby, Alex. 2001 (16 May) Mesopotamia's marshes 'set to vanish BBC News Online http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1332128.stm

Desertification: Aral Sea 1960-2000 Source: Ressl, Rainier. German Aerospace Center (DLR) 1999 (22 Feb). Chronology of the dessication of the Aral Sea. http://www.dfd.dlr.de/app/land/aralsee/chronology.html. Worlds 4 th largest body of freshwater: Volume down 60% Area down 50% Salinity up 100%

1973: The Sea level is dropping at the rate of 1m/year Dramatic changes in Dead Sea, Jordan Images show dramatic changes in the Dead sea over 30 years 2002: Notice the expansion of salt works, and near-complete closing off of the southern part by dry land

Changes due to Three Gorges Dam construction, China Changes due to the construction of dam 1987: Nature of the river and surrounding landscape before the dam 2004: The enormous dam is clearly visible

Title Body text The capital and largest city of the United Kingdom Area of 659 sq. mi. (1 706 sq. km.) Over 7 million residents. Population projected to approach 8 million by 2021. Urbanization: London, England

Title Body text Urbanization: Dhaka, Bangladesh 1977-2000: the capital of Bangladesh, has grown from a city of 2.5 million more than 10 million.

Title Body text Aquaculture Impact: Gulf of Fonseca,Honduras Over a period of 12 years, the images reveal how shrimp farms and ponds have mushroomed carpeting the landscape around the Gulf of Fonseca, Honduras, in blocks of blue and black shapes. Honduras is second only to Ecuador in the cultivation and export of shrimp from Latin America.

Title Body text Greening of a desert 1986 -A desert landscape 1991 -Irrigation begins 2000 -And transforms the desert 2004 Irrigation intensity increases Agriculture Impact: Al Isawiyah, Saudi Arabia

Title Body text 1973 -A small settlement 2000 -The landscape is now dramatically modified Luxury Impact? Las Vegas, United States

Oil Entering the Oceans Source: National Academy of Sciences Committee on Oil in the Sea. 2002. Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects Washington, DC: Ocean Studies Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Marine Board, Transportation Research Board, p. 33. Available at: http://books.nap.edu/books/0309084385/gifmid/41.gif

Decline in Large Fish Biomass (fish/100 hooks on Japanese longlines) 1964 1958 1980 1952 Source: Myers, Ransom A., and Boris Worm. 2003. Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature 423, 280-283. http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v423/n6937/full/nature01610_fs.html

Decline in Large Fish Biomass (fish/100 hooks on Japanese longlines) Source: Myers, Ransom A., and Boris Worm. 2003. Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature 423, 280-283. http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v423/n6937/full/nature01610_fs.html

Fish Disappearance Virtually all marine life other than jellyfish has disappeared from the Black Sea, because of hypoxia induced by discharges from the Danube, Dneiper, and Don Rivers (source: Woodward, 2000, Oceans End cited in Clark, 2006, World Fisheries)

Title Body text Ozone Depletion Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years, as observed by the satellite Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion.

Impacts Vary Across Countries

Indoor Air Pollution Exposure to indoor air pollution is one of the major contributing factors leading to acute respiratory infections which cause an estimated 4 million deaths of young children each year World Bank (1992, pp.52-53)

Healthy Life Expectancy By Country Source: Colin D Mathers, Ritu Sadana, Joshua A Salomon, Christopher JL Murray, and Alan D Lopez. 2000. "Estimates of DALE for 191 countries: methods and results." Global Programme on Evidence for Health Policy Working Paper No. 16 of the World Health Organization, June. http://w3.whosea.org/healthreport/pdf/paper16.pdf

Simple as Salt Iodine deficiency One-third of the worlds people dont get enough iodine from food and water Children of an iodine-deficient mother likely to have an IQ that is 10 to 15 points lower than it would otherwise be Adding iodine to salt costs 2 to 3 cents per person per year Source: Nicholas Kristof. Raising the Worlds I.Q. New York Times. December 4, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/opinion/04kristof.html

The Epidemic Scorecard DiseasePrevalenceDeathsNew Cases AIDS/HIV32 million3 mil/yr 300/hr5.5 million Diarrheal diseases (unsafe H2O) n/a2 mil/yr 200/hr2.7 billion Tuberculosis14 million2 mil/yr 200/hr8 million Hepatitis Bn/a1 mil/yr 100/hr20 million Malaria (mosquitoes) n/a1 mil/yr 100/hr400 million Measles (preventable) n/a900k/yr 90/hr30 million Denque fever (mosquitoes) n/a24k/yr 2/hr20 million Influenzan/a250k/yr 25/hr4 million Yellow fevern/a30k/yr 3/hr200,000 Source: Howard Markel, Stephen Doyle. 2003 (30 April). The Epidemic Scorecard. New York Times, A31 http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/opinion/030430_edt_MARK.pdf. http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/opinion/030430_edt_MARK.pdf

Climate Change

Brand new IPCC Report March 31, 2014 The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate change will also continue to produce surprises. The report identifies vulnerable people, industries, and ecosystems around the world. It finds that risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (people or assets in harms way) overlapping with hazards (triggering climate events or trends). Each of these three components can be a target for smart actions to decrease risk. We live in an era of man-made climate change, said Vicente Barros, Co-Chair of Working Group II. In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future. IPCC WGII Press release 3/31/2014 - http://ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg2/140330_pr_wgII_spm_en.pdf http://ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg2/140330_pr_wgII_spm_en.pdf

Variations of the Earth's Surface Temperature for Past 1000 Years Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, summary for policymakers (a report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3. At: http://www.ipcc.ch/present/cop65/johnhoughton.ppt

Variations of the Earth's Surface Temperature for Past 140 Years Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, summary for policymakers (a report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3.

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations from Mauna Loa Source: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2002. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Oak Ridge: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy.

Contributions of Human Emissions to Climate Change Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Fossil fuel use (57%) Deforestation, etc. (17%) Other (3%) Methane (CH 4 ) (14%) Nitrous oxide (N 2 0) (8%) Other gases (1%) Source: Global contribution of human-related greenhouse gas emissions to enhanced greenhouse gas effect since preindustrial times http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/international.html

Total Emissions (2007) of Top 20 CO2 Emitters Source: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. 2010. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html

Per Capita Emissions (2007) of Top 20 CO2 Emitters Source: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. 2010. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html

Average Global Temperatures Video of historical averages and future projections

Changes in sea ice extent September 1980: 7.8 million square kilometers Sept 1980 Alaska Siberia Greenland The Arctic sea ice cover Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Changes in sea ice extent September 2012: 3.4 million square kilometers Sept 2012 Alaska Siberia Greenland Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Changes in sea ice extent September 1980 Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Changes in sea ice extent Reduction from 1980 to 2012 Huge decrease in ice extent Slides courtesy of Chris Polashenski, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Stroeve et al. 2007

Calving of Ninnis Glacier, Antarctica 22 January 2000: Shows Ninnis Glacier Tongue soon after the initial calving 5 February 2002: Iceberg split into two sections and started moving away from Ninnis Glacier

Disappearing ice cap of Mt. Kilimanjaro Tanzania Africas highest mountain with a forest belt containing a rich diversity of ecosystems 1976: Glaciers covered most of the summit 2006: The glaciers had receded alarmingly

Upsala Glacier, Argentina http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm

Effects of Increased CO2 on Glaciers (Loss in Last 100 Years) Source: Gesellschaft fr kologische Forschung e.V. 2002. Das gletscherarchiv. http://www.gletscherarchiv.de/. Accessed on: 15 January 2003. Krnten, Austria

Effects of Warming: Earlier Spring Thaws

Does the Columbia Freeze Over Anymore? Colubmia Riv er froze over in: 1830, 1833, 1840, 1842, 1847, 1849(2x), 1856, 1875, 1862, 1868, 1884, 1885, 1888, 1890, 1891, 1894, 1896, 1907, 1909, 1916, 1919, 1930 * Picture: Hood River, Oregon, W. D. Rogers, 1/17/1907; Oregon Historical Society Photo OrHi 35431 (http://librarycatalog.ohs.org/)http://librarycatalog.ohs.org/ Columbia generally freezes up once in the winter from a trial in 1882 at http://books.google.com/books?id=wZA8AAAAIAAJ (p. 1393)http://books.google.com/books?id=wZA8AAAAIAAJ *Data on freezes compiled from: http://www.pacificcohistory.org/columbia.htm; http://historyink.com/results.cfm?keyword=Weather&searchfield=topics; and http://www.nwmapsco.com/ZybachB/Thesis/05-081_Chapter_3b.pdf (p. 86)http://www.pacificcohistory.org/columbia.htmhttp://historyink.com/results.cfm?keyword=Weather&searchfield=topicshttp://www.nwmapsco.com/ZybachB/Thesis/05-081_Chapter_3b.pdf

Effects of Increased CO2 on Ocean Creatures Scanning electron microscope pictures of coccolithophorids under different CO2 concentrations. a, b, c: at 300 ppmv and d, e, f at 780-850 ppmv. Note the difference in the coccolith structure (including distinct malformations) and in the degree of calcification of cells grown at normal and elevated CO2 levels. (Source: Riebesell, U, I Zondervan, B Rost, P Tortell, R Zeebe, and F Morel. 2000. Reduced calcification of marine plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2. Nature 407 (21 September), 364-367.) Low CO2 High CO2

Reverse Thermohaline Circulation?

How should we distinguish Important from less important problems Real from false causes of problems Effective from ineffective solutions

Documents

Prof. Ronald B. Mitchell [email protected] Julia Butterfly Hill What problem did Hill want to fix? What was Hill’s solution to it? Was her solution