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Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 1
Planning and Decision-Making
How do human factors influence the CIMIC process?
http://www.ideachampions.com/weblogs/decision-making-processes1.jpg
My background
1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster Social Science Center Berlin 2004 Ph.D. 2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy 2010 Regensburg University of Applied Science
1997 Scientific analyst for security organization 2003 IABG HF Team Program Manager Consultant
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 2
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 3
Take home messages
Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected.
Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving.
CI ≠ MI - SOP business. CIMIC needs a shared situational
awareness. CIMIC means bridging the cultural
differences.
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 4
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 6
More Psychology in Political Science Information processing “…is wide open to irrational,
nonrational intuitive, and affective influences, biases, and errors, especially in environments and issue-areas like international politics where uncertainty and complexity prevail.“(1)
„Ich halte die mangelnde Aufmerksamkeit der IB für diese Theorietradition, die manchmal bis zur totalen Abwehr reicht, für einen großen Fehler.“(2)
Situation factors: Time constraints, information constraints, ambiguity, familiarity,
accountability, risk, stress, dynamic vs. static-setting, interactive setting (3)
European Politics Summer Term 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 9
1(Vertzberger 1990:343) 2(Krell 2003:357) 3(Mintz&DeRouen Jr. 2010:26)
European Politics Summer Term 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 11
Bedarf Bedürfnis
Motivation
Absicht
Plan
Handlung
Absichtsbibliothek(Absichts-Skelette)
Planungsbibliothek(Plan-Skelette)
Sek. Bedarf Sek. Bedürfnis
Sek. Motivation
Teil- & Zwischenziele;"Universaloperatoren"
Erwartung
Erwartung
Auswahldruckhoch/ Kurzschluß
Planung
Absichtsgenerierung
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Zielbibliothek(Ziel-Schemata)
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Motivanreicherung
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Lernimplus(Erfolg/Misserfolg)
. .
Wahrnehmung
Wahrnehmung
Bewertung
Bewertung
Bewertung
Bewertung
Bewertung
Bewertung Bewertung
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Lernen (beiErfolg/Misserfolg)
Basis of the Modeling Approach: Theory of Human Action Organization (Dörner)
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 12
Intentions
Perception
(Protocol-)Memory
Competence
Emotions
Environment
Task / Problem
Group
Frictions
Time Pressure
Goal Elaboration
Information Gathering
Mental Modelling
Planning
Decision / Acting
Effect Control
(Self-)Reflection
Prognosis
Internal Factors External Factors
The Policy Cycle
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 14
(John 1998, Sabatier 1999, McCormick 2006, Richardson 2006, Hague & Harrop 2007)
Policy Cycle
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 15
Intentions, objectives, actions
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 16
SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion
Intentions, objectives, actions
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 17
SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion
Reliability Protection
Expectations / Scenarios
Competencies / Skills
Alliance / Coalition
Intentions, objectives, actions
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 18
SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion
Economic Welfare
Social Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support Building Coalition
Infrastructure Standards
Intentions, objectives, actions
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 19
SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion
Past / HistoryInstrumentality
Start SituationAvailable Operators / Plan
Goal SituationRemaining Time
Estimated Time
Economic Welfare
Social Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support Building Coalition
Infrastructure Standards
Intentions, objectives, actions
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 20
SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion
Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency
Past / HistoryInstrumentality
Start SituationAvailable Operators / Plan
Goal SituationRemaining Time
Estimated Time
Economic Welfare
Social Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support Building Coalition
Infrastructure Standards
Intentions, objectives, actions
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 21
Economic cooperation in a specific domain
Political cooperation in a specific domain
Military cooperation in a specific domain
SecuritySafety Certainty Power Cohesion
Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency
Past / HistoryInstrumentality
Start SituationAvailable Operators / Plan
Goal SituationRemaining Time
Estimated Time
Economic Welfare
Social Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support Building Coalition
Infrastructure Standards
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 22
Situation Awareness - Endsley
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 23
(Endsley 2003)
http://www.google.de/url?source=imgres&ct=img&q=http://images.wikia.com/psychology/images/6/61/Endsley-SA-model.jpg&sa=X&ei=RGvATc9Ljca0Buqy3PIO&ved=0CAQQ8wc4Aw&usg=AFQjCNEi4OkT4z0EeoC5fI3sd5oYutplGg
Common understanding
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 24
Expert Group1
Expert Group 2
Expert Group 3
Expert Group 5
Expert Group 4
+ + + + =
Shared understanding
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 25
Committee
Committee
Committee
Committee
Committee
+ + + + =
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 28
Logic of Failure (Dörner, Schaub et al.)
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 29
Goal Elaboration
Information Gathering
Mental Modelling
Planning
Decision / Acting
Effect Control
(Self-)Reflection
Prognosis
Thematic Vagabonding
Information Channelling
Reductive Hypothesis
Plan Optimism
Over-Dosage
Neglect
Lack of Lessons Learned
Linear Extrapolation
Group Think
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 33
ADecision makers Constitute a
Cohesive Group
B-1Structural Faults of Organization1.Insulation of the group2.Lack of tradition of imperial leadership3.Lack of norms requiring methodical procedures4.Homogeneity of members social background and ideologyetc.
B-2Provocative Situational Context1.High stress from external threats with low hope of a better solution than the leader’s2.Low self-esteem temporarily induced by:
1. Recent failures that make members’ inadequacies salient.
2. Excessive Difficulties on current decision-making tasks that lower each member’s sense of self-efficacy
3. Moral dilemmas: apparent lack of feasible alternatives except ones that violate ethical standards
etc.C
Symptoms of GroupthinkType I: Overestimating thegroup1. Illusion of invulnerability2. Belief in inherent morality of the group
Type II: Closed-mindedness1. Collective Rationalizations2. Stereotypes of out groupsType III: Pressures toward uniformity1. Self-censorship2. illusion of unanimanity3. Direct pressure on dissenters4. Self-appointed mind guards
DSymptoms of Defective
Decision-making
1. Gross omissions in survey of objectives2. Gross omission in surevey of
alternatives3. Poor information search4. Selective bias in processing information
at hand5. Failure to reconsinder originally rejected
alternatives6. Failure to examine some major costs
and risks of preferred choice7. Failure to work out detailed
implementation, monitoring and contingency plans
ELow Probability of Successful
Outcome
Concurrence-Seeking
(Janis 1989:59)
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 34
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 38
Badke-Schaub / Frankenberg
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 39Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Cooperative solution search
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 40Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Deficient goal analysis
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 41Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Successful solution search
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 42Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Successful solution decision
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 43Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Deficient solution decision
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 44Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Way ahead
What is Human Factor? Cognitive psychology: action organization! Intentions, objectives, and actions?! Situational awareness – common and
shared?! Logic of failure…and more. Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 Empirical Findings – Design Groups Conclusion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 45
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 46
Take home messages
Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected.
Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving.
CI ≠ MI - SOP business. CIMIC needs a shared situational
awareness. CIMIC means bridging the cultural
differences.
Questions / Discussion
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 47
http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/left_right.jpg
CI / CS type of reaction (Thomas)
Ignorant Universalist Man of action Potenzializer
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 49
Phases of cultural shock (Oberg 1960)
Honeymoon Crisis Recovery Adjustment
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 50
„Intercultural competence requires an ability to move beyond sterotypes and to respond to the individual.“ (Lustig / Koester 2003, S. 154)
MS Summer School - June 2011Prof. Dr. Bresinsky 51