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The impact of globalThe impact of global
production chains on trade:pTowards a measure of
i i l d i l dd dinternational trade in value added
Christophe Degain, WTO
Global production chains and world trade – Ins and outs
International consumer demandInternational consumer demand
Emergence of “Trade in tasks”:
Lower applied tariffs and trade policy incentives
• Predominance of trade in intermediate goods
• Development of intra‐firm
Development of infrastructure and technological progress
Global production chains and world trade
evelopment of intra firmtrade
• Increase of processing trade
Export processing zones
Outsourcing and offshoring strategies and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Need for new statistical
measures of international trade
Asian economies have relatively low applied tariffs on imports (especially on semi‐processed goods)( p y p g )
Source: WTO
Export processing zones (EPZs) account for about 20 % of total merchandise exports of developing economies p p g
Sources: ILO and WTO
(2006 or most recent year)economies with EPZs
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)World and regional FDI inflows (billions of US$)g ( $)
Source: UNCTAD
Intermediate goods dominate world non‐fuel merchandise exports$
ons of U
S$Billio
Source: UNSD & WTO
2009 value
Intermediate goods dominate world non‐fuel merchandise exports
Key facts on Asia trade in intermediate goods …
• Asia’s share in world exports of intermediate goods increases : 37 % in 2010i d i d i• Intra‐Asian trade is predominant
• Asia imports more intermediate goods than it exports• Intermediate goods traded by Asian economies are more and more
sophisticated • More and more concentrated trade on few components
Confirming that:… Confirming that:
• Asia is the “World manufacturer”• Asian supply chains boost the regional marketsAsian supply chains boost the regional markets• Asian economies present a high degree of industrial specialization
Fragmentation of production: the example of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Source: Meng & Miroudot
Towards a new measure of international tradeTowards a new measure of international trade
• Traditional statistics present some biases:
– Multiple counting of trade flows in intermediate goods and services
– Difficult attribution of the country of origin of an imported product
• Measuring trade in value added terms allows:
– To circumvent the biases observed with traditional statistics
– To take into account the specificity of trade occurring between the different actors of a production chain
Some benefits of trade in value added
A b tt l ti f th t l t ib ti f• A better evaluation of the actual contribution of international trade to an economy (incl. growth, development, employment, environment)( g p p y )
• To highlight the interdependency of economies, and the counter productive effects of protectionist measures oncounter‐productive effects of protectionist measures on economies and enterprises they are supposed to protect
• Better evaluation of the contribution of the services sector on trade
• To provide a more realistic evaluation of bilateral trade balances and regional trade
Computers and electronic equipmentexports and their domestic and imported contentsexports and their domestic and imported contents
(billions of US$ and percentage)
Source: WTO, based on IDE‐JETRO Asian Input‐Output tables
2009 US trade balance in iPhones (millions of US$)( $)
Source: Meng and Miroudot, based on Xing and Detert (2010)
United States‐China trade balanceTraditional vs VA measure (billions of US$)Traditional vs VA measure (billions of US$)
Sources: UN Comtrade Database, IDE‐JETRO AIO tables and WTO estimates
Thank you – Dômo Arigatô
More info on the WTO “Made in the World” initiative (MIWI) at http://www.wto.org/miwi