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CAES: 30 th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 Peer Reviewed “Agribusiness Essential for Food Security: Empowering Youth and Enhancing Quality Products” Proceedings of the 30 th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference 30 th June – 6 th July, 2013, Port of Spain, Trinidad Copyrighted by the Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior consent of the publisher. ISBN: 978-976-634-013-1 Main Title: Proceedings of the 30 th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference Publisher: The Caribbean Agro-Economic Society (CAES) Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension The University of the West Indies St Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Printed in: St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Website www.caestt.com E-mail [email protected] Publication Date:

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Page 1: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

“Agribusiness Essential for Food Security: Empowering Youth and Enhancing Quality Products”

Proceedings of the

30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference

30th June – 6th July, 2013, Port of Spain, Trinidad

Copyrighted by the Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior consent of the publisher.

ISBN: 978-976-634-013-1

Main Title: Proceedings of the 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference

Publisher: The Caribbean Agro-Economic Society (CAES)

Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension

The University of the West Indies

St Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago

Printed in: St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago

Website www.caestt.com

E-mail [email protected]

Publication Date:

Page 2: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 129

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

List of Abstracts

Page 3: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 130

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Characterization of Yam Business Diversity in Guadeloupe (FWI)

Carla Barlagne, Jean-Marc Blazy, Camille Le Roux, Jean-Louis Diman

and Harry Ozier-Lafontaine

Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Centre Antilles-Guyane, Unité de Recherches sur les Agrosystèmes Tropicaux (UR-1321) - ASTRO.

Abstract In 2009, yam production was 50 million tons all over the world (FAO, 2009). It is the main food crop in Guadeloupe and the fourth crop after sugar cane, banana and melon (Chambre d’Agriculture, 2009), all threes targeting the European market in majority. One priority and objective of agronomic research in the French Antilles is to foster the development of agrifood chains. Next to the well-structured and dominating crops that are sugar and banana, yam production appears to be an informal and still not very well known sector. The objective of the present study is to characterize yam marketing chains in Guadeloupe. Yam producers and distributors were inquired for that purpose. The actors of yam marketing are numerous and the diversity of the marketing chains is high. Whereas imported yam is mostly sold via a structured network, locally produced yam is sold via informal networks in which the rules of coordination between actors are based on truthfulness and moral contracts. Marketing chains are contrasted and imply different types of exchange. For example in the direct sale chain, yam is sold directly from the producer to the consumer whereas yam that is sold in the supermarkets goes through a more important number of intermediaries. The different types of market retailing channels imply different requirements and constraints that influence farmers’ choices of commercialization. These reveal farmers’ strategies. Some producers rely mainly on yam for their income and prefer to maximize their profit by selling their production on farms or markets. For others, growing yam is only one production alongside their main crop and they prefer to sell it quickly thanks to intermediaries. Our results suggest that a way to develop yam agrifood chain is by improving the matching between supply and demand. Therefore, it is necessary to better know consumers’ expectations and to study the determinants of their buying choices for yam (warranty of origin and way of production, taste criteria, prices). Keywords: Yam, commercialization, strategies of actors, hurdles to development, leeway of action

Page 4: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 131

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Economic Analysis of Bell Pepper Production in the Greenhouse

César Martinez

Researcher at the Dominican Research Institute for Agriculture and Forestry.

IDIAF Dominican Republic

Abstract In Dominican Republic agro-plasticulture or protective production system is a high potential activity in which one can generate great income, given the high demand for vegetables in the American and European markets. Since the inception of this method of production greenhouses are mainly built of metalic structures of 4,800m2 with thermal mesh and the use of beds and substrates. But, a lot of producers do not have the financial requirements for the investment they have adopted the technology according to their conditions. They have constructed wooden structures with varying surfaces using substrate bed or the own soil. However, for these production systems there are no existing precise information on profitability. With the objective of getting to know the profitability of these, three metal greenhouses of 4,800m2 (investment of RD$ 3,000,000) and three wooden of 3,069 m2 (investment of RD 7,000,000 and RD$ 3,000,000), with pimento production in San José de Ocoa, Constanza and Jarabacoa. Production data, cost, and sales were taken weekly for a year finishing two production cycles. The analysis was done averaging data for each type of greenhouse. The indicators for economic evaluation used were: Net Present Value (NPV), lnternal Rate of Return (IRR), and the relation of Net benefit-investment (N/K). Over a period of 20 years the results for the metal greenhouses were: NPV= 1,487,564, IRR= 9%, N/K= 1.30. These results suggest that the production of these greenhouses is economically viable, even though, with an increase in the interest rates or price the risk exist that they no longer be profitable for the long term. In the wooden greenhouses the results for 10 years were: NPV= 3,771,000, IRR= 64% and the N/K= 4.10, being more profitable than the metal greenhouses. Keywords: Greenhouse, profitability, cost, vegetables, economic indicators.

Page 5: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 132

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Agricultural Growth, Sector Linkages and Trade Liberalization in the Caribbean and Latin America

Curtis M. Jolly1 and Carel M. Ligeon2

1Chair Alumni Professor and the Charles W. Barkley Endowed Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, College of Agriculture, Auburn University and the

Alabama Experiment Station, Auburn. Alabama 36849. 2Chair and Professor of the Department of Economics and Finance, Auburn University, Montgomery,

Alabama, USA.

Abstract Agriculture has long been considered the backbone of the economies of Caribbean and the Central American countries. Agriculture contributes significantly to the economies of most of these countries. However, the sector has experienced a lag in growth since 1961. Research has shown that the poor growth rate is related to low levels of modern inputs and international economic shocks like the rise in oil prices and that of related chemical inputs. However, few studies have shown that the slow growth can be attributed to poor market linkages, trade liberalization and the interaction between the agricultural and other sectors of the economy. In this study, we examined the relationship between agricultural sector growth, land and labor productivity, trade liberalization and the relationship between agriculture value added and the other sectors of the economy. We used time series and cross sectional data for 12 Caribbean and 9 Central American countries from 1961 to 2011 to evaluate the factors influencing agricultural growth in the region. General Least Squares, Maximum Likelihood and Ordinary Least Squares Fixed and Random Effects models were developed. The most appropriate model, the Maximum Likelihood Random Effects, generated slightly improved results over the other models. The area planted in citrus crops, fiber, fruit and vegetable crops per unit of labor used influenced agricultural growth rate. The use of male and female labor also affected agricultural growth. The interaction between the manufacturing and service sectors with agriculture value added influenced agricultural sector growth. The models show a change in input use before 1996 and after 1996 when the World Trade Organization (WTO) effects were felt in the region. The information sends a signal to policy makers that they should pay particular attention to the contributions of the various factors of production and the interaction between sectors to regional agricultural growth.

Page 6: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 133

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

The Use of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Cost Benefit Analysis for Evaluating Profitability and Sustainability

of Cocoa Production in Trinidad

Elroy Wilson1 and Hazel Patterson-Andrews2

1Graduate Student and 2Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture

The University of the West Indies, St Augustine

Abstract The cocoa industry has played a fundamental role in the economy of Trinidad and Tobago since it was established in the 19th century. The industry has contributed to the country’s economy by providing employment and development for rural households. Trinidad is known for its extensive research in cocoa and is acknowledged internationally as a holder of the world’s most valuable cocoa gene bank. The island is recognized by the International Cocoa Organisation as one of the 17 producers of fine flavour trinitario cocoa and receives a premium price on the international market. Though the country is a producer of fine flavour cocoa production has declined from 7,030 tonnes in 1961 to 700 tonnes in 2010 (FAO, 2012). The number of active farmers has also declined from 5724 farmers in 1982 to 1214 farmers in 1999 (Pemberton and Ragbir 2005). The industry has been affected by pest and disease; reduce labour supply and high cost of production within recent times. Due to the continuous decline within the Trinidad and Tobago cocoa industry, the twin island state has been unable to produce the amount for cocoa that was once produced for export on the international market. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as a multi-criterion decision making tool to prioritize the problems that are affecting the cocoa industry in order of their importance to the farmers in Trinidad. The AHP is complemented with the use of the Cost Benefit Analysis which shows the level of benefits to be still derived from cocoa production in Trinidad. The results of this research prioritize the major constraints that prevail in the cocoa industry thus contributing to the decline of the cocoa industry in Trinidad and Tobago. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, cost benefit analysis, sustainability, profitability

Page 7: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 134

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Financial Aspects of Protected Agricultural Systems in the Caribbean Region: The Case of Sweet Peppers in

Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

Govind Seepersad1, Ardon Iton2, Compton Paul3 and Janette Lawrence4

1Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies

2, 3, 4Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI)

Abstract Given the challenges with food security, shortfalls in vegetable production and the increasing level of the food import bill in the Caribbean region, there is need to induce new technologies to field operations. Focusing on the vegetable sector, efforts are being made to enhance field production of sweet peppers by the introduction of Protected Agricultural (PA) systems across the Caribbean Region. The rate of adoption has been varied, with the protected agricultural technology varying widely from basic plastic covered structures to highly technologically advanced operations. This study assessed the performance of sweet pepper production in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Performance parameters were compared between protected production systems and open field operations. In the process, a number of the problems encountered were highlighted and the performance of the operations was assessed. The study found that open field operations continue to out-perform PA systems, both in terms of agronomic yields as well as production costs. Keywords: Protected Agriculture, open field systems, cost of production

Page 8: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 135

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

An Assessment of the International Cost Price Competitiveness of Tomato Produced under Various

Agronomic Models in the Caribbean Region

Govind Seepersad1, Compton Paul2, Janette Lawrence3, Ardon Iton4 and Nkosi Felix5

1Lecturer and 5Graduate Student, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies

2,3,4Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI)

Abstract In the Caribbean, tomato imports have been increasing to meet shortfalls in production. At the same time, the majority of farmers continue to use rain fed and open field production systems. Within recent years, there has been an increasing interest in adoption of various types of protected agricultural (PA) structures to reduce the high vulnerability to adverse weather conditions. The new production systems have the potential to stabilize tomato yields throughout the year and thus reduce price variability. This study assessed the international cost competitiveness of tomatoes grown under the protected agriculture system and open field compared to tomatoes imported from the USA. The Economic Cost Competitiveness Coefficient was then utilized to identify which of production models would better help policy makers, agronomists and farmers in the promotion and adoption of the PA technology in the Caribbean Region. Keywords: Production systems, protected agriculture, economic cost competitiveness coefficient.

Page 9: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 136

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

An Agricultural Perspective on Land Tenure Systems Development in Hazard Vulnerability Reduction in St.

Vincent & the Grenadines

Jamal A. Browne

The Department of Geomatics Engineering & Land Management, UWI, St. Augustine

Abstract The existing land tenure arrangements for St. Vincent & the Grenadines do not sufficiently support comprehensive disaster management. This is particularly due to the large gaps in the national spatial data infrastructure, and the inherent non-responsiveness of the deeds registration system to the current socio-economic demands of society. According to the Hurricane Tomas Emergency Recovery Project Environmental Assessment of June 2011 in St. Vincent & the Grenadines, the impact of Hurricane Tomas in October 2010 was significant enough for the government to declare disaster areas within the northern section of the mainland. Given the geographical concentration of the agricultural sector in the northern part of the island, the most significant economic impact was felt in that sector. Losses were estimated at US$25 million, with the banana industry recording the most significant losses. The core objective of this study is to prove that where social tenures are recorded, recognized, and respected, there is a greater likelihood of personal investments in mitigation and reconstruction. Other objectives include: To clearly identify and outline the challenges of vulnerability reduction which stem from the inherent weaknesses of the deeds registration system and other proposed systems of land registration, and to show that the range of property systems in St. Vincent & the Grenadines demand the use of pro-poor land tools. The methodology employed in this study was predominantly quantitative. It incorporated structured interviews with 110 household heads in the rural villages of Colonaire, Langley Park and Sandy Bay, January 5 – 10, 2013. It also incorporated the use of maultiple statistical analyses towards hypothesis testing. Preliminary results indicate that one's perception of tenure security is indeed a factor affecting hazard vulnerability, while the possession of a deed does not necessarily result in vulnerability reduction. Keywords: Agricultural Sector, Comprehensive Disaster Management, Land Tenure Systems, Pro-poor Land Tools, Unsafe Conditions, Vulnerability.

Page 10: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 137

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

The Impact of Hurricane Ivan on the Cocoa Industry in Grenada

Jason Felix1, Govind Seepersad2, Andrew Hastick3 and Nkosi Felix4

1, 4Students and 2Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies

3Grenada Cocoa Association

Abstract Over the years, the Caribbean has been struck with numerous hurricanes, one of the most devastating being Hurricane Ivan. Cocoa, nutmeg and banana are the most important crops and represents a major share of Grenada’s agriculture sector’s GDP. This study examined the Impact of hurricane Ivan on the Cocoa industry in Grenada. More specifically, given the importance of this industry, the study focused primarily on the economic and social impact of hurricane Ivan to the cocoa farmers in Grenada. Point score analysis was used to develop an objective (vs. subjective) methodological framework to help quantify the qualitative responses made in the survey, while the chi-square analysis was used to explore relationship between two categorical variables. The study found that, hurricane Ivan almost devastated the entire cocoa industry in Grenada and resulted in a number of social and economic problems such as homelessness, poverty, unemployment and Inflation and among citizen and specifically cocoa farmers. The study provided recommendations for the implementation and adherence of a cohesive disaster management plan in an effort to minimize the impacts of future disasters. In addition, there should be strict adherence to the country’s building code, the establishment of rigorous windbreaks around cocoa plantation to circumvent the loss of farm income. Keywords: Hurricane, cocoa, point score analysis, chi-square

Page 11: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 138

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Is Agroecology Improvement An Opportunity to Enhance Short Marketing Networks or Proximity and Direct Marketing Increase, A Chance for an Agroecological

Development?

Jean-Louis Diman, Carla Barlagne and Harry Ozier-Lafontaine

Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Centre Antilles-Guyane, Unité de Recherches sur les Agrosystèmes Tropicaux (UR-1321) - ASTRO.

Abstract Health and environmental limitations posed today by conventional farming systems lead many farmers around the world to move towards systems in which they reduce the use of chemicals and increase the use of agroecological techniques. At the same time, environmental and public health scandals urge an increasing number of consumers worldwide to demand more transparency about the sanitary quality of the agricultural food products they purchase. Our contribution is to analyze the actors’ choices that generate those two simultaneous situations. Our analysis is based upon various recent studies carried out in the Caribbean and around the world. The recent development of short marketing chains probably responds to the need for market and quality differentiation for agroecological, or organic food products. On the opposite, the development of agroecological production also responds to a request from the civil society in terms of traceability of the quality or the safety of agricultural foodstuffs. However, if some farmers are specialized in organic agriculture today, many of those present in short marketing chains also produce according to conventional methods. Conversely, if nowadays more consumers associate quality and safety to proximity with producers, very few of them are purchasing exclusively in short marketing chains. We are in a transition period. As can be seen, actors’ choices are diverse, and they more likely obey to sustainability criteria included in each individual’s decision-making system than to societal aspirations. In a context of a more and more globalized and artificialized economy, giving the agroecological production the opportunity to be sold via short marketing networks seems to be a sustainable alternative to the failures and excesses of the global marketing system for agricultural foodstuffs. Keywords: Agroecology, short marketing networks, agricultural foodstuffs, sustainability, farming systems.

Page 12: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 139

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Opportunities in Open Agricultural Data for Food Security

Kim Mallalieu

Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of the West Indies

Abstract The compelling threats to food security that have attracted considerable global response, motivate new models for agricultural production, distribution and business. Open data, that is to say data that is made available for public use in open formats for humans and machines to access in ways that are consistent with the principles of privacy, holds considerable potential to transform agri-business and business intelligence. Open data also holds considerable potential to disrupt the agricultural ecosystem through the introduction of new agents and new ways of work for existing agents. At the same time, there is growing interest around the world, including the Caribbean, in open data as the focal point for innovations in Internet and mobile phone applications. This paper scans global developments in the area of open data for food security as well as the emerging open data movement in the Caribbean as the backdrop for identifying key opportunities, challenges and recommendations. It emphasizes the need for a framework for collaboration and interaction between the multiple agents and disciplines in the agricultural ecosystem that are intrinsic to the proposition of Caribbean open data innovation for food security. It also emphasizes the opportunities for, and profits to be gained from, the development of regional capacity in purpose-driven innovation, development and research.

Keywords: Open agricultural data; mobile innovation.

Page 13: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 140

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

The Supply Response of Cocoa Farmers in Trinidad and Tobago

Niko Howai1 and Carlisle A. Pemberton2

1Graduate Student and 2Professor of Agricultural Economics

Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Faculty of Food and Agriculture

The University of the West Indies, St Augustine

Abstract A major problem that has faced the cocoa industry in Trinidad and Tobago has been a large fall in cocoa beans exported, from approximately 6,213 tonnes in 1970 to 517 tonnes in 2009, despite continuous rises in price over the same period. This research paper presents an analysis of the supply response of the cocoa farmers to prices and other variables. The analysis utilized a modified Nerlovian model (logarithmic form) after statistical tests were conducted to establish the stationarity of the time series data over the years 1970-2009. Other statistical test results determined that the regression model met the classical assumptions of OLS. The regression results indicate a short-run price elasticity of supply of 0.30 and a long run price elasticity of supply at 0.51. Other variables which significantly determined the supply of cocoa were the dry season rainfall lagged one year, as well as the lagged wet season rainfall and the exchange rate of the Trinidad & Tobago dollar. Based on these results, recommendations were suggested with regards to development and expansion of cocoa output in Trinidad and Tobago, which included the long term benefits of increasing the price of cocoa to farmers and assisting farmers to deal with the negative effects of above average rainfall on storage and disease incidence of this crop, through extension advice and infrastructural modifications. Keywords: Elasticity; unit root; cocoa; Nerlovian model; supply response

Page 14: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 141

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

The Market Information Delivery: Determination of the Media and the Frequency Preferred by Crop Farmers in

Trinidad and Tobago

Nkosi Felix1, Govind Seepersad2 and Ardon Iton3

1Graduate Student and 2Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies

3Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI)

Abstracts Agricultural Market information provides farmers with vital data which can improve their competitiveness, productivity and ultimately improve food and nutritional security in a country. Various worldwide agricultural market information systems provide a wide range of information to its users, but focuses on the delivery methods. Delivery methods increase in importance in Asian and Sub-African countries where many constraints exist, such as distance to market, access to mobile services and the availability of electricity. Although Trinidad and Tobago has an abundance of energy resources, information media and mobile networks, farmers could still be disadvantaged in the method used to disseminate market information. In addition, receiving market information at a frequency unsuitable to its users decreases the effectiveness of such information. Currently, domestic crop wholesale market prices are provided daily and monthly, via the internet and short message services (SMS), but the use among farmers have been shown to be approximately 50%. Therefore, this study sought to identify the media preferred by farmers and the frequency at which this information should be delivered. The log-linear model was used to identify if any significant relationships existed between market information that was viewed important, the media preferred, and the frequency of delivery. The study found that print media was most preferred among crop farmers and information should be delivered on a daily basis. It should be noted that the media and frequency differed according to the type of information farmers required. The results of the study can guide policy makers in the development of a more effective market information system. Keywords: Media, agricultural market information, log-linear, frequency.

Page 15: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 142

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Food Security in a Small Petroleum Exporting Economy, a Log Wave Perspective 1956-2013

Roger Hosein and Elizabeth Ince

Department of Economics, The University of the West Indies

Abstract During the 1970s the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) economy experienced an oil boom because of increases in the level and production of crude oil and in the price each barrel of crude oil fetched on the international market. In the late 1990s to 2008, the T&T economy has benefited from another hydrocarbon boom. This paper traces the trends in export agriculture, sugar and domestic agriculture during the first and second oil booms and the recession that followed each one. Using the falling share of labour employed in a sector as a reflection of de-agriculturalization, the analysis reveals that during the first oil boom all three components of the agricultural sector were de-agriculturalised although in the period until 1993 these same sectors showed clear signs of re-agriculturalization. During the second oil boom these agricultural subsectors were again de-agriculturalised, although in the case of domestic agriculture output per employed worker increased. The paper argues that given the likelihood of further hydrocarbon driven growth, the food security issue requires that efforts be made to preserve the output level of the domestic agricultural sector.

Page 16: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 143

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

The Role of Intra Industry Trade in CARICOM’s Agriculture Trade: Evidence from a Gravity Model

Roger Hosein and Ranita Seecharan

Department of Economics, The University of the West Indies

Abstract This paper examines the pattern of CARICOM’s intra industry trade (IIT) in the agriculture sector by employing a gravity model approach. The gravity model is applied to examine whether intra industry trade is a major factor motivating trade volume in the agriculture sector within the CARICOM region. Our study applies a static panel approach in our estimations of twelve intra-regional trading partners for the period 1999-2010. Both industry specific and country specific characteristics are utilized as explanatory variables whilst IIT as measured by the Grubel Lloyd index is used as the dependent variable. Preliminary results indicate low and declining IIT trends in most cases. This paper therefore proposes a strategy of agro-tourism inter alia as a means of boosting IIT in CARICOM’s agriculture trade. Keywords: Gravity model, intra industry trade, agriculture, agro-tourism.

Page 17: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 144

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Methods for Evaluating the Dynamic Relationship between the Energy Sector and the Agricultural

Economy: Is there Evidence of the Dutch Disease in Trinidad and Tobago?

Scott Mahadeo1, Sharon D. Hutchinson2 and Hazel Patterson-Andrews3

MPhil Student and 2,3Lecturers in Agricultural Economics,

Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Faculty of Food and Agriculture

The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine

Abstract Essentially, the Dutch Disease characterises the effects that a booming tradable commodity has on the traditional sectors of the economy. This paper has two principal objectives. The first is to convey technical approaches for diagnosing the Dutch Disease. The second intent of this study is to establish and exhibit a method appropriate for estimating the Dutch Disease in Trinidad and Tobago, a small open hydrocarbon-rich twin-island Republic of the Caribbean. The paper commences by introducing the theoretical dynamics of the Dutch Disease as well as some stylised facts on the Trinidad and Tobago economy, a potential candidate for this syndrome. Subsequently, the literature review considers various methods applied in the literature for detecting the presence of the Dutch Disease in oil-exporting economies. Following this, using time series econometrics, the research methodology describes an original technique devised for evaluating the impact that the energy sector has had on the traditional sectors of the economy. Consequently, this new approach is applied to screen the Trinidad and Tobago macroeconomy for the Dutch Disease. The results of this estimation procedure would indicate whether or not the energy sector can explain the fluctuations in the vital signs of the agricultural economy i.e. agricultural output and employment. Keywords: Dutch disease; energy sector; agricultural output; agricultural employment; impulse response function; forecast-error variance decomposition.

Page 18: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

List of abstracts 145

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Considering the Impact of Climate Change on the Production of Selected Agricultural Crops in

Trinidad and Tobago

Sharon Hutchinson1 and Scott Mahadeo2

Lecturer and 2MPhil Student, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture

The University of the West Indies, St Augustine Campus

Abstract Climate change continues to be a concern for the future of agrarian economy especially as it poses potential risks to food security and agribusiness. This study employs time series forecasting techniques based on historical observations of various major crops for Trinidad and Tobago, to project ex-ante crop production estimates for 2008 to 2060. A vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to estimate the relationship between climate change and the various crops. Furthermore, the variables used for conveying climate change in this model are temperature and precipitation. Hence, such a model allows us to shock various crop production variables to increases in both temperature and rainfall, using impulse response analysis. From the forecast –error variance decomposition, we are able to deduce the extent to which the variations in crop production are explained by the climatic variables. Finally, using granger causality, we check to see if the climate variables precede the changes in crop production. Keywords: Climate Change; forecasting crop production; VAR; Granger Causality.

Page 19: Proceedings of the 30 West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference June July, 2013, Port of Spain… · List of abstracts 132 CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference,

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CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Willingness to Pay of Aripo Residents for Improved Watershed Management

Simone Phillip1, Carlisle A. Pemberton2 and Hazel Patterson-Andrews3

1MSc Student, 2Professor of Agricultural Economics and 3Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture

The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine

Abstract This study identified the ecosystem services offered by the Aripo Watershed to the residents of the Heights of Aripo village and by extension the country of Trinidad. In addition, as part of the development of the integrated watershed management plan, this study explored the likely conduct of the residents in conservation of the Aripo watershed. The main objectives of this study were to assess residents’ perception of the quality of water in the Aripo River; then to determine residents’ willingness-to-pay for the preservation of the Aripo watershed. Finally, the study sought to identify the socio-economic factors influencing residents’ willingness-to-pay for preserving the Aripo watershed. It was hypothesized that the socio-economic factors: age, gender, income, whether the respondent was the head of the household, household size and the level of education would determine the amount the residents were willing to pay. A contingent valuation survey was utilized to measure residents’ willingness to pay and the Heckit sample selection regression model was used to determine significant socio-economic factors. In the study, the residents were concerned about the quality of the water in the Aripo River, since it is being affected by agricultural activities. Most residents were willing to pay for watershed conservation. Age, gender and whether the respondent was the head of the household were highly significant in affecting the decision to pay for watershed conservation. On the other hand age was highly significant, while income and gender were weakly significant in determining the amount that residents were willing to pay. Younger persons, males, and higher income individuals were willing to pay more towards environmental conservation. These results could be useful in the implementation of the integrated watershed management plan, as they show the demographic profile, who may be more willing to engage in conservation efforts. Keywords: Watershed management planning, contingent valuation method, Heckit Model.

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List of abstracts 147

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

The Potential Impacts of an Invasive Alien Species on Fisheries: The Case of the Lionfish (Pterois volitans and

Pterois miles) in Jamaica

Stephan Moonsammy1, Govind Seepersad2 and Dayne Buddo3

1Graduate Student and 2Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine,

3Marine Invasive Species Lab, Discovery Bay Field Station, The University of the West Indies, Mona

Abstract Terrestrial and aquatic invasive species are affecting crop and livestock production, fisheries, aquaculture, apiculture and agro-biodiversity. IAS can affect food production in two ways, either by directly consuming the food produced or indirectly affecting the food produced by influencing a change in the food’s production process. Marine Invasive Alien Species (IAS) such as the Lionfish can potentially eradicate 79% of the fish stock in reef habitats. In the Caribbean, given the fragile marine ecosystems as well as the importance of these environmental assets to the Region’s economic well-being a marine IAS is a particular threat to the livelihoods of Small Island Development States (SIDS) like Jamaica. The study proposes that the potential cost to the fisheries sector in Jamaica caused by the Lionfish exceeds 79% of the total landing value for the country within a year. This study focused on the dense reef habitats in the North-West Coastal areas of Jamaica, The approach of this paper was to identify the direct impact of the Lionfish invasion on the marine biodiversity in order to cost the potential impacts. Using data from secondary sources, the potential costs of the direct impacts was analysed using a combination of simulation and forecasting. The results showed that the Lionfish can potentially consume a biomass costing approximately $28 million US annually. This value exceeds the 79% landing value in Jamaica. Keywords: Invasive Alien Species, Lionfish, potential impacts

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List of abstracts 148

CAES: 30th West Indies Agricultural Economics Conference, Trinidad, July 2013 – Peer Reviewed

Environmental Risk Mapping for Farmers in Caroni Basin Trinidad

Treasure Alcindor1, Carlisle A. Pemberton2 and Hazel Patterson-Andrews3

1Graduate Student, 2Professor of Agricultural Economics and 3Lecturer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension

Faculty of Food and Agriculture The University of the West Indies, St Augustine

Abstract This study was undertaken to support the project entitled “Strengthening the Caribbean Scientific Community in Natural Resources Management and Developing Integrated Watershed Management” (CariWatNet). Specifically, the research aids in the development of a watershed management plan for the Caroni watershed. The main objective of the project is to map the environmental risk and ascertain the risk mitigation strategies that farmers face in Caroni. The report presents findings on the varying risks/hazards and risk mitigation strategies for farmers in the Caroni Basin, Trinidad. A logistic regression is used to analyse the causes that lead farmers to mitigate risk. Maps of the risk experienced by farmers are generated using ESRI Arc map for each village within the sample area of Caroni. The study found that farmers mainly encountered environmental problems such as drought, flooding, pests and diseases, yield reduction and praedial larceny. Moreover, this study found that farmers within the same area or community suffered the same types of risk which was represented spatially. Also, the strategies employed to combat these risks were also similar within communities. Notably, just over 60% of farmers opted to do nothing. Other types of risk management practices exist but most did not correspond to any particular type of risk, but were general customary measures employed by farmers such as higher security and spray chemicals among others. The report also discusses whether the type of risk differed for farmers as they operate closer to or further away from the Caroni River. Keywords: Risk, risk mitigation, logistic regression, spatial analysis