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7/25/2019 Problems With CEOC Bankruptcy Plan
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UNITE HERE! GAMING RESEARCH
Problems with CEOC Bankruptcy Plan
Executive Summary
This report examines the proposed Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
reorganization of Caesars Entertainment Operating Company (CEOC)
and finds it wanting. The current plan calls for the separation of the
company into a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) called PropCo and
an operating company, called OpCo.
We examine both PropCo and OpCo and find that:
When compared with other triple net REITs, Caesars’ PropCo will
have a high debt ratio and a lower interest coverage ratio, making itdifficult for the company to expand.
PropCo will have only one tenant, which is highly unusual for a
public REIT. Portfolio diversity is a commonly understood safeguard
against debilitating revenue declines resulting from downturns in a
single industry or the flagging financial fortunes of a single tenant.
To attract investors, REITs must grow by acquiring more
properties. There are relatively few acquisition targets in the highly-
regulated gaming industry. Those few opportunities that might arise,
will no doubt attract many buyers – including the two other gamingREITs and scores of other already-licensed casino owners – who will
have less debt than Caesars Propco and more firepower in a bidding
contest.
For OpCo, we find that the proposed fixed costs (rent + interest
payments) will be more than 70% of last year’s EBITDA(R).
We believe that EBITDA is likely to decline in coming years as the
short-term effects of cutting marketing and expenses result in reduced
revenue.
Despite CEOC’s predictions of revenue growth in all of theirmarkets, in fact, revenue declines at CEOC’s properties averaged 37%
between 2007 and 2015.
Given Caesars’ history of breaking guarantees, creditors should be
wary of Caesars guarantee of OpCo’s rent.
June 6, 2016
Ben Begleiter
1014 Atlantic Ave
Atlantic City, NJ 08401
(609) 344-5400 x 111
UNITE HERE! is the
hospitality workers union
that represents workers in
the gaming industry
across the country.
The Research Departmentprovides research on the
gaming industry from the
perspective of those who
work in the industry.
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Section I: The Problems with PropCo
A.
PropCo will be saddled with high debt.
The proposed Caesars PropCo will start off with $6.05 billion of debt. 1 PropCo’s interest expense in
2017 is expected to be $356 million. With EBITDA projected to be $609 million, the new PropCo willspend over half of its earnings on interest expenses alone. Once all expenses are paid, projected net
income is estimated to be a paltry $81 million.2
REITs are new to the gaming industry, with the first, Gaming and Leisure Properties
(NASDAQ:GLPI) spinning-off from Penn National Gaming in 2013. In the second quarter of this
year MGM created a second gaming REIT, MGM Growth Properties (NYSE:MGP). GLPI and MGP
have considerably less debt than will CEOC’s proposed PropCo, an estimated $4.7 billion and
$3.2 billion in 2017 respectively.3
Gaming REITs are structured to have triple-net leases in which the tenant is responsible for
property taxes, insurance, upkeep, equipment replacement and all other capital expenditures.
It is, therefore, appropriate to compare Gaming REITs to other triple-net lease REITs, such as
large retail and restaurant REITs. Comparing the five largest retail REITs only one, VEREIT, had a
debt load higher than the proposed PropCo. However, while VEREIT reported debt of $8.06
billion at the end of 2015, it also reported EBITDA nearly double PropCo’s projected $609
million. In the table that follows Debt to EBITDA ratios and interest coverage ratios are
compared for the gaming REITs and large retail REITs.4
REIT Name 2015 Debt
(in billions)5
2015 EBITDA
(in millions)
2015
Debt/EBITDA
2015 Interest
Coverage
Ratio
Caesars PropCo
(2017 projected) 6
$6.1 $609 9.9 1.7
MGP (2017 projected) 7 $3.2 $545 5.8 3.7
GLPI (2017 projected) 8 $4.7 $844 5.6 4.0
W.P. Carey9 $4.5 $713 6.3 3.7
VEREIT, Inc.10 $8.1 $1,190 6.8 3.3
Realty Income Corp. 11 $4.8 $930 5.2 4.0
Spirit Realty Capital12 $4.1 $601 6.8 2.7
National Retail
Properties13
$2.0 $329 6.0 3.7
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It is clear the Caesars PropCo would have a much higher debt burden than its peers. While the
other REITs have a Debt to EBITDA ratio ranging from a low of 5.2 to a high of 6.8, the proposed
PropCo’ ratio would be a whopping 9.9, about 50% higher than the average of the other REITs.
PropCo’s EBITDA to interest expense would be 1.7—less than 50% of the median.
B. The problem with too much debt: How will PropCo Grow?
According to the Disclosure Statement, PropCo will have call rights to purchase the Harrah’s
Laughlin, Harrah’s Atlantic City, and Harrah’s New Orleans properties. The rights are extended
for five years.14 With projected income at $81 million after interest and other expenses are
paid, PropCo will not be able to purchase any of those properties with cash on hand. CEOC may
have tacitly acknowledged this problem by assuming, in its recently released financial
projections, that these call rights will not be exercised.15 In order to exercise these rights,
PropCo would need to raise capital or take on even more debt. But at what terms given theinitial proposed leverage?
REITs tend to be limited in their financing choices. Ninety percent of retained earnings must be
distributed to shareholders. REIT shareholders tend to be averse to high leverage, because
paying interest competes with distributing dividends, which REIT shareholders expect. REITs
can issue additional stock only when investors perceive the business is doing well and the
current debt service does not prevent the REIT from paying regular dividends.
REITs need to grow in order to increase revenue from rent payments. Otherwise they may be
unable to maintain, much less increase, their dividends, which is necessary to attract more
shareholders. With only about 550 commercial casinos in the United States, and only a fraction
of those for sale at any given time, there are few acquisition targets within the gaming
industry.16 As highlighted in the previous section, PropCo will already be highly leveraged
relative to its peers. As the new REIT tries to expand its portfolio, it will be competing with GLPI
and MGP, formidable gaming REITs with significantly lower debt loads and, at least in the case
of GLPI, a track record of steadily increasing dividends.
C. Few properties, few tenants, lots of risk
The retail REITs are considerably more diversified than existing gaming REITs and the one proposed by
Caesars. PropCo, like MGP and GLPI, will be dependent on a single-industry. In contrast, the
retail REIT tenants come from dozens of different retail industries. For example, National Retail
Properties leases to retail tenants that include various types of restaurants, convenience stores,
automotive stores, and theaters among other industries.
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REIT Name Ticker #
industries
# tenants #
properties
Caesars PropCo 1 1 18
MGP17 MGP 1 1 10GLPI18 GLPI 1 3 35
W.P. Carey19 WPC many 222 869
VEREIT, Inc.20 VER many 735 4,378
Realty Income Corp.21 O many 240 4,538
Spirit Realty Capital22 SRC many 435 2,629
National Retail
Properties23
NNN many 400+ 2,293
At the end of 2015, the number of properties owned by the retail REITs ranged from 869 to4,538 compared to 18 in the proposed Caesars REIT. The large retail REITs also have
considerably more tenants, with no fewer than 222 separate tenants. In contrast, the proposed
PropCo will be dependent on just one heavily indebted private equity-owned tenant.
Why does portfolio diversity matter? Gaming REITs are so new that none have gone through a
significant economic downturn. Yet, it was clear from the last recession that casino operators
are not immune from the effects of a downturn. Unlike retail REITs with a mix of tenants across
many industries, PropCo will be extremely vulnerable if its only tenant defaults on the lease.
Many of the properties to be included in PropCo are located on rivers or the coast, where
flooding and storm damage could interfere with tenant’s operating results and ability to pay
rent. Caesars routinely discloses risk related to flooding and hurricanes. For instance in a 2014
filing, Caesars disclosed, “In addition, natural and man-made disasters such as major fires,
floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and oil spills could also adversely impact our business and
operating results. For example, four of our properties in Louisiana and Mississippi were closed
for an extended period of time due to the damage sustained from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
in August and September 2005, respectively. Such events could lead to the loss of use of one or
more of our properties for an extended period of time and disrupt our ability to attractcustomers to certain of our gaming facilities. If any such event were to affect our properties, we
would likely be adversely impacted. Seven of our properties were closed during the first half of
2011 due to flooding and severe weather conditions. Additionally, in August 2011, our casinos
in Atlantic City were closed during a busy summer weekend due to Hurricane Irene.”24 The
Atlantic City properties were also closed for multiple days in 2012 following Hurricane Sandy.25
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D. A Triple Net REIT with maintenance obligations?
Gaming is a capital intensive industry. Casinos compete for the discretionary spending of
consumers and consequently need to be well maintained and equipped with modern gamingelectronic machines, the technology of which, like computers, is constantly changing and
quickly obsolete. Therefore responsibility for maintenance is a costly and important element of
leaseback arrangements in gaming. The proposed lease between Caesars PropCo and the
operator is called a triple net lease, meaning the tenant (OpCo) pays for the real estate taxes,
property insurance, and the maintenance costs of the property. That sounds good for PropCo,
but the devil is in the details.
According to the Second Amended Joint Plan of Reorganization, during the first three years of
the lease PropCo will reimburse OpCo for a portion of maintenance capital expenditures. Thereimbursement could be up to $30 million in each of the first three years.26 Given that PropCo
will also be saddled with significant debt following the restructuring, why is there a provision
that modifies the triple net structure in favor of OpCo?
E.
And what happens when interest rates eventually rise?
On May 27, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen confirmed that a quarter-point rate increase is
expected in the coming months.27 This would follow the quarter point rate increase made in
December 2015 which was the first rate hike since 2008. In the context of rising interest rates,there is always speculation about the impact on real estate investment, including REITs.
The impact of rising rates on REIT operating performance depends on several factors. REIT.com
economist, Calvin Schnure suggests REIT operating performance may depend on, “How much
will higher interest payments affect earnings? How solid are REIT balance sheet positions? Will
higher short-term rates cause any difficulties covering interest payments?”28 Schnure notes
that equity REITs in the aggregate have higher interest coverage ratios and lower debt than in
2004, before the last period of rising interest rates. That’s not the profile for the proposed
Caesars PropCo. With both debt and interest expense considerably higher than other gaming
and retail REITs, the Caesars PropCo will launch with the weakest balance sheet position among
its peers, in the expected context of rising interest rates.
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Section II: Problems at OpCo
A.
Will OpCo be able to pay the rent?
It isn’t only PropCo that will face a challenging future. The proposed new OpCo also faces an
uncertain future.
The recently released Amended Plan of Reorganization pegs the rent for OpCo at $640 million a
year for the first seven years ($165 m for Caesars Palace LV, $465 m for the other properties
combined and $10 m for the golf course).29
Additionally OpCo will have interest payments on around $2 billion in debt. In the most recent
Disclosure Statement, Caesars estimates that those payments will be $157 million in the first
year.30 In total, then, there will be fixed payments (rent and interest) of $797 million or over
70% of 2015 EBITDA.
Had CEOC been obligated to pay those fixed costs over the past three years, it would have
constituted a large proportion of each year’s EBITDA as the following chart shows:
And without the flexibility of owning the facilities, and absent a bailout from its private equity
backers, the high fixed costs may lead to another Chapter 11 filing if EBITDA declines in the near
term, as we believe it is likely to do.
B. EBITDA is Likely to Decline in the Next Few Years
While some might claim that CEOC can “grow” its way out of the problem of too much rent, we
believe that to be highly unlikely and, in fact, we expect EBITDA to DECLINE in the near term.
We believe that EBITDA increases in 2015 will prove to be ephemeral because they are the
result of cost cutting measures on declining revenues and not the result of growing the
business.
As Caesars’ CEO said during a recent earnings call:
A key contributor [to increased EBITDA] has been the reduction of enterprise-wide
marketing spend relative to elevated spend in prior years. This has resulted in both
(in millions) 201531 2014 201332
Net Revenue $4711 $4812 $4985
EBITDA $1132 $819 $1063
Fixed costs as a percent of
EBITDA
70% 97% 75%
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reduced free slot play offers and a 4% reduction in casino direct expenses, as we
implemented a more targeted approach on complimentary awards to enhance overall
customer profitability.33
There are two strategies for dealing with declining revenues in the gaming industry. One is to
provide superior customer service and generous comps in the hope of getting more business.
The other is to cut service and comps to maintain profit or minimize losses. In Atlantic City,34 a
market that has lost 50% of its gaming revenues since 2006, there are examples of both
strategies. The Borgata, on the one hand, has maintained levels of service and comps, but the
Caesars properties took the cost-cutting route.
Since the end of 2007 (right before Apollo and TPG took over Caesars) at the Borgata, expenses
have declined by 1%, comps INCREASED by 19%, and casino revenue was down 1% and EBITDA
was down 12%. In contrast, at the Caesars Atlantic City properties, expenses have declined by
39%, comps were down by 34%, revenue was down 49%, and EBITDA was down by an eye-
popping 52%.
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Expenses
Comps
Revenue
EBITDA
Cutting Expenses and Comps Correlated to
Decreased Revenue and Profits at Caesars’
Atlantic City Casinos 2007-2015
Borgata Caesars Properties
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Revenue Declines at CEOC average 37% from 2007 to 2015
If, as the evidence from Atlantic City suggests, CEOC will not be able to cut its way to higher
profitability, then perhaps increased revenues could lead to higher profits.
Unfortunately, under Apollo and TPG’s stewardship, gaming revenues have declinedsubstantially at all CEOC properties for which data are available:
Property 2015 Revenues35 (in
millions)
2007 Revenues Percent Change
Bally’s Atlantic City36 $211 $641 -67%
Caesars Atlantic
City37
$310 $583 -47%
Harrah’s NorthKansas City38
$175 $203 -14%
Harrah’s Joliet39 $186 $381 -51%
Harrah’s Metropolis40 $83 $170 -51%
Harrah’s Council
Bluffs41
$74 $101 -27%
Horseshoe Council
Bluffs42
$183 $200 -8%
Horseshoe Southern
Indiana43
$252 $341 -26%
Horseshoe
Hammond44
$433 $444 -3%
Horseshoe Bossier
City45
$200 $283 -29%
Louisiana Downs46 $53 $91 -42%
Total $2160 $3438 -37%
Mississippi and Nevada do not report property-level gaming revenues. In Mississippi, gaming
revenues statewide fell 27% over the time period,47 in Lake Tahoe, NV they fell 37%, in Reno,
NV they fell 24%, and the Las Vegas Strip fell 7%.48
Despite the experience of the last 8 years, Apollo and TPG suggest that revenue growth is just
around the corner. According to the disclosure statement, in 2017 revenue growth will range
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from -0.3% (in Atlantic City) to 4.2% (in Las Vegas) with a median rise of 2.3%.49 Their estimates
for 2018, 2019 and 2020 are average (median) revenue increases of 2.1%, 2.1% and 2.4%
The bankruptcy court appointed examiner discusses Caesars’ use of two sets of projections for
different audiences:
In a 2014 transaction, the financial advisors were told to rely on revised projections created
solely for their use because the company’s budget numbers were considered too optimistic
(see Section VIII.D, infra). The company’s ordinary course numbers, however, continued to
be used for all other purposes, including with lenders, with auditors for impairment
analyses and in ongoing presentations to the CEC Board.50
C. Is Caesars Guarantee of the Debt Worth the Paper it’s Written On?
Some might claim that the fact that CEC has guaranteed the lease payments of CEOC should
enable creditors to sleep easy at night.
But this is not the first time that CEC has offered a guarantee for CEOC. CEC had been the
guarantor of $14.75 billion worth of non-first lien debt.51 The examiner describes what
transpired:
By the end of 2013 there also was increasing concern about a possible CEOC bankruptcy.
This led to transactions to make certain that in the event of such a bankruptcy it would
not interfere with the operations of non-CEOC properties owned directly or indirectly by
CEC, and that prior to any CEOC bankruptcy CEC’s guarantees of CEOC debt would beeither eliminated or modified so that a CEOC bankruptcy did not inevitably cause a CEC
bankruptcy.52
Caesars devised a plan with a junior bondholder that eliminated the guarantee—to the
detriment of creditors.
With Apollo/TPG’s track record with regard to the bond guarantee, why would anyone assume
that CEC’s guarantee of the lease agreements would be any more secure?
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1 Case 15-01145 Doc 3767-1 Filed 05/18/16, Exhibit E, p. 23 (pdf page 790).2 Case 15-01145 Doc 3767-1 Filed 05/18/16, Exhibit E, p. 19 (pdf page 786).3 Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, “Weekly Valuation Summary: Gaming,” Deutsche Bank Markets Research, May
27, 2016, p. 6.4 While many REITs routinely report FFO or AFFO as measures of financial performance, Caesars has provided
projected EBITDA, the most common measure of earnings in the gaming industry. Therefore we have used Debt to
EBITDA and EBITDA to Interest Expense.5 Because all of the gaming REITs are either very new or have recently experienced a massive acquisition, we are
using projected 2017 data. The data come from Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, “Weekly Valuation Summary:
Gaming,” Deutsche Bank Markets Research, May 27, 2016, p. 6 for GLPI and MGP. And from Case 15-01145 Doc
3767-1 Filed 05/18/16, Exhibit E for Caesars.6 Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, “Weekly Valuation Summary: Gaming,” Deutsche Bank Markets Research, May
27, 2016, p. 6.7 Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, “Weekly Valuation Summary: Gaming,” Deutsche Bank Markets Research, May
27, 2016, p. 6.8 Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, “Weekly Valuation Summary: Gaming,” Deutsche Bank Markets Research, May
27, 2016, p. 6.9 WP Carey 2015 10-K, pp. 12, 77, and 78.10 VEREIT Fourth Quarter and Full Year Press Release, Feb. 24, 2015 and VEREIT 2015 10-K, pp. 35 and F-41.11 Realty Income Corp 10-K 2015, pp. 32, 42, and 54.12 Spirit Realty Capital 10-K 2015, pp. 41, 42 and 45.13 National Retail Properties, 10-K 2015, p. 18; and Press Release, “Record Annual Results and Increased 2016
Guidance Announced by National Retail Properties, Inc.,” February 11, 2016, p. 4.14 Case 15-01145 Doc 3767-1 Filed 05/18/16, Exhibit 2, p. 110 (pdf page 1016).15 Caesars Entertainment, 8-K May 27, 2016
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858339/000119312516605782/d193897dex991.htm, p.416 Bank of America Merrill Lynch, “Gaming Primer 2014: How to Play the Game.” Sept. 5 2014. P. 8.17 http://www.mgmgrowthproperties.com/portfolio-overview.
18 https://www.pnkinc.com/about-us/ and http://www.glpropinc.com/OurPortfolio. GLPI did not acquire BelterraPark and Retama Park, see GLPI 8-K, 4/28/2016 p. 2.19 WP Carey 2015 10-K, p. 3.20 http://www.vereit.com/portfolio21 Realty Income Corp 10-K 2015, p. 33.22 https://www.snl.com/IRWebLinkX/corporateprofile.aspx?iid=4335136. 23 http://investors.nnnreit.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/103064/IFS_33116.pdf . 24 CZR, FORM424B3 filed on 7/2/14, p. 45.25 CZR, 10-K, filed on 2/29/16, p. 20.26 Case 15-01145 Doc 3765 Filed 05/18/16, Lease Term Sheet, p. 8 (Page 109 of the pdf.)27 Forsyth, Randall W. “Yellen changes her tune on interest rate hikes.” Barron’s. May 28, 2016.28 Schnure, Calvin. “REITs in a Rising Interest Rate Environment: Gauging the Impact on Operating Performance.”
Market Commentary blog on REIT.com. January 7, 2016. https://www.reit.com/data-research/research/market-
commentary/reits-rising-interest-rate-environment-gauging-impact
29 Case 15-01145 Doc 3767-1 Filed 05/18/16, Exhibit E, p. 11 (pdf page 778).30 Doc 3767, Exhibit E, p. 7.31 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5FED0N/0x0x876893/CAD00D88-4A64-44F8-A1C4-
BAA838F99545/2015_Q4_CEC_Earnings_Presentation_2-23-16_1000_PT_Final.pdf . P. 2232 2014 10-K, pp. 45, 46.33 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3922576-caesars-entertainments-czr-ceo-mark-frissora-q4-2015-results-
earnings-call-transcript?part=single.
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34 We use Atlantic City as our example because it is the only jurisdiction that provides property level information
about EBITDA.35 State gaming boards. For the states that report on a fiscal year, we have used the data for FY 2015 and FY 2007.36 http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/PressRel2008/200812_revenue.pdf , and
http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/PressRel2015/December2015PressRelease.pdf . 37 Ibid.38 http://www.mgc.dps.mo.gov/annual_reports/AR_CurrentYear/00_FullReport.pdf , and
http://www.mgc.dps.mo.gov/annual_reports/AR_2008.pdf . 39 https://www.igb.illinois.gov/FilesRiverboatRevenueReports/201512CasinoReport.pdf , p. 2, and
https://www.igb.illinois.gov/FilesRiverboatRevenueReports/200712CasinoReport.pdf , p. 2.40 Ibid.41 https://irgc.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2015/09/fy2007.pdf , and
https://irgc.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2015/10/fy2015.pdf . 42 Ibid.43 http://www.in.gov/igc/files/FY2015-Annual.pdf , p. 10, and http://www.in.gov/igc/files/FY2007-Annual.pdf , p. 8.44 Ibid.45
http://dpsweb.dps.louisiana.gov/lgcb.nsf/ddb20cf421af536586256e9b0049df46/121e1d1c9b93ae2986257e8b0066e598/$FILE/2015%20June%20Riverboat.pdf , 46
http://dpsweb.dps.louisiana.gov/lgcb.nsf/c96de02839c32fae86256e9b0049dc76/f9ca032cd18146a786257e8b006
71ab5/$FILE/2015%20June%20Racetrack.pdf , and
http://dpsweb.dps.louisiana.gov/lgcb.nsf/c96de02839c32fae86256e9b0049dc76/7436fd07afc9e43286257487006
61445/$FILE/JUNE%202008%20GCB.Racetrack.pdf . 47 https://www.dor.ms.gov/Business/Documents/GamingGrossRevenues%20History2016.pdf . 48 http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=10810, p. 12 (LV Strip), p. 24 (Lake Tahoe) and
33 (Reno), and http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=3883, p. 12 (LV Strip), p. 24 (Lake
Tahoe) and 33 (Reno).49 Doc 3767, Exhibit E, p. 10.50 Examiner’s Report, p. 13. 51 Examiner’s Report, p. 62.52 Examiner’s Report, p. 5.