Probation Trends Dr. Melissa Alexander Chief USPO, MD/NC
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Working Smarter, not Harder Understanding individual cases
better, not treating everyone the same Dedicate resources to the
highest risk clients Utilize evidence-based practices to provide
the most effective interventions
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Risk Assessment Actuarial tools used to help predict
success/failure PTRA (pretrial) and PCRA (post- conviction) No
current AO-sanctioned tool for presentence
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Why is risk important? Will make a difference in
release/detention recommendation Could impact sentencing
Opportunity for you to advocate for your client Makes a difference
in supervision strategies and responses to violations Could impact
arguments in revocation proceedings
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Pretrial Risk Assessment (PTRA) Administered by the probation
officer, used along with other information to make recommendation
for release/detention 11 scored and 9 unscored items Criminal
History Other
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Release Rates by PTRA Category
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Why Risk Matters 225 pretrial defendants supervised over the
past year Only 13 had violations of any kind (6%) 5 revoked 4 of
the 5 were in the highest risk categories (Category 4 or 5)
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For more info on PTRA See Sept. 2011 and Sept. 2012 issues of
Federal Probation journal http://www.uscourts.gov/viewer.aspx?d
oc=/uscourts/FederalCourts/PPS/Fedpr ob/2011-09/index.html
http://www.uscourts.gov/viewer.aspx?d
oc=/uscourts/FederalCourts/PPS/Fedpr ob/2012-09/index.html
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How you can help Provide as much information as possible
upfront Short turnaround time makes it difficult to fully
investigate everything Understand the 3 rd party custodian
responsibilities, and ensure they do too Several are now backing
out as they dont realize what theyve signed up for
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Presentence No risk assessment formally conducted during the
investigation at this time Many dynamic risk factors are included
in the report Criminal history Age at first arrest, # of arrests,
varied offending Part C Substance abuse, education/employment,
social networks
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3553(a) Factors to be Considered (1) the nature and
circumstances of the offense and the history and characteristics of
the defendant; (2) the need for the sentence imposed (C) to protect
the public from further crimes of the defendant; and (D) to provide
the defendant with needed educational or vocational training,
medical care, or other correctional treatment in the most effective
manner;
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Reasons for Departure (partial list) Criminal History
Inadequacy Age Education and Vocational Skills Mental and Emotional
Condition Physical Condition Employment Record Family Ties and
Responsibilities Military Record, Charitable Service, Good Works
Aggravating or Mitigating Circumstances Why might these
matter?
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Dynamic Risk Factors Factors an individual may demonstrate that
can change (for better or worse) Changes in turn directly impact
likelihood of recidivism If you can demonstrate potential change,
better argument for appropriate sentence
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Example: Education/Vocational Skills Those with no diploma or
ONLY a GED have higher risk to recidivate Those with GED plus
vocational certificate, or some college, have lower risk (records
MUST be verified) What is the client doing/could do that might
address this issue that could reduce risk?
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Example: Substance Use Recent use higher risk than history
(i.e. more than 12 months old) Has it caused problems in work,
family life (if not, less likely its a problem) If current use that
is problematic, are they in treatment or willing to go
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Example: Social Networks & Cognitions Social Networks
Married lower risk than single More pro-social support the better
Fewer antisocial and/or willing to cut ties with antisocial peers
Any pro-social recreational activities? Cognitions Overall
antisocial thinking/attitudes? Motivated to change?
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Static Factors Those that cant change Biggest is criminal
history However, lack of certain characteristics could be argued as
lower risk Example: Lower risk if fewer arrests (less than 8), no
violent, only 1 offense type (always drugs), successfully completed
supervision previously
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How you can help Help provide verified records (better for risk
assessment and for BOP programming) Help get interviews done ASAP
More time to gather collateral info.
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Post-conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) Administered by officer
at the beginning of supervision Five major areas Criminal History
Education/Employment Substance Abuse Social Networks Cognitions
Used to determine intervention strategies
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PCRA Case Distribution
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What Difference does it make? 2013 Revocation Rates Prior to
EBP (2010), overall National avg. = 28.8%; MD/NC = 32.4%
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For more info on PCRA. See US Courts website for videos and a
downloadable report http://www.uscourts.gov/FederalCourts
/ProbationPretrialServices/Supervision/ PCRA.aspx
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What Happens during Supervision? Focus on supervision by risk
i.e. High risk seen at least twice per month Focus on the
individuals dynamic risk factors Use of STARR techniques Result:
Over 30% decrease in revocations over the past 4 years! 12 month
revocation rate in 2010 was 31% Current 12 month rate is 21%
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STARR Skills Active Listening Role Clarification Effective
Reinforcement Effective Disapproval Effective Use of Authority
Effective Punishment Teaching the Cognitive Model Applying the
Cognitive Model Reviewing the Cognitive Model Problem Solving
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Impact of Starr It has helped me a whole lot because not only,
you know supervising somebody on probation yeah thats their job but
by them actually wanting to know how Im feeling, as far as
different situations, lets me know that ok theyre not just doing
their job, they showing that they care, they showing that they want
to see me to do better, so it has helped me to think differently,
and react to a lot of different things in more positive ways, as
far as a lot of the questions, and I think its called cognitive
thinking.that is very helpful because it helps you look at the ins
and outs before you react to something. For one I was always the
type of person to where I would do something and think about, you
know, the consequences of it later.lets say someone makes me mad
and I want to punch this person in the face, well as soon as I feel
that I want to punch this person in the face I go on and punch him
in the face, thats how I used to do, versus now the thought comes
up I want to punch him in the face but then I stop and think ok now
if I punch this person in the face it can lead to us fightin,
police comin, or him shootin me or us shootin at each other and
what am I gonna get from all this a charge, locked up, hurt,
possibly dead, so then I just sit and think ok now if I dont hit
him in the face and I just go on about my business then, Ill be ok
aint gotta worry about the police, I aint gotta worry about gettin
shot, aint gotta worry about him trying to come back later on with
a few of his friends so basically I go with the positive side, so
it actually help me to stop, think, then react.
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What Can We Do to Help You? Our office is here to provide the
best service to the court and the community Justice best served
when we all work together Focus on continued quality improvement in
services and outcomes Contact me directly at any time!