Upload
jayson-dawson
View
212
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
42510011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Probability
What is probability?
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Thumbtack Experiment
• Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface
• How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Thumbtack Experiment
• Lets try the experiment– Toss 5 thumbtacks up and let them
land.– Write down your individual data: how
many landed with the point straight up?
– Group data
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Thumbtack Experiment
• Based on our experiment…What is the probability that a randomly chosen thumbtack that is tossed up will land with the point side straight up?
• Experimental vs. Theoretical• Is there a way to find the theoretical
probability for this experiment?
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Dice Experiment
• Work with your elbow partner– One person rolls 2 dice– One person tallies the sum of the 2
dice
• Record your data on the poster • Histogram
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Dice Experiment
• Based on our experiment…What is the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is– 2?– 5?– 7?– 11?
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Dice Experiment
• Experimental vs. Theoretical• Is there a way to find the
theoretical probabilities for this experiment?
• Equally Likely Outcomes Model– Sample Space of equally likely
outcomes
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Dice Experiment
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
Dice Experiment
• Compute (theoretical) probabilities – Compare these results to our
experimental probabilities
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
M&M Experiment
• Dump out your bag of M&Ms• Consider the experiment: an M&M
is randomly selected from your pile of M&Ms
• What is the probability of selecting each of the available colors?
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
M&M Experiment
• Compare your results with your table group members
• Now compute the probability of selecting each of the available colors for your table group
• Record your group data on the poster
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
M&M Experiment
• The theoretical probabilities of obtaining each color from a bag of M&Ms are depicted in the following table: Color Probability
of that color
Yellow 0.14
Red 0.13
Orange 0.20
Brown 0.13
Green 0.16
Blue
What is the probability of blue?
4251
0011 0010 1010 1101 0001 0100 1011
M&M Experiment
• Make a prediction: How many of each color would be likely to be found in a bag of 50? 100? 250? 500? 1000?