Probability and Statistics Required!

2

Review Outline

Connection to simulation. Concepts to review. Assess your understanding. Addressing knowledge gaps.

Probability, Statistics, and Simulation

Simulate random components- Generation of Interarrivals Service times Breakdowns Repair times

…that are assumed tobehave according to fitted distributions.

Simulation Model

Datae.g., InterarrivalsService timesBreakdownsRepair times…

Distribution Fitting

• Compute statistics • Graphical representation• Choose distributions

• Mass functions• Density functions• Distribution fcns.

• Goodness-of-fit tests (statistical inference)

Simulation replications

Warm-up

Samples of systemPerformancex1

x2

…xn

Output AnalysisStatistical tests and measures

3

Statistics & Probability Probability Statistics

“Statistics” – processing/analyzing data“Probability” – Manipulating/utilizing functions characterizing uncertainty

4

Concepts to Review

Random variables. Statistics and graphs computed from

collected data. Probabilistic distribution functions. Statistical inference.

5

Self Assessment

Utilize “IE 415/515 Prob. and Stat. Review Questions”. Available on the course website.

Answers will be reviewed in class.

6

Addressing Knowledge Gaps

Review IE 355 notes. Utilize an engineering statistics text,

or the IE 355 text. Understand the concepts

Do additional problems Utilize text books, web-based material

for other explanations.