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Probabilistic forecasting of wind and waves for
offshore energy applications
Pierre Pinson, M. Fortin, P.-J. Trombe, H. Madsen
Technical University of Denmark, DTU Informaticsmail: [email protected] - webpage: www.pierrepinson.com
Rave 2012 Conference - Session 8: ForecastingBremerhaven, 8-10 May 2012
Supported by the Danish PSO project Radar@Sea
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Background: point forecasting
Forecasts (weather, energy production, etc.) are commonly provided in the form ofpoint forecasts (i.e. the conditional expectation for each look-ahead time)
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look−ahead time [hours]
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Different methodologies have been introduced and evaluated for wind, solar and wave power forecasting
Their level of accuracy is highly variable and depending upon external factors
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Background: uncertainty ?!?
The level of accuracy is highly variable from one prediction to the other. This makesweather and energy-related forecasts somewhat hard to handle...
One cannot make optimal decisions from such predictions — an information ontheir (non-Gaussian) uncertainty is necessary!! (also accounting for correlationissues)
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Forecasts for decision-making
Forecasts are to be used as input to (potentially complex) decision-making!
Actually, each forecast user has its own cost function(that he does not necessarily know...!!)
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So... What are the best forecasts for offshore energy-related applications??
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1 Monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather/ocean and energy variables(0-6 hours)
2 Multivariate scenarios of wind and wave characteristics
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Monitoring and short-term forecasts
X-band weather radars (range: 60kms) were installed at Horns Rev in 2009/2010 incollaboration with the Radar@Sea project
Supplemented by the DMI C-band radar (range: 240kms) at Rømø, they are usedfor
monitoring of weather conditions (safety)analysis of meteorological episodes (/climatology)improving short-term forecastsbetter control for episodes with intense fluctuations
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Illustrative episode: 15-19.12.2010
Also see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YShQDCdVykM
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Multivariate scenarios for wind and waves
Multivariate scenarios of wind and wave characteristics are a must-have as input todecision-making
Example work was performed based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts for FINO-1 over2010-2011
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wind speed
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These scenarios may beprovided by a number of public and commercial meteorological institutescalibrated for the purpose of optimal decision-makingused as input to complex decision-making problems related to offshore energy applications
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Quality of such scenarios
ECMWF ensemble predictions already are extremely good at this kind of job...
lead time (h)
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S (
m s
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1)
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and they can be significantly improved through appropriate multivariate calibrationprocedures
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Outlook
Producing calibrated multivariate probabilistic forecasts of:input meteorological variables (wind and wave characteristics)power generation offshore (wind and wave energy)
Such forecasts also inform about space-time dependencies
Toy and real-world decision-making models should be set-up and analysed, for:optimal maintenance planningoptimal operation of wind-wave offshore energy plantetc.
Evaluating the quality and value of probabilistic forecasts (/scenarios)actual forecast quality(increased) value when used in decision-making
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Thanks for your attention!
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