Private Equity Investment Committee

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    KKR Private Equity InvestmentCommitteesAlex Navab

    July 17, 2012

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    Process Overview

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    Investment Committee

    Main decision making forum for all new investments for private equity

    Meets formally two times per week Monday and Thursday mornings (NY time)

    Iterative process not just the last step

    All key decision points should come to the Committee

    Meaningful money to be spent on analysis

    Initial bid proposal (excluding early stage and exploratory first round bids)

    Interim and final bids

    Formal approach to company or board

    Committee should also be used as sounding board, and we are actively encouraging coming to theCommittee earlier in your evaluation/thinking

    Controversial issues

    Specific guidance on issues

    Quick read before a lot of work done (e.g., minority investment)

    Most investments will be discussed with the Committee four or more times before a final decision

    Also encouraging using regional heads/other IC members as a sounding board before coming to theCommittee

    Memos to be submitted Friday for Monday meeting and Tuesday for Thursday meeting

    Email Erika Stadtlander prior to memo submission, copying Alex Navab and Johannes Huth, to geton the agenda

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    What to Cover

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    Macro / Industry Analysis

    Detailed discussion around how macro environment is expected to impact thesector (to be incorporated with firms macro view)

    Include deal teams view on key macro risks and opportunities as part of theiranalysis of key investment highlights and considerations

    Provide overview of how deal performs under various macro outcomes

    If relevant, highlight correlation to certain key macroeconomic statistics

    MacroPerspective

    Respond to the question: Why is it good to invest in the sector today?

    Medium and long-term thesis on industry / sector and why it is attractive

    Walk-though how value has been created in the industry historically (includinghow private equity has been involved in the sector)

    Outperforming and underperforming deals have often captured or missedpotential technological / industry shifts. Include view on ability to create valuethrough (or defensibility of industry to) technological / industry shifts

    Discuss other big risk areas (regulatory, competition from overseas, etc.)

    IndustryThesis(1)

    Incorporate long-term analysis (as available and relevant) on performance of

    industry through economic and industry-specific cycles Breakdown of underlying growth drivers (volume, price, margin, etc.)

    If relevant, include analysis around industry performance as the sectorevolved (evolution of companies as industry matured, new entrants,substitutes, etc.)

    Discussion of supply / demand dynamics of industry (such as customerconcentration, supplier power, input cost trends, etc.)

    Long TermIndustry

    Analysis andPerformance

    (1)

    E

    arly-Mid

    Ea

    rly

    (Updated

    Frequently)

    Mid

    (1) When presenting the above items, keep in mind guidelines provided by the legal team on the appropriate

    language, tone and descriptions to use. Additionally, remember that sensitive topics should be discussed verbally.

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    Company Specific / Risk Analysis Overview and Business Model

    Respond to the question: Why is this a good Company?

    Historical, projected, comparative ROIC and opportunity to invest behind

    Other quantifiable metrics and comparisons

    Provide clear description of products and services of the Company Discuss long-term historical performance of the Company

    Include performance through various economic cycles. Include bothgeneral financial metrics (revenue, EBITDA, margins, capex, etc.) as wellas key operating statistics (same store sales, volume/price, etc.)

    Company

    Thesis andLong Term

    Performance

    Historical performance relative to peers and reason for under / overperformance. Outline market share trends of company (include commentaryaround shifts in share and drivers)

    Outline competitive nature of industry, implications thereof and specific valueproposition of Company. Outline Companys competitive advantages (cost,service, technology, etc.) and the sustainability of the competitive advantage

    Provide customers and key suppliers feedback (collected on primary basis) oncustomer satisfaction, vendor satisfaction, competitive position, etc.

    CompetitivePositioning(1)

    Provide full assessment of company culture and management(2)

    Provide plan for management team Highlight key weaknesses of

    management pool and provide IC with color around certain important roles(i.e. relative importance of a CEO, COO, CFO, sales leadership, etc.)

    If turnaround, include basis for expected improvement of culture andmanagement

    During late stages, conduct and provide update on background checks for keysenior managers (Kroll reports)

    Management

    Mid

    Mid

    (Updated

    Fr

    equently)

    Mid-Late

    (1) When presenting the above items, keep in mind guidelines provided by the legal team on the appropriatelanguage, tone and descriptions to use. Additionally, remember that sensitive topics should be discussed verbally.

    (2) Colorful characterizations of management are better handled verbally, as IC decks can be produced in litigation and seen by managers

    and descriptions of mangers can be requested by managers in some countries under data privacy laws.

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    IC Process Suggestions

    Include other geographic / industry vertical teams that have had significantexperience in the space and / or cover suppliers or customers of the Company

    Teams should reach out early to relevant executives to review materials

    Relevant executives should directly participate in IC discussions

    Include KCM, KKR Capstone, Public Affairs, KAM as relevant and addressplans to use them post-deal

    Any discussion of fees and allocations should be avoided in the IC materials

    CrossFunction /Geography

    Involvement

    Teams should be prepared to walk the IC through the following verbally

    Overview of process dynamics (including motivation for sellers, other

    bidders, potential partners and others) For consortia, address early who the partners are, partnership dynamic,

    and ability to involve other parts of KKR (KCM, Capstone, etc.)

    Provide download on findings of advisors (consulting, accounting, legal, tax,environment, labor, insurance, govtrelations, etc.). For sensitive points thatmay be legally privileged, please run by outside or internal counsel in advance

    DealProcess,Partnership/Consortia &

    Other

    Th

    roughout

    Throughout

    Investment Committee to provide deal team with discreet structured follow-up

    items

    Deal teams to respond to each follow-up item from prior session during everyIC meetingFollow Up

    Items

    Throughout

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    Specific Opportunity:

    Take Private of Willis (3rd

    Largest Global Insurance Broker)

    Objective:

    Show impact of broader economy on the insurance industryandoutline a specific thesis on industry growth.

    Conclusions:

    a) The insurance sector follows the economy over the long-term, buthas industry-specific cycles.

    b) Timing the insurance cycle is important to generating attractivereturns in the insurance brokerage space given the tying of the

    growth of the broker space to commercial P&C premiums.c) Q: Why is it good to invest in the sector today?

    A: Visibility on hardening cycle in the medium term, opportunity toenter market before valuations reset when insurance cycle

    hardening is more visible.d) No visible positive or negative technological / industry shifts

    expected to impact the industry.

    Sample Macro / Industry Analysis 1: Willis (2010)

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    Insurance broker organic growth is highly correlated with growth in commercial P&C premiums

    Over the long term, P&C premiums grow But over shorter-term horizons,

    in-line with the economy P&C premium growth is highly cyclical

    Source: KKR Analysis, Company Filings, A.M. Best, SNL, Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Hard Cycle

    4%2%

    4%3%

    8%5%

    5%

    15%

    18%

    12%

    (5%)

    -

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 6/10

    Comm'l P&C NPW Growth

    Broker Industry Organic Growth

    Willis Organic Growth

    -

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09

    -

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000P&C Net Premiums Earned (Left Axis)

    Nominal GDP (Right Axis)

    (10%)

    (5%)

    -

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09

    2.0%

    2.2%

    2.4%

    2.6%

    2.8%

    3.0%

    3.2%

    3.4%

    3.6%

    3.8%

    4.0%

    NPE Growth (Left Axis)

    NPE / GDP (Right Axis)

    Sample Macro / Industry Analysis: Willis (2010) (contd)

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    Most Significant Value Creation Event in Recent History Was Willis' Initial Buyout

    (10%)

    (8%)

    (6%)

    (4%)

    (2%)

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 6/10

    WillsOut/Underperformanc

    (25%)

    (20%)

    (15%)

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    RevenueGrowt

    Willis Out/Underperformance Willis Rev Growth Broker Ind Rev Growth

    Sample Macro / Industry Analysis: Willis (2010) (contd)

    - Significant desire by insurance carriers and corporates alike to create a third

    option to Marsh & McLennan and Aon, who were the only large brokers of scale

    - KKR partnered with insurance carriers in 1998 on the acquisitions

    - This was a large driver of shift from underperformer to outperformer

    Although Commission Rates Have Modestly Grown, Revenue is Driven by Volume Growth (P&C Premiums)with EBITDA Further Accelerated by Margin Expansion

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 6/10

    Vol Growth (P&C Prems) (0.9%) (1.8%) 0.3% 5.4% 9.5% 21.3% 12.8% 7.2% 2.5% 6.7% (0.9%) (3.6%) (6.9%) (3.6%)

    Comm Rate Growth 5.9% 6.0% 6.5% 2.4% 0.3% (5.7%) (0.7%) (6.2%) (3.6%) (3.6%) 3.1% 5.0% 6.4% 3.8%

    Broker Revenue Growth 5.0% 4.2% 6.8% 7.8% 9.8% 15.6% 12.2% 1.0% (1.2%) 3.1% 2.2% 1.4% (0.5%) 0.2%

    Broker EBITDA Margin 16.4% 16.6% 16.9% 17.3% 18.1% 18.7% 19.5% 20.2% 21.0% 21.9% 23.0% 23.2% 23.7% 24.1%

    Broker EBITDA Margin Change +0.2% +0.3% +0.4% +0.8% +0.6% +0.8% +0.7% +0.8% +0.9% +1.1% +0.2% +0.5% +0.4%Broker EBITDA Growth 5.2% 5.5% 8.7% 10.3% 14.9% 19.4% 17.0% 4.7% 2.7% 7.5% 7.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9%

    0

    50

    100

    150200

    10

    20

    30

    40Revenue EBITDA

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    A Hardening Cycle May Be Getting Closer

    Statutory cash flows have deteriorated, indicating And rates may be approaching the unprofitable levels

    carriers may soon look to raise rates of the late 1990s

    But It Is Not Yet Imminent

    It took three years of unfavorable reserve developments prior Underwriting profitability still appears to be

    to the last hard cycle, and we have had none to-date much better than in the late 1990s

    Source: KKR Analysis, SNL, The Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers

    18%

    22%25%

    19%20%

    13%

    8% 7% 7%

    12%12%

    6%3%

    5%4%

    -

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Y TD6/10

    P&C Statutory Op. CF (bn)

    Total P&C % of Surplus

    Comm'l P&C % of Surplus

    (20)

    (15)

    (10)

    (5)

    -

    5

    10

    15

    20

    1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

    Cum. Dev't To-Date

    2-Year Dev't

    1-Year Dev't 110% 114%

    97%93% 95%

    96%92%

    95%

    103%100%

    114%115%

    110%109%

    80%

    85%

    90%

    95%

    100%

    105%

    110%

    115%

    120%

    125%

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    Reported Combined Ratio

    Combined Ratio ex. PY Reserve Dev't

    Sample Macro / Industry Analysis: Willis (2010) (contd)

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    The Next Hard Cycle May Not Be As Amplified As The Last Without A Large Catastrophe

    Industry capitalization levels remain robust The '00-'03 cycle was magnified by the tech bust and 9/11

    Based On This Analysis, We Have Formed Three Cases For P&C Cycle Assumptions

    Conservative Case: Pricing does not harden, but flattens over three years; volumes grow at 2%

    Base Hardening Case: '11-'13 same as Conservative Case; '14, '15 and '16 grow at 10%, 10% and 7%, respectively

    Aggressive Hardening Case: '11-'12 same as Conservative Case; '13-'16 replicate growth in '01-'03 (10% / 21% / 13% / 7%)

    Projected P&C Industry Net Premiums Written:

    Source: KKR Analysis, SNL, Bureau of Economic Analysis

    109%

    100%

    87%85%

    89%

    103%

    126%129%

    115%

    106%

    98%

    83%87%87%

    75%

    100%

    125%

    150%

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2.5%

    3.0%

    3.5%

    4.0%

    NPW / Surplus (Left Axis)P&C Industry Surplus / GDP (Right Axis)

    24%

    9%

    2%

    (5%)(7%)

    (1%)

    (13%)

    19%

    15%

    9%12%

    7%12%

    3%

    -15%

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD

    6/10

    Change in Stat Surplus

    Tech Bust /

    Sept. 11thKatrina /

    Rita / Wilma

    (10%)

    (5%)

    -

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Aggressive Hardening Case

    Base Hardening Case

    Conservative Case

    Sample Macro / Industry Analysis: Willis (2010) (contd)

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    Appendix 2: Sample Preliminary CompetitivePositioning Analysis

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    Specific Opportunity:

    Take Private of Supervalu

    Objective:

    Outline key competitors, positioning and relative trends.

    Conclusions:a) Share trends for grocery channel and Supervalu troubling and

    unlikely to moderate.

    b) Importance of banner / market level operating performance andregional market share.

    c) Meaningful investments in price likely needed across most

    banners.

    Preliminary Competitive Analysis: Supervalu (2011)

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    ID Sales Trend (Annual) ID Sales Trend (Last 4 Appx. Calendar Qtrs)

    EBITDA Margin EBITDA Growth (CY 2007 LTM CAGR)

    Preliminary Competitive Analysis: Supervalu (2011) (contd)

    Financial Benchmarking Analysis

    5.6%5.3%

    5.0%

    2.1%3.3% 3.4%

    0.8%

    (2.5%)

    0.4% 0.5%

    (1.2%)

    (5.1%)(6.0%)

    (4.0%)

    (2.0%)

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    2006 2007 2008 2009

    Kroger Safeway Supervalu

    1.2%

    2.4%2.7%

    2.4%

    (4.1%)

    (3.1%)

    (2.5%)(2.0%)

    (6.5%)(6.8%)

    (7.2%)

    (6.4%)

    (4.9%)

    (8.0%)

    (6.0%)

    (4.0%)

    (2.0%)

    2.0%

    4.0%

    Q409 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10

    Kroger Safeway Supervalu

    (5.9%)

    (11.3%)

    (0.1%)

    (12.0%)

    (10.0%)

    (8.0%)

    (6.0%)

    (4.0%)

    (2.0%)

    Kroger

    Safeway

    Supervalu

    5.6%

    5.4%

    5.2%

    5.0%

    4.7%

    6.7%

    6.9%7.0%

    6.5%

    6.1%6.0%

    6.3%

    5.5%5.4%

    5.1%

    4.0%

    4.5%

    5.0%

    5.5%

    6.0%

    6.5%

    7.0%

    7.5%

    2006 2007 2008 2009 LTM

    Kroger Safeway Supervalu

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    Appendix 3: Sample Management Analysis

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    Organizational Chart and Management Overview

    The quality of the management team was an important part of our investment thesis on Company X

    Based on our assessment to-date, the Companys senior leadership talent is of high qualityand is capable of operating a much larger company

    As a result, it will be critical for us to ensure that each of the key members of the managementteam remains highly motivated and is provided with sufficient responsibility and upsideopportunity

    CEO successor potential Strongno issuesIn question Under strengthto leaveResigned New

    Searches in Progress

    Position Timing to Fill

    Open Position 1 ASAP

    Open Position 2 Not Urgent; When Larger Company

    Person 3Chief Financial Officer

    Person 2Chief Operating Officer

    Person 1Chief Executive Officer

    Person4

    Unit A

    Person5

    Unit B

    Person6

    Unit C

    Person7

    Unit D

    Person8

    Unit E

    Person9

    Unit F

    Management Analysis: Company X

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    Executive Position Roll % /$ Early Assessment Concerns/Action

    Person 1 CEO [ ]% / $[ ]mm Strong, sales-oriented CEO. Hascommand and respect of his people

    Need to mentor on softeningleadership style

    Person 2 COO [ ]% / $[ ]mm Highly talented, execution focused COO.Overqualified for role

    Need to monitor to ensurebeing provided with enoughresponsibility

    Person 3 CFO [ ]% / $[ ]mm Capable and detail oriented. Good atblocking and tackling

    Need to push to be morestrategic

    Person 4 Unit A [ ]% / $[ ]mm Long tenure at Company. Capablesteward of Unit A franchise but not a

    high-powered leader

    Responsibility scopedeclining as other leaders

    step up. Not sufficientlyaggressive/commercial todrive Unit A

    Person 5 Unit B [ ]% / $[ ]mm Extremely valuable to the franchise.Directly responsible for growth of Unit B

    Need to ensure shecontinues to be motivated

    Person 6 Unit C [ ]% / $[ ]mm Capable leader of Unit C segment andhas been able to grow the businessmeaningfully

    Need to ensure he continuesto be motivated

    Person 7 Unit D [ ]% / $[ ]mm Highly talented young leader of Unit D.Important to the growth of the segment

    Need to ensure he continuesto be motivated

    Person 8 Unit E [ ]% / $[ ]mm Overqualified for the core Unit E job.Good at thinking of operational andstrategic implications of technology toCompany X

    Need to keep motivated ashe is critical to the Company

    Person 9 Unit F [ ]% / $[ ]mm Very capable salesperson want to seemore significant desire to achieve more

    Need to monitor ability toexecute on new wins and ifright person going forward

    Senior Management Assessment

    Management Analysis: Company X (contd)

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    Appendix 4: Rationale for Investment /Sources of Return

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    Value Driver EBITDA Key Assumptions Risk Level

    At Acquisition $200

    Industry Growth +$32mm 3% estimated industry growth, 2% from general macroeconomicgrowth and 1% from secular growth

    MacroSecular

    Market Share Gain +$11mm 1% addnl growth via share gain vs historical outperformance of 3%

    Op Leverage +$31mm Flow-through rate of revenue growth based on variable cost analysis

    Cost Takeout +$30mm Already identified cost initiatives; supplemented by Capstone review

    Subtotal $304mm Implies 9% EBITDA CAGR

    Cash Flow /Deleveraging

    $716mmcash flow

    Based on historical capex levels and assumed working capitaloptimization initiatives

    Rationale for Investment

    Rationale for Investment / Sources of Return

    We believe that Company X represents an attractive investment opportunity given the returnprofile of the investment relative to the risks

    We have a high confidence level on most of the drivers of value (both controllable anduncontrollable)

    The upside opportunity is meaningful while our conservative case (which we have highconfidence we can exceed) still generates an attractive return profile

    Finally, in a severe downside scenario, our capital investment is still preserved

    Acquisition Information Capitalization Information Net Return Profile

    Acquisition TEV (w/ Fees) $1,700 Debt Funding $1,200 3-Year 5-Year

    EBITDA Multiple (Current) 8.5x Leverage 6.0x Base Case 25.6% 22.9%

    EBITDA Multiple (Forward) 7.8x Interest Coverage 2.1x Upside Case 36.3% 32.2%

    EBITDA - Capex (Current) 9.2x Equity Requirement $500 Conservative Case 18.9% 16.7%

    EBITDA - Capex (Forward) 8.4x % Equity 29.4% Downside Case (2.4%) 1.2%

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