Priorities for Climate Research in West Africa : outreaching

farmers community.Dr Ousmane NDIAYE

Civil aviation and Meteorology Agency (ANACIM)

Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Predictions 16th session UK MetOffice, Exeter, 10-12 March 2014

STRONG CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS :EXAMPLE OF THE SAHEL “inter-annual”

Sahel Short rainy season : 4 months Strong climate variability Huge socio-economical impacts :

Health : malaria, meningitis Agriculture : rain fed and shepherd limited economic resources

GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E

One single event can change the whole season

EXTREME EVENTS IN OUAGADOUGOU, BURKINA-FASO

2011 is bad year for both rainfall and crop yield

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

RainfallMillet Yield

Stan

dard

ized

ano

mal

ies

R²=0.68

FOOD SECURITY : rainfed agriculture

Rainfall and crop yield of millet in Senegal

RFE2 rainfall and FAO yield data From B. Sultan

NEED OF SEAMLESS FORECAST FROM SEASONAL TO SUB-SEASONAL TIME SCALES to plan farm activities.

Seasonal forecast varietiesOnset forecast farm preparation

Nowcasting flooding saving life (thunder)Daily forecast use of fertilizer / pesticideDecade forecast weeding, field work

Decade forecast optimum harvesting period

Before During the Crop season Maturity/end

Challenges : detecting “false onset”

Same period of onset but followed by dry spell which require : re-planting

False StartTrue Start

Regional Climate Outlook Fora

PRES-AO (16)

GHACOF (31)

PRES-AC (8)

SARCOF (16)

PRESANOR

Updated from Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI

Testing the added value of climate with farmers in Kaffrine under CCAFS funded project

Clim

ate inform

ation

Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting

Local working Group (Customize Climate information)

Farmers Agriculture

PastoralismLocal

authority

Extensions ForesteryRural radio

Seed Producers

Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin

Local P

luri-d

isciplin

ary W

orkin

g Grou

pC

omm

un

ity

Building on local knowledge:

BUILDING TRUST FOR LONG TERM PARTNERSHIP LINKAGE TO INDIGENEOUS

KNOWLEDGE

team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

“KNOWLEDGE SHOULD PRECEDE ACTION”Farmer in kaffrine

South-South exchangeLearning from Kaffrine experience

Colombia Sénégal