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Principles of Bond and Stock Valuation. Estimating value by discounting future cash flows. Bond Price (semiannual coupons). P = bond price C = annual coupon ($) F = face value (par, principal) r = yield (annual) T = years to maturity. Bond Price Relative to Par. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Principles of Bond and Stock Valuation
Estimating value by discounting future cash flows
Bond Price (semiannual coupons)
Tr
FC
r
C
r
C
P22 )
21(
2...)2
1(
2
)2
1(
2
• P = bond price• C = annual coupon ($)• F = face value (par, principal)• r = yield (annual)• T = years to maturity
Bond Price Relative to Par
• C/F > r Bond sells above par (premium bond)
• C/F = r Bond sells at par (par bond)
• C/F < r Bond sells below par (discount bond)
Zero Coupon Bonds
TrF
P2)
21(
n
n rz
)2
1(
1
• Zeros make only one payment at maturity• zn is the price today of $1 to be delivered n
semiannual periods from today• We can represent any bond price in terms of
zero coupon bond prices
Recall Applying Discount Factors to Cash Flow Streams
TT
TT
CFr
CFr
CFr
CF
r
CF
r
CF
r
CFCFP
)1(
1...
)1(
1
1
1
)1(...
)1()1(
2210
221
0
• Discount factors are like prices (exchange rates)
Price of Coupon Bond in Terms of Zeros
F
Cz
Cz
CzP T 2
...22 221
Common Stock Valuation
• I buy a stock now for P0
• I expect to sell one year from now for P1
• I collect the dividend DIV1 paid in Year 1• My opportunity cost rate of return is r
r
PDIVP
1
110
The One-Year Rate of Return
0
01
0
1
P
PP
P
DIVr
• First term represents dividend yield, second term represents capital gains
• Stock will be priced so that investors can expect to earn their opportunity cost rate of return
What Determines Future Stock Prices?
333
221
033
2
2221
022
1
)1()1(11
)1(11
r
PDIV
r
DIV
r
DIVP
r
PDIVP
r
PDIV
r
DIVP
r
PDIVP
The Dividend Discount Model
• Carrying this process on out indefinitely:
10 )1(t
tt
r
DIVP
But how can we estimate all future dividends?
Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model
• Suppose dividends grow at a constant rate g each year forever:
gr
DIVP
1
0
Stock Price Grows at rate g in Constant Growth Model
012
1 )1()1(
Pggr
DIVg
gr
DIVP
Dividends Growing at Sustainable Growth Rate
• If dividends grow because the firm pays out the fraction (1-b) of each year t’s earnings Et as dividends and retains the fraction b, reinvesting to earn the rate ROE, dividends will grow at the sustainable rate = bROE:
bROEr
EbP
10
)1(
Price-Earnings Ratio
bROEr
b
E
P
1
1
0
• PE ratio as discount rate , growth rate , and dividend payout , other things equal
• However, other things are not equal. An increase in payout lowers the growth rate
Investment Opportunities, Growth and Stock Prices
Dividend Discount Model
00 )1(t
tt
r
DIVP
gr
DIVP
1
0
• Left-hand equation is general version of Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
• Right-hand equation is special case of DDM when there is constant perpetual growth
General Case Constant Growth Case
Dividends Growing at Sustainable Growth Rate
• If dividends grow because the firm pays out the fraction (1-b) of each year t’s earnings Et as dividends and retains the fraction b, reinvesting to earn the rate ROE, dividends will grow at the sustainable rate = bROE:
bROEr
EbP
10
)1(
Growth Opportunities Model
VGOr
EP 10
• Growth Opportunities Model is an alternative but equivalent model to the DDM
• First term is the value of the earnings stream from existing assets
• VGO is value of growth opportunities
Growth Opportunities Model
1
10 )1(t
tt
r
NPV
r
EP
gr
NPV
r
EP
11
0
Second term in both expressions above is VGO (PV of NPVs of all future investments)
Value is added from positive-NPV future projects rather than a higher growth rate per se
General Case Constant Growth Case
Equivalent Approaches to Stock Valuation
1
10 )1(t
tt
r
NPV
r
EP
gr
NPV
r
EP
11
0
00 )1(t
tt
r
DIVP
gr
DIVP
1
0
Growth Opportunities Approach
General Case Constant Growth Case
Dividend Discount Approach