Title of the Research Project: Financial and Economic Profitability of Selected Agricultural Crops in Bangladesh

Effectiveness of Bangladesh`s Rice Procurement System and Possible Alternatives: Supporting Farmers` Income and Sustaining Production IncentivesPrincipal Investigator: Mohammad Jahangir Alam, PhDDepartment of Agribusiness and MarketingBAU, Mymensingh-2202Draft Results Prepared for Presentation at NFPCSP Workshop Roposhi Bangla Hotel, Dhaka 10003 -4 July, 20131Research Team2Prof. Dr. Shaheen AkterCo-InvestigatorMr. Kazi Shek Farid Research Assistant Dr. Ismat Ara BegumCo-Investigator Mrs. Ferdoushi Begum Research Assistant Mr. Md. Nahid Sattar Research Assistant 3Purposes of domestic rice procurement are: (i) Building stocks for PFDS & (ii) Income support to farmersFor the said purposes -- govt. provides a support price > production cost (ensure that farmers do not produce at a loss because of distress sells)Higher prices, are in conflict with the objective of keeping prices low for low-income consumers This conflict can be avoided through Higher govt. subsidies BUT it has budgetary implications & can reduce investment in public goodsBesides impact on govt. budget, proc. prices that are too far above market prices can favor rent seeking activitiesIntroduction4Moreover - announcement timing is also an important decision. It could--encourage investment by farmers & greater input uses improve prices when farmers engage in forced sellsFood Policy Plan of Action (2008-15): have put importance of enhancing the effectiveness of system and providing effective support to producer, while ensuring stable consumers` price Given this backdrop, the research contributes to understand Effectiveness of the system in terms of impact on the farmers Alternative system & instruments to achieve the objective of sustaining farmers` income Introduction (2)5To examine to what extent the current procurement system supports rice prices and farmers` income, thus providing production incentives (with emphasis on marginal & small farmers)To examine to what extent the current procurement system allows the government to procure adequate supplies for its distribution needsTo identify actionable options for enhancing the effectiveness of the procurement system considering their relative costs and benefits, and possible alternative methods for supporting farm income, other than a procurement systemObjectives6The study is designed to conduct into four phasesPhase 1 review, farmers stocking behaviour & proportionate of proc. from farmers & millers (literature, HIES 2010 & time series data) Phase 2 relationships amongst different variables (time series data) Phase 3 effectiveness & constraint of proc. system (survey data)Phase 4 feasibility, practicality & acceptability of alternative proc. systems and of alternative methods (literature, survey in phase 3, FGD & KII) Study Phasing (Indicative) Addressing the stocking behaviour & procurement:

What are the evidences of the domestic proc. & rice price stabilization interventions?What are the stocking behaviours of farmers?What is the proportion of grain that is procured from farmers and millers? Research Questions in Phase 17Phase 1: Literature review, stocking behaviours & procurementFarmers` stocking behaviour (Research question 2)For calculating stocking behaviour (quantity & proportion of production stored), we have used HIES 2010 dataWe have calculated this by seasons, farm sizes, income quartiles, administrative divisions and surplus/deficit regions8Econometric model of farmers` stock function

Stock (change in stock) function: S=f (Xi)where S= stock (change) in stock & Xi= explanatory variablesx1= size of production (& its square)x2=different sources of acquisition (e. g. payments in kind & received)x3=pricex4=main occupation of householdx5=size of householdx6= location of household (to correlate with timing of crop in a particular location) & x6= cost of stocking (DONT have this variable in HIES 2010), etc. 9Production, disposal and stocksMarginal farms(0.05 0.49 acre)Small farms(0.50 2.49 acre)Medium & Large farms (> 2.49 acre)MeanStd. devMeanStd. devMeanStd. devBoroProduction (kg/year)596.5681.11612.31412.74411.64101.7Change in Stocks (kg/year)76.3161.0229.7458.3671.21480.2% Stocks =(Stocks/Production)*100 12.923.313.923.215.223.5Number of farms6932046546AmanProduction (kg/year)361.9445.9950.5724.22701.72282.6Change in Stocks (kg/year)21.7109.178.1244.2341.4920.0% Stocks =(Stocks/Production)*100 4.715.17.017.511.621.2Number of farms5011694504AusProduction (kg/year)354.4437.1715.8626.91490.41506.8Change in Stocks (kg/year)27.2140.238.0114.4121.8318.1% Stocks =(Stocks/Production)*100 3.813.84.913.77.716.9Number of farms119480185Table 1 : Disposal of paddy in Boro, Aman and Aus seasons by farm sizeSource: Calculated from HIES 2010Preliminary results 10Production, disposal and stocksMarginal farms(0.05 0.49 acre)Small farms(0.50 2.49 acre)Medium & Large farms (> 2.49 acre)Mean% of productionMean% of productionMean% of production1. Production (kg/year)742.21002047.01005771.91002. Given to landlord (kg/year)84.811.4207.310.1364.76.33. Paid for wages (kg/year)8.81.233.01.6163.52.84. Seed (kg/year)6.50.923.21.164.81.15. Feed (kg/year)1.90.33.80.212.30.26. Wastage (kg/year)3.10.46.50.314.00.27. Other uses (kg/year)5.20.716.90.829.80.58. Consumption (kg/year)412.355.6855.841.81531.026.59. Sold (kg/year)142.119.2658.732.22791.448.410. Change in Stocks (kg/year)77.410.4241.811.8800.413.9Number of farms8262566701Table 2 : Production and disposal of all paddy by farm sizeNote: Stocks= 1.-(sum of 2. to 9.) Source: Calculated from HIES 201011Production, disposal and stocksSurplus districts (Kg/household)Surplus districts %Deficit districts (Kg/household)Deficit districts %1. Production 2556.71002158.41002. Given to landlord 225.08.8179.58.33. Paid for wages 45.01.860.52.84. Seed 24.31.031.71.55. Feed 4.90.24.80.26. Wastage 6.00.29.10.47. Other uses 18.00.714.30.78. Consumption 897.335.1851.039.49. Sold 1060.241.5651.130.210. Stocks 275.910.8356.416.5Table 3: Production, disposal & stocks of all paddy by surplus & deficit districtsSource: Author`s calculated from HIES 2010Average stock of household in the surplus districts is less than the average stocks of household in the deficit districts Figure 1: Share as a percentage of production by Income quartile Percent of total production Stock is the lowest for lowest quartile & highest for highest quartile13Table 4: Annual production and disposal of all paddy by administrative divisionsSource: Author`s calculated from HIES 2010% of production to disposal & stocks per householdBarisalChittagongDhakaKhulnaRajshahiSylhetBangladesh1. Production 100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.02. Given to landlord 14.89.110.47.17.615.09.53. Paid for wages 2.00.32.20.71.73.21.64. Seed 3.11.71.50.80.82.01.35. Feed 0.60.50.20.20.10.10.36. Wastage 0.50.50.30.10.21.40.47. Other uses 0.70.61.70.30.40.60.88. Consumption 51.759.750.347.349.843.650.79. Sold 19.815.919.530.129.621.123.810. Stocks 6.711.513.813.410.012.911.8Number of farms267621104767212012934101Domestic procurement (Research question 3)Calculation of domestic procurement from farmers and millers Calculated total domestic procurement which is a sum of the procurement from farmers and millers (Total domestic proc. = proc. from farmers & millers)Calculated by season (Aman & Boro)14Figure 2: Procurement from farmers (Aman and Boro)15Figures indicate that the percentage of grain procured from farmers in both Boro & Aman is declining & it is sharply declined in the recent past years During 1989/90 2011/12, only 21.35% of grain was procured from farmers (Aman) During 1991 - 2012, only 20% of the grain was procured from farmers (Boro)Percentage of procured grain

Percentage of procured grainFigure 3: Procurement from millers (Aman and Boro)16Proportions of Aman procurement from millers were fluctuated Proportions of Boro procurement from the millers were rising sharply. In fact, 80% of the grain was procured from the millers. Millers are the primary source of procurement.

Percentage of procured grain (Aman)Percentage of procured grain (Boro)What is the relationship between ----Production deviations from trend & government procurements ;Production deviations from trend & government distributions;Procurement & deviations of real market prices from trend;Distributions & deviations of real market prices from trend ;Procurement prices & prevailing market prices; and Government stock & price levelResearch Questions in Phase 217Phase 2: Estimation of relationshipsTime Series Econometric Models Estimating trendIn doing this, we are estimating polynomial (2nd degree, 3rd degree) trend function

Y = production, T = time trend & n= order of polynomial Other models could also be used (I, e., exponential)

18Y=actual procurement (distribution) & Xi= explanatory variablesx1= Opening govt. stock at the start of the seasonx2= planned dist. of that seasonx3= deviation of prod. from trend x4= deviation of real (inflation adjusted) market price from average of past n years (t= 1, 2 or 3)

Prod. deviations from trend and govt. procurement; Production deviations from trend and govt. distributions; Time Series Econometric Models (contd.) 19Government stock & market price

where Pm=market price & S=government stockProcurement & market price

where Pm=market pricePp=procurement price

Data: Historical data such as total rice production, total government procurement, total government distribution, procurement price, market price, government stock for both Boro and Aman Will explore the relationships forEntire data period; Before 1992; and1992 & after.20Figure 4: Production deviation from trend and procurementResults shows that until 1999, in the low production years procurement were higherBUT later, it shows more or less similar trendr = 0.48

Quntity (000 MT) -Aman

Quntity (000 MT)- BoroHere most of the year, we found the positive correlation between good production and procurement r = 0.5721Figure 5: Production deviations from trend and public distributionPFD was low during years of low production (1997/98 -1998/99) BUT some years such as 1999/2000 and 2004/05, when prod. deviation from trend was small, distribution was relatively highr = 0.77

Quntity (000 MT)Addressing overall assessment, alternative systems, methods:

What is the farmer`s overall assessment of the proc. system?What are the overall views of millers on the effectiveness of the system?What are the other country experiences on alternative systems & farmer`s income support?What are the feasible alternative systems & alternative methods (other than proc.) that would enhance the benefits to rice farmers? Phase 3 & 422Research Questions: Table 5: Farmers selection (Non-participating farmers) (n=305)23Dhaka Division (n=165)Rajshahi Division (n=140)Tangail (n=91)Mymensingh (n=74)Dinajpur (n=75)Naogaon (n=65)LSD (12)LSD (11)Effectiveness and constraints (Questions 1 & 2)Table 6: Participating farmers (n = 181)Dhaka (n=64)Rajshahi (n=117)Tangail (n=45)Mymensingh (n=19)Dinajpur (n=56)Naogaon (n=61)LSD (12)LSD (11)Table 7: Millers sampling (n= 303)Dhaka (n=159)Rajshahi (n=144)Tangail (n=90)Mymensingh (n=69)Dinajpur (n=75)Naogaon (n=69)LSD (12)LSD (11)HuskingSemi-autoAuto HuskingSemi-autoAuto 24Table 8 : Perception of non-participating farmers Source: Author`s calculated from Field Survey, 2012-13% of total respondentsMajor issuesMymensinghTangailNaogaonDinajpurCriteria of paddy to be sold at LSD is goodStrongly Agree 0.000.000.000.00Agree10.810.003.0812.00Indifferent6.761.100.002.67Disagree 13.516.5924.6212.00Strongly Disagree2.701.107.690.00No response66.2291.2164.6273.33Procedure of selling at PC is reasonableStrongly Agree 0.000.000.000.00Agree2.702.209.231.33Indifferent8.110.004.620.00Disagree 17.579.8920.0020.00Strongly Disagree5.410.004.626.67No response66.2287.9161.5472.00Labourers/officials behave cordially with the farmersStrongly Agree 0.000.000.000.00Agree1.350.001.540.00Indifferent2.702.200.002.67Disagree 12.165.499.2329.33Strongly Disagree16.225.4929.239.33No response67.5786.8160.0058.67There is no chance of being unfairly rejected at PCStrongly Agree 0.000.000.000.00Agree0.001.100.000.00Indifferent4.052.201.542.67Disagree 16.224.407.6925.33Strongly Disagree10.814.4029.2310.67No response68.9287.9161.5461.33Overall assessment, perceptions & difficulties faced by the farmers & millers 25Table 9 : Perception of participating farmers Source: Author`s calculated from Field Survey, 2012-13MymensinghTangailNaogaonDinajpurNo chance of being unfairly rejected at PCStrongly Agree 0.000.000.000.00Agree47.3755.5614.7521.43Indifferent0.0011.114.9217.86Disagree 36.8428.8954.1048.21Strongly Disagree15.794.4422.9510.71No response0.000.003.281.79Proc. system offers price support to themStrongly Agree 5.266.670.007.14Agree52.6360.0044.2655.36Indifferent21.0511.111.6416.07Disagree 21.050.0024.5910.71Strongly Disagree0.004.4427.8710.71No response0.0017.781.640.00Proc. procedure is not time consumingStrongly Agree 0.000.003.283.57Agree21.0528.8919.6737.50Indifferent0.006.670.008.93Disagree 57.8964.4450.8244.64Strongly Disagree21.050.0026.235.36No response0.000.000.000.00No corruption in dealings at PCStrongly Agree 5.260.000.001.79Agree21.0551.1113.1114.29Indifferent5.2615.563.2816.07Disagree 57.8933.3331.1548.21Strongly Disagree5.260.0050.8216.07No response5.260.001.643.57% of total respondents26Table 11 : Perceptions of millers Source: Author`s calculated from Field Survey, 2012-13Main IssuesMymensinghTangailNaogaonDinajpurNo corruption in dealings at PCStrongly Agree 2.940.000.000.00Agree10.292.257.256.67Indifferent11.7615.7326.0920.00Disagree 22.0632.5836.2352.00Strongly Disagree52.9449.4430.4321.33Procurement system offers price support to farmersStrongly Agree 1.470.000.005.33Agree23.5322.4714.4936.00Indifferent14.7117.9811.599.33Disagree 26.4722.4743.4814.67Strongly Disagree33.8237.0830.4334.67Allotted quota for rice is reasonableStrongly Agree 7.354.494.350.00Agree25.0035.9653.6233.33Indifferent10.2920.2217.3912.00Disagree 39.7139.3321.7448.00Strongly Disagree17.650.002.906.67Timing of procurement is appropriateStrongly Agree 11.766.742.900.00Agree50.0060.6784.0684.00Indifferent5.8811.245.805.33Disagree 25.0021.355.809.33Strongly Disagree7.350.001.451.33% of total respondents27Perceptions onMymensinghTangailNaogaonDinajpurAvg. scoreRankAvg. scoreRankAvg. scoreRankAvg. scoreRankProcurement price is justified1.9992.0672.3052.156Procurement centres are at suitable location2.0381.57101.9681.8910Procedure of selling at PC is reasonable2.2272.5652.0072.077Quota allotment procedure is fair3.4033.1332.4343.074Allotted quota for rice is reasonable3.3542.9442.6533.283Timing of procurement is appropriate2.6652.4762.1962.285Transportation to PC is easy2.5961.5891.7791.998Method of payment is appropriate1.91101.6681.70101.929No corruption in dealings at PC4.1214.2913.9013.881Procurement system offers price support to the farmers3.6823.7423.9013.372Table 10 : Perceptions of millers about the procurement programmeSource: Author`s calculated from Field Survey, 2012-13Phase 4: Feasibility, practicality & acceptability of alternative methods Critical theoretical review (pointing out the existing paradox in fixing both a quantity to be procured & a procurement price) (comes from phase 1)Alternative Systems and Instruments:In the form of a matrix listing instruments along the left hand side and objectives across the top. Cells of the matrix can then be filled with plus, minus, or zero depending on the effect of each instrument on each objectiveIn doing so, literature, FGDs, KIIs & results in the different phases are being used and in under development 28Table 12. Matrix of policy, objectives, instruments and expected output29Country/Instruments Objectives Expected ImpactProducerConsumerGovt.SocietyBangladesh Domestic procurement To support the producers incomeStock for public food distribution system

Gain/lossIndia /NFCRegulating exports Disincentives for grain exports (bans on wheat and maize and non basmati rice exports) Indonesia /BULOG

Philippines/NFA--Pakistan-Thank You30Chart198.430400660995.608932257515.87781134613.0333167578000.396015840643.002977456472.71487039561006.506949371821.254245320310.89279558773.427610135611.409395973200008.3832335329000

% of grain procured from farmers during Aman season% of grain procured from farmers (Aman season)

Sheet1SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9005432382R Square0.8109781239Adjusted R Square0.8058694246Standard Error733.7099928898Observations39ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression185457003.834676785457003.8346767158.74453902270Residual3719918223.0856571538330.353666407Total38105375226.920334CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept6147.2534906653239.56803777425.659739703905661.84254189746632.66443943315661.84254189746632.6644394331X Variable 1131.525619673510.439049564212.59938645420110.3740962889152.6771430581110.3740962889152.6771430581

Aman ProductionAmanAreaProductionTrend ProductionRice Procurement% Procured(Production in 000 m tons)(Area in 000 acres)1971/7216026.746278.781972/7325810.566410.301973/7436990.096541.831974/7546187.206673.366147.25349066531975/7657333.916804.88307.34529.03131.52561967351976/7767190.346936.41308.88253.931977/7877732.077067.93427.91664.131978/7987761.917199.46208.51562.451979/8097111.237330.98190.63-219.761980/81107963.637462.51509.52501.121981/82117209.947594.04146.22-384.091982/83127603.037725.5693.38-122.531983/84137933.547857.0982.6576.451984/85147935.147988.6175.76-53.471985/86158562.138120.14138.56441.991986/87168593.848251.6622.52342.171987/88177690.008383.1948.78-693.191988/89186857.158514.7158.70-1657.571989/90199003.958646.24418.78357.711990/91209167.008777.77162.70389.231991/92219269.008909.29363.00359.711992/93229680.009040.82140.70639.181993/942314209.009419.009172.3416.00246.661994/952413824.008504.009303.870.00-799.871995/962513952.848790.339435.3941.570.47-645.061996/972614338.539551.789566.92199.882.09-15.141997/982714353.258849.909698.450.540.01-848.551998/992812762.077735.859829.970.060.00-2094.121999/002914097.3010305.989961.50234.722.28344.482000/013014109.8911248.9310093.02236.222.101155.912001/023113954.8610726.1910224.55112.041.04501.642002/033214041.0011114.9510356.0718.820.17758.882003/043314030.0011520.5910487.60143.731.251032.992004/053413047.219819.6210619.120.000.00-799.512005/063513415.0010810.0010750.6588.310.8259.352006/073613381.7710840.8710882.18162.831.50-41.312007/083712473.789662.1911013.70nil0.00-1351.512008/093813584.6311613.1711145.23163.001.40467.942009/103913992.8612207.1611276.7514.690.12930.41

Sheet3SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9525760281R Square0.9074010894Adjusted R Square0.9048984161Standard Error1552.6479396868Observations39ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1874059758.102152874059758.102152362.5727353230Residual3789196478.11070362410715.62461361Total38963256236.212855CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-1181.2805027988506.9643644889-2.33010559630.0253626397-2208.4878692099-154.0731363878-2208.4878692099-154.0731363878X Variable 1420.636629057522.090701987419.0413427920375.8766155337465.3966425813375.8766155337465.3966425813

Boro ProductionBoro(Production in 000 m tons)AreaProductionRice Procurement% ProcuredProduction deviations from trend(Area in 000 acres)1971/7211765.98-760.64Intercept-1181.28050279881972/7322103.49-340.01Coefficient420.63662905751973/7432255.6580.631974/7542285.81501.271975/7652322.28921.9023.071400.381976/7761676.621342.545.40334.081977/7872274.651763.1837.65511.481978/7981960.162183.8181.53-223.651979/8092484.602604.4565.53-119.851980/81102645.463025.09266.22-379.621981/82113146.893445.72150.69-298.831982/83123543.763866.3673.92-322.601983/84133372.614287.0045.68-914.381984/85143975.104707.6355.68-732.531985/86153703.435128.2779.42-1424.841986/87163920.705548.91114.51-1628.211987/88174730.785969.54239.06-1238.761988/89185282.266390.18302.40-1107.921989/90195969.796810.82499.25-841.031990/91206297.006357.007231.45566.50-874.451991/92216511.006804.007652.09505.50-848.091992/93226423.006586.008072.731.20-1486.731993/94236378.006772.008493.36163.90-1721.361994/95246582.006538.008914.00167.00-2376.001995/96256804.357221.029334.64417.435.78-2113.621996/97266876.067459.929755.27243.533.26-2295.351997/98277137.938137.3310175.91263.913.24-2038.581998/99288714.7410551.9010596.55604.445.73-44.651999/00299024.1811027.0111017.18599.935.449.832000/01309295.8911920.9411437.82486.624.08483.122001/02319319.3411765.5011858.45628.975.35-92.952002/03329500.9912221.8512279.09754.116.17-57.242003/04339744.8112837.2312699.73747.045.82137.501765983.843839752103492.68743252255647.27262285806.902326392322280.31230141676621.601666252274652.624957651960162.560176052484598.518940892645461.731483823146889354376133726113975100370342539207004730779528226059697892004/053410042.0313837.0613120.36931.176.73716.702005/063510047.0013975.0013541.001039.557.44434.002006/073610521.6314965.0613961.64706.384.721003.421765.98384383982103.49268743252255.64727262285.80690232642322.28031230141676.62160166622274.65262495761960.1625601762484.59851894092645.46173148383146.8893543.7613372.6113975.13703.4253920.74730.7795282.265969.7892007/083711385.9217761.7814382.271167.536.573379.512008/093811654.3217809.0514802.911195.946.723006.141765.98384383982103.49268743252255.64727262285.80690232642322.28031230141676.62160166622274.65262495761960.1625601762484.59851894092645.46173148383146.8893543.7613372.6113975.13703.4253920.74730.7795282.265969.7892009/103911631.1618058.9615223.55562.753.122835.41

Aman ProcurementYearPaddyRiceIn RiceTotal Grain1989/90238.303.80162.70242.101990/91509.5023.40363.00532.901991/9223.65125.30140.70148.951992/930.4915.6016.0016.091993/940.000.000.000.001994/95nillnillnillnill1995/960.1741.5041.6041.671996/97101.10134.00201.40235.101997/980.530.200.500.731998/990.040.000.100.041999/0015.59224.00234.70239.592000/0153.82199.40236.20253.222001/0212.64103.40112.00116.042002/030.6518.3718.8219.022003/0417.00132.00144.00149.002004/050.000.000.000.002005/060.00163.00163.00163.002006/070.00163.00163.00163.002007/080.000.000.000.002008/0914.00153.00163.00167.002009/100.0014.0015.0014.002010/11nillnillnillnill2011/120349349.66349.00

Boro ProcurementYearPaddyRiceIn RiceTotal Grain1991826.1015.80566.50841.901992792.3022.70505.50815.0019930.231.101.201.3319945.44160.50163.90165.94199525.35150.90167.00176.25199650.33383.90417.40434.231997189.30120.50243.50309.80199876.32214.30264.00290.621999150.70506.50604.40657.202000134.40512.60599.90647.002001129.80402.20486.60532.00200280.83576.40629.00657.23200397.84690.50754.10788.34200438.00722.00747.00760.00200520.00919.00931.00939.00200615.001025.001039.001040.0020076.00702.00706.00708.00200847.001137.001168.001184.00200996.001134.001196.001230.0020109.00557.00563.00566.0020110.00819.00619.00819.00201215.19278.90288.78294.09

Aman PriceAverage wholesale price of rice during aman procurement seasonProcurement PricesNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchPaddyRiceMonthJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneAverage1971/7261.62100.19616.171001.951971/721972/7388.41141.99884.071419.871972/731973/74120.56192.061205.551920.581973/741974/75206.28324.162062.833241.591974/751975/7636973537353730812679no procno procno proc1975/763671399244744153369735373537308126792197160817153195.08333333331976/7719021822187519292009208.96326.842089.623268.381976/771902187517681822190218221875192920091983166115811844.08333333331977/7823312518273327602786225.04353.632250.363536.281977/781715192921172277233125182733276027862679198320902326.51978/7925722599251827062786no procno procno proc1978/792304233124922679257225992518270627862652211722512500.58333333331979/8033753885434044214233267.90423.282679.004232.821979/802438254528403135337538854340442142333858308130013429.3333333333294.69452.752946.904527.511980/813322340334293644353733223215313532153081265229473241.83333333331980/8135373322321531353215308.09468.833080.854688.251981/8228133001313532693403329532953295334935903269332232531981/8234033295329532953349332.20509.013321.965090.101982/8336974394466249305224447445014501493049033597367144571982/8352244474450145014930361.67562.593616.655625.901983/844099418043144394447444744501466249034769391241534402.91666666671983/8444744474450146624903385.78602.783857.766027.751984/854528460849575385543955455894616263505573476951445362.83333333331984/8554395545589461626350442.04664.394420.356643.921985/865224517151985358503747954930490350375010439443144947.5833333333468.83704.584688.257045.771986/874555471551985600557355735841586861626323527849575470.251985/8650374795493049035037455.43683.154554.306831.451987/885653616268597100688668596939702074487475543955456615.4166666667468.83709.944688.257099.351988/895948645766446296578758946135637761095858549258416069.83333333331986/8755735573584158686162468.83709.944688.257099.351989/906216659168057368715469120000522452786444495.62760.844956.157608.361990/9157876269675268326511632300000064121987/8868866859693970207448535.80825.135358.008251.321991/921988/8957875894613563776109562.59865.325625.908653.171992/931989/90589.38905.505893.809055.021993/941990/910.000.005900.009070.501994/951991/920.001010.006560.0010100.001995/961992/931996/971993/941997/981994/951998/991995/961999/001243124312391280119511881157120712271236128611791223.33333333331996/972000/011103105111041240112911851130116611781213117311031147.91666666671997/982001/021107118611291169114312081252127112751269121012091202.33333333331998/991420.981445.801443.99354838711449.1357142857-760.001200.0024.822002/031228123413001343134813401395139114001393126012731325.416666666719981999/00-1131.251140.45161290321178.92142857141207.8387096774800.001250.009.202003/041210129013451308130212991334135613611308130712621306.833333333319992000/01-1130.801147.21156.31428571431180.0580645161800.001250.0016.402004/051277135013601470144915231585162815881561142314691473.583333333320002001/02-1168.061207.11612903231258.10714285711269.4709677419800.001250.0039.052005/061557154915441547157915901594161116051607158215931579.833333333320012002/03--1304.35483870971368.99285714291360.6064516129840.001280.0064.642006/071561158415871602162616451692175517651886186718311700.083333333320022003/041295.80666666671279.811283.47741935481296.1142857143-840.001280.00-16.0020032004/051517.43333333331588.681678.0472686681700.6741253698-860.001310.0071.2420042005/061559.49677419361616.001633.47096774191651.03571428571655.5032258064925.001400.0056.5020052006/07-1670.111686.03225806451680.5059523811928.99462365591000.001600.0015.9220062007/082345.68333333332448.922873.30645161292657.0632183908-1200.002000.00103.2420072008/092782.45679466232631.502488.03678467152164.00667880792154.01024922351600.002600.00-150.9520082009/102060.51850248522235.462506.08047629772631.30324074072610.3776515381400.002200.00174.9520092010/113109.02601693883170.823288.37079752073317.06618735963208.04235644243671399244744153369735373537308126792197160817153195.08333333331902187517681822190218221875192920091983166115811844.08333333331715192921172277233125182733276027862679198320902326.52304233124922679257225992518270627862652211722512500.58333333332438254528403135337538854340442142333858308130013429.33333333333322340334293644353733223215313532153081265229473241.8333333333281330013135326934033295329532953349359032693322325336974394466249305224447445014501493049033597367144574099418043144394447444744501466249034769391241534402.91666666674528460849575385543955455894616263505573476951445362.83333333335224517151985358503747954930490350375010439443144947.58333333334555471551985600557355735841586861626323527849575470.255653616268597100688668596939702074487475543955456615.41666666675948645766446296578758946135637761095858549258416069.833333333362166591680573687154691200005224527864445787626967526832651163230000006412

Boro PriceAverage wholesale price of rice during Boro procurement seasonProcurement PricesAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberPaddyRice1971/7219721972/7319731973/7419741974/7519751975/7619761976/771977198.246310.7641977/781978225.036353.6281978/791979243.789375.061979/801980294.69442.0351981308.085468.8251982332.196509.011983361.665562.591984385.776602.7751985442.035664.3921986455.43683.145JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember468.825709.9351987535.8768.873199919-4-9930-9-991443.99354838711449.13571428571442.69032258061418.641242.63225806451197.11333333331200.7354838711177.21225.92666666671182.7354838711144.23333333331131.25161290321988535.8825.132200020-4-007-11-001140.45161290321178.92142857141207.83870967741220.16666666671187.0645161291420.62666666671148.49677419361110.25806451611144.11150.74666666671144.221130.81989562.59866.46897200120-04-0131-7-011147.21156.31428571431180.05806451611213.63333333331165.10967741941121.03333333331104.50967741941065.22580645161114.441121.20645161291186.361168.0645161291990590907.5200225-4-0231-8-021207.11612903231258.10714285711269.47096774191278.06666666671233.34193548391190.25333333331231.37419354841252.47096774191298.561271.50967741941295.59333333331239.25161290321991643990200320-4-0331-08-031304.35483870971368.99285714291360.60645161291336.50666666671236.09032258061228.441256.47741935481241.09677419361279.541241.03870967741295.80666666671279.80645161291992200425-4-0430-09-041283.47741935481296.11428571431329.47741935481330.76666666671310.29032258061280.113333333312961351.12903225811396.72666666671508.81517.43333333331588.67741935481993200525-4-0531-10-051678.0472686681700.67412536981655.43870967741618.481552.05806451611521.63320296811593.70527948231627.28387096771621.041597.41290322581559.496774193616161994200620-4-0615-11-061633.47096774191651.03571428571655.50322580641662.35333333331636.43225806451629166216361622.82685185181616.78046594981664.34444444441670.10752688171995200701-05-0731-10-071686.03225806451680.5059523811928.99462365591993.61992.72903225811960.14444444441993.65591397852152.69354838712175.0052194.33333333332345.68333333332448.91935483871996200816-04-0810-11-082873.30645161292657.06321839082986.2526881723209.88888888892976.36075268822990.16666666673202.73420013823194.76767266053071.93757509743008.17745161932782.45679466232631.50192468651997200901-05-0915-09-092488.03678467152164.00667880792154.01024922351924.16966742591922.35469602961926.9670322271919.17576029111904.11488308581915.52210598042058.94557490972060.51850248522235.46389781071998201001-05-1031-10-102506.08047629772631.30324074072610.3776515382589.04876513742600.03830760772685.55091845292845.56017124472470.06666666672515.26666666673160.56809745553109.02601693883170.819834492919991418.641242.631197.111200.741177.201225.93--825130020001220.171187.061420.631148.501110.261144.101150.751144.22825130020011213.631165.111121.031104.51----825130020021278.071233.341190.251231.371252.47---8401325WHOLESALE PRICE OF BORO PADDY BY MONTHS FROM 1975 TO 199020031336.511236.091228.441256.481241.10---8401325Taka/metric ton)20041330.771310.291280.111296.001351.131396.73--8401325Months197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199020051618.481552.061521.631593.711627.281621.041597.41-925145020061662.351636.431629.001662.001636.001622.831616.781664.349751550January00000000000000002007-1992.731960.141993.662152.692175.012194.33-11251800February000000000000000020083209.892976.362990.173202.733194.773071.943008.182782.4618002800March00000000000000002009-1922.351926.971919.181904.111915.52--14002200April31351447190221432652318827334233369744214287455555464903586855192010-2600.042685.552845.562470.072515.273160.57-17002800May2974152719582063284030012760361737244581401945555224471551445600June3188150021432117332229202733359039654421404647965439514455195948July3135158123042090380527862786351039384957418051715626541255460August2626166122512117380528132760399243945144436752516082568058940September2518168823582331391228402947471505358463554926591618959750October2117179523852358028130463505385059216511618959480November1661179500027860005198065370602858940December0000000000000656400Average2669162421852174338928942786404239444933425652855860564757245689

Month-wise closing stockMonth-wise Public Closing Stock of Rice(000 m. tons)Month1976/771977/781978/791979/801980/811981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09July819.00480.00615.00426.001059.001270.00705.00761.00752.001065.00954.001079.001494.001056.00439438.31755.82655.99630.65659.67679.8061.10690.00769.70600.70989.20August776.00617.00601.00655.001259.001240.00796.00819.00667.001038.00928.00948.001376.001276.00470432.20855.46744.98618.95707.08677.8069.00745.00818.20609.201102.10September716.00742.00612.00906.001331.001364.00773.00811.00536.001085.001094.00852.001153.001410.00453375.20807.36740.17607.57680.90650.60100.40762.00757.00593.101168.10October574.00674.00727.00788.001350.001296.00656.00679.00595.001027.00913.00952.00981.001455.00374321.91722.46785.74591.02637.75618.00162.20630.00608.70587.701246.60November460.00634.00891.00772.001326.001128.00659.00506.00744.00910.00906.001208.001155.001399.00336299.22653.41737.90557.49479.44548.30166.10577.00584.10571.701177.90December471.00828.00925.00826.001322.001001.00814.00455.00793.00885.00790.001196.001381.001430.00270287.61555.05715.69515.14347.00602.0079.00510.00614.40478.901076.40January559.00888.00869.00759.001388.00906.00845.00585.00837.00824.00597.001151.001236.001331.00250341.29654.34740.39495.75325.00580.9087.60430.00625.00405.701115.30February568.00834.00787.00619.001350.00695.00752.00521.00936.00723.00452.001199.001078.001177.00223383.89670.31678.56380.13277.00547.20115.10417.00610.30348.501113.10March479.00764.00618.00688.001260.00647.00607.00567.00930.00673.00357.001055.00965.00938.00137398.17637.49609.43324.64216.00487.50173.70370.00510.10324.90900.80April377.00724.00493.00618.001266.00574.00497.00554.001095.00784.00387.001074.00826.00842.00100445.46516.63462.62245.57132.00417.00110.30287.00195.30232.70751.20May376.00748.00391.00695.001165.00495.00522.00775.001023.00837.00471.001195.00960.00951.00157665.92504.93418.40270.26264.00533.0068.70422.00252.80565.50751.70June382.00678.00212.00791.001249.00616.00611.00800.001017.00976.00751.001417.00962.001148.00352694.62562.26421.59499.83525.00723.10162.80568.00436.10824.80929.80Yearly total6557.008611.007741.008543.0015325.0011232.008237.007833.009925.0010827.008600.0013326.0013567.0014413.003561.005083.817895.517711.465736.995250.847065.201356.006408.006781.706143.4012322.20Monthly average546.42717.58645.08711.921277.08936.00686.42652.75827.08902.25716.671110.501130.581201.08296.75423.65657.96642.62478.08437.57588.80113.00534.00565.10512.001026.80

DistributionMonthly distribution of Rice from Public StockMonth1977/781978/791979/801980/811981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/10July66.0046.0067.0041.0041.0038.0024.0039.0024.0024.0041.0021.0045.0013.0014.0017.2811.2312.4912.1618.8243.3513.9013.5029.3027.6618.63August53.0051.0067.0040.0035.0042.0021.0051.0022.0029.0066.0034.0049.0015.0045.0046.6711.6511.1916.9822.4849.5043.50118.1051.5075.94135.99September54.0050.0066.0047.0060.0066.0052.0062.0025.0043.0069.0091.0036.0027.0066.0058.5913.7210.9725.5926.8581.4996.50146.50108.40180.9942.08October58.0058.0070.0046.00116.0078.0067.0045.0066.00100.0067.0058.0037.0080.0054.0087.2853.0217.9042.3032.23145.60174.90203.6085.70179.4025.38November50.0045.0060.0038.0072.0040.0031.0041.0042.0033.0044.0047.0031.0038.0050.0068.8553.6133.06133.0669.31146.8052.4044.4087.60144.34137.51December34.0043.0047.0036.0070.0024.0023.0038.0016.0011.0030.0054.0042.0065.0038.0030.9766.9850.82131.0432.7751.9267.4072.20144.50125.4943.23January35.0044.0052.0031.0054.0037.0030.0034.0016.0013.0025.0051.0050.0021.0018.00116.8489.7564.3333.6173.2968.8486.6042.90139.6049.97120.93February44.0038.0055.0039.0057.0036.0033.0021.0018.0021.0037.0057.0052.0026.0036.0038.86108.57157.7655.3140.9492.6983.0033.6097.7067.05228.19March53.0049.0066.0056.0067.0040.0046.0021.0032.0055.0038.0074.00103.0092.0040.0061.12125.2669.0160.5258.95150.2186.8099.7074.20212.64218.93April57.0044.0060.0052.00101.0035.0078.0018.0051.0081.0025.0092.00104.0092.0038.00126.61145.4978.3684.9270.1888.9383.40313.70158.10148.61157.18May53.0047.0048.0050.0060.0033.0057.0017.0043.0046.0012.0063.0067.0032.0018.0084.85100.9850.4761.2959.1444.1087.1073.0051.10238.4149.95June50.0057.0044.0041.0038.0027.0041.0013.0018.0039.0013.0050.0059.0028.00113.00137.75203.4491.48104.05122.96138.90132.90126.6053.00306.57126.54Yearly total607572702517771496503400373495467692675529.00530.00875.67983.70647.84760.84627.911102.311008.401287.801080.701757.051304.53

RQ_3Aman SeasonDetailed CalculationsCalculated as a % of total grainYear% of grain procured from farmers during Aman seasonTotal GrainPaddy% procured from farmers1989/9098242.10238.3098.431990/9196532.90509.5095.611991/9216148.9523.6515.881992/93316.090.493.031993/9400.000.000.001994/950nillnill0.001995/96041.670.170.401996/9743235.10101.1043.001997/98730.730.5372.711998/991000.040.04100.001999/007239.5915.596.512000/0121253.2253.8221.252001/0211116.0412.6410.892002/03319.020.653.432003/0411149.0017.0011.412004/0500.000.000.002005/060163.000.000.002006/070163.000.000.002007/0800.000.000.002008/098167.0014.008.382009/10014.000.000.002010/110nillnill0.002011/120349.000.000.0021.35Boro SeasonYear% of grain procured from farmers during Boro seasonTotal GrainPaddy% procured from farmersCalculated as a % of total grain199198841.90826.1098.12199297815.00792.3097.211993171.330.2317.3619943165.945.443.28199514176.2525.3514.38199612434.2350.3311.59199761309.80189.3061.10199826290.6276.3226.26199923657.20150.7022.93200021647.00134.4020.77200124532.00129.8024.40200212657.2380.8312.30200312788.3497.8412.4120045760.0038.005.0020052939.0020.002.13200611040.0015.001.4420071708.006.000.85200841184.0047.003.97200981230.0096.007.8020102566.009.001.5920110819.000.000.0020125294.0915.195.1720

RQ_3

% of grain procured from farmers during Aman season% of grain procured from farmers during Aman season

Sheet4

% of grain procured from farmers during Boro season

RQ_5

RQ_6Aman SeasonDetailed CalculationsYear% of grain procured from millersTotal GrainRice% procured from millers1989/902242.103.801.571990/914532.9023.404.391991/9284148.95125.3084.121992/939716.0915.6096.971993/9400.000.000.001994/950nillnill0.001995/9610041.6741.5099.601996/9757235.10134.0057.001997/98270.730.2027.291998/9900.040.000.001999/0093239.59224.0093.492000/0179253.22199.4078.752001/0289116.04103.4089.112002/039719.0218.3796.572003/0489149.00132.0088.592004/0500.000.000.002005/06100163.00163.00100.002006/07100163.00163.00100.002007/0800.000.000.002008/0992167.00153.0091.622009/1010014.0014.00100.002010/110nillnill0.002011/12100349.00349.00100.0057Boro SeasonYear% procured from millersTotal GrainRice% procured from millers19912841.9015.801.8819923815.0022.702.791993831.331.1082.64199497165.94160.5096.72199586176.25150.9085.62199688434.23383.9088.41199739309.80120.5038.90199874290.62214.3073.74199977657.20506.5077.07200079647.00512.6079.23200176532.00402.2075.60200288657.23576.4087.70200388788.34690.5087.59200495760.00722.0095.00200598939.00919.0097.872006991040.001025.0098.56200799708.00702.0099.152008961184.001137.0096.032009921230.001134.0092.20201098566.00557.0098.412011100819.00819.00100.00201295294.09278.9094.8380

RQ_6

% of grain procured from millers% of grain procured from millers

RQ_7

% procured from millers% procured from millers during the Boro season

RQ_8Aman SeasonBoroActual productionLinear trend productionProd Deviations from trendProcurementActual productionLinear trend productionProd Deviations from trendProcurement1975/767333.916804.8815890328529.03307.3441975/762322.28921.901400.3823.071976/777190.346936.4072087063253.93308.8781976/771676.621342.54334.085.401977/787732.0657067.9328283798664.13427.9141977/782274.651763.18511.4837.651978/797761.9057199.4584480534562.45208.5060.48211728671978/791960.162183.81-223.6581.531979/807111.2297330.9840677269-219.76190.6321979/802484.602604.45-119.8565.530.57883072191980/817963.6304812857462.5096874004501.12509.5171980/812645.463025.09-379.62266.221981/827209.9437594.0353070739-384.09146.2191981/823146.893445.72-298.83150.691982/837603.0267725.5609267474-122.5393.381982/833543.763866.36-322.6073.921983/847933.5387857.086546420976.4582.6521983/843372.614287.00-914.3845.681984/857935.1447988.6121660944-53.4775.7551984/853975.104707.63-732.5355.681985/868562.1258120.137785768441.99138.5551985/863703.435128.27-1424.8479.421986/878593.8358251.6634054415342.1722.521986/873920.705548.91-1628.21114.511987/8876908383.189025115-693.1948.7751987/884730.785969.54-1238.76239.061988/896857.1458514.7146447885-1657.5758.7031988/895282.266390.18-1107.92302.401989/909003.958646.240264462357.71418.7771989/905969.796810.82-841.03499.251990/9191678777.7658841355389.23162.71990/916357.007231.45-874.45566.501991/9292698909.291503809359.713631991/926804.007652.09-848.09505.501992/9396809040.8171234825639.18140.71992/936586.008072.73-1486.731.201993/9494199172.342743156246.66161993/946772.008493.36-1721.36163.901994/9585049303.8683628296-799.8701994/956538.008914.00-2376.00167.001995/968790.339435.3939825031-645.0641.5721995/967221.029334.64-2113.62417.431996/979551.789566.9196021766-15.14199.8831996/977459.929755.27-2295.35243.531997/988849.99698.4452218501-848.550.5421997/988137.3310175.91-2038.58263.911998/997735.859829.9708415236-2094.120.061998/9910551.9010596.55-44.65604.441999/0010305.989961.4964611971344.48234.7181999/0011027.0111017.189.83599.932000/0111248.9310093.02208087061155.91236.2192000/0111920.9411437.82483.12486.622001/0210726.1910224.5477005441501.64112.0382001/0211765.5011858.45-92.95628.972002/0311114.9510356.0733202177758.8818.8192002/0312221.8512279.09-57.24754.112003/0411520.5910487.59893989121032.99143.7262003/0412837.2312699.73137.50747.042004/059819.61710619.1245595647-799.510.0022004/0513837.0613120.36716.70931.172005/061081010750.650179238259.3588.3112005/0613975.0013541.00434.001039.552006/0710840.8710882.1757989117-41.31162.832006/0714965.0613961.641003.42706.382007/089662.19111013.7014185852-1351.5102007/0817761.7814382.273379.511167.532008/0911613.16911145.2270382587467.94162.9972008/0917809.0514802.913006.141195.942009/1012207.16211276.7526579322930.4114.692009/1018058.9615223.552835.41562.75

RQ_8

Prod Deviations from trendProcurement

Prod Deviations from trendProcurement

AmanYearProductionRice Procurement1995/968790.3341.571996/979551.78199.881997/988849.900.54R2 =0.38456911781998/997735.850.061999/0010305.98234.722000/0111248.93236.222001/0210726.19112.042002/0311114.9518.822003/0411520.59143.732004/059819.620.002005/0610810.0088.312006/0710840.87162.832007/089662.190.002008/0911613.17163.002009/1012207.1614.69YearProductionRice Procurement1995/967221.02417.431996/977459.92243.531997/988137.33263.91R2 =0.78217258211998/9910551.90604.441999/0011027.01599.932000/0111920.94486.622001/0211765.50628.972002/0312221.85754.112003/0412837.23747.042004/0513837.06931.172005/0613975.001039.552006/0714965.06706.382007/0817761.781167.532008/0917809.051195.942009/1018058.96562.75

ProductionRice Procurement

ProductionRice Procurement

Dev from trendDistribution1997/98-1443.5618518024529-848.5452218501-2038.5784817547-1443.56185180241998/99-1069.38297616795300.76996066-2094.1208415236-44.6451108122-1069.38297616791999/00177.1558994666875.674344.48353880299.8282601302177.15589946662000/01819.514775101983.6961155.9079191294483.1216310727819.5147751012001/02204.3436507355647.84501.6422994559-92.9549979848204.34365073552002/03350.81752637760.835758.8766797823-57.2416270424350.817526372003/04585.2464020045627.9071032.9910601088137.5017439001585.24640200452004/05-41.40622236111102.309-799.5075595647716.6951148425-41.40622236112005/06246.67415327341008.459.3498207618433.998485785246.67415327342006/07481.05552890791287.8-41.30579891171003.4168567275481.05552890792007/081013.99790454241080.7-1351.51041858523379.50622766991013.99790454242008/091737.04078017681757.054467.94196174133006.13959861241737.04078017682009/101882.91165581131304.534930.40934206782835.41396955491882.9116558113

Dev from trendDistribution

Chart198.123292552697.214723926417.35537190083.27829335914.382978723411.590631692961.103938024526.261096965122.930614729220.77279752724.398496240612.298586491812.410888702852.12992545261.44230769230.84745762713.96959459467.80487804881.590106007105.1653728582

% of grain procured from farmers during Boro season% of grain procured from farmers (Boro season)

Sheet1SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9005432382R Square0.8109781239Adjusted R Square0.8058694246Standard Error733.7099928898Observations39ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression185457003.834676785457003.8346767158.74453902270Residual3719918223.0856571538330.353666407Total38105375226.920334CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept6147.2534906653239.56803777425.659739703905661.84254189746632.66443943315661.84254189746632.6644394331X Variable 1131.525619673510.439049564212.59938645420110.3740962889152.6771430581110.3740962889152.6771430581

Aman ProductionAmanAreaProductionTrend ProductionRice Procurement% Procured(Production in 000 m tons)(Area in 000 acres)1971/7216026.746278.781972/7325810.566410.301973/7436990.096541.831974/7546187.206673.366147.25349066531975/7657333.916804.88307.34529.03131.52561967351976/7767190.346936.41308.88253.931977/7877732.077067.93427.91664.131978/7987761.917199.46208.51562.451979/8097111.237330.98190.63-219.761980/81107963.637462.51509.52501.121981/82117209.947594.04146.22-384.091982/83127603.037725.5693.38-122.531983/84137933.547857.0982.6576.451984/85147935.147988.6175.76-53.471985/86158562.138120.14138.56441.991986/87168593.848251.6622.52342.171987/88177690.008383.1948.78-693.191988/89186857.158514.7158.70-1657.571989/90199003.958646.24418.78357.711990/91209167.008777.77162.70389.231991/92219269.008909.29363.00359.711992/93229680.009040.82140.70639.181993/942314209.009419.009172.3416.00246.661994/952413824.008504.009303.870.00-799.871995/962513952.848790.339435.3941.570.47-645.061996/972614338.539551.789566.92199.882.09-15.141997/982714353.258849.909698.450.540.01-848.551998/992812762.077735.859829.970.060.00-2094.121999/002914097.3010305.989961.50234.722.28344.482000/013014109.8911248.9310093.02236.222.101155.912001/023113954.8610726.1910224.55112.041.04501.642002/033214041.0011114.9510356.0718.820.17758.882003/043314030.0011520.5910487.60143.731.251032.992004/053413047.219819.6210619.120.000.00-799.512005/063513415.0010810.0010750.6588.310.8259.352006/073613381.7710840.8710882.18162.831.50-41.312007/083712473.789662.1911013.70nil0.00-1351.512008/093813584.6311613.1711145.23163.001.40467.942009/103913992.8612207.1611276.7514.690.12930.41

Sheet3SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9525760281R Square0.9074010894Adjusted R Square0.9048984161Standard Error1552.6479396868Observations39ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1874059758.102152874059758.102152362.5727353230Residual3789196478.11070362410715.62461361Total38963256236.212855CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-1181.2805027988506.9643644889-2.33010559630.0253626397-2208.4878692099-154.0731363878-2208.4878692099-154.0731363878X Variable 1420.636629057522.090701987419.0413427920375.8766155337465.3966425813375.8766155337465.3966425813

Boro ProductionBoro(Production in 000 m tons)AreaProductionRice Procurement% ProcuredProduction deviations from trend(Area in 000 acres)1971/7211765.98-760.64Intercept-1181.28050279881972/7322103.49-340.01Coefficient420.63662905751973/7432255.6580.631974/7542285.81501.271975/7652322.28921.9023.071400.381976/7761676.621342.545.40334.081977/7872274.651763.1837.65511.481978/7981960.162183.8181.53-223.651979/8092484.602604.4565.53-119.851980/81102645.463025.09266.22-379.621981/82113146.893445.72150.69-298.831982/83123543.763866.3673.92-322.601983/84133372.614287.0045.68-914.381984/85143975.104707.6355.68-732.531985/86153703.435128.2779.42-1424.841986/87163920.705548.91114.51-1628.211987/88174730.785969.54239.06-1238.761988/89185282.266390.18302.40-1107.921989/90195969.796810.82499.25-841.031990/91206297.006357.007231.45566.50-874.451991/92216511.006804.007652.09505.50-848.091992/93226423.006586.008072.731.20-1486.731993/94236378.006772.008493.36163.90-1721.361994/95246582.006538.008914.00167.00-2376.001995/96256804.357221.029334.64417.435.78-2113.621996/97266876.067459.929755.27243.533.26-2295.351997/98277137.938137.3310175.91263.913.24-2038.581998/99288714.7410551.9010596.55604.445.73-44.651999/00299024.1811027.0111017.18599.935.449.832000/01309295.8911920.9411437.82486.624.08483.122001/02319319.3411765.5011858.45628.975.35-92.952002/03329500.9912221.8512279.09754.116.17-57.242003/04339744.8112837.2312699.73747.045.82137.501765983.843839752103492.68743252255647.27262285806.902326392322280.31230141676621.601666252274652.624957651960162.560176052484598.518940892645461.731483823146889354376133726113975100370342539207004730779528226059697892004/053410042.0313837.0613120.36931.176.73716.702005/063510047.0013975.0013541.001039.557.44434.002006/073610521.6314965.0613961.64706.384.721003.421765.98384383982103.49268743252255.64727262285.80690232642322.28031230141676.62160166622274.65262495761960.1625601762484.59851894092645.46173148383146.8893543.7613372.6113975.13703.4253920.74730.7795282.265969.7892007/083711385.9217761.7814382.271167.536.573379.512008/093811654.3217809.0514802.911195.946.723006.141765.98384383982103.49268743252255.64727262285.80690232642322.28031230141676.62160166622274.65262495761960.1625601762484.59851894092645.46173148383146.8893543.7613372.6113975.13703.4253920.74730.7795282.265969.7892009/103911631.1618058.9615223.55562.753.122835.41

Aman ProcurementYearPaddyRiceIn RiceTotal Grain1989/90238.303.80162.70242.101990/91509.5023.40363.00532.901991/9223.65125.30140.70148.951992/930.4915.6016.0016.091993/940.000.000.000.001994/95nillnillnillnill1995/960.1741.5041.6041.671996/97101.10134.00201.40235.101997/980.530.200.500.731998/990.040.000.100.041999/0015.59224.00234.70239.592000/0153.82199.40236.20253.222001/0212.64103.40112.00116.042002/030.6518.3718.8219.022003/0417.00132.00144.00149.002004/050.000.000.000.002005/060.00163.00163.00163.002006/070.00163.00163.00163.002007/080.000.000.000.002008/0914.00153.00163.00167.002009/100.0014.0015.0014.002010/11nillnillnillnill2011/120349349.66349.00

Boro ProcurementYearPaddyRiceIn RiceTotal Grain1991826.1015.80566.50841.901992792.3022.70505.50815.0019930.231.101.201.3319945.44160.50163.90165.94199525.35150.90167.00176.25199650.33383.90417.40434.231997189.30120.50243.50309.80199876.32214.30264.00290.621999150.70506.50604.40657.202000134.40512.60599.90647.002001129.80402.20486.60532.00200280.83576.40629.00657.23200397.84690.50754.10788.34200438.00722.00747.00760.00200520.00919.00931.00939.00200615.001025.001039.001040.0020076.00702.00706.00708.00200847.001137.001168.001184.00200996.001134.001196.001230.0020109.00557.00563.00566.0020110.00819.00619.00819.00201215.19278.90288.78294.09

Aman PriceAverage wholesale price of rice during aman procurement seasonProcurement PricesNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchPaddyRiceMonthJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneAverage1971/7261.62100.19616.171001.951971/721972/7388.41141.99884.071419.871972/731973/74120.56192.061205.551920.581973/741974/75206.28324.162062.833241.591974/751975/7636973537353730812679no procno procno proc1975/763671399244744153369735373537308126792197160817153195.08333333331976/7719021822187519292009208.96326.842089.623268.381976/771902187517681822190218221875192920091983166115811844.08333333331977/7823312518273327602786225.04353.632250.363536.281977/781715192921172277233125182733276027862679198320902326.51978/7925722599251827062786no procno procno proc1978/792304233124922679257225992518270627862652211722512500.58333333331979/8033753885434044214233267.90423.282679.004232.821979/802438254528403135337538854340442142333858308130013429.3333333333294.69452.752946.904527.511980/813322340334293644353733223215313532153081265229473241.83333333331980/8135373322321531353215308.09468.833080.854688.251981/8228133001313532693403329532953295334935903269332232531981/8234033295329532953349332.20509.013321.965090.101982/8336974394466249305224447445014501493049033597367144571982/8352244474450145014930361.67562.593616.655625.901983/844099418043144394447444744501466249034769391241534402.91666666671983/8444744474450146624903385.78602.783857.766027.751984/854528460849575385543955455894616263505573476951445362.83333333331984/8554395545589461626350442.04664.394420.356643.921985/865224517151985358503747954930490350375010439443144947.5833333333468.83704.584688.257045.771986/874555471551985600557355735841586861626323527849575470.251985/8650374795493049035037455.43683.154554.306831.451987/885653616268597100688668596939702074487475543955456615.4166666667468.83709.944688.257099.351988/895948645766446296578758946135637761095858549258416069.83333333331986/8755735573584158686162468.83709.944688.257099.351989/906216659168057368715469120000522452786444495.62760.844956.157608.361990/9157876269675268326511632300000064121987/8868866859693970207448535.80825.135358.008251.321991/921988/8957875894613563776109562.59865.325625.908653.171992/931989/90589.38905.505893.809055.021993/941990/910.000.005900.009070.501994/951991/920.001010.006560.0010100.001995/961992/931996/971993/941997/981994/951998/991995/961999/001243124312391280119511881157120712271236128611791223.33333333331996/972000/011103105111041240112911851130116611781213117311031147.91666666671997/982001/021107118611291169114312081252127112751269121012091202.33333333331998/991420.981445.801443.99354838711449.1357142857-760.001200.0024.822002/031228123413001343134813401395139114001393126012731325.416666666719981999/00-1131.251140.45161290321178.92142857141207.8387096774800.001250.009.202003/041210129013451308130212991334135613611308130712621306.833333333319992000/01-1130.801147.21156.31428571431180.0580645161800.001250.0016.402004/051277135013601470144915231585162815881561142314691473.583333333320002001/02-1168.061207.11612903231258.10714285711269.4709677419800.001250.0039.052005/061557154915441547157915901594161116051607158215931579.833333333320012002/03--1304.35483870971368.99285714291360.6064516129840.001280.0064.642006/071561158415871602162616451692175517651886186718311700.083333333320022003/041295.80666666671279.811283.47741935481296.1142857143-840.001280.00-16.0020032004/051517.43333333331588.681678.0472686681700.6741253698-860.001310.0071.2420042005/061559.49677419361616.001633.47096774191651.03571428571655.5032258064925.001400.0056.5020052006/07-1670.111686.03225806451680.5059523811928.99462365591000.001600.0015.9220062007/082345.68333333332448.922873.30645161292657.0632183908-1200.002000.00103.2420072008/092782.45679466232631.502488.03678467152164.00667880792154.01024922351600.002600.00-150.9520082009/102060.51850248522235.462506.08047629772631.30324074072610.3776515381400.002200.00174.9520092010/113109.02601693883170.823288.37079752073317.06618735963208.04235644243671399244744153369735373537308126792197160817153195.08333333331902187517681822190218221875192920091983166115811844.08333333331715192921172277233125182733276027862679198320902326.52304233124922679257225992518270627862652211722512500.58333333332438254528403135337538854340442142333858308130013429.33333333333322340334293644353733223215313532153081265229473241.8333333333281330013135326934033295329532953349359032693322325336974394466249305224447445014501493049033597367144574099418043144394447444744501466249034769391241534402.91666666674528460849575385543955455894616263505573476951445362.83333333335224517151985358503747954930490350375010439443144947.58333333334555471551985600557355735841586861626323527849575470.255653616268597100688668596939702074487475543955456615.41666666675948645766446296578758946135637761095858549258416069.833333333362166591680573687154691200005224527864445787626967526832651163230000006412

Boro PriceAverage wholesale price of rice during Boro procurement seasonProcurement PricesAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberPaddyRice1971/7219721972/7319731973/7419741974/7519751975/7619761976/771977198.246310.7641977/781978225.036353.6281978/791979243.789375.061979/801980294.69442.0351981308.085468.8251982332.196509.011983361.665562.591984385.776602.7751985442.035664.3921986455.43683.145JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember468.825709.9351987535.8768.873199919-4-9930-9-991443.99354838711449.13571428571442.69032258061418.641242.63225806451197.11333333331200.7354838711177.21225.92666666671182.7354838711144.23333333331131.25161290321988535.8825.132200020-4-007-11-001140.45161290321178.92142857141207.83870967741220.16666666671187.0645161291420.62666666671148.49677419361110.25806451611144.11150.74666666671144.221130.81989562.59866.46897200120-04-0131-7-011147.21156.31428571431180.05806451611213.63333333331165.10967741941121.03333333331104.50967741941065.22580645161114.441121.20645161291186.361168.0645161291990590907.5200225-4-0231-8-021207.11612903231258.10714285711269.47096774191278.06666666671233.34193548391190.25333333331231.37419354841252.47096774191298.561271.50967741941295.59333333331239.25161290321991643990200320-4-0331-08-031304.35483870971368.99285714291360.60645161291336.50666666671236.09032258061228.441256.47741935481241.09677419361279.541241.03870967741295.80666666671279.80645161291992200425-4-0430-09-041283.47741935481296.11428571431329.47741935481330.76666666671310.29032258061280.113333333312961351.12903225811396.72666666671508.81517.43333333331588.67741935481993200525-4-0531-10-051678.0472686681700.67412536981655.43870967741618.481552.05806451611521.63320296811593.70527948231627.28387096771621.041597.41290322581559.496774193616161994200620-4-0615-11-061633.47096774191651.03571428571655.50322580641662.35333333331636.43225806451629166216361622.82685185181616.78046594981664.34444444441670.10752688171995200701-05-0731-10-071686.03225806451680.5059523811928.99462365591993.61992.72903225811960.14444444441993.65591397852152.69354838712175.0052194.33333333332345.68333333332448.91935483871996200816-04-0810-11-082873.30645161292657.06321839082986.2526881723209.88888888892976.36075268822990.16666666673202.73420013823194.76767266053071.93757509743008.17745161932782.45679466232631.50192468651997200901-05-0915-09-092488.03678467152164.00667880792154.01024922351924.16966742591922.35469602961926.9670322271919.17576029111904.11488308581915.52210598042058.94557490972060.51850248522235.46389781071998201001-05-1031-10-102506.08047629772631.30324074072610.3776515382589.04876513742600.03830760772685.55091845292845.56017124472470.06666666672515.26666666673160.56809745553109.02601693883170.819834492919991418.641242.631197.111200.741177.201225.93--825130020001220.171187.061420.631148.501110.261144.101150.751144.22825130020011213.631165.111121.031104.51----825130020021278.071233.341190.251231.371252.47---8401325WHOLESALE PRICE OF BORO PADDY BY MONTHS FROM 1975 TO 199020031336.511236.091228.441256.481241.10---8401325Taka/metric ton)20041330.771310.291280.111296.001351.131396.73--8401325Months197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199020051618.481552.061521.631593.711627.281621.041597.41-925145020061662.351636.431629.001662.001636.001622.831616.781664.349751550January00000000000000002007-1992.731960.141993.662152.692175.012194.33-11251800February000000000000000020083209.892976.362990.173202.733194.773071.943008.182782.4618002800March00000000000000002009-1922.351926.971919.181904.111915.52--14002200April31351447190221432652318827334233369744214287455555464903586855192010-2600.042685.552845.562470.072515.273160.57-17002800May2974152719582063284030012760361737244581401945555224471551445600June3188150021432117332229202733359039654421404647965439514455195948July3135158123042090380527862786351039384957418051715626541255460August2626166122512117380528132760399243945144436752516082568058940September2518168823582331391228402947471505358463554926591618959750October2117179523852358028130463505385059216511618959480November1661179500027860005198065370602858940December0000000000000656400Average2669162421852174338928942786404239444933425652855860564757245689

Month-wise closing stockMonth-wise Public Closing Stock of Rice(000 m. tons)Month1976/771977/781978/791979/801980/811981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09July819.00480.00615.00426.001059.001270.00705.00761.00752.001065.00954.001079.001494.001056.00439438.31755.82655.99630.65659.67679.8061.10690.00769.70600.70989.20August776.00617.00601.00655.001259.001240.00796.00819.00667.001038.00928.00948.001376.001276.00470432.20855.46744.98618.95707.08677.8069.00745.00818.20609.201102.10September716.00742.00612.00906.001331.001364.00773.00811.00536.001085.001094.00852.001153.001410.00453375.20807.36740.17607.57680.90650.60100.40762.00757.00593.101168.10October574.00674.00727.00788.001350.001296.00656.00679.00595.001027.00913.00952.00981.001455.00374321.91722.46785.74591.02637.75618.00162.20630.00608.70587.701246.60November460.00634.00891.00772.001326.001128.00659.00506.00744.00910.00906.001208.001155.001399.00336299.22653.41737.90557.49479.44548.30166.10577.00584.10571.701177.90December471.00828.00925.00826.001322.001001.00814.00455.00793.00885.00790.001196.001381.001430.00270287.61555.05715.69515.14347.00602.0079.00510.00614.40478.901076.40January559.00888.00869.00759.001388.00906.00845.00585.00837.00824.00597.001151.001236.001331.00250341.29654.34740.39495.75325.00580.9087.60430.00625.00405.701115.30February568.00834.00787.00619.001350.00695.00752.00521.00936.00723.00452.001199.001078.001177.00223383.89670.31678.56380.13277.00547.20115.10417.00610.30348.501113.10March479.00764.00618.00688.001260.00647.00607.00567.00930.00673.00357.001055.00965.00938.00137398.17637.49609.43324.64216.00487.50173.70370.00510.10324.90900.80April377.00724.00493.00618.001266.00574.00497.00554.001095.00784.00387.001074.00826.00842.00100445.46516.63462.62245.57132.00417.00110.30287.00195.30232.70751.20May376.00748.00391.00695.001165.00495.00522.00775.001023.00837.00471.001195.00960.00951.00157665.92504.93418.40270.26264.00533.0068.70422.00252.80565.50751.70June382.00678.00212.00791.001249.00616.00611.00800.001017.00976.00751.001417.00962.001148.00352694.62562.26421.59499.83525.00723.10162.80568.00436.10824.80929.80Yearly total6557.008611.007741.008543.0015325.0011232.008237.007833.009925.0010827.008600.0013326.0013567.0014413.003561.005083.817895.517711.465736.995250.847065.201356.006408.006781.706143.4012322.20Monthly average546.42717.58645.08711.921277.08936.00686.42652.75827.08902.25716.671110.501130.581201.08296.75423.65657.96642.62478.08437.57588.80113.00534.00565.10512.001026.80

DistributionMonthly distribution of Rice from Public StockMonth1977/781978/791979/801980/811981/821982/831983/841984/851985/861986/871987/881988/891989/901990/911991/921992/931993/941994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/092009/10July66.0046.0067.0041.0041.0038.0024.0039.0024.0024.0041.0021.0045.0013.0014.0017.2811.2312.4912.1618.8243.3513.9013.5029.3027.6618.63August53.0051.0067.0040.0035.0042.0021.0051.0022.0029.0066.0034.0049.0015.0045.0046.6711.6511.1916.9822.4849.5043.50118.1051.5075.94135.99September54.0050.0066.0047.0060.0066.0052.0062.0025.0043.0069.0091.0036.0027.0066.0058.5913.7210.9725.5926.8581.4996.50146.50108.40180.9942.08October58.0058.0070.0046.00116.0078.0067.0045.0066.00100.0067.0058.0037.0080.0054.0087.2853.0217.9042.3032.23145.60174.90203.6085.70179.4025.38November50.0045.0060.0038.0072.0040.0031.0041.0042.0033.0044.0047.0031.0038.0050.0068.8553.6133.06133.0669.31146.8052.4044.4087.60144.34137.51December34.0043.0047.0036.0070.0024.0023.0038.0016.0011.0030.0054.0042.0065.0038.0030.9766.9850.82131.0432.7751.9267.4072.20144.50125.4943.23January35.0044.0052.0031.0054.0037.0030.0034.0016.0013.0025.0051.0050.0021.0018.00116.8489.7564.3333.6173.2968.8486.6042.90139.6049.97120.93February44.0038.0055.0039.0057.0036.0033.0021.0018.0021.0037.0057.0052.0026.0036.0038.86108.57157.7655.3140.9492.6983.0033.6097.7067.05228.19March53.0049.0066.0056.0067.0040.0046.0021.0032.0055.0038.0074.00103.0092.0040.0061.12125.2669.0160.5258.95150.2186.8099.7074.20212.64218.93April57.0044.0060.0052.00101.0035.0078.0018.0051.0081.0025.0092.00104.0092.0038.00126.61145.4978.3684.9270.1888.9383.40313.70158.10148.61157.18May53.0047.0048.0050.0060.0033.0057.0017.0043.0046.0012.0063.0067.0032.0018.0084.85100.9850.4761.2959.1444.1087.1073.0051.10238.4149.95June50.0057.0044.0041.0038.0027.0041.0013.0018.0039.0013.0050.0059.0028.00113.00137.75203.4491.48104.05122.96138.90132.90126.6053.00306.57126.54Yearly total607572702517771496503400373495467692675529.00530.00875.67983.70647.84760.84627.911102.311008.401287.801080.701757.051304.53

RQ_3Aman SeasonDetailed CalculationsCalculated as a % of total grainYear% of grain procured from farmers during Aman seasonTotal GrainPaddy% procured from farmers1989/9098242.10238.3098.431990/9196532.90509.5095.611991/9216148.9523.6515.881992/93316.090.493.031993/9400.000.000.001994/950nillnill0.001995/96041.670.170.401996/9743235.10101.1043.001997/98730.730.5372.711998/991000.040.04100.001999/007239.5915.596.512000/0121253.2253.8221.252001/0211116.0412.6410.892002/03319.020.653.432003/0411149.0017.0011.412004/0500.000.000.002005/060163.000.000.002006/070163.000.000.002007/0800.000.000.002008/098167.0014.008.382009/10014.000.000.002010/110nillnill0.002011/120349.000.000.0021.35Boro SeasonYear% of grain procured from farmers during Boro seasonTotal GrainPaddy% procured from farmersCalculated as a % of total grain199198841.90826.1098.12199297815.00792.3097.211993171.330.2317.3619943165.945.443.28199514176.2525.3514.38199612434.2350.3311.59199761309.80189.3061.10199826290.6276.3226.26199923657.20150.7022.93200021647.00134.4020.77200124532.00129.8024.40200212657.2380.8312.30200312788.3497.8412.4120045760.0038.005.0020052939.0020.002.13200611040.0015.001.4420071708.006.000.85200841184.0047.003.97200981230.0096.007.8020102566.009.001.5920110819.000.000.0020125294.0915.195.1720

RQ_3

% of grain procured from farmers during Aman season% of grain procured from farmers during Aman season

Sheet4

% of grain procured from farmers during Boro season% of grain procured from farmers during Boro season

RQ_5

RQ_6Aman SeasonDetailed CalculationsYear% of grain procured from millersTotal GrainRice% procured from millers1989/902242.103.801.571990/914532.9023.404.391991/9284148.95125.3084.121992/939716.0915.6096.971993/9400.000.000.001994/950nillnill0.001995/9610041.6741.5099.601996/9757235.10134.0057.001997/98270.730.2027.291998/9900.040.000.001999/0093239.59224.0093.492000/0179253.22199.4078.752001/0289116.04103.4089.112002/039719.0218.3796.572003/0489149.00132.0088.592004/0500.000.000.002005/06100163.00163.00100.002006/07100163.00163.00100.002007/0800.000.000.002008/0992167.00153.0091.622009/1010014.0014.00100.002010/110nillnill0.002011/12100349.00349.00100.0057Boro SeasonYear% procured from millersTotal GrainRice% procured from millers19912841.9015.801.8819923815.0022.702.791993831.331.1082.64199497165.94160.5096.72199586176.25150.9085.62199688434.23383.9088.41199739309.80120.5038.90199874290.62214.3073.74199977657.20506.5077.07200079647.00512.6079.23200176532.00402.2075.60200288657.23576.4087.70200388788.34690.5087.59200495760.00722.0095.00200598939.00919.0097.872006991040.001025.0098.56200799708.00702.0099.152008961184.001137.0096.032009921230.001134.0092.20201098566.00557.0098.412011100819.00819.00100.00201295294.09278.9094.8380

RQ_6

% of grain procured from millers% of grain procured from millers

RQ_7

% procured from millers% procured from millers during the Boro season

RQ_8Aman SeasonBoroActual productionLinear trend productionProd Deviations from trendProcurementActual productionLinear trend productionProd Deviations from trendProcurement1975/767333.916804.8815890328529.03307.3441975/762322.28921.901400.3823.071976/777190.346936.4072087063253.93308.8781976/771676.621342.54334.085.401977/787732.0657067.9328283798664.13427.9141977/782274.651763.18511.4837.651978/797761.9057199.4584480534562.45208.5060.48211728671978/791960.162183.81-223.6581.531979/807111.2297330.9840677269-219.76190.6321979/802484.602604.45-119.8565.530.57883072191980/817963.6304812857462.5096874004501.12509.5171980/812645.463025.09-379.62266.221981/827209.9437594.0353070739-384.09146.2191981/823146.893445.72-298.83150.691982/837603.0267725.5609267474-122.5393.381982/833543.763866.36-322.6073.921983/847933.5387857.086546420976.4582.6521983/843372.614287.00-914.3845.681984/857935.1447988.6121660944-53.4775.7551984/853975.104707.63-732.5355.681985/868562.1258120.137785768441.99138.5551985/863703.435128.27-1424.8479.421986/878593.8358251.6634054415342.1722.521986/873920.705548.91-1628.21114.511987/8876908383.189025115-693.1948.7751987/884730.785969.54-1238.76239.061988/896857.1458514.7146447885-1657.5758.7031988/895282.266390.18-1107.92302.401989/909003.958646.240264462357.71418.7771989/905969.796810.82-841.03499.251990/9191678777.7658841355389.23162.71990/916357.007231.45-874.45566.501991/9292698909.291503809359.713631991/926804.007652.09-848.09505.501992/9396809040.8171234825639.18140.71992/936586.008072.73-1486.731.201993/9494199172.342743156246.66161993/946772.008493.36-1721.36163.901994/9585049303.8683628296-799.8701994/956538.008914.00-2376.00167.001995/968790.339435.3939825031-645.0641.5721995/967221.029334.64-2113.62417.431996/979551.789566.9196021766-15.14199.8831996/977459.929755.27-2295.35243.531997/988849.99698.4452218501-848.550.5421997/988137.3310175.91-2038.58263.911998/997735.859829.9708415236-2094.120.061998/9910551.9010596.55-44.65604.441999/0010305.989961.4964611971344.48234.7181999/0011027.0111017.189.83599.932000/0111248.9310093.02208087061155.91236.2192000/0111920.9411437.82483.12486.622001/0210726.1910224.5477005441501.64112.0382001/0211765.5011858.45-92.95628.972002/0311114.9510356.0733202177758.8818.8192002/0312221.8512279.09-57.24754.112003/0411520.5910487.59893989121032.99143.7262003/0412837.2312699.73137.50747.042004/059819.61710619.1245595647-799.510.0022004/0513837.0613120.36716.70931.172005/061081010750.650179238259.3588.3112005/0613975.0013541.00434.001039.552006/0710840.8710882.1757989117-41.31162.832006/0714965.0613961.641003.42706.382007/089662.19111013.7014185852-1351.5102007/0817761.7814382.273379.511167.532008/0911613.16911145.2270382587467.94162.9972008/0917809.0514802.913006.141195.942009/1012207.16211276.7526579322930.4114.692009/1018058.9615223.552835.41562.75

RQ_8

Prod Deviations from trendProcurement

Prod Deviations from trendProcurement

AmanYearProductionRice Procurement1995/968790.3341.571996/979551.78199.881997/988849.900.54R2 =0.38456911781998/997735.850.061999/0010305.98234.722000/0111248.93236.222001/0210726.19112.042002/0311114.9518.822003/0411520.59143.732004/059819.620.002005/0610810.0088.312006/0710840.87162.832007/089662.190.002008/0911613.17163.002009/1012207.1614.69YearProductionRice Procurement1995/967221.02417.431996/977459.92243.531997/988137.33263.91R2 =0.78217258211998/9910551.90604.441999/0011027.01599.932000/0111920.94486.622001/0211765.50628.972002/0312221.85754.112003/0412837.23747.042004/0513837.06931.172005/0613975.001039.552006/0714965.06706.382007/0817761.781167.532008/0917809.051195.942009/1018058.96562.75

ProductionRice Procurement

ProductionRice Procurement

Dev from trendDistribution1997/98-1443.5618518024529-848.5452218501-2038.5784817547-1443.56185180241998/99-1069.38297616795300.76996066-2094.1208415236-44.6451108122-1069.38297616791999/00177.1558994666875.674344.48353880299.8282601302177.15589946662000/01819.514775101983.6961155.9079191294483.1216310727819.5147751012001/02204.3436507355647.84501.6422994559-92.9549979848204.34365073552002/03350.81752637760.835758.8766797823-57.2416270424350.817526372003/04585.2464020045627.9071032.9910601088137.5017439001585.24640200452004/05-41.40622236111102.309-799.5075595647716.6951148425-41.40622236112005/06246.67415327341008.459.3498207618433.998485785246.67415327342006/07481.05552890791287.8-41.30579891171003.4168567275481.05552890792007/081013.99790454241080.7-1351.51041858523379.50622766991013.99790454242008/091737.04078017681757.054467.94196174133006.13959861241737.04078017682009/101882.91165581131304.534930.40934206782835.41396955491882.9116558113

Dev from trendDistribution

Chart11.87670744742.785276073682.644628099296.72170664185.617021276688.409368307138.896061975573.738903034977.069385270879.22720247375.601503759487.701413508287.58911129729597.870074547498.557692307799.152542372996.030405405492.195121951298.409893992910094.8346271418

% procured from millers% of grain procured from millers

Sheet1SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9005432382R Square0.8109781239Adjusted R Square0.8058694246Standard Error733.7099928898Observations39ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression185457003.834676785457003.8346767158.74453902270Residual3719918223.0856571538330.353666407Total38105375226.920334CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept6147.2534906653239.56803777425.659739703905661.84254189746632.66443943315661.84254189746632.6644394331X Variable 1131.525619673510.439049564212.59938645420110.3740962889152.6771430581110.3740962889152.6771430581

Aman ProductionAmanAreaProductionTrend ProductionRice Procurement% Procured(Production in 000 m tons)(Area in 000 acres)1971/7216026.746278.781972/7325810.566410.301973/7436990.096541.831974/7546187.206673.366147.25349066531975/7657333.916804.88307.34529.03131.52561967351976/7767190.346936.41308.88253.931977/7877732.077067.93427.91664.131978/7987761.917199.46208.51562.451979/8097111.237330.98190.63-219.761980/81107963.637462.51509.52501.121981/82117209.947594.04146.22-384.091982/83127603.037725.5693.38-122.531983/84137933.547857.0982.6576.451984/85147935.147988.6175.76-53.471985/86158562.138120.14138.56441.991986/87168593.848251.6622.52342.171987/88177690.008383.1948.78-693.191988/89186857.158514.7158.70-1657.571989/90199003.958646.24418.78357.711990/91209167.008777.77162.70389.231991/92219269.008909.29363.00359.711992/93229680.009040.82140.70639.181993/942314209.009419.009172.3416.00246.661994/952413824.008504.009303.870.00-799.871995/962513952.848790.339435.3941.570.47-645.061996/972614338.539551.789566.92199.882.09-15.141997/982714353.258849.909698.450.540.01-848.551998/992812762.077735.859829.970.060.00-2094.121999/002914097.3010305.989961.50234.722.28344.482000/013014109.8911248.9310093.02236.222.101155.912001/023113954.8610726.1910224.55112.041.04501.642002/033214041.0011114.9510356.0718.820.17758.882003/043314030.0011520.5910487.60143.731.251032.992004/053413047.219819.6210619.120.000.00-799.512005/063513415.0010810.0010750.6588.310.8259.352006/073613381.7710840.8710882.18162.831.50-41.312007/083712473.789662.1911013.70nil0.00-1351.512008/093813584.6311613.1711145.23163.001.40467.942009/103913992.8612207.1611276.7514.690.12930.41

Sheet3SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9525760281R Square0.9074010894Adjusted R Square0.9048984161Standard Error1552.6479396868Observations39ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1874059758.102152874059758.102152362.5727353230Residual3789196478.11070362410715.62461361Total38963256236.212855CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-1181.2805027988506.9643644889-2.33010559630.0253626397-2208.4878692099-154.0731363878-2208.4878692099-154.0731363878X Variable 1420.636629057522.090701987419.0413427920375.8766155337465.3966425813375.8766155337465.3966425813

Boro ProductionBoro(Production in 000 m tons)AreaProductionRice Procurement% ProcuredProduction deviations from trend(Area in 000 acres)1971/7211765.98-760.64Intercept-1181.28050279881972/7322103.49-340.01Coefficient420.63662905751973/7432255.6580.631974/7542285.81501.271975/7652322.28921.9023.071400.381976/7761676.621342.545.40334.081977/7872274.651763.1837.65511.481978/7981960.162183.8181.53-223.651979/8092484.602604.4565.53-119.851980/81102645.463025.09266.22-379.621981/82113146.893445.72150.69-298.831982/83123543.763866.3673.92-322.601983/84133372.614287.0045.68-914.381984/85143975.104707.6355.68-732.531985/86153703.435128.2779.42-1424.841986/87163920.705548.91114.51-1628.211987/88174730.785969.54239.06-1238.761988/89185282.266390.18302.40-1107.921989/90195969.796810.82499.25-841.031990/91206297.006357.007231.45566.50-874.451991/92216511.006804.007652.09505.50-848.091992/93226423.006586.008072.731.20-1486.731993/94236378.006772.008493.36163.90-1721.361994/95246582.006538.008914.00167.00-2376.001995/96256804.357221.029334.64417.435.78-2113.621996/97266876.067459.929755.27243.533.26-2295.351997/98277137.938137.3310175.91263.913.24-2038.581998/99288714.7410551.9010596.55604.445.73-44.651999/00299024.1811027.0111017.18599.935.449.832000/01309295.8911920.9411437.82486.624.08483.122001/02319319.3411765.5011858.45628.975.35-92.952002/03329500.9912221.8512279.09754.116.17-57.242003/04339744.8112837.2312699.73747.045.82137.501765983.843839752103492.68743252255647.27262285806.902326392322280.31230141676621.601666252274652.624957651960162.560176052484598.518940892645461.731483823146889354376133726113975100370342539207004730779528226059697892004/053410042.0313837.0613120.36931.176.73716.702005/063510047.0013975.0013541.001039.557.44434.002006/073610521.6314965.0613961.64706.384.721003.421765.98384383982103.49268743252255.64727262285.80690232642322.28031230141676.62160166622274.65262495761960.1625601762484.59851894092645.46173148383146.8893543.7613372.6113975.13703.4253920.74730.7795282.265969.7892007/083711385.9217761.7814382.271167.536.573379.512008/093811654.3217809.0514802.911195.946.723006.141765.98384383982103.49268743252255.64727262285.80690232642322.28031230141676.62160166622274.65262495761960.1625601762484.59851894092645.46173148383146.8893543.7613372.6113975.13703.4253920.74730.7795282.265969.7892009/103911631.1618058.9615223.55562.753.122835.41

Aman ProcurementYearPaddyRiceIn RiceTotal Grain1989/90238.303.80162.70242.101990/91509.5023.40363.00532.901991/9223.65125.30140.70148.951992/930.4915.6016.0016.091993/940.000.000.000.001994/95nillnillnillnill1995/960.1741.5041.6041.671996/97101.10134.00201.40235.101997/980.530.200.500.731998/990.040.000.100.041999/0015.59224.00234.70239.592000/0153.82199.40236.20253.222001/0212.64103.40112.00116.042002/030.6518.3718.8219.022003/0417.00132.00144.00149.002004/050.000.000.000.002005/060.00163.00163.00163.002006/070.00163.00163.00163.002007/080.000.000.000.002008/0914.00153.00163.00167.002009/100.0014.0015.0014.002010/11nillnillnillnill2011/120349349.66349.00

Boro ProcurementYearPaddyRiceIn RiceTotal Grain1991826.1015.80566.50841.901992792.3022.70505.50815.0019930.231.101.201.3319945.44160.50163.90165.94199525.35150.90167.00176.25199650.33383.90417.40434.231997189.30120.50243.50309.80199876.32214.30264.00290.621999150.70506.50604.40657.202000134.40512.60599.90647.002001129.80402.20486.60532.00200280.83576.40629.00657.23200397.84690.50754.10788.34200438.00722.00747.00760.00200520.00919.00931.00939.00200615.001025.001039.001040.0020076.00702.00706.00708.00200847.001137.001168.001184.00200996.001134.001196.001230.0020109.00557.00563.00566.0020110.00819.00619.00819.00201215.19278.90288.78294.09

Aman PriceAverage wholesale price of rice during aman procurement seasonProcurement PricesNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchPaddyRiceMonthJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneAverage1971/7261.62100.19616.171001.951971/721972/7388.41141.99884.071419.871972/731973/74120.56192.061205.551920.581973/741974/75206.28324.162062.833241.591974/751975/7636973537353730812679no procno procno proc1975/763671399244744153369735373537308126792197160817153195.08333333331976/7719021822187519292009208.96326.842089.623268.381976/771902187517681822190218221875192920091983166115811844.08333333331977/7823312518273327602786225.04353.632250.363536.281977/781715192921172277233125182733276027862679198320902326.51978/7925722599251827062786no procno procno proc1978/792304233124922679257225992518270627862652211722512500.58333333331979/8033753885434044214233267.90423.282679.004232.821979/802438254528403135337538854340442142333858308130013429.3333333333294.69452.752946.904527.511980/813322340334293644353733223215313532153081265229473241.83333333331980/8135373322321531353215308.09468.833080.854688.251981/8228133001313532693403329532953295334935903269332232531981/8234033295329532953349332.20509.013321.965090.101982/8336974394466249305224447445014501493049033597367144571982/8352244474450145014930361.67562.593616.655625.901983/844099418043144394447444744501466249034769391241534402.91666666671983/8444744474450146624903385.78602.783857.766027.751984/854528460849575385543955455894616263505573476951445362.83333333331984/8554395545589461626350442.04664.394420.356643.921985/865224517151985358503747954930490350375010439443144947.5833333333468.83704.584688.257045.771986/874555471551985600557355735841586861626323527849575470.251985/8650374795493049035037455.43683.154554.306831.451987/885653616268597100688668596939702074487475543955456615.4166666667468.83709.944688.257099.351988/895948645766446296578758946135637761095858549258416069.83333333331986/8755735573584158686162468.83709.944688.257099.351989/906216659168057368715469120000522452786444495.62760.844956.157608.361990/9157876269675268326511632300000064121987/8868866859693970207448535.80825.135358.008251.321991/921988/8957875894613563776109562.59865.325625.908653.171992/931989/90589.38905.505893.809055.021993/941990/910.000.005900.009070.501994/951991/920.001010.006560.0010100.001995/961992/931996/971993/941997/981994/951998/991995/961999/001243124312391280119511881157120712271236128611791223.33333333331996/972000/011103105111041240112911851130116611781213117311031147.91666666671997/982001/021107118611291169114312081252127112751269121012091202.33333333331998/991420.981445.801443.99354838711449.1357142857-760.001200.0024.822002/031228123413001343134813401395139114001393126012731325.416666666719981999/00-1131.251140.45161290321178.92142857141207.8387096774800.001250.009.202003/041210129013451308130212991334135613611308130712621306.833333333319992000/01-1130.801147.21156.31428571431180.0580645161800.001250.0016.402004/051277135013601470144915231585162815881561142314691473.583333333320002001/02-1168.061207.11612903231258.10714285711269.4709677419800.001250.0039.052005/061557154915441547157915901594161116051607158215931579.833333333320012002/03--1304.35483870971368.99285714291360.6064516129840.001280.0064.642006/071561158415871602162616451692175517651886186718311700.083333333320022003/041295.80666666671279.811283.47741935481296.1142857143-840.001280.00-16.0020032004/051517.43333333331588.681678.0472686681700.6741253698-860.001310.0071.2420042005/061559.49677419361616.001633.47096774191651.03571428571655.5032258064925.001400.0056.5020052006/07-1670.111686.03225806451680.5059523811928.99462365591000.001600.0015.9220062007/082345.68333333332448.922873.30645161292657.0632183908-1200.002000.00103.2420072008/092782.45679466232631.502488.03678467152164.00667880792154.01024922351600.002600.00-150.9520082009/102060.51850248522235.462506.08047629772631.30324074072610.3776515381400.002200.00174.9520092010/113109.02601693883170.823288.37079752073317.06618735963208.04235644243671399244744153369735373537308126792197160817153195.08333333331902187517681822190218221875192920091983166115811844.08333333331715192921172277233125182733276027862679198320902326.52304233124922679257225992518270627862652211722512500.58333333332438254528403135337538854340442142333858308130013429.33333333333322340334293644353733223215313532153081265229473241.8333333333281330013135326934033295329532953349359032693322325336974394466249305224447445014501493049033597367144574099418043144394447444744501466249034769391241534402.91666666674528460849575385543955455894616263505573476951445362.83333333335224517151985358503747954930490350375010439443144947.58333333334555471551985600557355735841586861626323527849575470.255653616268597100688668596939702074487475543955456615.41666666675948645766446296578758946135637761095858549258416069.833333333362166591680573687154691200005224527864445787626967526832651163230000006412

Boro PriceAverage wholesale price of rice during Boro procurement seasonProcurement PricesAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberPaddyRice1971/7219721972/7319731973/7419741974/7519751975/7619761976/771977198.246310.7641977/781978225.036353.6281978/791979243.789375.061979/801980294.69442.0351981308.085468.8251982332.196509.011983361.665562.591984385.776602.7751985442.035664.3921986455.43683.145JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember468.825709.9351987535.8768.873199919-4-9930-9-991443.99354838711449.13571428571442.69032258061418.641242.63225806451197.11333333331200.7354838711177.21225.92666666671182.7354838711144.23333333331131.25161290321988535.8825.132200020-4-007-11-001140.45161290321178.92142857141207.83870967741220.16666666671187.0645161291420.62666666671148.49677419361110.25806451611144.11150.74666666671144.221130.81989562.59866.46897200120-04-0131-7-011147.21156.31428571431180.05806451611213.63333333331165.10967741941121.03333333331104.50967741941065.22580645161114.441121.20645161291186.361168.0645161291990590907.5200225-4-0231-8-021207.11612903231258.10714285711269.47096774191278.06666666671233.34193548391190.25333333331231.37419354841252.47096774191298.561271.50967741941295.59333333331239.25161290321991643990200320-4-0331-08-031304.35483870971368.99285714291360.60645161291336.50666666671236.09032258061228.441256.47741935481241.09677419361279.541241.03870967741295.80666666671279.80645161291992200425-4-0430-09-041283.47741935481296.11428571431329.47741935481330.76666666671310.29032258061280.113333333312961351.12903225811396.72666666671508.81517.43333333331588.67741935481993200525-4-0531-10-051678.0472686681700.67412536981655.43870967741618.481552.05806451611521.63320296811593.70527948231627.28387096771621.041597.41290322581559.496774193616161994200620-4-0615-11-061633.47096774191651.03571428571655.50322580641662.35333333331636.43225806451629166216361622.82685185181616.78046594981664.34444444441670.10752688171995200701-05-0731-10-071686.03225806451680.5059523811928.99462365591993.61992.72903225811960.14444444441993.65591397852152.69354838712175.0052194.33333333332345.68333333332448.91935483871996200816-04-0810-11-082873.30645161292657.06321839082986.2526881723209.88888888892976.36075268822990.16666666673202.73420013823194.76767266053071.93757509743008.17745161932782.45679466232631.50192468651997200901-05-0915-09-092488.03678467152164.00667880792154.01024922351924.16966742591922.35469602961926.9670322271919.17576029111904.11488308581915.52210598042058.94557490972060.51850248522235.46389781071998201001-05-1031-10-102506.08047629772631.30324074072610.3776515382589.04876513742600.03830760772685.55091845292845.56017124472470.06666666672515.26666666673160.56809745553109.02601693883170.819834492919991418.641242.631197.111200.741177.201225.93--825130020001220.171187.061420.631148.501110.261144.101150.751144.22825130020011213.631165.111121.031104.51----825130020021278.071233.341190.251231.371252.47---8401325WHOLESALE PRICE OF BORO PADDY BY MONTHS FROM 1975 TO 199020031336.511236.091228.441256.481241.10---8401325Taka/metric ton)20041330.771310.291280.111296.001351.131396.73--8401325Months197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199020051618.481552.061521.631593.711627.281621.041597.41-925145020061662.351636.431629.001662.001636.001622.831616.781664.349751550January00000000000000002007-1992.731960.141993.662152.692175.012194.33-11251800February000000000000000020083209.892976.362990.173202.733194.773071.943008.182782.4618002800March00000000000000002009-1922.351926.971919.181904.111915.52--14002200April31351447190221432652318827334233369744214287455555464903586855192010-2600.042685.552845.562470.072515.273160.57-17002800May2974152719582063284030012760361737244581401945555224471551445600June3188150021432117332229202733359039654421404647965439514455195948July3135158123042090380527862786351039384957418051715626541255460August2626166122512117380528132760399243945144436752516082568058940September25181688235823313912284029474715053584635549265916