Prince William County Demographics and Economics January ... Vaughan Economic... · Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 3 | January 18, 2012. Demographics:

Prince William CountyPrince William County

Demographics and EconomicsDemographics and Economics

January 18, 2012January 18, 2012Bill VaughanBill Vaughan

Chief Economist/County DemographerChief Economist/County Demographer

Prince William Co. Finance Dept.Prince William Co. Finance Dept.

www.pwcgov.orgwww.pwcgov.org







Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 2 | January 18, 2012

Prince William County FactsPrince William County Facts

PrinceWilliamCounty

MontgomeryCounty Anne

ArundelCounty

FairfaxCounty

PrinceGeorge’sCounty

CalvertCounty

CharlesCounty

HowardCounty

FrederickCounty

FauquierCounty

195

StaffordCounty

SpotsylvaniaCounty

Fredericksburg

Fairfax

LoudounCounty

Alexandria

FallsChurch

ArlingtonCo.

Manassas Pk.Manassas

MARYLANDVIRGINIA Wash./Dulles

Int. Airport

ReaganNat. Airport

Baltimore-WashingtonInt. Airport

495

95

66

270

95

70

395

395 95

695

97

Potomac R.

WASH.D.C.

Population:2010 Census 402,002 (Apr. 1, 2010)Latest estimate 411,751 (Dec. 15, 2011)--2.43% increase

Households married couple families with children, 2010:31.7% (region: 22.3%)

Adults with college degree, 2010:43.7%

Labor force, November 2011:217,175

Unemployment rate, November 2011: 4.7% (region: 4.1%):

Female labor force participation rate, 2010:68.5% (region: 67.9%)

At-place employment: 108,630 (2st Qtr. 2011)—3.5% increase y-o-y

Median Household Income, 2010:$92,655 (ranked 9th in U.S.) (region: $84,523)

One-way average commute, 2010:38 minutes (up from 36.9 in 2000)

Percent of labor force working outside of County, 2010:62.5%

Average assessed house value, 2011:$265,848

Average sold price, 2011:$271,558 (Dec., 2011—0.7% decrease y-o-y)


Demographics: PopulationDemographics: Population

•PWC: 411,751 (as of Dec. 15, 2011); 2.43% growth rate since 2010•Manassas: 37,821 (Apr. 1, 2010) Manassas Park: 14,273 (Apr. 1, 2010)•1,215 persons per square mile of land area•PWC projected to grow to 535,629 persons by 2030


20002000--10 Population/Housing Growth10 Population/Housing Growth With 2001 Election DistrictsWith 2001 Election Districts

2000 2010 Gr. Gr. Rt. BRENTSVILLE 39,367 79,541 40,174 102.0%

COLES 40,537 51,768 11,231 27.7%

DUMFRIES 41,525 53,936 12,411 29.9%

GAINESVILLE 41,883 73,142 31,259 74.6%

NEABSCO 39,799 49,099 9,300 23.4%

OCCOQUAN 38,580 40,241 1,661 4.3%

WOODBRIDGE 39,122 54,275 15,153 38.7%

COUNTY-WIDE 280,813 402,002 121,189 43.2%

AVERAGE 40,116 57,429 17,313 43.2%

Election District Population Growth 2000-10


2011 Adopted Election Districts2011 Adopted Election Districts

Total Population

BRENTSVILLE 79,541COLES 51,768DUMFRIES 53,936GAINESVILLE 73,142NEABSCO 49,099OCCOQUAN 40,241WOODBRIDGE 54,275

COUNTY-WIDE 402,002

Old Districts 2010 Population before

RedistrictingTotal

PopulationBRENTSVILLE 60,162COLES 59,207GAINESVILLE 59,991NEABSCO 54,920OCCOQUAN 56,209POTOMAC 55,562WOODBRIDGE 55,951

COUNTY-WIDE 402,002

New Districts 2010 Population after

Redistricting

Equal population (402,002 / 7): 57,429


Demographics: PWC Race and EthnicityDemographics: PWC Race and Ethnicity

Reporting One Race 1990 2000 2010 2010 U.S.Reporting One Race N/A 96.4% 94.9% 97.1%White 83.3% 68.9% 60.9% 72.4%Black/African American 11.6% 18.8% 21.3% 12.6%Am. Indian/Alaska Nat. 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9%As. Amer. Pac. Island. 3.0% 3.9% 8.1% 5.0%Other 1.7% 4.3% 9.1% 6.2%

Reporting 2 or more Races NA 3.6% 5.1% 2.9%Hispanic Origin (any race) 4.5% 9.7% 20.3% 16.3%

Source: U.S. Dept. Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 1990, 2000, 2010 CensusesNote: percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

Pr. Wm. Co. Racial Identity (Reporting One Race) 2000, 2010


Demographics: PWC Race and EthnicityDemographics: PWC Race and Ethnicity

Growth 2000 - 2010Hispanic (of any race): 198.8%Asian/Pacific Islander: 188.8%American Indian/Alaska Native: 69.5%Black/African American: 53.6%White: 20.4%

PWC is now “majority-minority” community, meaning less than half (48.7%) of the population is reported as non-Hispanic and of one-race-White

Source: U.S. Dept. Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 1990, 2000, 2010 Censuses,

Pr. Wm. Co. Population by Race and Ethnicity Percent Change 2000 - 2010


Demographics: Nativity, Place of Birth and Demographics: Nativity, Place of Birth and LanguageLanguage

PWC Birth Place and Citizenship 2010Native to the U.S……………………………………….78.8% (U.S.: 87.5%)Foreign-born………………………………...………….21.2% (U.S.: 12.5%)

Naturalized citizens…………………………………10.0% (U.S.: 5.6%)Not a citizen……………………….……...………….11.2% (U.S.: 7.3%)

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year estimates.

Region of Birth of PWCForeign-Born Population, 2008

30.3% speaks a language other than English at home (U.S.: 20.6%)


Demographics: Age and GenderDemographics: Age and Gender

28.9% of the total County population is under 18 years of age (over 4 percentage points higher than U.S. rate)6.8% is aged 65 and over (about half the U.S. rate), increasing over time49.7% male, 50.3% female The median age of the population is 33.2 years (U.S.: 36.8 years)

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey, 2010 Census.


DemographicsDemographics: : Housing StockHousing Stock

Pr. Wm Co. housing stock:56.7% SFD, 24.9% TH, 17.4% MF

31.2% (about one-in-three) of houses were built since 2000


DemographicsDemographics: : EducationEducation

Pr. Wm Co. September 30, 2011 public school enrollment: 81,635 (19.9% of total population—1 in 5 persons in the County)36.9% of adults in Prince William County had bachelor’s degrees or higher(U.S.: 28.1%)

Persons 25 Years and overSource: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey

Educational Attainment in Pr. William Co. 2010


DemographicsDemographics: : Income and PovertyIncome and Poverty

2010 Median Household IncomePrince William County: $92,655 (U.S.: $50,046)Ranked 9th in U.S., 5th in Commonwealth11 of top 20 counties in the US are in Washington Metropolitan Area


DemographicsDemographics: : Income and PovertyIncome and Poverty

2010 Median Household Income8.3% of households had income less than $25,00046.0% of households had incomes of $100,000 or greater10.0% of households had income of $200,000 or greaterPoverty rates: PWC: 5.5%; Virginia: 11.1%; US: 15.3%

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey


DemographicsDemographics: : Journey to WorkJourney to Work

Pr. Wm. Co. 2010 average travel time to work (one-way): 38 minutes (U.S.: 25.3) Pr. Wm. Co. had the 12th longest average commute in the U.S.8 of top 20 longest commutes are in metropolitan Washington23.4% travel an hour or more one way to work (U.S.: 8.0%)68.6% drive to work alone (U.S.: 76.6%)15.5% carpool to work (U.S.: 9.7%)5.5% use public transportation (U.S.: 4.9%)


DemographicsDemographics: : Place of WorkPlace of Work

Pr. Wm. Co. Labor Force 2010

About 1 in 3 (37.5%) of labor force live and work in Pr. Wm. Co. (2000: 34%)

Nearly 2 out of 3 (62.5%) of labor force commute out of Pr. Wm. Co. for work

About 1 in 8 (14%) work outside of Virginia

Worked outside of

County, 62.5%Worked in

County, 37.5%


Economy: NationalEconomy: National

DJIA: peaked at over 14,100 in October 2007, lost over 54% of its value between October 2008 and March 2009, bottoming to 6,440 on March 9, 2009. Closed 2011 above 12,400.



GDP: 1.8% in 3rd Quarter 2011, following 1.3% in 2nd Quarter, expanding, but at modest pace.



Unemployment: Initial Claims•Outlook improved modestly in late 2011, but after falling to lowest level since 2008, initial claims have steadily increased over past few weeks. •Businesses expected strong holiday sales growth and increased labor forces to meet anticipated demand. As sales disappointed, which seems evident given the December retail sales report, firms may have cut back on staffing in January and reduced labor needs.



Housing: New ConstructionHousing starts still at extremely low levels, but outlook improving. •First first time since peak of housing bubble, number of homes under construction increased for three consecutive months. •Still too early to call bottom, but growth in number of homes under construction is encouraging.•Housing starts are now at highest level since April 2010 when homebuyer tax credit artificially boosted production. Excluding that one-time event, housing starts are at their highest level since October 2008. •Increase in starts primarily due to a 25.3% surge in multifamily construction.



Automobile Sales•Auto sales surpassed recent highs from April as negative effects following Japanese earthquake and tsunami -- which lowered inventory levels and elevated prices -- seem to have completely dissipated•Total U.S. light vehicle sales were up 9% y/y in December.•All motor vehicle manufacturers, with notable exception of Honda (-19% y/y), showed positive growth in December.



Retail Sales•Retail sales increased 0.1% in December after increasing an upwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.2%) in November•Consumers increased savings rate in December, suggests that consumer debt remains a hindrance for current consumption.•Business conditions have notably improved over the last few months. That has led to higher wages, better job security, stronger consumer confidence, overall better consumption outlook.


Economy: StateEconomy: State

Employment and Wage Growth•Employment (3,596,042 in 2nd Quarter 2011) grew by 0.9% year-over-year•Average weekly wages ($949 in 2nd Quarter 2011) grew by 2.2% year-over-year



Unemployment Rate•Unemployment rate: 5.7% in November, 2011, compared to 6.6% one year earlier•Lowest monthly rate since Dec. 2008



Corporate Income Tax Receipts•Exceeded annual estimate by $55.7 million (7.3%) in FY 2011



Employment and Withholding•Employment Survey is starting to reflect actual withholding data


Economy: LocalEconomy: Local

Unemployment•4.7% in November 2011, compared to 5.5 one year earlier•5 Years: civilian labor force increased by 7.3% in last year, while number of unemployed persons increased by 101.6%•1 Year: civilian labor force increased by 2.0% in last year, while number of unemployed persons decreased by 26.5%


Economy: LocalEconomy: Local

At-place Employment•At-place employment (108, 630 in 2nd Qtr.. 2011) grew by 3.5% in last year and 3.3% in 5 years•Establishments (7,557 in 2nd Qtr.. 2011) grew by 3.8% in last year and 17.7% in 5 years•Average weekly wage ($804 in 2nd Quarter 2011--$41,808 average annual salary) grew by 1.1% in last year and 12.4% in 5 years


Economy: LocalEconomy: Local Residential Real EstateResidential Real Estate

Pr. Wm. Co. Residential Real Estate Market (Dec. 2011)Home Sales: 435 (11.8 decrease y-o-y)Average Sale Price: $271,558 (0.7% decrease y-o-y)Average Days on the Market: 60 (48 days one year ago)


J F M | A M J | J A S | O N D || J F M | A M J | J A S | O N D || J F M | A M J | J A S2006 2007 2008

Economy: Foreclosures 2006Economy: Foreclosures 2006--0808


Economy: Foreclosures 2006Economy: Foreclosures 2006--1111

Peak in July, September 2008 at nearly 800 per monthOctober 2011: 87Pr. Wm., Manassas, Manassas Park: over 18,000 recorded 2006-10Pr. Wm. 2010-11 year-to-date (Jan.-Oct.): 37% decline


Economy: Local Sales RevenueEconomy: Local Sales Revenue

November 2011: $4.3 million of sales tax revenue (4.4% increase y-o-y)22 straight months of y-o-y increases)


Economy: Commercial InventoryEconomy: Commercial Inventory

December 2011Inventory• total commercial space(44.4 million sf) increase by 0.7% in last year and by 9.3% in Iast 5 years

• Vacant space (8.7% in December 2011) decreased by 3.3% in last year but increased by 39.9% in last 5 years


Economy: Commercial InventoryEconomy: Commercial Inventory

December 2011Inventory• Net of 7 new buildings in last year year, 93 net new buildings in 5 years• Occupied space increased by 1.1% in last year but increased by 3.5% in last 5 years















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Prince William County Demographics and Economics January ... Vaughan Economic... · Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 3 | January 18, 2012. Demographics: