PRICING & ABSORPTION ANALYSIS - Lee & Associates: Commercial Real …€¦ · This market analysis was prepared by Meyers Research, a market research and consulting firm specializing

February 2016 | Presidio Vista, LLC

Presidio Vista – Vista, CA

PRICING & ABSORPTION ANALYSIS

Presidio Vista – A Proposed Residential Community of 31 Single Family Lots in Vista, California

2 February 2016 | Presidio Vista, LLC


CONTACT INFORMATION

This market analysis was prepared by Meyers Research, a market research and consulting firm specializing in the real estate

industry. It has been commissioned by Presidio Vista, LLC.

Brent Koenig served as Project Director and oversaw all aspects of this assignment. Follow-up questions should be directed to

Brent Koenig at 858.381.4389 or [email protected].

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this analysis was to assess the pricing and absorption potential for a proposed 31-lot single family home

community in Vista, California. Lot sizes are proposed to range from 10,035 to 15,565 square feet, with an average of 11,564

square feet, and the majority of lot widths range from 70 to 90 feet. The proposed lot sizes and dimensions should allow for all, or a

majority of, single story floor plans. The site will be developed with a modern farmhouse theme and include rolled curbs,

decomposed granite paths, oak trees, entry monumentation, equestrian rail fence along the front of the community and additional

perimeter fencing.

LIMITING CONDITIONS

Presidio Vista, LLC is responsible for representations about its development plans, marketing expectations and for disclosure of

any significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the projected results.

There will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur

as expected, and the differences may be material.

We have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our report.

Payment of any and all of our fees and expenses is not in any way contingent upon any factor other than our providing services

related to this report.



Lot sizes are proposed to range from 10,035 to 15,565 square feet, with an average of 11,564 square feet, and the majority of lot widths range

from 70 to 90 feet. The proposed lot sizes and dimensions should allow for all, or a majority of, single story floor plans.

Site Plan Offers 31 Lots Ranging from 10K - 15K Square Feet



The site will be developed with a modern farmhouse theme and include rolled curbs, decomposed granite paths, oak trees, entry monumentation,

equestrian rail fence along the front of the community and additional perimeter fencing.

Country Theme Proposed with Oak Trees & Rail Fencing



TABLE OF CONTENTS

Key Findings 6

Recommendations & Conclusions 8

Location Analysis 22

Housing Market Overview 28

Appendix 36



Key Findings




Subject Can Offer Competitive Pricing Proximate to Jobs & Services The following paragraphs outline the key findings from our research:

• If properly designed for families, empty nesters and retirees, our market research and analysis indicates a solid opportunity for the

market success of the proposed new home community at the Subject property. This is based on a number of factors, including:

The site’s south Vista location within a mile of Carlsbad ,10 minutes from the Palomar Airport and San Marcos/Escondido employment

nodes, and proximate location to the Highway 78 corridor, shopping, services and assigned schools.

Planned modern farmhouse theme with primarily single story homes on 10,000 square foot minimum lots, rolled curbs, decomposed

granite paths, oak trees and equestrian rail fencing is complementary to the rural feel and rolling hills of the area.

Demand for similar housing in the area is strong, with limited newer supply at the recommended price points.

Steady sales activity among comparable projects and growing target market of families, empty nesters and retirees.

Strong demographics and employment within a 30-minute drive.

Improving economic and housing market conditions in San Diego County.

• We recommend an average overall base price of $820,323 or $247 per square foot (in February 2016 dollars). This includes three single

story homes ranging from 2,700 to 3,500 square feet, and a 3,900 square foot two story plan that could be offered to appeal to larger families

or to provide larger yard areas. Once elements such as options and lot premiums have been factored in, total selling prices are expected to

average $879,623, or $265 per square foot. This positions the Subject above smaller lot product in Vista and further inland locations (Bonsall),

and below new home communities in Carlsbad and San Elijo with superior schools and more coastal locations. The total home price

positioning for the Subject provides a proximate alternative for buyers priced out of Carlsbad, that do not want to live in Bonsall, further from

employment, shopping and services.

• We estimate the 31 homes can sellout in approximately one year. This assumes a subdivision sales rate of 2.75 homes per month, which

is supported by the competitive market. We assumed initial sales could start by mid-2017. Construction timing and phasing could extend the

sellout.



Recommendations & Conclusions




Recommended Total Pricing Averages $879,623 or $265/SF We recommend total prices averaging $879,623, equating to $265 per square foot (in February 2016 dollars). The product and location will

appeal to growing families, empty nesters and retirees that desire single story living. The strong demand for single story homes in the area along

with the proposed lot sizes and dimensions could support three single story plans ranging from 2,700 to 3,500 square feet. A larger two story plan

of 3,900 square feet could also be offered to appeal to larger families or to provide larger yard areas. We recommend architectural plans be

defined and plotted to accurately determine appropriate floor plan sizes for the Subject lots. Base prices range from $770,000 to $860,000. An

incentive of $10,000 toward options/upgrades is recommended based on the competitive market. Option/upgrade spending is estimated to

average 7% of base pricing. Lot premiums of 2% of base pricing is reasonable given the Subject’s elevated location with partial views of the

surrounding hills and distant mountains, and lot sizes ranging from 10,035 to 15,565 square feet. Total recommended pricing ranges from

$829,300 to $919,300. HOA fees for detention basin and common area maintenance are estimated at $100 per month. Taxes are estimated at

1.09% of the purchase price.

COMMUNITY SPECIFICS RECOMMENDATIONS

Subject Property Name Mo Base Incentives Net Base Net Base Assumptions Total Payment Assumptions 80.0%

Location Size Sales Base Price/ Options / Price Price ($ Price/ Options / Estimated Total Price/ Monthly Base Addl Tax 4.0%

Product Details Sales Summary SF Level Pace Price SF Upgrades Reduction Impacting) SF Upgrades Premiums Price SF HOA Tax Rate Assess. Mo. Pmt.

Presidio Developer 2,700 1 2.75 $770,000 $285 ($10,000) $0 $770,000 $285 $53,900 $15,400 $829,300 $307 $100 1.09% 0.00% $4,021

Vista - 3,100 1 $805,000 $260 ($10,000) $0 $805,000 $260 $53,900 $15,400 $864,300 $279 $100 1.09% 0.00% $4,186

Product: Single Family Total Units: 31 3,500 1 $840,000 $240 ($10,000) $0 $840,000 $240 $53,900 $15,400 $899,300 $257 $100 1.09% 0.00% $4,352

Configuration: 10,035 Units Sold: 0 3,900 2 $860,000 $221 ($10,000) $0 $860,000 $221 $53,900 $15,400 $919,300 $236 $100 1.09% 0.00% $4,446

Lot Dimensions: 86'x117' 3 Months Sold: 0

Units Remaining: 31

% Remaining: 100%

Summary Statistics: 3,319 2.75 $820,323 $247 ($10,000) $0 $820,323 $247 $53,900 $15,400 $879,623 $265 $100 1.09% 0.00% $4,259



Steady Sales & Moderate Price Appreciation Expected With an anticipated market entry of mid-2017, we estimate the community could sellout in approximately one year based upon an average sales

rate of 2.75 homes per month. Construction timing and phasing could extend the sellout. We expect moderate price appreciation of 4% in 2016

followed by slowly declining appreciation through 2018. These price appreciation rates are supported by the recent 6% annual increase in the

Subject’s 92081 zip code and Economy.com projections of 4.5% in 2016 and 3.7% in 2018 for the existing single family home market.

2016 2017 2018

Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units Average Price 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

Presidio Single Family 10,035 31 $879,623 $914,807 $942,252 $961,097

31 $879,623 $914,807 $942,252 $961,097

2016 2017 2018

Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units SALES PACE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Presidio Single Family 10,035 31 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75

31 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75

Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units Avg Yr/Pace 2016 2017 2018

Presidio Single Family 10,035 31 15 17 14

31 15 0 17 14

COMMUNITY SUMMARY

COMMUNITY SUMMARY

COMMUNITY SUMMARY

TOTAL PRICE APPRECIATION SCHEDULE

ABSORPTION APPRECIATION SCHEDULE

HYPOTHETICAL COMMUNITY SELL OUT



Active & Recently Sold-out Communities Surveyed We identified the most comparable new home communities to the Subject within the North County market area, as summarized below.

Note: The recent 3 month sales rates reported are

from November 2015 through January 2016, and

reflect the slow season over the holidays and school

year when moving is less likely. Casero closed out

in January 2016 and New Crest Court has one

remaining home. The recent sales rates of these

communities were further reduced by the limited

selection of homes and lots.

BUILDER / UNIT COUNT SUMMARY SALES PACE AVERAGE HOME

ID COMMUNITY DEVELOPER CITY TOTAL SOLD REMAIN ALL 3 MO.

1 Insignia City Ventures Carlsbad 7,500 17 8 9 2.2 2.0

2 The Enclave South Coast Communities Carlsbad 7,800 11 7 4 0.9 1.7

3 New Crest Court Davidson Communities Carlsbad 10,500 16 15 1 0.9 0.7

4 The Vistas Toll Brothers Carlsbad 5,000 110 25 85 5.4 2.3

5 Arterro Davidson Communities Carlsbad 7,500 63 58 5 2.4 2.3

6 Casero Lennar Carlsbad 8,750 26 26 0 2.6 1.0

7 Sanctuary Richmond American San Elijo 8,000 62 50 12 2.7 4.0

8 The Grove Galey Homes Vista 21,780 10 0 10 NEW NEW

9 Laurel Pointe Pulte Vista 5,000 159 84 75 3.5 2.7

10 Olive Hill Pardee Bonsall 21,780 37 6 31 1.5 2.0

LOT

SIZE



The new home communities analyzed are located in the North County areas of Carlsbad, San Elijo, Vista and Bonsall, all within seven miles of

the Subject. A summary of the lot and home sizes, incentives, net base pricing, average options and lot premiums, and total pricing is shown

below. It should be noted that Casero closed out in January 2016 and the reported pricing may date back to late 2015. The positioning of the

Subject relative to these communities is provided on the following pages.

Surveyed New Home Communities Priced from ±$600K to $1.5M

UNIT SIZE RANGENET BASE PRICE RANGE*

(*AFTER PRICE REDUCING INCENTIVES) AVERAGE AVERAGE

TOTAL PRICE RANGE

(NET BASE + O/U + PREMIUMS)

COMMUNITY BUILDERLOT

SIZEMIN MAX AVG

PRICE

REDUCTION

OPTIONS /

UPGRADES

CLOSING $

/ OTHERTOTAL

% BASE

PRICEMIN MAX AVG

OPTIONS PREMIUMSMIN MAX AVG

Insignia City Ventures 7,500 2,458 4,356 3,707 $0 ($75,000) $0 ($75,000) -6% $1,299,990 $1,400,000 $1,350,243 $90,000 $0 $1,389,990 $1,490,000 $1,365,243

The Enclave South Coast Communities 7,800 2,660 4,049 3,285 $0 ($10,000) $0 ($10,000) -1% $1,034,900 $1,139,900 $1,089,567 $30,000 $0 $1,064,900 $1,169,900 $1,109,567

New Crest Court Davidson Communities 10,500 3,110 4,234 3,649 $0 $0 ($7,500) ($7,500) -1% $1,075,900 $1,329,900 $1,229,233 $75,000 $20,000 $1,170,900 $1,424,900 $1,324,233

The Vistas Toll Brothers 5,000 2,165 3,897 3,118 $0 $0 $0 $0 0% $834,995 $964,995 $906,995 $80,000 $20,000 $934,995 $1,064,995 $1,006,995

Arterro Davidson Communities 7,500 3,288 4,509 3,750 $0 ($10,000) $0 ($10,000) -1% $949,900 $1,106,900 $1,028,900 $80,000 $15,000 $1,044,900 $1,201,900 $1,113,900

Casero Lennar 8,750 2,798 4,180 3,411 $0 $0 $0 $0 0% $889,990 $1,040,990 $951,990 $20,000 $10,000 $919,990 $1,070,990 $981,990

Sanctuary Richmond American 8,000 2,864 4,213 3,583 $0 ($10,000) $0 ($10,000) -1% $823,990 $897,990 $865,740 $75,000 $75,000 $973,990 $1,047,990 $1,005,740

The Grove Galey Homes 21,780 3,139 3,759 3,401 $0 ($15,000) $0 ($15,000) -2% $900,000 $990,000 $938,000 $50,000 $20,000 $970,000 $1,060,000 $993,000

Laurel Pointe Pulte 5,000 2,582 3,576 3,095 $0 $0 ($12,248) ($12,248) -2% $599,990 $633,990 $612,390 $60,000 $25,000 $684,990 $718,990 $697,390

Olive Hill Pardee 21,780 2,962 3,846 3,312 $0 $0 ($5,000) ($5,000) -1% $692,625 $771,500 $729,313 $30,000 $30,000 $752,625 $831,500 $789,313

AVERAGES: 2,803 4,062 3,431 $0 ($12,000) ($2,475) ($14,475) -1% $910,228 $1,027,617 $970,237 $59,000 $21,500 $990,728 $1,108,117 $1,038,737

MEDIANS: 2,831 4,115 3,406 $0 ($5,000) $0 ($10,000) -1% $894,995 $1,015,495 $944,995 $67,500 $20,000 $971,995 $1,067,993 $1,006,368

BUYER INCENTIVES



$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

$1,500,000

2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600

NE

T B

AS

E P

RIC

E

UNIT SIZE (Square Feet)

Presidio (Vista) @ 2.75/mo.10,035; Developer

Insignia (Carlsbad) 2.22/mo.7,500; City Ventures ($75.0K)

The Enclave (Carlsbad) 0.87/mo.7,800; South Coast Communities ($10.0K)

New Crest Court (Carlsbad) 0.95/mo.10,500; Davidson Communities ($7.5K)

The Vistas (Robertson Ranch/Carlsbad) 5.41/mo.5,000; Toll Brothers (None)

Arterro (La Costa/Carlsbad) 2.43/mo.7,500; Davidson Communities ($10.0K)

Casero (Carlsbad) 2.62/mo.8,750; Lennar (None)

Sanctuary (San Elijo Hills/San Marcos) 2.73/mo.8,000; Richmond American ($10.0K)

The Grove (Vista) NEW/mo.21,780; Galey Homes ($15.0K)

Laurel Pointe (Vista) 3.53/mo.5,000; Pulte ($12.2K)

Olive Hill (Bonsall) 1.48/mo.21,780; Pardee ($5.0K)

Source: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices

Subject Base Pricing is Above Further Inland Bonsall Community

1-Story Plans = Filled Data Points

2-Story Plans = Non-Filled Data Points

The Subject base prices are reasonably positioned above the smaller lots of Laurel Pointe (Vista) and above Olive Hill’s location in Bonsall

further from employment, shopping and services. The communities in San Elijo and Carlsbad have superior schools and locations closer to the

coast and employment, allowing for higher pricing even though most lot sizes are smaller than the Subject. The Grove in north Vista has not

started sales and the pricing is preliminary. Its appealing rural surroundings of custom homes and larger ½ acre lots could allow for higher pricing

relative to the Subject.

Note that Casero closed out in

January 2016 and the reported

pricing may date back to late 2015.



$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

$1,500,000

2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600

TO

TA

L P

RIC

E














Total Pricing is Proximate Alternative For Buyers Priced Out of Carlsbad



Once factors such as options and premiums are added in, the Subject’s true positioning is revealed. We estimated average options and lot

premiums for the Subject of 7% and 2% of base pricing, respectively. Option spending at the competing communities ranges from 2% to 10% of

base pricing depending on price point and location, with an average of 6%. Lot premiums average 2.5% and range up to nearly 9% of base

pricing at the Sanctuary in San Elijo with ocean/territorial views. The total home price positioning for the Subject provides a proximate alternative

for buyers priced out of Carlsbad, that do not want to live in Bonsall, further from employment, shopping and services.






$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600

TO

TA

L M

ON

TH

LY

PA

YM

EN

T














On a monthly payment basis, the Subject’s positioning remains similar relative to the competitors. The Subject’s estimated monthly payments

shown here assume HOA dues of $100 per month and a total property tax rate of 1.09%. The competitive communities have HOA dues ranging

from $0 to $308 per month with overall tax rates ranging from 1.07% to 1.22%.

Subject’s Monthly Payments Are Competitively Positioned








0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

$600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000

Sa

les

Pe

r M

on

th

Average Net Base Price

Presidio - 10,035 sq ft, Developer, 2.75 sls per mo

Competitive Market - Historical Sales Pace

Competitive Market - Past 3 Months Sales Pace


Elasticity of Demand Shows Targeted Absorption is Supported This graph illustrates the inverse relationship between price and absorption in the competitive market. The recommended average absorption of

2.75 sales per month is supported by the historical sales rates of the competitive market. We would anticipate the overall sales rate for the

Subject to be lower than Laurel Pointe historically (priced ±$200,000 lower) and higher than Olive Hill (further from employment, shopping and

services). The lower recent 3 month sales rates reported are from November 2015 through January 2016, and reflect the slow season over the

holidays and school year when moving is less likely.

Olive Hill, Bonsall

Laurel Pointe, Vista



Resales Built 2005+ & Sold in Last 6 Months Analyzed As an additional check to our recommended total pricing, we analyzed resales within a 4-mile radius of the Subject over the last six months.

Source: Sandicor MLS; Meyers Research

Bressi Ranch, Carlsbad

Built 2005-2006

Casero, Carlsbad

Built 2015-2016

Calavera Hills, Carlsbad

Built 2005-2007

Foothills, Carlsbad

Built 2010-2015

Rancho Santalina

San Marcos

Built 2006-2014

Arbor Ranch

San Marcos

Built 2011

1 Resale

Oceanside

Built 2015

4-Mile Radius

Remainder of

resales are

located in Vista



On a total price basis the Subject is positioned below the majority of Carlsbad resales with their superior schools and locations closer to

employment and the coast. With the Carlsbad resales averaging 10 years old and on smaller lots, the Subject’s new home pricing on larger lots

could compel buyers to consider south Vista. The Subject is positioned above the older and less desirable 2-story resales in Vista which are

primarily located north of Highway 78. The Subject’s 3,900 square foot 2-story plan is positioned slightly below a 1-story home in Vista, built in

2015 on a ½ acre lot located half a mile east of the Subject. Resales in San Marcos have the smallest average lot sizes and are positioned lower.

Subject Positioned Below Carlsbad Resales With Better Schools

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 4,000 4,250 4,500 4,750

SA

LE

PR

ICE



4-Mile Radius, Built 2005+, L6M (Carlsbad)Avg. 6,713 SF Lots @ $832,307 ($306/SF)

4-Mile Radius, Built 2005+, L6M (Vista)Avg. 13,163 SF Lots @ $632,579 ($222/SF)

4-Mile Radius, Built 2005+, L6M (San Marcos)Avg. 5,760 SF Lots @ $568,625 ($220/SF)

Source: Meyers Research

AVERAGE

REFERENCE AREA DATE RANGE YEAR BUILT LOT SIZE SALES SF NET PRICE $/SF

4-Mile Radius, Built 2005+, L6M (Carlsbad) Aug. '15 to Feb. '16 2008 6,713 46 2,721 $832,307 $306

4-Mile Radius, Built 2005+, L6M (San Marcos) Aug. '15 to Feb. '16 2010 5,760 12 2,581 $568,625 $220

4-Mile Radius, Built 2005+, L6M (Vista) Aug. '15 to Feb. '16 2010 13,163 11 2,854 $632,579 $222





Majority of Subject Pads Range From ±70-90 Feet Wide

Lot

Pad Size

(SF)

Pad Width

(FT)

Pad Depth

(FT)

Buildable Width

(FT)

Buildable Depth

(FT)

19 13,234 52 130 33 107

13 11,018 54 120 34 90

18 15,565 54 154 34 124

24 10,990 67 137 55 95

12 10,213 69 109 52 80

16 10,246 70 114 53 84

20 10,982 74 110 60 80

25 12,165 75 158 59 117

14 10,653 76 102 57 71

31 12,346 76 106 65 66

15 10,797 77 136 60 94

11 11,078 77 125 61 91

17 10,073 79 89 57 59

3 10,525 81 111 61 81

2 10,347 82 116 63 81

6 10,831 82 109 63 77

23 11,271 82 131 65 88

29 11,562 83 130 65 88

30 10,035 83 110 66 68

9 11,660 84 118 67 87

1 11,559 84 80 70 60

22 12,007 85 138 62 95

7 11,520 87 125 67 90

8 11,521 87 125 67 90

21 11,769 89 122 62 92

28 12,027 89 121 65 89

5 12,575 90 115 72 80

27 12,410 92 117 76 81

10 11,801 102 118 67 87

26 13,580 114 89 98 56

4 14,639 140 70 130 60

Min 10,035 52 70 33 56

Avg 11,645 82 117 63 84

Max 15,565 140 158 130 124

1-story homes on pie shape lots will need to be

setback further to reach minimum buildable width

of ±45 feet, which may limit rear yard size.

Few Subject lots have pad dimensions that are similar to

competing new home communities offering 1-story homes

ranging from 3,759 to 3,846 square feet.

The pad sizes summarized in the table are sourced

from Tentative Subdivision Map PC No. 6-060.

Pad and buildable widths/depths are estimates by

Meyers Research, based on Google Earth

measurements from the site plan overlay. These

measurements were taken to provide a preliminary

assessment of 1-story home sizes that could be

built at the Subject. Pad and buildable widths were

measured from the front yard setback. Pad and

buildable depths reflect averages and take into

account irregular lot shapes. We recommend

architectural plans be defined and plotted to

accurately determine appropriate floor plan sizes

and dimensions for the Subject lots.



Lot & Floor Plan Details for Competing 1-Story Product

Project Name Builder City Built

Base

Lot Size

Base Lot

Dimensions

Total

Lots

1-Story

Lots

1-Story

Lot %

1-Story

SF

Plan Dimensions

(WxD)

1-Story

Plan Mix

1-Story

Plan Mix %

Min. Rear Yard

Depth (FT)

Insignia City Ventures Carlsbad 2016 7,500 65x115 17 3 18% 2,458 50x79 3 100% 7-20

The Enclave South Coast Communities Carlsbad 2016 7,800 60x130 11 3 27% 2,660 45x85 3 100% 15-27

New Crest Court Davidson Communities Carlsbad 2016 10,500 75x140 16 5 31% 3,110 56x95 5 100% 13-18

The Vistas Toll Brothers Carlsbad 2016 5,000 50x100 110 - - 2,165 40x85 - - -

Arterro Davidson Communities Carlsbad 2016 7,500 65x115 63 10 16% 3,288 46x77 10 100% 22

Casero Lennar Carlsbad 2015 8,750 70x125 26 6 23% 2,798 52x83 6 100% 10-20

Bressi Ranch - Carlsbad 2006 8,300 71x117 - - - 2,544 50x73 - - 10-18

3,280 50x100 - - 12-19

3,480 58x92 - - 13-17

3,523 57x90 - - 20

Sanctuary Richmond American San Marcos 2016 8,000 70x115 62 - - 2,864 54x78 - - 10-15

3,229 58x85 - - 15-25

The Grove Galey Homes Vista 2016 21,780 115x190 10 6 60% 3,158 75x73 3 50% 30-40

3,759 94x70 3 50% 25-40

Laurel Pointe Pulte Vista 2016 8,190 63x130 159 14 9% 2,582 - 14 100% -

Hilo Valley Estates Galey Homes Vista 2015 21,780 110x198 9 9 100% 2,725 80x50 3 33% 30

3,168 78x66 3 33% 35

3,324 95x70 3 33% 30

Catalina Orchards Galey Homes Vista 2013 21,780 100x217 4 4 100% 3,168 80x64 1 25% 50

3,209 80x64 1 25% 50

3,324 97x60 2 50% 35

Centennial Drive Hallmark Vista 2013 21,780 108x201 2 2 100% 2,586 76x62 2 100% 45

Hidden Sky Court Michael Crews Vista 2007 21,780 120x181 5 4 80% 2,748 108x53 2 50% 13-18

2,822 90x95 1 25% 16-33

3,104 90x78 1 25% 18-40

Vista De Oro - Vista 2003 21,780 105x207 18 - - 2,500 60x87 - - 35

2,814 62x62 - - 35

Olive Hill Pardee Bonsall 2016 21,780 100x217 37 37 100% 2,962 50x64 5 14% 12

3,018 57x71 12 32% 15-30

3,420 70x60 11 30% 25-40

3,846 72x64 9 24% 25-38

The table below summarizes the base lot sizes and dimensions for new home communities offering 1-story product since 2003 in North County.

Single level home sizes, overall plan dimensions (approximate), mix and minimum rear yard depths (approximate) are also detailed. Single level

home plans range from 2,165 to 3,846 square feet, on 5,000 square foot to half acre lots. Base lots range from ±50 to ±120 feet wide and from

±100 to ±217 feet deep. Home plans range from ±40 feet wide to ±108 feet deep, with minimum rear yard depths of ±10 to ±20 feet on lots under

10,000 square feet. Most of the coastal Carlsbad communities with smaller lots offer one single level plan, while inland communities on larger lots

offer two to four single level plans.




Subject’s 1-Story Plan Positioning in North County Market


The table below summarizes the 1-story product details from the previous exhibit, but sorted by home size. Based on the Subject’s lot sizes and

dimensions, we recommend offering three 1-story plans of 2,700, 3,100 and 3,500 square feet. Larger homes would require 2-story construction.

Project Name Builder City Built

Base Lot Size

(SF)

Base Lot

Dimensions

1-Story

(SF)

Plan Dimensions

(WxD)

Rear Yard Depth

(FT)

The Vistas Toll Brothers Carlsbad 2016 5,000 50x100 2,165 40x85 -

Insignia City Ventures Carlsbad 2016 7,500 65x115 2,458 50x79 7-20

Vista De Oro - Vista 2003 21,780 105x207 2,500 60x87 35

Bressi Ranch - Carlsbad 2006 8,300 71x117 2,544 50x73 10-18

Laurel Pointe Pulte Vista 2016 8,190 63x130 2,582 - -

Centennial Drive Hallmark Vista 2013 21,780 108x201 2,586 76x62 45

The Enclave South Coast Communities Carlsbad 2016 7,800 60x130 2,660 45x85 15-27

Subject - Vista - 10,035 86x117 2,700 - -

Hilo Valley Estates Galey Homes Vista 2015 21,780 110x198 2,725 80x50 30

Hidden Sky Court Michael Crews Vista 2007 21,780 120x181 2,748 108x53 13-18

Casero Lennar Carlsbad 2015 8,750 70x125 2,798 52x83 10-20

Vista De Oro - Vista 2003 21,780 105x207 2,814 62x62 35


Sanctuary Richmond American San Marcos 2016 8,000 70x115 2,864 54x78 10-15

Olive Hill Pardee Bonsall 2016 21,780 100x217 2,962 50x64 12

Olive Hill Pardee Bonsall 2016 21,780 100x217 3,018 57x71 15-30

Subject - Vista - 10,035 86x117 3,100 - -


New Crest Court Davidson Communities Carlsbad 2016 10,500 75x140 3,110 56x95 13-18

The Grove Galey Homes Vista 2016 21,780 115x190 3,158 75x73 30-40


Catalina Orchards Galey Homes Vista 2013 21,780 100x217 3,168 80x64 50


Sanctuary Richmond American San Marcos 2016 8,000 70x115 3,229 58x85 15-25


Arterro Davidson Communities Carlsbad 2016 7,500 65x115 3,288 46x77 22





Subject - Vista - 10,035 86x117 3,500 - -

Bressi Ranch - Carlsbad 2006 8,300 71x117 3,523 57x90 20

The Grove Galey Homes Vista 2016 21,780 115x190 3,759 94x70 25-40




Location Analysis




Employment Centers Within 15- to 30-Minute Drive of Subject

Source: Zonda; MapPoint; Meyers Research

The Subject property, located in the City of Vista, is within a 15-minute drive of the Palomar Airport/Carlsbad employment center and within ±30

minutes of the Sorrento Valley/UTC and Escondido/San Marcos employment nodes. Proximity to employment is a strength for the Subject.

Palomar Airport / Carlsbad Top Employers

Callaway Golf

Thermo Fisher Scientific

Carlsbad Unified School District

Gemological Institute of America

LEGOLAND

Taylor Made Golf Company

Omni La Costa Resort & Spa

City of Carlsbad

Park Hyatt Aviara Resort

Sorrento Valley / UTC Top Employers

University of California, San Diego (#1 in County)

Scripps Health (#7 in County)

Qualcomm (#8 in County)

Pfizer Pharmaceuticals

Optimer Pharmaceuticals

Arena Pharmaceuticals

Websense

Escondido / San Marcos Top Employers

Palomar Medical Center

Escondido Union School District

City of Escondido

Welk Group, Inc.

San Diego Safari Park

San Marcos Unified School District

Palomar Community College

California State University, San Marcos

Hunter Industries

30-Minute Drive

15-Minute Drive



The Subject is centrally located in North County between Carlsbad, San Marcos and Escondido. Melrose Drive provides convenient north-south

access to the Palomar Airport / Carlsbad employment node and Highway 78 provides east-west access to the coast, Interstate 5, San Marcos,

Escondido and Interstate 15. All of the points of interest shown in the map below are within a 15-minute drive of the Subject.

Subject is Proximate to Highways, Jobs, Shopping & Services

Starbucks, Food 4 Less, Restaurants,

LA Fitness, Petco, FedEx, Bank, CVS,

County Government Complex

Albertsons, Kohls, PetSmart,

Dicks Sporting Goods,

Home Depot, T.J. Maxx,

Banks, Restaurants

Palomar Airport / Carlsbad

Employment Node

Rancho Buena

Vista H.S

Breeze Hill

Elementary

Tri-City

Hospital

Costco

Lowes, Staples, BevMo, Cinepolis,

Waterpark, Restaurants

Madison Middle School,

Lake Park, Ralphs,

Walgreens, Pizza Hut,

Fast Food Restaurants

Source: Google, Meyers Research

Albertsons, UPS, CVS,

Jamba Juice, Subway,

Sushi, Banks

Palomar

Medical

Center

Palomar

College

Cal State

University

San Marcos

Stone

Brewing

Escondido / San Marcos

Employment Node

LEGOLAND

Callaway

Golf



Subject Offers More Rural Setting Close to Carlsbad

City of

Carlsbad

The Subject’s immediate surroundings include rolling hills, narrow roads, ½ acre lots and mostly single level homes. Carlsbad is within one mile.

Breeze Hill

Elementary

Madison

Middle School



Views of Surrounding Hills & Distant Mountains from Subject The rolling topography of the immediate area and proposed elevations of the Subject lots will offer some views of the surrounding hills and

distant mountains. Ridge Road (below) provides access to the Subject (on left). An equestrian rail fence and oak trees will line Ridge Road.

View to East

along Ridge Road

View to North



The Subject will be served by the Vista Unified School District. Based on current school boundaries, students residing at the Subject will attend

Breeze Hill Elementary, Madison Middle and Ranch Buena Vista High schools. Within the Vista Unified School District, the elementary and

middle schools assigned to the Subject rank high at 5th (out of 16 schools) and 2nd (out of 5 schools), respectively. The Subject’s high school

performs below average when compared to other high schools in Vista. When compared to the surrounding school districts and schools assigned

to competing new home communities, the Subject’s schools rank lower than most competing communities. The lower ranked Subject schools are

reflected in the recommended pricing.

Subject Schools Rank Lower Than Most Communities Surveyed

Rank District API Rank District API Rank School District Community API

1 Rancho Santa Fe Elementary 958 22 Ramona City Unified 816 1 El Camino Creek Encinitas Union Arterro 953

2 Del Mar Union Elementar 955 23 Julian Union Elementary 814 2 Mission Estancia Encinitas Union Arterro 945

3 Solana Beach Elementary 938 24 Cajon Valley Union 812 3 Aviara Oaks Carlsbad Unified New Crest 940

4 Cardiff Elementary 917 25 San Diego Unified 809 4 San Elijo San Marcos Unified Sanctuary 937

5 Encinitas Union Elementary 914 26 Lakeside Union Elementary 807 5 Bonsall Bonsall Unified Olive Hill 896

6 Coronado Unified 897 27 San Ysidro Elementary 802 6 Kelly Carlsbad Unified The Vistas, Casero 909

7 San Dieguito Union High 897 28 National Elementary 792 7 Magnolia Carlsbad Unified Insignia, The Enclave 900

8 Poway Unified 894 29 Sweetwater Union High 792 8 Empressa Vista Unified Laurel Pointe 864

9 Bonsall Union Elementary 890 State of California 790 9 Breeze Hill (#5 of 16 in Vista) Vista Unified Subject 836

10 San Pasqual Union Elementary 882 30 Vista Unified 788 10 Monte Vista Vista Unified The Grove 817

11 Spencer Valley Elementary 881 31 Lemon Grove 787

12 Carlsbad Unified 876 32 Oceanside Unified 787

13 San Marcos Unified 870 33 Grossmont Union High 769 Rank School District Community API

14 Chula Vista Elementary 863 34 South Bay Union 766 1 Diegueno San Dieguito Union High Arterro 924

15 Vallecitos Elementary 863 35 Escondido Union 758 2 San Elijo San Marcos Unified Sanctuary 919

16 Santee 862 36 Escondido Union High 745 3 Aviara Oaks Carlsbad Unified New Crest 918

17 Alpine Union Elementary 848 37 Fallbrook Union High 744 4 Norman L. Sullivan Bonsall Unified Olive Hill 880

18 Jamul-Dulzura Union Elementary 843 38 Dehesa Elementary 736 5 Valley Carlsbad Unified The Vistas, Insignia, The Enclave, Casero 869

19 Fallbrook Union Elementary 836 39 Borrego Springs Unified 730 6 Madison (#2 of 5 in Vista) Vista Unified Subject 834

20 La Mesa-Spring Valley 828 40 Warner Unified 728 7 Roosevelt Vista Unified Laurel Pointe 817

21 Valley Center-Pauma Unified 819 41 Mountain Empire Unified 722 8 Rancho Minerva Vista Unified The Grove 726

Source: California Department of Education, Meyers Research

Rank School District Community API

1 La Costa Canyon San Dieguito Union High Arterro 859

2 San Marcos San Marcos Unified Sanctuary 858

3 Carlsbad or Sage Creek Carlsbad Unified The Vistas, New Crest, Insignia, The Enclave, Casero 840

4 Rancho Buena Vista (#3 of 4 in Vista) Vista Unified Subject and The Grove 777

5 Fallbrook Fallbrook Union Olive Hill 751

6 Vista Vista Unified Laurel Pointe 739

Note: Sage Creek High School opened recently and does not have an API score.

High Schools

San Diego CountySan Diego County Elementary Schools

Middle Schools



Housing Market Overview




SFD Building Permits Slowly Increasing With Limited Land Residential building permit issuances reflect the volume of new homes being built in the County. After a steady decline of total permits through

2009, multi-family permits have rebounded with strong demand and capital for rental housing. Single family permits have lagged in the recovery

due to limited availability of developable land. The most notable increase in single family permits was in 2015 with nearly 1,000 more permits

than 2014. Over the next few years, single family permits are projected to gradually increase closer to the historical average of 5,600 permits per

year and multi-family permits are projected to peak in 2016 and then decline towards the historical annual average of 4,150 multi-family permits.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

F

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

20

20

F

Resid

en

tial

Bu

ild

ing

Perm

its

MF Building Permits SFD Building Permits

Source: Economy.com

San Diego- Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Ten Year History Economy.com Five- Year Forecast

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Total Building Permits 9,191 7,435 5,357 2,946 3,494 5,370 5,666 8,264 6,875 11,725 12,285 11,135 9,896 9,195 9,551

Annual % Change - 35.8% - 19.1% - 27.9% - 45.0% 18.6% 53.7% 5.5% 45.9% - 16.8% 70.5% 4.8% - 9.4% - 11.1% - 7.1% 3.9%

SFD Building Permits 4,743 3,422 2,361 1,778 2,270 2,245 2,197 2,565 2,487 3,480 3,939 4,642 5,100 5,208 5,472

Annual % Change - 37.4% - 27.9% - 31.0% - 24.7% 27.7% - 1.1% - 2.1% 16.8% - 3.0% 39.9% 13.2% 17.9% 9.9% 2.1% 5.1%

MF Building Permits 4,448 4,013 2,996 1,168 1,224 3,125 3,469 5,699 4,388 8,245 8,346 6,493 4,796 3,986 4,079

Annual % Change - 33.9% - 9.8% - 25.3% - 61.0% 4.8% 155.3% 11.0% 64.3% - 23.0% 87.9% 1.2% - 22.2% - 26.1% - 16.9% 2.3%

Residential Building Permit

History & Forecasts

Historical Total Building

Permit Average of 9,758



Existing SFD Pricing & Sales on the Rise in San Diego County Median pricing for existing single family home sales in San Diego County reached a low of $358,190 in 2009 and remained relatively stable

through 2011. Since 2011, existing single family median home prices increased 45% through 2015 to $538,620. The annual percentage

increases ranged from 4% to 20%, averaging 10% per year (higher than the historical average of 6% per year). Price increases have moderated

over the last two years and that trend is projected to continue through 2018. Sales of existing single family homes quickly rebounded after 2007

and exceeded the historical annual average of 36,400 sales in four of the last eight years. Existing single family home sales are projected to

surpass 40,000 in 2016 and then return to levels similar to the last few years.

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

F

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

20

20

F

Med

ian

Pri

ce

Sale

s V

olu

me

Source: Economy.com

San Diego- Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Ten Year History Economy.com Five- Year Forecast

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Annual Existing SFD Sales 27,150 22,050 32,680 37,030 37,940 37,410 32,140 33,140 32,600 37,250 41,480 37,540 33,650 33,500 34,170

Prior Year Change - 28.0% - 18.8% 48.2% 13.3% 2.5% - 1.4% - 14.1% 3.1% - 1.6% 14.3% 11.4% - 9.5% - 10.4% - 0.4% 2.0%

Median Existing SFD Sales Price $600,390 $580,000 $409,640 $358,470 $385,190 $370,600 $384,680 $460,620 $499,460 $538,620 $562,760 $583,960 $605,330 $638,230 $683,270

Prior Year Change - 0.4% - 3.4% - 29.4% - 12.5% 7.5% - 3.8% 3.8% 19.7% 8.4% 7.8% 4.5% 3.8% 3.7% 5.4% 7.1%

Existing SFD History

& Forecasts



Limited New SFD Housing in County has Pushed Prices Higher Median pricing for new single family home sales in San Diego County reached a low of $505,000 in 2009 and remained relatively stable through

2011. Since 2011, new single family median home prices increased 59% through 2015 to $836,979. The annual percentage increases ranged

from 9% to 15%, averaging 12% per year (higher than the historical average of 7% per year). Price increases have moderated over the last two

years, returning closer to the historical average. Sales of new single family homes have remained below 2,000 per year after hitting a low of

1,276 in 2009. This is due to the limited availability of developable land in the County caused by topographical and entitlement challenges, as

mentioned on the previous building permit exhibit. New single family home sales will likely remain below the historical average of 3,375 sales per

year in the near-term. Stronger demand than supply of new single family housing could allow for continued home price increases.

San Diego- Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Ten Year History

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual New SFD Sales 3,275 2,269 1,465 1,276 1,786 1,655 1,852 1,834 1,547 1,307

Prior Year Change - 29.0% - 30.7% - 35.4% - 12.9% 40.0% - 7.3% 11.9% - 1.0% - 15.6% - 15.5%

Median New SFD Sales Price $831,500 $744,500 $659,000 $505,000 $540,000 $525,500 $597,000 $688,000 $770,000 $836,979

Prior Year Change 3.9% - 10.5% - 11.5% - 23.4% 6.9% - 2.7% 13.6% 15.2% 11.9% 8.7%

New SFD History

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Med

ian

Pri

ce

Sale

s V

olu

me




The Subject is located in the 92081 zip code of Vista, south of Highway 78. Buyers interested in the Subject location may also consider the more

coastal 92010 zip code of Carlsbad (with better schools) or the more inland 92084 zip code of Vista, north of Highway 78.

Local Housing Market Trends Analyzed

Source: ESRI, Meyers Research

92010 Zip Code

(Carlsbad)

92081 Zip Code

(Vista)

92081 Zip Code

(Vista)



473

218

603

347

730

461

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

12

/00

3/0

1

6/0

1

9/0

1

12

/01

3/0

2

6/0

2

9/0

2

12

/02

3/0

3

6/0

3

9/0

3

12

/03

3/0

4

6/0

4

9/0

4

12

/04

3/0

5

6/0

5

9/0

5

12

/05

3/0

6

6/0

6

9/0

6

12

/06

3/0

7

6/0

7

9/0

7

12

/07

3/0

8

6/0

8

9/0

8

12

/08

3/0

9

6/0

9

9/0

9

12

/09

3/1

0

6/1

0

9/1

0

12

/10

3/1

1

6/1

1

9/1

1

12

/11

3/1

2

6/1

2

9/1

2

12

/12

3/1

3

6/1

3

9/1

3

12

/13

3/1

4

6/1

4

9/1

4

12

/14

3/1

5

6/1

5

9/1

5

12

/15

Sale

s

Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Detached Sales

92010 Zip Code (Carlsbad) 92081 Zip Code (Subject-Vista) 92084 Zip Code (Vista)

Source: Collateral Analytics

92081 Z

ip C

od

e (

Su

bje

ct-

Vis

ta)

& 9

2084 Z

ip C

od

e (

Vis

ta)

Single Family Home Sales Trending Upward in Vista Single family detached home sales in Vista have been trending upward since 2008, with well defined seasonal fluctuations. The Subject’s 92081

zip code has fewer sales historically than the 92084 of Vista due to the smaller area / housing inventory of the 92081 zip code. Home sales in

Vista still have room to rise as current sales volumes are 60% of the previous highs in 2002 and 2004. On the contrary, single family home sales

in the 92010 zip code of Carlsbad have been trending downward since mid-2013, which could in part be attributed to limited developable land.

Lower sales volume of the 92010 zip code relative to the Vista zip codes is once again due to land area and inventory differences. Declining

sales volume in Carlsbad could drive home buyers further west into Vista.

NOTE: Data from Collateral Analytics is included for perspective

on local home sales volume and pricing trends. While including

new construction, it is more reflective of existing homes.



$668,083

$649,500

$584,333 $512,083

$629,500

$478,167

$150,000

$250,000

$350,000

$450,000

$550,000

$650,000

$750,000

12

/00

3/0

1

6/0

1

9/0

1

12

/01

3/0

2

6/0

2

9/0

2

12

/02

3/0

3

6/0

3

9/0

3

12

/03

3/0

4

6/0

4

9/0

4

12

/04

3/0

5

6/0

5

9/0

5

12

/05

3/0

6

6/0

6

9/0

6

12

/06

3/0

7

6/0

7

9/0

7

12

/07

3/0

8

6/0

8

9/0

8

12

/08

3/0

9

6/0

9

9/0

9

12

/09

3/1

0

6/1

0

9/1

0

12

/10

3/1

1

6/1

1

9/1

1

12

/11

3/1

2

6/1

2

9/1

2

12

/12

3/1

3

6/1

3

9/1

3

12

/13

3/1

4

6/1

4

9/1

4

12

/14

3/1

5

6/1

5

9/1

5

12

/15

Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Detached Price



Single Family Home Prices Increasing in Vista The average single family home price (existing and new) in the Subject’s 92081 zip code increased 39% since January 2013 ($369,167),

averaging 12.9% per year or 1.1% per month. Home price increases were strongest through May 2014, averaging 1.7% per month, and have

since averaged 0.5% per month. The 92084 zip code of Vista followed a similar trend, but home prices started increasing earlier. Current

average home prices in Vista remain below the previous highs of 2005 and 2007, which could allow for additional price increases. The 92010 zip

code of Carlsbad is priced over $100,000 more than the Subject’s zip code and reached a new average high in April 2015. The average price has

since declined, possibly indicating a period of price stabilization or lower appreciation in the near-term. Lower home prices in Vista, below the

previous highs, could become more attractive to developers and buyers over the next few years.





Presidio Vista – Vista, CA 35

Price Per Square Foot Continues to Increase in All Zip Codes The average price per square foot in all areas has been increasing since 2012. Similar to the previous exhibit, pricing in Vista remains below the

previous highs while Carlsbad reached a new high. The faster rate of increase in the 92010 zip code of Carlsbad over the last year may in part be

due to the building of smaller homes to keep prices in reach of buyers, and/or higher construction costs.

$321

$324

$316

$271

$318 $318

$256

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

12

/00

3/0

1

6/0

1

9/0

1

12

/01

3/0

2

6/0

2

9/0

2

12

/02

3/0

3

6/0

3

9/0

3

12

/03

3/0

4

6/0

4

9/0

4

12

/04

3/0

5

6/0

5

9/0

5

12

/05

3/0

6

6/0

6

9/0

6

12

/06

3/0

7

6/0

7

9/0

7

12

/07

3/0

8

6/0

8

9/0

8

12

/08

3/0

9

6/0

9

9/0

9

12

/09

3/1

0

6/1

0

9/1

0

12

/10

3/1

1

6/1

1

9/1

1

12

/11

3/1

2

6/1

2

9/1

2

12

/12

3/1

3

6/1

3

9/1

3

12

/13

3/1

4

6/1

4

9/1

4

12

/14

3/1

5

6/1

5

9/1

5

12

/15

Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Detached Price per Square Foot








Appendix




Competitive Project Detail COMMUNITY SPECIFICS AND SALES PACE FLOORPLAN SUMMARY COMPETITIVE MARKET PRICING SUMMARY

Project Name Builder Name Base Current Incentives Net Base Net Base Typical Total Monthly Payment Inputs 80.0%

Location Master Plan Size Base Price/ Price Options / Closing $ / Price ($ Price/ Options / Total Price/ Monthly Base Addl 4.0%

Product Details Sales Summary SF Bed Bath Level Pkg Price Sq. Ft. Reduction Upgrades Other Reduction) Sq. Ft. Upgrades Premiums Price SF HOA Tax Taxes Mo.Pmt.

Insignia City Ventures 2,458 3 2.5 1 2 $1,300,990 $529 $0 ($75,000) $0 $1,300,990 $529 $90,000 $0 $1,315,990 $535 $0 1.07% 0.00% $6,196

Carlsbad - 3,953 4 4.5 2 3T $1,400,000 $354 $0 ($75,000) $0 $1,400,000 $354 $90,000 $0 $1,415,000 $358 $0 1.07% 0.00% $6,663

Product: Single Family Total Units: 17 4,060 3 3.5 2 3 $1,299,990 $320 $0 ($75,000) $0 $1,299,990 $320 $90,000 $0 $1,314,990 $324 $0 1.07% 0.00% $6,192

Configuration: 7,500 Units Sold: 8 4,356 3 4.5 2 3T $1,399,990 $321 $0 ($75,000) $0 $1,399,990 $321 $90,000 $0 $1,414,990 $325 $0 1.07% 0.00% $6,662

Lot Dimensions: 65x115 3 Months Sold: 6 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Sales Open Date: Oct-15 Units Remaining: 9 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Overall Sales Rate: 2.2 % Remaining: 53% #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

3 Mon. Sales Rate: 2.0 - #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Totals/Averages: 3,707 $1,350,243 $364 $0 ($75,000) $0 $1,350,243 $364 $90,000 $0 $1,365,243 $368 $0 1.07% 0.00% $6,428

The Enclave South Coast Communities 2,660 4 3.5 1 2 $1,034,900 $389 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,034,900 $389 $30,000 $0 $1,054,900 $397 $212 1.08% 0.00% $5,190

Carlsbad - 3,145 4 3.5 2 2 $1,093,900 $348 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,093,900 $348 $30,000 $0 $1,113,900 $354 $212 1.08% 0.00% $5,469

Product: Single Family Total Units: 11 4,049 4 3.5 2 2 $1,139,900 $282 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,139,900 $282 $30,000 $0 $1,159,900 $286 $212 1.08% 0.00% $5,686

Configuration: 7,800 Units Sold: 7 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A


Sales Open Date: Jun-15 Units Remaining: 4 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Totals/Averages: 3,285 $1,089,567 $332 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,089,567 $332 $30,000 $0 $1,109,567 $338 $212 1.08% 0.00% $5,448

New Crest Court Davidson Communities 3,110 3 3.5 1 3T $1,075,900 $346 $0 $0 ($7,500) $1,075,900 $346 $75,000 $20,000 $1,170,900 $376 $191 1.07% 0.00% $5,710

Carlsbad - 3,603 4 4.5 2 3T $1,281,900 $356 $0 $0 ($7,500) $1,281,900 $356 $75,000 $20,000 $1,376,900 $382 $191 1.07% 0.00% $6,681

Product: Single Family Total Units: 16 4,234 5 4.5 2 3T $1,329,900 $314 $0 $0 ($7,500) $1,329,900 $314 $75,000 $20,000 $1,424,900 $337 $191 1.07% 0.00% $6,907






Totals/Averages: 3,649 $1,229,233 $337 $0 $0 ($7,500) $1,229,233 $337 $75,000 $20,000 $1,324,233 $363 $191 1.07% 0.00% $6,433

The Vistas Toll Brothers 2,165 3 3.5 1 2 $834,995 $386 $0 $0 $0 $834,995 $386 $80,000 $20,000 $934,995 $432 $266 1.07% 0.16% $4,798

Carlsbad Robertson Ranch 3,052 4 4.5 2 2 $889,995 $292 $0 $0 $0 $889,995 $292 $80,000 $20,000 $989,995 $324 $266 1.07% 0.15% $5,058

Product: Single Family Total Units: 110 3,124 4 4.5 2 2 $909,995 $291 $0 $0 $0 $909,995 $291 $80,000 $20,000 $1,009,995 $323 $266 1.07% 0.15% $5,152

Configuration: 5,000 Units Sold: 25 3,352 5 5.5 2 2 $934,995 $279 $0 $0 $0 $934,995 $279 $80,000 $20,000 $1,034,995 $309 $266 1.07% 0.15% $5,270

Lot Dimensions: 50x100 3 Months Sold: 7 3,897 5 5.5 2 2 $964,995 $248 $0 $0 $0 $964,995 $248 $80,000 $20,000 $1,064,995 $273 $266 1.07% 0.14% $5,411

Sales Open Date: Sep-15 Units Remaining: 85 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Totals/Averages: 3,118 $906,995 $291 $0 $0 $0 $906,995 $291 $80,000 $20,000 $1,006,995 $323 $266 1.07% 0.15% $5,138

Arterro Davidson Communities 3,288 3 3.5 1.5 3 $970,900 $295 $0 ($10,000) $0 $970,900 $295 $80,000 $15,000 $1,055,900 $321 $158 1.05% 0.12% $5,222

Carlsbad La Costa 3,380 3 4.0 2 3 $949,900 $281 $0 ($10,000) $0 $949,900 $281 $80,000 $15,000 $1,034,900 $306 $158 1.05% 0.13% $5,123

Product: Single Family Total Units: 63 3,822 5 5.5 2 3T $1,106,900 $290 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,106,900 $290 $80,000 $15,000 $1,191,900 $312 $158 1.05% 0.11% $5,860

Configuration: 7,500 Units Sold: 58 4,509 4 4.5 2 3T $1,087,900 $241 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,087,900 $241 $80,000 $15,000 $1,172,900 $260 $158 1.05% 0.11% $5,771


Sales Open Date: Feb-14 Units Remaining: 5 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Totals/Averages: 3,750 $1,028,900 $274 $0 ($10,000) $0 $1,028,900 $274 $80,000 $15,000 $1,113,900 $297 $158 1.05% 0.12% $5,494

Note: The recent 3 month sales rates reported are from November

2015 through January 2016, and reflect the slow season over the




Casero Lennar 2,798 4 3.0 1 2 $889,990 $318 $0 $0 $0 $889,990 $318 $20,000 $10,000 $919,990 $329 $198 1.07% 0.00% $4,532

Carlsbad - 3,255 5 4.0 2 3T $924,990 $284 $0 $0 $0 $924,990 $284 $20,000 $10,000 $954,990 $293 $198 1.07% 0.00% $4,697

Product: Single Family Total Units: 26 4,180 5 5.0 2 3T $1,040,990 $249 $0 $0 $0 $1,040,990 $249 $20,000 $10,000 $1,070,990 $256 $198 1.07% 0.00% $5,243



Sales Open Date: Mar-15 Units Remaining: 0 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Totals/Averages: 3,411 $951,990 $279 $0 $0 $0 $951,990 $279 $20,000 $10,000 $981,990 $288 $198 1.07% 0.00% $4,824

Sanctuary Richmond American 2,864 3 2.5 1 2 $823,990 $288 $0 ($10,000) $0 $823,990 $288 $75,000 $75,000 $963,990 $337 $82 1.09% 0.07% $4,697

San Marcos San Elijo Hills 3,229 3 3.5 1 2 $848,990 $263 $0 ($10,000) $0 $848,990 $263 $75,000 $75,000 $988,990 $306 $82 1.09% 0.07% $4,815

Product: Single Family Total Units: 62 4,024 4 4.0 2 3T $891,990 $222 $0 ($10,000) $0 $891,990 $222 $75,000 $75,000 $1,031,990 $256 $82 1.09% 0.07% $5,018

Configuration: 8,000 Units Sold: 50 4,213 4 4.5 2 3T $897,990 $213 $0 ($10,000) $0 $897,990 $213 $75,000 $75,000 $1,037,990 $246 $82 1.09% 0.07% $5,047


Sales Open Date: Jul-14 Units Remaining: 12 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Totals/Averages: 3,583 $865,740 $242 $0 ($10,000) $0 $865,740 $242 $75,000 $75,000 $1,005,740 $281 $82 1.09% 0.07% $4,894

The Grove Galey Homes 3,139 4 3.5 2 3 $900,000 $287 $0 ($15,000) $0 $900,000 $287 $50,000 $20,000 $955,000 $304 $170 1.09% 0.00% $4,685

Vista - 3,158 4 3.5 1 3 $900,000 $285 $0 ($15,000) $0 $900,000 $285 $50,000 $20,000 $955,000 $302 $170 1.09% 0.00% $4,685

Product: Single Family Total Units: 10 3,475 4 3.5 2 3 $950,000 $273 $0 ($15,000) $0 $950,000 $273 $50,000 $20,000 $1,005,000 $289 $170 1.09% 0.00% $4,921

Configuration: 21,780 Units Sold: 0 3,475 4 3.5 2 3 $950,000 $273 $0 ($15,000) $0 $950,000 $273 $50,000 $20,000 $1,005,000 $289 $170 1.09% 0.00% $4,921

Lot Dimensions: 115x190 3 Months Sold: 0 3,759 4 3.5 1 3 $990,000 $263 $0 ($15,000) $0 $990,000 $263 $50,000 $20,000 $1,045,000 $278 $170 1.09% 0.00% $5,110

Sales Open Date: Mar-16 Units Remaining: 10 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Overall Sales Rate: NEW % Remaining: 100% #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

3 Mon. Sales Rate: NEW - #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Totals/Averages: 3,401 $938,000 $276 $0 ($15,000) $0 $938,000 $276 $50,000 $20,000 $993,000 $292 $170 1.09% 0.00% $4,865

Laurel Pointe Pulte 2,582 4 3.5 1 2 $602,990 $234 $0 $0 ($12,060) $602,990 $234 $60,000 $25,000 $687,990 $266 $252 1.09% 0.10% $3,563

Vista - 2,882 4 2.5 2 2 $599,990 $208 $0 $0 ($12,000) $599,990 $208 $60,000 $25,000 $684,990 $238 $252 1.09% 0.10% $3,549

Product: Single Family Total Units: 159 3,067 3 2.5 2 2 $607,990 $198 $0 $0 ($12,160) $607,990 $198 $60,000 $25,000 $692,990 $226 $252 1.09% 0.10% $3,587

Configuration: 5,000 Units Sold: 84 3,368 4 2.5 2 3T $616,990 $183 $0 $0 ($12,340) $616,990 $183 $60,000 $25,000 $701,990 $208 $252 1.09% 0.10% $3,629

Lot Dimensions: 50x100 3 Months Sold: 8 3,576 4 2.5 2 3T $633,990 $177 $0 $0 ($12,680) $633,990 $177 $60,000 $25,000 $718,990 $201 $252 1.09% 0.10% $3,709

Sales Open Date: Feb-14 Units Remaining: 75 #N/A ### ### ### ### #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A



Totals/Averages: 3,095 $612,390 $198 $0 $0 ($12,248) $612,390 $198 $60,000 $25,000 $697,390 $225 $252 1.09% 0.10% $3,607

Olive Hill Pardee 2,962 4 3.0 1 3 $692,625 $234 $0 $0 ($5,000) $692,625 $234 $30,000 $30,000 $752,625 $254 $308 1.07% 0.01% $3,858

Bonsall - 3,018 4 3.0 1 3 $714,625 $237 $0 $0 ($5,000) $714,625 $237 $30,000 $30,000 $774,625 $257 $308 1.07% 0.01% $3,962

Product: Single Family Total Units: 37 3,420 4 3.0 1 3 $738,500 $216 $0 $0 ($5,000) $738,500 $216 $30,000 $30,000 $798,500 $233 $308 1.07% 0.01% $4,075

Configuration: 21,780 Units Sold: 6 3,846 5 3.5 1 3 $771,500 $201 $0 $0 ($5,000) $771,500 $201 $30,000 $30,000 $831,500 $216 $308 1.07% 0.01% $4,230





Totals/Averages: 3,312 $729,313 $220 $0 $0 ($5,000) $729,313 $220 $30,000 $30,000 $789,313 $238 $308 1.07% 0.01% $4,031

Competitive Project Detail COMMUNITY SPECIFICS AND SALES PACE FLOORPLAN SUMMARY COMPETITIVE MARKET PRICING SUMMARY

Project Name Builder Name Base Current Incentives Net Base Net Base Typical Total Monthly Payment Inputs 80.0%

Location Master Plan Size Base Price/ Price Options / Closing $ / Price ($ Price/ Options / Total Price/ Monthly Base Addl 4.0%

Product Details Sales Summary SF Bed Bath Level Pkg Price Sq. Ft. Reduction Upgrades Other Reduction) Sq. Ft. Upgrades Premiums Price SF HOA Tax Taxes Mo.Pmt.

Note: The recent 3 month sales rates reported are from November

2015 through January 2016, and reflect the slow season over the


February 2016 | Presidio Vista, LLC


PRICING & ABSORPTION ANALYSIS

Presidio Vista – A Proposed Residential Community of 31 Single Family Lots in Vista, California

Documents

PRICING & ABSORPTION ANALYSIS - Lee & Associates: Commercial Real …€¦ · This market analysis was prepared by Meyers Research, a market research and consulting firm specializing