Presidential Politics in Michigan - Wayne State University · a"The large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972

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Presidential Politics in Michigan

Dr. Lyke Thompson, Dr. Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, and

Jason HardacreWayne State University

Fall 2004

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Model of the major influences that decide the winner of the Presidential election in

Michigan

H i s to r y

E c o n o m ic C l im a te

R e p o s i t i o n in g o f P o l i t i c a l P a r t i e s

G r o u n d C a m p a ig n

M o n e y

C u r r e n t E v e n t s

T u r n o u t

M e d ia

L e g a l C o n te x t

P r e s id e n t i a l E le c t io n

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History of Michigan Presidential Elections

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Share of popular vote among political parties in Michigan, 1892-2000

Source: www.uselectionatlas.org

Note: In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a member of the Bull Moose Party and won a majority of the Michigan popular vote. He ran as a Republican in 1904.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

Year

Perc

enta

ge o

f Vot

e

DemocratsRepublicansOthers

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1988 U.S. Presidential Election ResultsMichigan

George H. W. Bush (R)Michael S. Dukakis (D)

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received.

45.67%1,675,783Michael S. Dukakis (D)

Vote Tally

100.00%3,669,163Total

0.76%27,894Others

53.57%1,965,486George H. W. Bush (R)

Percentage of Total VoteNumber of VotesCandidate

Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org

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George H. W. Bush (R)William J. Clinton (D)

19.30%824,813H. Ross Perot (I)

43.77%1,871,182William J. Clinton (D)

Vote Tally

100.00%4,274,673Total

0.55%23,738Others

36.38%1,554,940George H. W. Bush (R)




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8.75%336,670H. Ross Perot (RF)

38.48%1,481,212Robert J. Dole (R)

Vote Tally

100.00%3,848,844Total

1.08%41,309Others

51.69%1,989,653William J. Clinton (D)


William J. Clinton (D)Robert J. Dole (R)



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46.14%1,953,139George W. Bush (R)

Vote Tally

100.00%4,232,711Total

2.58%109,154Others

51.28%2,170,418Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D)


Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D)George W. Bush (R)



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Economic Climate of Michigan

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Total Non-farm Employees in Michigan,January 2001 – September 2004

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4,300

4,350

4,400

4,450

4,500

4,550

4,600

4,650

Janu

ary-2

001

April-2

001

July-

2001

Octobe

r-200

1

Janu

ary-2

002

April-2

002

July-

2002

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r-200

2

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ary-2

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April-2

003

July-

2003

Octobe

r-200

3

Janu

ary-2

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April-2

004

July-

2004

Month-Year

Num

ber

(in th

ousa

nds)

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Unemployment Rate in Michigan, by County

Source: Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth

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Unemployment Rate, Michigan v. NationalJanuary 2001 to September 2004


3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%

Janu

ary-2

000

July-

2000

Janu

ary-2

001

July-

2001

Janu

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July-

2002

Janu

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July-

2003

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July-

2004

Time

Perc

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MichiganNational

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Unemployed Citizens in Michigan,Average Number of Weeks,January 2001 – August 2004


10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04

Month/Year

Ave

rage

Num

ber o

f Wee

ks

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Repositioning of Political Parties in Michigan

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• Up to the early 1980s, the political parties, including the Republicans, had conservative, moderate, and liberal factions.

• With the election of John Engler, a conservative Republican, in 1990 the Michigan Republican Party moved further and further to the right. The Democrats did move somewhat to the right, but not as much.

• Therefore, Al Gore, a Democrat, won the Republican stronghold of Oakland County because its citizens did not necessarily shift with the Republican Party.

• In addition, Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick Posthumus for the Governor’s race in 2002.

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Ground Campaign in Michigan and Turnout

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Number of Registered Voters in Michigan, 2000, 2002, 2004

6,650,000

6,700,000

6,750,000

6,800,000

6,850,000

6,900,000

6,950,000

7,000,000

7,050,000

7,100,000

2000(a) 2002(b) 2004(c)

Year

Num

ber

Source: Michigan Department of State

Notes: (a) Data from October, 10, 2000; (b) Data from October 07, 2002; (c) Data from September 24, 2002 as cited in the Detroit Free Press.

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Year Number Voting Number RegisteredVoting Age

Population (VAP) Turnout (% of VAP)1948 2,109,609 Not Available 4,041,000 52.2%1952 2,798,592 Not Available 4,193,000 66.7%1956 3,080,468 3,128,573 4,538,000 67.9%1960 3,318,097 3,454,804 4,564,000 72.7%1964 3,203,102 3,351,730 4,658,000 68.8%1968 3,306,250 4,022,378 4,953,000 66.8%1972 3,490,325 4,762,764a 5,874,000b 59.4%1976 3,722,384 5,202,379c 6,268,000 59.4%1980 3,978,647 5,725,713 6,510,000 61.1%1984 3,884,854 5,888,808 6,577,000 59.1%1988 3,745,751 5,952,513 6,791,000 55.2%1992 4,341,909 6,147,083 6,947,000 62.5%1996 3,912,261 6,677,079d 7,072,000 55.3%2000 4,279,299 6,859,332 7,358,000 58.2%

Voter Registration and Election Turnout Statistics for Michigan General Elections for President, 1948-2000

a"The large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972 Michigan Supreme Court ruling which declared that it was unconstitutional to purge the registration of a voter who had not voted over a period of two years as Michigan law then required. In effect, this compelled clerks to reinstate the registrations of 'non-voters' who had been purged from the registration since 1968."b"The large increase in the state's voting age population from 1970 to 1972 was the result of the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution which lowered the minimum voting age from 21 to 18."c"Two events occurred in 1975 which affected the 1976 registration total: (1) the Secretary of State Branch Officer Voter Registration program was put into effect in October and (2) provisions allowing for the creation of 'inactive' voter registration files were put into effect. Registration totals listed for 1976 to 1984 reflect only those registrations held in 4-year 'active' files."d"The National Voter Registration Act, effective January 1, 1995, eliminated the initiation of any voter registration cancellations for inactivity and introduced several new voter registration programs in the state, including mail-in registration."

Source: Michigan Manual, 1948-2000

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Voter Turnout for Presidential Elections in Michigan, 1948-2000 (As a Percentage of Voter Age Population)

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

Year

Perc

enta

ge

Source: Michigan Manual, 2001-2002

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Voter Turnout in Wayne County, 2000 General Election

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Voter Turnout in Detroit, 2000 General Election

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Money / Campaign Finances

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2004 Michigan Campaign Finance Report, Broadcast Television, By Region

*527s are advocacy groups.

Source: Michigan Campaign Finance Network

Detroit Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo Lansing Flint/Tri-Cities Northern Michigan

Bush/Cheney 2004 $5,512,200 $3,153,820 $2,054,000 $1,614,400 $1,817,002 $14,151,422

Pro-Bush 527s* Not Available $279,365 $67,725 $57,730 $150,455 $555,275

Total - Bush/allies $5,512,200 $3,433,185 $2,121,725 $1,672,130 $1,967,457 $14,706,697

Kerry/Edwards 2004 $6,597,000 $3,456,205 $2,480,075 $2,038,335 $1,704,794 $16,276,409

Pro-Kerry 527s* $1,472,995 $478,480 $420,000 $357,610 $157,060 $2,886,145

Total - Kerry/allies $8,069,995 $3,934,685 $2,900,075 $2,395,945 $1,861,854 $19,162,554

Total - All $13,582,195 $7,367,870 $5,021,800 $4,068,075 $3,829,311 $33,869,251

Candidate/Campaign

Media Market

Total

Note: Through October 25, 2004. Cable television not included.

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Media

• Bias in coverage– Sinclair Broadcasting– Errors—CBS

• Endorsements• Ad Wars

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Current Events

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Wild Card Possibilities• Debates• Changes in the Iraq Situation• Osama

– Capture– Attacks

• Employment and Unemployment Numbers• Gaffes and Leaks• Catastrophes• Oil price or Stock Market changes• Defections by Prominent Party Members• Media

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The Current Outlook

The Horse Race

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Likely voters’ choice for President in Michigan - 2004

Sources: (a) Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; (b) Strategic Vision (R); (c) Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); (d) American Research Group Poll; (e) Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; (f) EPIC/MRA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

08/13

- 08/16(b

)

08/17

- 08/19(d

)

08/26

- 08/28(b

)

08/26

- 08/29(c

)

09/12

- 09/14(b

)

09/14

- 09/16(a

)

09/26

- 09/28(b

)

10/12

- 10/14(b

)

10/15

- 10/18(a

)

10/18

- 10/19(e

)

10/18

- 10/20(b

)

10/19

- 10/21(e

)

10/18

- 10/22(f

)

10/24

- 10/26(b

)

10/26

- 10/29(a

)

Dates of polls (2004)

Perc

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Bush (R) Kerry (D) Nader (I) Undecided

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Likely voters’ choice for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls.Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

June

July

August

September

October

Month (2004)

Perc

enta

ge

Bush (National)

Bush (Michigan)

Kerry (National)

Kerry (Michigan)

Nader (National)

Nader (Michigan)

Others/Undecided (National)

Others/Undecided(Michigan)

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Percent of likely voters choosing John Kerry (D) for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls.

Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).

40.0%41.0%42.0%43.0%44.0%45.0%46.0%47.0%48.0%49.0%50.0%

June July

Augus

tSep

tembe

rOcto

ber

Month (2004)

Perc

enta

ge

Kerry (National)Kerry (Michigan)

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Percent of likely voters choosing George W. Bush (R) for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls.

Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).

36.0%38.0%

40.0%42.0%

44.0%46.0%

48.0%50.0%

June July

Augus

tSep

tembe

r

Octobe

r

Month

Perc

enta

ge

Bush (National)Bush (Michigan)

Documents

Presidential Politics in Michigan - Wayne State University · a"The large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972