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Opening Doors ConferenceNovember, 2018
Prepared by Altus Group Economic Consulting
Preserving and Increasing Affordable Housing Stock
altusgroup.com
Affordable Housing for Whom?Non-Market
Market
Shelters Transitional
Housing Supportive Housing
Social Housing
Rental Assistance Provided in Private Market
Market Rental
Housing Home
Ownership
Temporary shelter
food and other
services
Non-profit housing
providers offer stable housing as
a step between shelters
and permanent
housing
Housing providers
offer permanent housing in purpose-designed buildings
or in scattered sites with ongoing supports
Social or subsidized
housing requires capital
grants or ongoing
government subsidies to
reduce rents for
low-income households Operated
by housing providers,
government
Rental Assistance Program
Private housing make up
most rental
housing includes
secondary market
Fee simple, condominium ownership,
shared equity
ownerships
High
Level of Government Assistance
None
2
altusgroup.comAltus Group Limited | altusgroup.com3
The Face of Affordable Housing
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Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook
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Household Income Bracket Distribution by Primary Maintainer Age Groups, Calgary CMA, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada, Altus Group Economic Consulting, 2018
30,84521,615
34,36019,390
11,780 6,125 2,610 1,270 580 270 150 285
12,625
9,765
23,845
29,57033,445
32,82524,765
19,38013,345 8,330 5,225 11,360
12,210
8,085
16,92020,610 24,110
25,340
22,170
18,01515,005
12,4258,535
29,415
11,110
6,215
15,36017,620 21,135
22,420
19,020
14,980
12,735
10,4257,680
32,305
12,440
7,220
16,480 16,28518,000
17,945
14,815
10,980
9,000
7,185
5,085
24,500
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Under $5,000(including
loss)
$5,000 to$9,999
$10,000 to$19,999
$20,000 to$29,999
$30,000 to$39,999
$40,000 to$49,999
$50,000 to$59,999
$60,000 to$69,999
$70,000 to$79,999
$80,000 to$89,999
$90,000 to$99,999
$100,000 andover
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
with
the
Age
of 1
5 an
d Ab
ove 75+ 65 - 74 55 - 64 45 - 54 35 - 44 25 - 34 15 - 24
altusgroup.comAltus Group Limited | altusgroup.com6
"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." American statistician Edwards Deming
Next 10 Years 25 Year Total
People +245,000 +500,000
Jobs +95,000 +250,000
Homes (Total) +100,000 units +260,000 units
Medium & High Density Homes*
+40,000 units +95,000 units
Office space +1.6 million sq. ft. +2.7 million sq. ft.
Retail Space +5 million sq. ft. +15 million sq. ft.
* Includes townhouse and apartment units
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Private Development – Depends on Demand and Absorption
3,4951,784 2,674
467714
1,163
5,8596,609
6,442
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016
Annu
al U
nits
Edmonton CMA, Row and Apartment Household Growth
Singles Row Apartment
Outside of City600
18%Central
299 9%
Strathcona65
2%
North826
24%
West1,045 31%
South-East549
16%
Annual Net Absorptions, Row and Apartment, by Zone and Share of Total, 2001-2016
.
Outside of City2,278 36%
North1,207 19%
West2,207 34%
South-East723
11%
Annual Net Absorptions, Singles and Semis, by Zone and Share of Total, 2001-2016
7
altusgroup.comAltus Group Limited | altusgroup.com8
Why Doesn’t the Market produce enough affordable housing?
Real Estate is a capital asset used to deliver a program or service – Housing
Social need = economic viability (how do we change ≠ into = )
Non-profit real estate has a monitary value that can be prudently leveraged to rehabilitate or expand real estate assets
altusgroup.comAltus Group Limited | altusgroup.com9
Mind the Gap
altusgroup.comAltus Group Limited | altusgroup.com10
Means to an End: Providing People with Affordable Housing
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Leverage
Small amount of effort to produce a disproportionately big result
1) the myth of “Free and Clear”
Consider:
2) The ability to leverage or use assets as collateral gives you financial flexibility
3) Leverage can increase cash flow.
4) Leverage can expand your total assets.
Assets (land and buildings)
Access to Capital (Money)
Partnerships (private developers)
Take a Page from a Developer’s Play Book
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Background
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Housing Demand Outlook
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Case Study #1
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Case Study #1
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Case Study #2
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Case Study #2
Building Condition Reports
Project Management
Cost Management
Needs And Demands Studies
Municipal Finance
Highest And Best Use Studies
Portfolio Assessments
Property Appraisals
?How Can Altus Group Help?
ContactElsa Sawatzky
Senior Consultant
@altus_group
403-508-7810
National Economic Advisory
33 Yonge St., Toronto, Suite 5002020 - 4th Street SW, Calgary, Suite 3101055 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, Suite 2500