HF

Pred

ictio

nsH

F Pr

edic

tions

Pres

ente

r: Ph

il W

ilkin

son

Pres

ente

r: Ph

il W

ilkin

son

Mat

eria

l: th

anks

to m

any

IPS

staf

f mem

bers

Mat

eria

l: th

anks

to m

any

IPS

staf

f mem

bers

IPS

Rad

io a

nd S

pace

Ser

vice

sIP

S R

adio

and

Spa

ce S

ervi

ces

Sydn

ey, A

UST

RA

LIA

Sydn

ey, A

UST

RA

LIA

•• Lec

ture

1: t

he c

urre

nt st

atus

,Le

ctur

e 1:

the

curr

ent s

tatu

s,•• L

ectu

re 2

: the

futu

reLe

ctur

e 2:

the

futu

re..

Ope

ratio

nal I

mpa

cts

Iono

sphe

ric E

ffect

s

Und

istu

rbed

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sphe

reIo

nosp

heric

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ulen

ceSc

intil

latio

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Elec

tron

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sity

Abs

orb

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re

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aren

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catio

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ue L

ocat

ion

XXB

end

& D

elay

Iono

sphe

re

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Los

s of L

ock

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TCO

M O

utag

es•R

adar

Inte

rfer

ence

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ar E

rror

s•G

eolo

catio

n Er

rors

•GPS

Err

ors

•HF

Rad

io O

utag

es

IPS

Rad

io a

nd S

pace

Serv

ices

A b

rief i

ntro

duct

ion

to IP

S.

ww

w.ip

s.gov

.au

IPS :

Bas

ic F

acts

•A

n ag

ency

of t

he A

ustra

lian

Gov

ernm

ent

–Pe

rman

ent S

taff

: ~ 3

5 pe

ople

–Se

rvic

e Pr

ovid

ers:

~ 9

peo

ple

•H

ead

Off

ice

in S

ydne

y, A

ustra

lia–

Ope

rate

s Obs

erva

torie

s and

stat

ions

aro

und

Aus

trala

sia

and

Ant

arct

ica

•Pr

ovid

es A

ustra

lian

Spac

e W

eath

er S

ervi

ces

•W

DC

for S

olar

Ter

rest

rial S

cien

ce

IPS

Func

tions

•Pr

ovid

e th

e A

ustra

lian

natio

nal r

adio

prop

agat

ion

and

spac

e w

eath

er se

rvic

e•

Supp

ort i

nter

natio

nal a

nd d

omes

tic re

sear

chin

to th

e sp

ace

envi

ronm

ent

•Pr

ovid

e A

ustra

lian

repr

esen

tatio

n on

inte

rnat

iona

l reg

ulat

ory

bodi

es•

Mon

itor t

he sp

ace

envi

ronm

ent t

hrou

gh a

nex

tens

ive

netw

ork

of st

atio

ns a

nd o

bser

vato

ries

•Pr

ovid

e W

DC

serv

ices

for s

pace

scie

nce

IPS

Rad

io a

nd S

pace

Ser

vice

s

Mai

ntai

n co

mm

on s

ervi

ces

Man

age

IPS

Web

sit

eM

arke

t IP

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cilit

ies

Supp

ort

ASA

PS, G

WPS

Supp

ort

IPS

Pred

icti

on S

oftw

are

Supp

ort

tele

com

mun

icat

ions

use

rs

Mak

e &

Dis

trib

ute

Fore

cast

s, A

lert

s, in

dice

s,M

aint

ain

inte

rnat

iona

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ks,

Dis

trib

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real

tim

e da

ta

Ope

rate

Aus

tral

ian

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eFo

reca

stin

g Ce

ntre

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C)

Prov

ide

tech

nica

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ice

on

sola

r te

rres

tria

l dis

turb

ance

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ITU

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hair

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3,U

RSI

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st C

hair

Com

m G

,IS

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pas

t-Ch

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COSP

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STEP

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icip

ate

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atio

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roup

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ort

Aus

tral

ian

sola

r te

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tria

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d s

pace

sci

ence

act

ivit

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Prov

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spec

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rvic

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Dev

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utos

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tra

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vice

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Dev

elop

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ser

vice

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ide

spec

ialis

tCo

nsul

tanc

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ervi

ces

Hea

d O

ffic

e : S

ydne

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ustr

alia

~35

perm

enan

t em

ploy

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2 so

lar

obse

rvat

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anag

e 15

iono

sphe

ric

obse

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IPSN

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tatio

n U

nit

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anne

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atio

ns

•St

anda

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dust

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ack-

mou

nt P

Cs

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all l

ocal

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twor

k w

ith si

ngle

Fre

eBSD

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as fi

lese

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and

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mun

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nt•

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erne

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wor

k•

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Cs r

unni

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or D

OS

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in-9

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Com

mun

icat

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eve

ry 1

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inut

es (t

arge

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lup

from

Syd

ney

for m

ainl

and

stat

ions

–D

ialo

ut to

loca

l ser

vice

pro

vide

r for

Van

imo,

Pt

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esby

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folk

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ata

retu

rned

via

FTP

or S

CP

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rchi

val C

Ds w

ritte

n lo

cally

eac

h m

onth

Typi

cal L

ayou

t

Wid

e A

rea

Net

wor

k D

ata

•A

ppro

xim

atel

y 43

Mby

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er d

ay fr

om d

ialu

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r day

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Aus

tralia

n A

ntar

ctic

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es•

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r day

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imo,

Pt M

ores

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ndN

orfo

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60 M

b fr

om S

olar

Obs

erva

torie

s•

App

roxi

mat

ely

5000

file

s pro

cess

ed e

ach

day

and

grow

ing.

(as o

f Dec

embe

r 200

2)

IPS Data

•A

ll IP

S st

atio

ns–

Low

latit

udes

(2)

–m

id la

titud

es (9

)–

high

latit

udes

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•Su

ppor

ted

stat

ions

–N

ew Z

eala

nd (2

)–

Niu

e (1

pen

ding

)

IPS Data

•N

etw

orke

d–

Com

pute

r sca

led

•M

anua

lly v

erify

alm

ost a

llho

urly

obs

erva

tions

•A

rchi

ved

in IP

S W

DC

•Fo

rms a

val

uabl

e, lo

ngdu

ratio

n da

ta se

t.

Niu

e

Iono

gram

s &

Iono

sond

es• S

ite P

rior

ity:

− Th

is is

a sp

arse

net

wor

k, a

ll si

tes h

ave

high

prio

rity

− C

urre

nt st

rate

gy: d

iffer

ent t

ypes

of i

onos

onde

and

2 p

er si

te.

• Sam

plin

g:

− Ev

ery

5 m

inut

es (e

xcep

t whe

re sp

ecia

l loc

al c

ondi

tions

or

prog

ram

s dic

tate

oth

erw

ise; o

nly

one

stat

ions

affe

cted

at

pres

ent)

• Equ

ipm

ent r

elia

bilit

y:

− 4D

/IPS4

2 is

elde

rly a

nd o

bsol

ete,

also

no

mag

neto

ioni

c se

para

tion

− C

AD

I is a

(rel

ativ

ely)

low

pric

ed C

anad

ian

iono

sond

e −

5D is

low

pric

ed, I

PS-b

uilt

iono

sond

e

Web

Vie

wer

: Nor

folk

Is (g

if)

Spor

adic

E

Extra

-ord

inar

y, o

r X c

ompo

nent

Ord

inar

y, o

r O c

ompo

nent

foF2

Web

vie

wer

: Can

berr

a

Web

vie

wer

: Hob

art

Chr

istc

hurc

h: IP

S-42

iono

sond

e

Can

berr

a: C

AD

I ion

ogra

m

Can

berr

a: 5

D io

nogr

am

Iono

gram

s &

Iono

sphe

ric M

odel

s•

Clim

atol

ogy

mod

els o

f the

iono

sphe

re h

ave

been

bui

ltfr

om p

ast i

onos

onde

obs

erva

tions

Mos

t im

porta

nt p

aram

eter

is fo

F2G

ood

linea

r rel

atio

nshi

p be

twee

n m

edia

n fo

F2 a

nd a

n eq

uiva

lent

suns

pot n

umbe

r•

IPS

uses

the

T in

dex

•M

ost m

odel

s (C

CIR

/ITU

-R) u

se sm

ooth

ed su

nspo

t num

ber

•Th

e T-

inde

xTa

kes l

inea

r rel

atio

ns fo

r sev

eral

site

sA

nd p

rodu

ces t

he b

est f

it eq

uiva

lent

suns

pot n

umbe

r

•Ex

ampl

e sh

ows C

apet

own

med

ian

foF2

mod

elle

d by

IPS

syst

em Sim

ilar r

esul

ts w

ould

be

obta

ined

for a

ll m

odel

s (IT

U-R

/IRI e

tc)

Cap

etow

n: a

n ex

ampl

e

Mar

ket A

naly

sis

-M

arke

t Ana

lysi

s -

Cus

tom

er/M

arke

t Tar

gets

Cus

tom

er/M

arke

t Tar

gets

Iden

tifyi

ng ta

rget

mar

kets

/ su

b-m

arke

ts b

y

Ope

ratio

nal T

ype:

Wha

t are

they

invo

lved

in th

at is

rele

vant

to IP

S?Eg

, bro

adca

stin

g, b

ase-

to-m

obile

com

mun

icat

ions

, sur

veill

ance

, etc

Org

anis

atio

nal T

ype:

Gov

ernm

ent (

Fede

ral o

r Pro

vinc

ial),

Priv

ate,

Edu

catio

nal/R

esea

rch

-D

efen

ce F

orce

s, C

usto

ms A

utho

ritie

s, Em

erge

ncy

Serv

ices

, min

ing

and

geop

hysi

cal c

ompa

nies

, sat

ellit

e op

erat

ors,

Uni

vers

ities

, etc

S R

adio

& S

pace

Ser

vice

s - P

.O.B

ox 1

386,

Hay

mar

ket N

SW 1

240,

Aus

tral

ia

-

+

61 2

921

3800

0

+6

1 2

9213

8060

w

ww

.ips.

gov.

Mar

ket A

naly

sis

- IP

S C

usto

mer

s by

Ope

ratio

nal T

ype

4H

F ra

dio

syst

ems o

pera

tions

-co

mm

unic

atio

ns, s

urve

illan

ce, d

irect

ion

findi

ng

4G

eoph

ysic

al -

aero

mag

netic

surv

eys,

pow

er sy

stem

s pro

tect

ion,

pip

elin

eca

thod

ic p

rote

ctio

n

4R

adio

Com

mun

icat

ions

Con

sulta

nts a

ndEn

gine

ers

4Sa

telli

te o

pera

tions

4O

ther

- R

egul

ator

y, E

duca

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l,Eq

uipm

ent M

anuf

actu

rers

4Sc

ienc

e/En

viro

nmen

tal

mon

itorin

g

Mar

ket A

naly

sis

-M

arke

t Ana

lysi

s -

IPS

Cus

tom

ers

by O

rgan

isat

ion

IPS

Cus

tom

ers

by O

rgan

isat

ion

4D

efen

ce -

Arm

y, N

avy,

Airf

orce

4C

omm

onw

ealth

Gov

t - A

irser

vice

s Aus

tralia

,C

usto

ms,

Rad

io A

ustra

lia

4St

ate

Gov

t - P

olic

e, E

mer

genc

y Se

rvic

es

4Ed

ucat

iona

l - S

choo

ls o

f the

Air,

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vers

ities

4Pr

ivat

e - G

eoph

ysic

al, R

adio

Sys

tem

s Eng

inee

rsan

d O

pera

tors

4O

vers

eas o

rgan

isat

ions

of a

sim

ilar k

ind

Mai

ntai

ning

Cus

tom

er R

elat

ions

- M

edia

Mai

ntai

ning

Cus

tom

er R

elat

ions

- M

edia

4A

llow

s bro

ad c

omm

unity

acc

ess t

o IP

S

activ

ities

and

serv

ices

4H

elps

est

ablis

h IP

S as

regi

onal

exp

erts

on

spac

e w

eath

er

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r Gov

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stak

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ntro

l ove

r fin

al p

rodu

ct a

nd

its d

istri

butio

n

Mai

ntai

ning

Cus

tom

er R

elat

ions

-M

aint

aini

ng C

usto

mer

Rel

atio

ns -

Prom

otio

nal m

ater

ial

Prom

otio

nal m

ater

ial

4A

llow

s tar

gete

d m

essa

ges

to

spec

ific

inte

rest

gro

ups

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ange

of m

edia

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inte

d

bro

chur

es a

nd c

atal

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eb-b

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id

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and

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y ex

pens

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t be

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fully

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Mai

ntai

ning

Cus

tom

er R

elat

ions

-M

aint

aini

ng C

usto

mer

Rel

atio

ns -

Serv

ice

Prov

isio

nSe

rvic

e Pr

ovis

ion

4A

ny c

onta

ct w

ith c

usto

mer

s mus

t

be

rega

rded

as a

n op

ortu

nity

to

dev

elop

a re

latio

nshi

p w

ith

them

4Th

is in

clud

es th

e pr

ovis

ion

of

any

pro

duct

s/se

rvic

es, d

ata,

o

r gen

eral

info

rmat

ion,

re

gard

less

of h

ow ro

utin

e or

tr

ivia

l it m

ight

seem

4A

ny su

ch c

onta

ct th

at is

not

d

one

in a

hel

pful

, pro

fess

iona

l

man

ner c

an d

egra

de re

latio

nshi

ps

with

cus

tom

ers

Cus

tom

er In

form

atio

n an

d R

ecor

ds -

Cus

tom

er In

form

atio

n an

d R

ecor

ds -

Cus

tom

er D

atab

ase

Cus

tom

er D

atab

ase

4IP

S op

erat

es a

cus

tom

er d

atab

ase

fo

r rec

ordi

ng c

usto

mer

con

tact

and

se

rvic

e de

tails

4Th

e da

taba

se c

an b

e qu

erie

d to

p

rodu

ce in

form

atio

n on

var

ious

c

ombi

natio

ns o

f ser

vice

reco

rds a

nd

cus

tom

er d

etai

ls

4It

is a

lso

used

to d

rive

the

prov

isio

n

of s

peci

fic se

rvic

es

4In

form

atio

n on

the

natu

re o

f

cust

omer

ope

ratio

ns is

reco

rded

Wha

t is

the

Futu

re o

f HF?

•A

ustra

lian

surv

ey 4

– 1

0 M

Hz

band

show

ed:

–M

any

orga

nisa

tions

are

mod

erni

sing

thei

r HF

com

mun

icat

ions

infr

astru

ctur

eB

y co

nsol

idat

ing

to a

smal

ler n

umbe

r of s

ites

•Li

cenc

es–

Land

-mob

ile (0

– 3

0 M

Hz)

lice

nces

dec

linin

g–

Poin

t-to-

(mul

ti) p

oint

risi

ng sh

arpl

y–

Oth

er li

cenc

es fl

uctu

atin

g•

Lice

ncee

s (fix

ed, m

obile

and

bro

adca

st)

–80

% a

ntic

ipat

e no

cha

nge

afte

r 200

7–

Onl

y 11

% a

ntic

ipat

e no

t nee

ding

cur

rent

freq

uenc

y as

sign

men

ts

•A

ustra

lian

man

ufac

ture

rs re

porte

d to

find

:–

Ris

ing

sale

s for

bas

ic H

F ki

t, H

F sh

ort m

essa

ge se

rvic

es (S

MS)

,H

F da

ta sy

stem

s

Who

is D

oing

Wha

t?•

Who

is c

hang

ing?

–D

ecre

asin

g H

F, p

redo

min

ant r

easo

n: n

ew te

chno

logy

(mob

ile p

hone

s, sa

telli

te p

hone

s – e

ncou

rage

d w

ith G

ovt s

ubsi

dy in

rem

ote

loca

tions

)–

Incr

easi

ng H

F, p

redo

min

ant r

easo

n: e

xpan

sion

Gre

ater

eco

nom

y of

HF

•B

road

cast

ers

–A

ntic

ipat

e ad

optin

g di

gita

l tec

hnol

ogy

–N

eed

mor

e sp

ectru

m fo

r tra

nsiti

onal

ana

logu

e/di

gita

l yea

rs

•N

eeds

–C

urre

ntly

NO

relia

ble

digi

tal H

F pr

edic

tions

–Lo

wer

cos

t of H

F

HF

Pred

ictio

ns

•Fo

r an

HF

radi

o sy

stem

est

imat

e–

Freq

uenc

y su

ppor

t–

Path

loss

, atm

osph

eric

noi

se, s

igna

l-to-

nois

era

tio, a

nd p

roba

bilit

y of

iono

sphe

ric su

ppor

t

•St

ages

:–

Com

pute

freq

uenc

y av

aila

bilit

y–

Com

pute

pro

paga

tion

supp

ort

An

HF

Link

: Fre

quen

cy A

vaila

bilit

y

•A

sim

ple

HF

syst

em–

e.g

., a

sing

le H

F lin

k b

etw

een

Wel

lingt

on a

nd S

ydne

y).

•G

iven

a fr

eque

ncy

set,

how

shou

ld it

be

used

?•

Met

hod:

–ta

ke a

n io

nosp

heric

mod

el, i

nclu

ding

var

iabi

lity

–co

mpa

re th

e av

aila

bilit

y of

the

freq

uenc

ies i

n th

e se

t.–

for a

sele

ctio

n of

like

ly p

ropa

gatio

n pa

ths a

nd–

choo

se th

e be

st fr

eque

ncie

s for

the

time

of th

e da

y.•

Not

e: o

nly

an io

nosp

heric

mod

el is

nee

ded.

Skyw

ave

Path

s - 1

Som

e si

mpl

e pr

opag

atio

n m

odes

.

Oth

er p

ropa

gatio

n m

odes

(not

in m

odel

)

Ray

Tra

cing

HF

path

pro

paga

tion

•H

F pr

opag

atio

n pa

th is

cha

ract

eriz

ed b

y m

ultip

ath

prop

agat

ion

and

fadi

ng.

•Th

e si

gnal

trav

els o

ver s

ever

al p

aths

or m

odes

to th

e re

ceiv

er–

via

sing

le a

nd m

ultip

le re

flect

ions

from

the

E, E

, F la

yers

and

may

be E

s–

incl

udin

g gr

ound

refle

ctio

ns–

In tw

o or

thog

onal

pol

aris

atio

ns, a

nd b

y hi

gh a

nd lo

w ra

y pa

ths.

•Pr

opag

atio

n tim

es o

ver t

he p

aths

are

diff

eren

t,–

the

rece

ived

sign

al m

ay c

onsi

st o

f sev

eral

mul

tipat

h co

mpo

nent

s–

spre

ad in

tim

e by

up

to se

vera

l mill

isec

onds

.•

Ave

rage

iono

sphe

ric la

yers

hei

ghts

may

incr

ease

or d

ecre

ase,

–in

trodu

cing

diff

eren

t fre

quen

cy (D

oppl

er) s

hifts

–on

eac

h m

ultip

ath

com

pone

nt.

•Th

e io

nosp

here

is a

lso

turb

ulen

t–

caus

ing

Dop

pler

spre

ad (f

adin

g) o

f eac

h co

mpo

nent

,–

and

a re

sulta

nt fa

ding

of t

he c

ompo

site

rece

ived

sign

al.

•A

ll of

thes

e ef

fect

s pro

duce

mul

tiplic

ativ

e si

gnal

dis

torti

on a

ndde

grad

atio

n of

the

perf

orm

ance

of c

omm

unic

atio

n sy

stem

s.

HF

path

pro

paga

tion

•H

F pr

opag

atio

n pa

th is

cha

ract

eriz

ed b

y m

ultip

ath

prop

agat

ion

and

fadi

ng.

•Th

e si

gnal

trav

els o

ver s

ever

al p

aths

or m

odes

to th

e re

ceiv

er–

via

sing

le a

nd m

ultip

le re

flect

ions

from

the

E, F

laye

rs a

nd m

aybe

Es

–in

clud

ing

grou

nd re

flect

ions

–In

two

orth

ogon

al p

olar

isat

ions

, and

by

high

and

low

ray

path

s.•

Prop

agat

ion

times

ove

r the

pat

hs a

re d

iffer

ent,

–th

e re

ceiv

ed si

gnal

may

con

sist

of s

ever

al m

ultip

ath

com

pone

nts

–sp

read

in ti

me

by u

p to

seve

ral m

illis

econ

ds.

•A

vera

ge io

nosp

heric

laye

rs h

eigh

ts m

ay in

crea

se o

r dec

reas

e,–

intro

duci

ng d

iffer

ent f

requ

ency

(Dop

pler

) shi

fts–

on e

ach

mul

tipat

h co

mpo

nent

.•

The

iono

sphe

re is

als

o tu

rbul

ent

–ca

usin

g D

oppl

er sp

read

(fad

ing)

of e

ach

com

pone

nt,

–an

d a

resu

ltant

fadi

ng o

f the

com

posi

te re

ceiv

ed si

gnal

.•

All

of th

ese

effe

cts p

rodu

ce m

ultip

licat

ive

sign

al d

isto

rtion

and

degr

adat

ion

of th

e pe

rfor

man

ce o

f com

mun

icat

ion

syst

ems.

Skyw

ave

Path

s

Con

trol

Poi

nts

*

* *

*

*

* *

*

* *

*

< 40

00 k

m

2000

-800

0 km

4000

-120

00 k

m

8000

-120

00 k

m

≥ 12

000

km

1500

km

d -3

000

11

1500

km

d 6d 6

d 4d 4

d 2

4-ho

p

3-ho

p

2-ho

p

1-ho

p

d 8d 8

Com

posit

em

ode

Circ

uit M

UF

= lo

wer

"co

ntro

l" M

UF

Circ

uit A

LF =

hig

hest

"co

ntro

l" A

LF

10 e

xtra

sam

ples

for A

LF

Con

trol

poi

nts

– Vi

rtua

l Ray

-trac

e•

The

cont

rol p

oint

use

s a m

irro

r mod

el o

f HF

skyw

ave

prop

agat

ion.

–A

ssum

es p

ropa

gatio

n ca

n be

app

roxi

mat

ed b

y re

flect

ions

from

a h

oriz

onta

l mirr

or h

eld

at a

n ap

prop

riate

hei

ght.

•Im

plem

ente

d in

mos

t pre

dict

ion

code

s–

Ref

ers t

o m

id-p

oint

of g

reat

-circ

le p

ath

segm

ent

–W

here

iono

sphe

ric p

aram

eter

s at s

ome

heig

ht (E

, F la

yers

usua

lly) c

ontro

l pro

paga

tion.

–U

sual

ly m

ore

com

plic

ated

mod

els a

re n

ot ju

stifi

ed,

•gi

ven

the

accu

racy

of t

he io

nosp

heric

mod

el.

•C

ontro

l poi

nts e

xclu

de–

Hig

h ra

ys–

Stro

ng ti

lts a

nd g

radi

ents

–N

on-g

reat

circ

le p

aths

, sca

tter m

odes

, etc

Skyw

ave

Path

s - 2

Num

ber o

f hop

s for

pro

paga

tion

mod

es w

hich

are

exa

min

ed fo

r a g

iven

pat

h le

ngth

.

Dis

tanc

e (k

m

Firs

t mod

e Se

cond

mod

e Fr

om

To

E F

E F

0

499

1 1

- -

500

2049

1

1 2

2 20

50

3999

-

1 2

2

4000

40

99

2 2

3 3

4100

61

49

- 2

3 3

6150

79

99

- 2

- 3

8000

81

99

- 3

4 4

8200

11

999

- 3

- 4

1200

0 2 π

R

Com

posi

te F

mod

e (3

000k

m h

op le

ngth

)

MU

F(d)

Poin

t-to-

poin

toG

RA

FEX

(sym

bolic

form

at)

oUR

SL (U

pper

Rec

omm

ende

d se

cond

ary

low

er)

oTru

nk R

oute

tabl

esoM

inm

ax (m

inim

um &

max

imum

dis

tanc

es)

Mob

ile oLoc

al A

rea

Mob

ile P

redi

ctio

n (L

AM

P)oH

ourly

Are

a Pr

edic

tion

(HA

P)oA

ir R

oute

cha

rts

Plan

ning

oFre

quen

cy se

lect

ion

& te

stin

goP

athl

oss /

Noi

seoE

leva

tion

Ang

les

HF

Rad

io F

requ

ency

Pre

dict

ions

Visu

aliz

atio

n Ex

erci

se

•Pr

edic

tion

form

ats a

re v

isua

lizat

ion

exer

cise

s–

Pred

ictio

n m

etho

d is

ker

nel,

–Pr

esen

tatio

n of

resu

lts is

the

wra

pper

.•

Are

bes

t gen

erat

ed w

ith c

usto

mer

feed

back

•D

river

info

rmat

ion

easi

ly a

dded

•O

utpu

ts h

ighl

ight

key

info

rmat

ion

requ

ired

•C

olou

r can

look

use

d ef

fect

ivel

y to

hig

hlig

htke

y de

tails

HA

P - H

ourly

Are

a Pr

edic

tion

Rou

tine

HF

Pred

ictio

nsR

outin

e H

F Pr

edic

tions

4 P

oint

- to

- Po

int -

GR

AFE

X, U

RSL

4 C

onto

ur c

harts

- H

APS

, LA

MPS

, Air

Rou

te

HA

PC

hart

s

X

X

xx

xx

xx

xx

x

LAM

P C

hart

The

HF

Envi

ronm

ent

Iono

sphe

ric c

ontri

butio

ns•

Iono

sphe

ric c

limat

e•

Var

iabi

lity

–St

orm

s, sp

orad

ic E

–Ti

lts, g

radi

ents

–A

uror

al, e

quat

oria

l reg

ions

•A

bsor

ptio

n–

Flar

es•

Geo

mag

netic

fiel

d–

Pola

rizat

ion

•Fa

ding

–TI

Ds,

irreg

ular

ities

•A

tmos

pher

ic a

nd g

alac

tic n

oise

Non

-iono

sphe

ric c

ontri

butio

ns•

Site

(m

an-m

ade)

noi

se•

Inte

rfer

ence

, rad

iatio

n ha

zard

•A

nten

nas

•A

vaila

ble

freq

uenc

ies &

equ

ipm

ent

•G

roun

d co

nduc

tivity

•Pa

th le

ngth

•Ty

pe o

f ser

vice

•R

eal e

stat

e &

faci

litie

s•

Reg

ulat

ions

•R

esou

rces

–ex

perie

nce

and

skill

–Fu

nds

Syst

em lo

sses

Path

loss

Path

loss

(Lb)

= p

ower

radi

ated

(dB

) – p

ower

rece

ived

(dB

) =

free

-spa

ce lo

ss +

pro

paga

tion

effe

cts

L b

= L

bf +

La +

Lp

+ L

g + L

q – G

f

Tran

smis

sion

Los

s =

Lb

- GT

- GR

L bf =

bas

ic fr

ee-s

pace

tran

smis

sion

loss

, or a

ttenu

atio

nL a

= a

bsor

ptio

n lo

ssL p

= p

olar

izat

ion-

coup

ling

loss

L g =

mul

ti-ho

p gr

ound

-ref

lect

ion

loss

L q =

spor

adic

_E o

bscu

ratio

n lo

ssG

f = h

oriz

on fo

cus g

ain

Tran

smis

sion

Los

s an

d G

ain

Fact

ors

Fa

ctor

T

ypic

al v

alue

s L b

f Sp

atia

l atte

nuat

ion

85 -

160

dB

Gf

Hor

izon

focu

s ga

in

0 - 9

dB

(ant

ipod

ean)

L a

A

bsor

ptio

n 0

- 20

dB p

er h

op

L p

Pola

rizat

ion

coup

ling

loss

3

- 6 d

B

L g

Gro

und-

refle

ctio

n lo

ss (l

and)

0

- 9 d

B p

er re

flect

ion

L g

Gro

und-

refle

ctio

n lo

ss (s

ea)

0.5

dB

L q

Spor

adic

-E o

bscu

ratio

n lo

ss

0 - 1

dB

G

R,T

A

nten

na g

ains

-2

0 to

20

dBi

Noi

se P

athl

oss

= –

(Lb

+ N

) (dB

W/H

z)SN

RB

= S

igna

l – n

oise

= S

NR

1Hz +

10l

og10

b

= [P

R –

Lb]

– N

=

[PT

+ G

T(β)

+ G

R(β

) – L

b] –

N

Envi

ronm

ent

S

yste

m v

aria

bles

– (L

b +

N) =

[SN

R1H

z +

10lo

g 10b

] – [P

T +

GT(β)

+ G

R(β

)]

•O

nce

the

envi

ronm

enta

l par

amet

er [ –

(Lb

+ N

)] is

know

n–

Tran

smitt

er p

ower

, ant

enna

gai

ns, r

ecei

ver b

andw

idth

and

grad

e of

serv

ice

–ca

n be

trad

ed a

gain

st e

ach

othe

r.

•R

ecom

men

ded

SNR

1Hz a

re g

iven

in IT

U-R

F.3

39-6

.

N =

Rad

io n

oise

•R

esou

rces

–IT

U-R

Noi

se m

odel

–IT

U-R

Rec

. P.3

72–

Inte

rfer

ence

(can

dom

inat

e)•

Stra

tegy

– a

void

it!

•M

an-m

ade

–D

epen

ds o

n te

chno

logi

cal

soph

istic

atio

n–

urba

n–

subu

rban

–R

ural

•N

atur

al–

atm

osph

eric

–ga

lact

ic–

sola

r

The

Sour

ce o

f Atm

osph

eric

Noi

se

Atm

osph

eric

Rad

io N

oise

(1M

Hz,

Sum

mer

, 08-

1200

LT)

TR

MM

/LIS

Sea

sona

l Thu

nder

stor

m O

ccur

renc

eSu

mm

er 1

998,

199

9, 2

000,

200

1

TR

MM

/LIS

Sea

sona

l Thu

nder

stor

m O

ccur

renc

eW

inte

r 19

98, 1

999,

200

0, 2

001

Noi

se v

aria

tion

with

freq

uenc

y

Rad

io n

oise

type

s

Impa

ct o

f Noi

seQu

iet R

ural

Site

(CCI

R)Ca

tego

ry A

Site

(AS

3516

)

Rura

l Site

(CCI

R)Bu

sines

s Si

te (C

CIR)

Tran

smit E

RP =

30d

BW, I

sotro

pic a

nten

nas,

+10

dB

SNR

Long

-Ter

m H

F Pr

edic

tions

•Lo

ng-te

rm p

redi

ctio

ns a

re e

ssen

tial f

or H

F pl

anni

ng•

They

(hop

eful

ly) r

efle

ct a

vera

ge, o

r com

mon

con

ditio

ns,

–an

d ar

e a

reas

onab

le c

ompr

omis

e,–

give

n th

e av

aila

ble

iono

sphe

ric m

odel

s acc

urac

y.•

They

are

nec

essa

ry in

–H

F br

oadc

astin

g–

spec

trum

man

agem

ent a

ctiv

ities

whe

re lo

ng le

ad ti

mes

are

requ

ired.

•Pr

oble

ms

–O

WFs

mea

n ig

norin

g 10

% o

f sky

wav

e su

ppor

t–

Stor

ms i

gnor

ed–

No

spor

adic

E,

–V

irtua

l ray

trac

e ig

nore

s tilt

s / g

radi

ents

etc

–M

odel

s ina

dequ

atel

y te

sted

aga

inst

obs

erva

tions

–Sh

ort-t

erm

iono

sphe

ric v

aria

bilit

y in

adeq

uate

ly a

llow

ed fo

r–

Spec

ial r

egio

nal p

robl

ems (

high

/ lo

w la

titud

es) m

ay n

ot b

ead

dres

sed

effe

ctiv

ely

Con

sulta

ncy

Serv

ices

Iono

sond

e D

elta

Ant

enna

HF

Pred

ictio

n Pr

ogra

mm

es•

ION

CA

P (I

onos

pher

ic C

omm

unic

atio

ns A

naly

sis a

nd P

redi

ctio

n Pr

ogra

m)

stan

dard

HF

pred

ictio

n pr

ogra

m. (

exe?

)

•V

OA

CA

P (V

oice

of A

mer

ica

Cov

erag

e A

naly

sis P

rogr

am )

pred

icts

the

expe

cted

per

form

ance

of H

F br

oadc

ast s

yste

ms

(sou

rce)

•IC

EPA

C (I

onos

pher

ic C

omm

unic

atio

ns E

nhan

ced

Prof

ile A

naly

sis &

Circ

uit )

a de

scen

dent

of I

ON

CA

P (e

xe)

•R

ec 5

33PC

/DO

S ba

sed

impl

emen

tatio

n of

the

Inte

rnat

iona

l Tel

ecom

mun

icat

ion

Uni

on's

(ITU

) pro

paga

tion

mod

el R

ecom

men

datio

n IT

U-R

PI.5

33 (s

ourc

e)

•A

SAPS

IPS

PC so

ftwar

e (e

xe)

•G

WPS

IPS

wra

pper

for G

RW

AV

E gr

ound

wav

e on

ly (e

xe)

Furt

her P

redi

ctio

n Pr

ogra

ms

•M

UFL

UF:

may

be fi

rst p

redi

ctio

n m

odel

•IT

SA-1

: (19

69) e

arly

pre

dict

ion

mod

el•

ITS-

78 (H

FMU

FES)

(196

9-76

): ha

s Es b

ut n

o F1

laye

r•

RA

DA

RC

: (19

72) f

or O

THR

pre

dece

ssor

of I

ON

CA

P•

FTZ:

(197

0) d

evel

oped

by

Deu

tsch

e B

unde

spos

t•

CC

IR 2

52 su

pple

men

t (19

72) n

ow re

plac

ed b

y R

ec 5

33•

HFB

C84

(198

4): a

noth

er C

CIR

upd

ate

(WA

RC

, I th

ink)

•A

MB

CO

M (1

980)

: Dev

elop

ed b

y SR

I has

trou

ghs,

upda

ting

and

ray

traci

ng .

•SU

P252

: ear

lier v

ersi

on o

f REC

533

•A

PPLA

B: R

AL

vers

ion

of R

EC53

3, w

ith g

radi

ents

and

othe

r ext

ras.

•A

ll th

ese

code

s are

on

FOR

TRA

N, a

dis

appo

intm

ent t

om

ost p

eopl

e un

der 4

0.

Exam

ple:

ICEP

AC

out

put

Exam

ple:

VO

AC

AP

Cov

erag

e M

ap

Exam

ple:

REC

533

mul

tiple

cov

erag

e

The

War

Zon

e

•H

ow d

o w

e ge

t mor

e fr

eque

ncie

s?•

The

HF

med

ium

is li

mite

d (3

- 30

MH

z, b

ut c

anre

ach

60 M

Hz,

equ

ipm

ent p

erm

ittin

g).

•It

is sl

iced

into

a n

umbe

r of f

requ

enci

es w

ithba

ndw

idth

s dep

endi

ng o

n us

age,

–th

ere

are

only

9,0

00 3

kH

z sl

ices

in th

e H

F sp

ectru

m.

•Th

e us

age

is g

over

ned

by in

tern

atio

nal

conv

entio

ns a

nd a

gree

men

ts th

roug

h th

eIn

tern

atio

nal T

elec

omm

unic

atio

n U

nion

(ITU

),–

with

furth

er N

atio

nal l

imita

tions

impo

sed.

A P

iece

of C

oppe

r Wire

•“I

use

d to

wor

k in

VH

F, n

ow I

have

to w

ork

on H

F.”

The

impl

ied

dem

otio

n is

cle

ar.

•“Y

ou a

re w

elco

me

to a

ll th

epr

oble

ms H

F br

ings

”.•

“We

appo

logi

se fo

r the

poo

rqu

ality

of t

he n

ews b

road

cast

.It

is H

F.”

(Hea

rd o

n a

QA

NTA

S fli

ght t

o th

e U

SA).

•H

F is

an

inco

nven

ient

,ev

en d

iffic

ult m

ediu

m.

Sum

mar

y to

dat

e•

HF

prop

agat

ion

and

spac

e w

eath

er e

nvir

onm

ent

–af

fect

s HF

spec

tacu

larly

(fla

res)

,–

and

may

als

o be

unn

otic

ed (v

aria

bilit

y),

–it

unde

rlies

all

HF

syst

ems,

–an

d it

is in

esca

pabl

e.

•B

ut H

F U

sers

’–

equi

pmen

t may

be

too

inse

nsiti

ve to

resp

ond,

–m

ay h

ave

little

idea

how

they

are

bei

ng a

ffec

ted,

and

little

ince

ntiv

e to

find

out

mor

e.