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California Voters and the November 6, 2012 Election:
presented byMark DiCamillo
Director, The Field Poll
November 15, 2012CSU, Sacramento
The Field Poll
About The Field Poll’sfinal pre-election survey
Population Surveyed: California registered voters considered likely to vote in the November general election.
Interviewing Dates: October 17-30, 2012. Sample divided into two approximately equal size interviewing periods -- Wave 1: October 17-24 and Wave 2: October 25-30.
Mode of Administration: Landline and cell phone by live interviewers working from Field’s central location call center in San Diego.
Number of Interviews: 1,912 registered voters, of whom 1,566 were considered likely to vote.
Languages of English, Spanish, Cantonese, Administration: Mandarin, Korean, Vietnamese.
Asian Sample Asian-Americans were Augmentation:oversampled and included
440 registered voters to permit comparisons with white non-Hispanic, Latino and African-American voters.
Table 1
The Field Poll
51% 50%
55% 55%58%
53% 54%
59.1%
38%40%
35%37%
34%38% 39% 38.6%
Obama/Biden
Romney/Ryan
Trend of California presidential preferences between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney
Table 2
Source: The Field Poll.
The Field Poll
Jan-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Late Oct-08
Sep-11 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Late Oct-12(Wave
1)
Late Oct-12(Wave
2)
59%62% 63% 62% 61%
55%53%
58%61%
57% 57%
23%
29%26%
32%30%
41%38% 39%
36% 37%35%
2012 Election2008 Election
Favorable
Unfavorable
Trend of California voter image ratings of Barack Obama
Table 3
Source: The Field Poll.
The Field Poll
June 2011 September 2011
November 2011
May 2012 July 2012 September 2012
Late Oct 2012
(Wave 1)
Late Oct 2012
(Wave 2)
38%
34%38%
40%36%
39% 38%41%
34%
40% 39%
44%
55%53%
50% 49%
Trend of California voter impressions ofMitt Romney
Table 4
Source: The Field Poll.
Unfavorable
Favorable
The Field Poll
Is your preference more a vote for your candidate or a vote against his opponent?
Obama Voters Romney Voters
For Obama79%
AgainstRomney
14%
7% No opinion
For Romney54%
AgainstObama
39%
7% No opinion
Table 5
Source: Late October 2012 Field Poll.
The Field Poll
July 2012 September 2012 Late Oct 2012(Wave 1)
Late Oct 2012(Wave 2)
Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count
51%
57% 56%54%
61.4%
32% 31% 32% 33%
38.6%
Trend of California voter preferencesfor U.S. Senate
Table 6
Source: The Field Poll.
Feinstein (D)
Emken (R)
The Field Poll
Early July Mid-Septenber Late October
52%
59%55%
26%
33%30%
Trend of California voter impressions of Dianne Feinstein during this year’s election campaign
Table 7
Source: The Field Poll.
Favorable
Unfavorable
The Field Poll
Early July Mid-Septenber Late October
22% 22% 21%
13%9%
11%
Trend of California voter impressions of Elizabeth Emken
Table 8
Source: The Field Poll.
Favorable
Unfavorable
The Field Poll
May Early July Mid-September Late October Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count
52%54%
51%48%
53.9%
35%38%
36%38%
46.1%
Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 30, the Governor’s tax increase initiative
Table 9
Source: The Field Poll.
Yes voters
No voters
The Field Poll
Factors affecting voting preferences on Proposition 30
Table 10
Source: Late October 2012 Field Poll.
(24%) Disagree strongly
(20%) Disagree somewhat
(26%) Agree somewhat
(22%) Agree strongly
(17%) Not concerned
(21%) Somewhat concerned
(58%) Very concerned
(8%) Less than I should
(47%) About the right amount
(38%) More than I should
(17%) No opinion
(37%) Disapprove
(46%) Approve
Statewide
83%
62%
38%
19%
13%
34%
68%
72%
58%
28%
40%
21%
71%
48%
% Voting Yes
Governor Brown job rating
Amount voters feelthey pay in state taxes
Concerns about spendingcuts if Prop.30 rejected
State can provide roughlysame level of services even ifits budget is cut by $6 billion
The Field Poll
Mid-September Nov. 7Preliminary Vote Count
21%
39.2%
40%
60.8%
Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 31, the state budget reform initiative
Table 11
Source: The Field Poll.
Yes voters
No voters
The Field Poll
Early September Late October(Wave 1: Oct. 17-24)
Late October(Wave 2: Oct. 25-30)
Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count
38%34% 34%
43.9%
44%
49% 50%
56.1%
Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 32, the payroll deductions for political
contributions initiative
Table 12
Source: The Field Poll.
No voters
Yes voters
The Field Poll
Early September Late October(Wave 1: Oct. 17-24)
Late October(Wave 2: Oct. 25-30)
Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count
42%
41%45%
47.2%
45%
40%38%
52.8%
Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 34, to repeal the death penalty
Table 13
Source: The Field Poll.
Yes voters
No voters
The Field Poll
(45%) So rarely it'sunimportant
(47%) Too often
(42%) Doesn't guaranteethis
(47%) Guarantees prisonerwon't be released
(31%) Death penaltycheaper
(53%) Death penalty more expensive
17%
67%
21%
74%
27%
62%
% voting Yes on Prop. 34
Which is cheaper to apply?
What does life in prisonwithout parole mean?
How often areinnocent people executed?
How views about the death penaltyand life in prison without parole relate to
voting preferences on Prop. 34
Table 14
The Field Poll
February Late May Early July Mid-September Late October Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count
45%42%
46%
41%
34%
27.7%
48%
43%
46%44%
49%
72.3%
Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 38, the Munger tax increase initiative
Table 15
Source: The Field Poll.
No voters
Yes voters
The Field Poll
Early July Mid-September Nov. 7Preliminary Vote Count
44% 45%
60.1%
43%39% 39.9%
Trend of California voter preferences on Prop. 39,the business tax for energy funding initiative
Table 16
Source: The Field Poll.
Yes voters
No voters
The Field Poll
1994 2012
in 000’s % in 000’s %
Total registered voters14,724
100%18,246
100% +3,522,000
White non-Hispanic10,750
(73%)11,000
(60%) +250,000
Latino2,200
(15%)4,200
(23%) +2,000,000
African-American900
(6%)1,046
(6%) +146,000
Asian-American/other874
(6%)2,000
(11%)+1,126,000
The growing influence of ethnic votersin the California electorate
Table 17
Source: Totals from the California Secretary of State. Ethnic subgroups are Field Poll estimates.
The Field Poll
Differences in the party registration of California voters by race/ethnicity
California Registered Voters (Total)
Democrats43.7%
No partypreference
20.9%
6.0% Other parties
Republicans29.4%
Vietnamese American
Korean American
Chinese American
African American
Latino
White non-Hispanic
39%
43%
49%
18%
27%
25%
33%
25%
19%
5%
17%
38%
28%
32%
32%
77%
56%
37%
DemocratsRepublicansNo party preference/Other
Table 18
Source: Total percentages are from the California Secretary of State, while subgroup
percentages are Field Poll estimates