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Presented by Jerry Hembd Northern Center for Community and Economic Development Economic Overview Polk-Burnett Leadership Academy December 8, 2005 Slide 2 Supporting community and economic development in Northern Wisconsin through applied research, education and outreach Northern Center for Community and Economic Development Slide 3 Changing Development Landscape More local development organizations More sophisticated development professionals and approaches Broadening view of development and development strategies More regional, state, and national players Greater opportunity and need for networks and collaboration Slide 4 Demographics Employment Income Economic development strategies from traditional to the world is flat Slide 5 Slide 6 Slide 7 Wisconsin United States Burnett County Percentage Population Change by Decade 1900 2000 County, State and United States Polk County Slide 8 Percentage Population Change by Decade 1900 2000 Region, State and United States Wisconsin United States Northern Wisconsin Slide 9 SawyerRuskPrice IronDouglas Burnett Bayfield Ashland CountyWisconsin Percent Population Change, by Decade 1900 2000, Counties and State Wisconsin Washburn Taylor Polk Slide 10 Components of Population Change in Burnett County: 1990-2000 Slide 11 Components of Population Change in Polk County: 1990-2000 Slide 12 Slide 13 Projected Population Change in Burnett County: 2000-2030 (from 15,674 to 17,194) Slide 14 Projected Population Change in Polk County: 2000-2030 (from 41,319 to 52,257) Slide 15 Population Distribution by Age Burnett County 2005 and 2030 Burnett County in 2005Burnett County in 2030 Slide 16 Population Distribution by Age Polk County 2005 and 2030 Polk County in 2005Polk County in 2030 Slide 17 Change in Burnett County Population Between 2005 and 2030 Slide 18 Change in Polk County Population Between 2005 and 2030 Slide 19 Graying Nation By 2030, one in every five Americans will be 65 or older, according to census projections. Burnett County: From 20.3 to 36.5 % Polk County: From 15.1 to 26.4 % Slide 20 International Aging Comparisons Slide 21 Percent White Population: 2000 Wisconsin = 89% United States = 69% Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000 Slide 22 National Employment by Super Sector Slide 23 Demand-Side Situation State of Wisconsin Strong growth in the number of jobsnow and for some time Increasing demand is being driven by increase in people turning retirement age Retired population are leading consumersthey are generally wealthier than people think Slide 24 Understand the demand side, but dont forget: ITS A SUPPLY PROBLEM Slide 25 Supply Side of the Labor Market State of Wisconsin Decrease in numbers of younger entry level workers tied to decrease in births Increasing retirement of baby boomers Nearly full labor force participation rate for females Commuting net loss (90,000 out; 20,000 in) Loss in college graduates to neighboring states Low in-migration, especially foreign born immigrants (4.5% vs. 12.5% nationally) Slide 26 Wisconsin = 18.8% United States = 11.4% Share of Manufacturing Jobs Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2003 1- 9 Percent 10 - 19 Percent 20 - 29 Percent 30 39 Percent Slide 27 Wisconsin = 9.5% United States = 9.8% Share of Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2003 5 - 8 Percent 9 - 10 Percent 11 - 19 Percent 20 29 Percent Slide 28 Wisconsin = 18.8% United States = 20.9% Share of Education & Health Care Jobs Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2003 10 - 18 Percent 16 - 19 Percent 20 24 Percent 25 32 Percent Slide 29 Wisconsin = 20.6% United States = 20.8% Share of Transportation & Trade Jobs Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2002 4 - 15 Percent 16 - 21 Percent 22 29 Percent 30 55 Percent Slide 30 Northwest Counties Ashland Bayfield Burnett Douglas Iron Price Rusk Sawyer Taylor Washburn Barron Chippewa Clark Dunn Eau Claire Pepin Pierce Polk St Croix West Central Counties Slide 31 Nonfarm jobs in Northwest Wisconsin: 2003 Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2004 Slide 32 Nonfarm jobs in West Central Wisconsin: 2003 Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2004 Slide 33 10 Largest Industry Groups (almost half the jobs in NW and WC Wisconsin) Education services Food services and drinking places Nursing and resident care facilities Hospitals Executive, legislative and general government Ambulatory health care services Food and beverage stores Northwest Wood manufacturing Truck transportation Social assistance West Central Food manufacturing General merchandise stores Professional and technical services Slide 34 Top 10 Industries in Burnett County March 2004 (in rank order by size) IndustryEstablishmentsEmployees Executive, legislative, gen. government24700 Education services3425 Food services and drinking places39420 Fabricated metal product manufacturing5346 HospitalsN/A Food manufacturingN/A Nursing & residential care facilities5171 Food & beverage stores4152 Ambulatory health care services10142 Plastics & rubber products manufacturingN/A Top 10 industries 59% of total employment Slide 35 Top 10 Industries in Polk County March 2004 (in rank order by size) IndustryEstablishmentsEmployees Educational services131,481 Food Services & drinking places94949 HospitalsN/A Transportation equipment manufacturingN/A Nursing & residential care facilities13629 Ambulatory health care services49501 Fabricated metal product manufacturing26429 Food & beverage stores14422 Plastics & rubber products manufacturing13394 Specialty trade contractors75386 Top 10 industries 48% of total employment Slide 36 Top 10 Employers in Burnett County March 2004 (in rank order by size) EstablishmentProduct or Service St Croix Tribal CouncilTribal governments Park Hannifin CorpFluid power valve and hose fitting mfg Burnett Dairy CorpCheese manufacturing Burnett Medial Center IncGeneral medical and surgical hospitals Grantsburg Public SchoolElementary and secondary schools County of BurnettExecutive, legislative, & gen government offices School District of WebsterElementary and secondary schools The Evangelical Lutheran GoodNursing care facilities School District of SirenElementary and secondary schools Nexen Group IncMechanical power transmission equipment mfg Top 10 employers 38% of total employment Slide 37 Top 10 Employers in Polk County March 2004 (in rank order by size) EstablishmentProduct or Service Polaris Industries Mfg LLCAll other transportation equipment mfg. County of PolkExecutive, legislative & gen government offices St Croix Regional Medical Center InGeneral medical and surgical hospitals School District of AmeryElementary and secondary schools Osceola Public SchoolElementary and secondary schools Amery Regional Medical Center IncGeneral medical and surgical hospitals Wal-Mart Associates IncDiscount department stores Balsam Lake-Unity-Milltown PublicElementary and secondary schools Ladd Memorial Hospital IncGeneral medical and surgical hospitals Advanced Food Products LLC-Clear Lake Cheese manufacturing Top 10 employers 23% of total employment Slide 38 Labor Force Participation by Age Group Slide 39 Slide 40 Northwest Wisconsin Labor Force Current & Projected 15%8%10%-4%-6% Slide 41 West Central Wisconsin Labor Force Current & Projected 14%19%14%4%1.5% Slide 42 Growth in US Workforce By Age 2000-2010 Who Will Run Your Company? If we look at workforce growth rates by age segment, the patterns are dramatic. In the current decade, the ranks of youngest workers (ages 16-24, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics groupings) are growing by 15%, thanks to the echo boom as baby boomers children enter the workforce. The 25 to 34 year-old segment is growing at just half that rate, and the workforce population between 35 and 44 years old is actually declining. With the baby boom generation moving into middle age and its vanguard nearing retirement age, the fastest workforce growth rates are in the three oldest age segments. Slide 43 Northwest Wisconsin Job Growth by Industry 2002-2012 Slide 44 West Central Wisconsin Job Growth by Industry 2002-2012 Slide 45 16 Occupations with most new jobs 2002 - 2012 Cashiers Retail salespersons Registered nurses Nursing Aides Truck drivers (heavy/tractor-trailer) Comb food preparation (incl fast food) Waiters/Waitresses Carpenters Personal and home care aides Janitors and cleaners Sales reps (wholesale/manufacturing) General and operations managers Maintenance and repair workers (general) Northwest Office clerks/general Bartenders Maids/housekeeping cleaners West Central Home health aides Customer service reps Receptionists/info clerks Slide 46 16 Occupations with most openings 2002 - 2012 Cashiers Retail salespersons Waiters/Waitresses Comb food preparation (incl fast food) Nursing aides Truck drivers (heavy/tractor-trailer) Registered nurses Bartenders Janitors/cleaners Laborers (freight, stock, hand) Office clerks/general Carpenters Sales reps (wholesale/manufacturing) Northwest Personal and home care aides Maids/housekeeping cleaners Elementary school teachers West Central Team assemblers Stock clerks and order fillers Customer service reps Slide 47 Northwest Wisconsin 16 Occupations with greatest % increase Home Health Aides Personal Care Aides Social/Human Service Assistants Registered Nurses Preschool Teachers Electricians Receptionists & Information Clerks Bus Drivers, School Child Care Workers Counter and Rental Clerks Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters Hairdressers/Cosmetologists Carpenters Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor- Trailer Nursing Aides Child/Family/School Social Workers Slide 48 West Central Wisconsin 16 Occupations with greatest % increase Medical Assistants (+59%) Medical Records & Health Information Technicians Home Health Aides Social Service Assts Personal Care Aides Dental Hygienists Occupational Therapists Physical Therapists Dental Assistants Taxi Drivers-Chauffeurs Interviewers (not eligibility or loan) Rehab. Counselors Heating/AC/Refrig Mechanics & Installers Health Services Mgrs. Computer Software Engnrs, Applications Network/Computer Systems Administrators (33%) Slide 49 Northwest Wisconsin Education typically required in projected annual openings Slide 50 COMMUTING PATTERNS 4,513 residents live and work in county 2,221 residents commute outside the county for a job 835 residents of other counties commute to the county for work NET OUTFLOW OF 1,386 WORKERS Slide 51 COMMUTING PATTERNS 12,522 residents live and work in county 7,466 residents commute outside the county for a job 2,875 residents of other counties commute to the county for work NET OUTFLOW OF 4,591 WORKERS Slide 52 Slide 53 Slide 54 Slide 55 2002 Per Capita Personal Income Slide 56 Personal Income Components Burnett County 2003 Slide 57 Personal Income Components Polk County 2003 Slide 58 Slide 59 Slide 60 Slide 61 Slide 62 Slide 63 Slide 64 Wisconsin Lakes Distribution and Clarity Clearer lakes have smaller trophics state indexes and larger secchi depths. Slide 65 Slide 66 Comparing Permanent and Seasonal Residents Those who seek amenities characterized as being comprised of those with means.. higher incomes and better educated individuals LOCAL NON-LOCAL socio-demographic differences often stark. Slide 67 Definition of Amenities Non-marketed qualities of a locality that make it an attractive place to live or work Examples of Amenities Wildlife and flora Recreational areas Cultivated landscapes Unique settlement patterns Historic sites Social and cultural traditions Slide 68 Amenity-Led Development A key force in this development has been the growth of retirement and recreation areas in rural America Research suggests amenities have a minimal role on firm location but a much stronger role on population growth Evidence suggests recreation-dependent counties are more likely to experience fiscal stress than other rural counties The relationship between amenities and poverty rates or inequality is very weak but the relationship is much stronger, and positive, for income growth Slide 69 Creativity and the 3 Ts of Economic Development Technology Talent Tolerance SOURCE: Florida, Richard. The Rise of the Creative Class. New York: Basic Books, 2002 Slide 70 Computer and mathematical occupations Architecture and engineering occupations Life, physical, and social science occupations Education, training, and library occupations Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Super-Creative Core Creative Professionals Management occupations Business and financial operations occupations Legal occupations Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations High-end sales and sales management Slide 71 Slide 72 Key Strategies for Community Economic Development Building community capacity Attracting new basic employers Improving efficiency of existing firms Encouraging entrepreneurship Capturing outside dollars Re-acquiring dollars taxed away by broader units of government Slide 73 Northwest Wisconsin Assets Older population Recreational and seasonal homes Population growth Manufacturing base Wood products Diversity across counties Historically above state and national averages Wisconsins only oil refinery Education Levels of attainment Institutions/providers Population diversity Native American population Natural amenities Lakes, rivers Lake Superior Forests, trails, parks Arts and culture International port Proximity to the Twin Cities Development organization infrastructure Slide 74 Northern Center for Community and Economic Development Jerry Hembd, Director University of Wisconsin-Superior Belknap & Catlin, PO Box 2000 Superior, Wisconsin 54880 Phone: 715-394-8208 Fax: 715-394-8592 E-mail: jhembd@uwsuper.edu Website: http://www.uwsuper.edu/ncced Slide 75