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Presented by In-Woo Lee, Agricultural Economist, FFTC at the National Pingtong University, Taiwan On November 22, 2006. A Korean Agricultural Economist’s View. Looking at Rural Asia and Its Future Roles and Directions. FFTC/ASPAC. Outline of Presentation. FFTC/ASPAC. FFTC/ASPAC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Presented by In-Woo Lee, Agricultural Economist, FFTCat the National Pingtong University, Taiwan
On November 22, 2006
Looking at Rural Asia and Its Future Roles and Directions
A Korean Agricultural Economist’s View
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Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation
I Introduction
II Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
III Conditions for Future Development
Ⅳ New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Ⅴ Role of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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I . IntroductionI . Introduction
I IntroductionIntroduction
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Greetings and Introduction
Aim of presentation
To introduce FFTC activities toward helping students understand the commitment of the Taiwan Gov. to rural Asia
To explain my role in order to inspire and motivate the students to broaden their own horizons for the future
Focus of presentation
Describe the current situation of Asian agriculture in terms of its structure and performances
Show a logical path of future rural Asia and a framework for strategic planning
Explain engines for sustainable growth in rural Asia
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
I Introduction
II Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
III Conditions for Future Development
Ⅳ New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Ⅴ Role of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Framework of Agriculture and Its PerformancesFramework of Agriculture and Its Performances
•Agricultural Production Providing food, fiber, industrial resources, Conservation of natural resources, etc.
•Rural Economy Farmer’s household economy Regional economy Taxation
•Social Community Social institution Cultural identity Balancing national development
•Agricultural Production Providing food, fiber, industrial resources, Conservation of natural resources, etc.
•Rural Economy Farmer’s household economy Regional economy Taxation
•Social Community Social institution Cultural identity Balancing national development
Performances of Agricultural ProductionPerformances of Agricultural ProductionPerformances of Agricultural ProductionPerformances of Agricultural Production
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MarketMarket PolicyPolicyTechnologyTechnology
CapitalInvestment
CapitalInvestment
AgriculturalPopulation
AgriculturalPopulation
CultivatedLand
CultivatedLand
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (I)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (I)
• Cultivated lands in each country show stable tendency except for China
• China has the largest cultivated land in the world
• Even so, it has continuously increased its cultivated land since 1998
• Its tremendous impacts on agricultural markets have been felt all over the world, especially in Asia
- Consumption pattern - Changes in supply & demand - Influence over Asian and global markets
• Cultivated lands in each country show stable tendency except for China
• China has the largest cultivated land in the world
• Even so, it has continuously increased its cultivated land since 1998
• Its tremendous impacts on agricultural markets have been felt all over the world, especially in Asia
- Consumption pattern - Changes in supply & demand - Influence over Asian and global markets
Cultivated Lands of Asian CountriesCultivated Lands of Asian CountriesCultivated Lands of Asian CountriesCultivated Lands of Asian Countries
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Graph 2- 1. Cultivated Land Area of Nine SelectedAsian Countries (Includes China)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
1,000ha
China Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia
Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (II)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Cultivated Land (II)
• Details of the past 10 years show that China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have shown increases in cultivated land
• Meanwhile, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have shown considerable decreases in this aspect
• Details of the past 10 years show that China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have shown increases in cultivated land
• Meanwhile, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have shown considerable decreases in this aspect
Detailed Changes in Cultivated LandsDetailed Changes in Cultivated LandsDetailed Changes in Cultivated LandsDetailed Changes in Cultivated Lands
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Graph 2- 2. Cultivated Land Area of Eight SelectedAsian Countries (Excludes China)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
1,000ha
Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia
Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (I)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (I)
• Agricultural populations have shown a similar pattern with that of cultivated lands.
• Agricultural population in China has continuously increased since the 1960s
• Agricultural populations have shown a similar pattern with that of cultivated lands.
• Agricultural population in China has continuously increased since the 1960s
Agricultural Population in Asian CountriesAgricultural Population in Asian CountriesAgricultural Population in Asian CountriesAgricultural Population in Asian Countries
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Graph 2- 3. Agricultural Population in Nine SelectedAsian Countries (Includes China)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Year
1,000
China Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia
Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (II)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Agri. Pop. (II)
• China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam have shown steady increases in agricultural populations.
• On the contrary, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan have recorded decreases in agricultural populations.
• China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam have shown steady increases in agricultural populations.
• On the contrary, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan have recorded decreases in agricultural populations.
Agricultural Population by CountriesAgricultural Population by CountriesAgricultural Population by CountriesAgricultural Population by Countries
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Graph 2- 4. Agricultural Population in Eight SelectedAsian Countries (Excludes China)
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
Year
1,000
Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia
Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (I)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (I)
• The number of tractors, as an index of agricultural mechanization and capital investment in agriculture,
indicates that selected Asian countries have enhanced their productivity through farm mechanization since the 1970s
- Japan already had reached its peak in the early 1990s while other countries have shown comparatively low levels in the introduction of tractors in their agricultures
- China does not show any striking increasing rates compared to its own scale of cultivated land
• The number of tractors, as an index of agricultural mechanization and capital investment in agriculture,
indicates that selected Asian countries have enhanced their productivity through farm mechanization since the 1970s
- Japan already had reached its peak in the early 1990s while other countries have shown comparatively low levels in the introduction of tractors in their agricultures
- China does not show any striking increasing rates compared to its own scale of cultivated land
Number of Tractors in Asian CountriesNumber of Tractors in Asian CountriesNumber of Tractors in Asian CountriesNumber of Tractors in Asian Countries
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
Graph 2- 5. Number of Tractors in Nine Selected AsianCountries (Includes China and Japan)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Year
number
China Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia
Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.
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II. Current Situation of Asian AgricultureII. Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (II)Production Potential of Asian Agriculture: Capital (II)
• Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia have shown rapid increase rates in the number of tractors since the late 1980s
• It means Asian agriculture has come to enter into a capital-intensive farming stage
• Its unexpected results, farmers experienced financial bankruptcy and economic hardship during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and pushed farmers into a critical point, especially in Thailand, Korea and Indonesia
• Malaysia, Taiwan and Philippines have shown comparatively low rates of increase in the number of tractors
• Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia have shown rapid increase rates in the number of tractors since the late 1980s
• It means Asian agriculture has come to enter into a capital-intensive farming stage
• Its unexpected results, farmers experienced financial bankruptcy and economic hardship during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and pushed farmers into a critical point, especially in Thailand, Korea and Indonesia
• Malaysia, Taiwan and Philippines have shown comparatively low rates of increase in the number of tractors
Number of Tractors by CountriesNumber of Tractors by CountriesNumber of Tractors by CountriesNumber of Tractors by Countries
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Graph 2- 6. Number of Tractors in Seven SelectedAsian Countries (Excludes China and Japan)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Year
number
Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines
Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific Region.
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III . Conditions for Future DevelopmentIII . Conditions for Future Development
I Introduction
II Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
III Conditions for Future Development
Ⅳ New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Ⅴ Role of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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III. Conditions for Future DevelopmentIII. Conditions for Future Development
Agricultural Production in Asian CountriesAgricultural Production in Asian Countries
• Since 1961, most Asian countries have shown continuous increases in agricultural production except for Japan
• Japan already had entered a stagnant increase rate in agricultural production since the 1970s. Taiwan and Korea has followed the decreasing trend
• In spite of farmers’ economic hardship, agricultural production in Asian countries has increased. Every country faces a critical point to be overcome amid rapid globalization of agricultural market
• Since 1961, most Asian countries have shown continuous increases in agricultural production except for Japan
• Japan already had entered a stagnant increase rate in agricultural production since the 1970s. Taiwan and Korea has followed the decreasing trend
• In spite of farmers’ economic hardship, agricultural production in Asian countries has increased. Every country faces a critical point to be overcome amid rapid globalization of agricultural market
Indices of Agricultural ProductionIndices of Agricultural ProductionIndices of Agricultural ProductionIndices of Agricultural Production
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Graph 3- 1. Indices of Agricultural Production in NineSelected Asian Countries (1961- 2005)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Year
100=average of1999- 2001
China Indonesia J apan Korea Malaysia
Philippines Taiwan Thailand Viet Nam
Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Divis ion 2006 | 19 November 2006. FFTC, Major Agricultural Statistics in the Asian and Pacific
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III. Conditions for Future DevelopmentIII. Conditions for Future Development
Agri. Economist’s role: How to Contribute to Future DevelopmentAgri. Economist’s role: How to Contribute to Future Development
• Assess your country’s status in the context of its agricultural development, and
• Prepare a strategic plan for future agricultural development.
• For Agricultural Economist, change is regarded as a move to another balancing point
• How to move the current balancing point to a desirable balancing point
• What variables should you control to achieve the balance?
• Assess your country’s status in the context of its agricultural development, and
• Prepare a strategic plan for future agricultural development.
• For Agricultural Economist, change is regarded as a move to another balancing point
• How to move the current balancing point to a desirable balancing point
• What variables should you control to achieve the balance?
Assessment and PreparationAssessment and PreparationAssessment and PreparationAssessment and Preparation
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Upward Development
Status QuoDevelopme
nt
DownwardDevelopmen
t
Goals&
Targets
Agriculture
Past Present
Target Year
External Conditions
Internal Conditions
Figure 3-1. Logical Development Path of Agriculture
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III. Conditions for Future DevelopmentIII. Conditions for Future Development
Key Words to a Strategic Planning for Future DevelopmentKey Words to a Strategic Planning for Future Development
Key Words and ConstraintsKey Words and ConstraintsKey Words and ConstraintsKey Words and Constraints
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Goals & Targets
- Industrial, Rural Economics, Social Community
- Food Security, Food Safety, Sustainable Growth
External Conditions
- Markets, Technologies, Policies
Internal Conditions
- Arable Land, Agri. Population, Capital Investment
Policy Measures
- Individual, Organizational, Legal and Institutional
Constraints
- Continuous Growth of Agriculture since WWII
- Widening Gap b/w Farmers
Upward Development
Status QuoDevelopme
nt
DownwardDevelopmen
t
Goals&
Targets
Agriculture
Past Present
Target Year
External Conditions
Internal Conditions
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Ⅳ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural AsiaⅣ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
I Introduction
II Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
III Conditions for Future Development
Ⅳ New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Ⅴ Role of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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Ⅳ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural AsiaⅣ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Past and Present Engines for DevelopmentPast and Present Engines for Development
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
Past
- Designed to accumulate more input resources to be utilized in the agricultural field
- More production promises more income, finally focusing on input
Present
- Conditions inside and outside agriculture have changed
- More precise and highly-developed engines are needed, focusing on reallocating resources
US and EU: renovation of old rural development programs
- reallocating the combination of agricultural production factors
- Externally improve farmers’ market access capacities thru trade negotiations, WTO, FTA
- Internally promote volunteer groups to commit to the revitalization of rural economies
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Ⅳ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural AsiaⅣ. New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Examples of New Engines in Asian CountriesExamples of New Engines in Asian Countries
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Japan
- JA-Jenzhu promotes a social movement that links “People’s Diet and Agriculture”
Korea
- NACF has launched the “Caring for Rural Community” movement since 2005
Taiwan
- Taiwanese government has started the “New Agriculture Movement”
Common Interest in these countries
- Each of them envisions that dietary connection, mutual coexistence, and young farmers will serve as the new engine for future agricultural development in each country
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V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
I Introduction
II Current Situation of Asian Agriculture
III Conditions for Future Development
Ⅳ New Engines for the Sustainable Growth of Rural Asia
Ⅴ Role of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
Mission of FFTC/ASPACMission of FFTC/ASPAC
•Established in 1970 as an international information center in the Asian and Pacific Region
•Mission Collect and disseminate technical information on agricultural production, in order to achieve increased output and higher incomes for small-scale farmers in the region
•Organizational Structure - Executive Board Meeting - Working Group Meeting - Technical Advisory Committee - Technical Staff and - International Cosponsor Institutions
•Established in 1970 as an international information center in the Asian and Pacific Region
•Mission Collect and disseminate technical information on agricultural production, in order to achieve increased output and higher incomes for small-scale farmers in the region
•Organizational Structure - Executive Board Meeting - Working Group Meeting - Technical Advisory Committee - Technical Staff and - International Cosponsor Institutions
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
Major Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPAC
Regional Field Surveys For 35 years, 21 surveys•Seminars and Workshops 185 Seminars and Workshops•Training Courses 46 Training Courses•Field Demonstration Projects 9 Field Demonstrations•Publications 549 Extension Bulletins, 165 Technical Bulletins, 62 Books, 145 Issues of Newsletter 34 Annual Reports, 121 Practical Technology Leaflets, etc.•Websites and Database•Strengthen Regional Agri. Cooperation
Regional Field Surveys For 35 years, 21 surveys•Seminars and Workshops 185 Seminars and Workshops•Training Courses 46 Training Courses•Field Demonstration Projects 9 Field Demonstrations•Publications 549 Extension Bulletins, 165 Technical Bulletins, 62 Books, 145 Issues of Newsletter 34 Annual Reports, 121 Practical Technology Leaflets, etc.•Websites and Database•Strengthen Regional Agri. Cooperation
Major Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPACMajor Activities of FFTC/ASPAC
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
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V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”V . Roles of FFTC in the ASPAC Region and “Q & A”
Future Directions: FFTC Strategic Plan for 2007-2011Future Directions: FFTC Strategic Plan for 2007-2011
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC
TARGETED TOPICS
TARGETED TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGIES FOR COLLECTION AND
TRANSFEREnhanced Information and Technology Collection and Dissemination/Transfer
STRATEGIC MISSION
Increased Income andImproved Livelihood of Small-scale Farmers
Improved Food Safety
Enhancement ofEnvironment-Friendly Technology
Sustainable Use ofNatural Resources
OPERATIONAL STRATEGY FFTC WORK PROGRAM 2007-2011
- Status and roles of agriculture and needs of farmers have changed
-Review existing strategic plan
- Outlining four strategic missions and plan for 2007-2011
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Thank you for your attention!
謝謝您 !
FFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPACFFTC/ASPAC