Presented By

HOSNY KHORDAGUI, Ph.D.Director of Water Governance Program

in Arab States

UNDP-RBAS

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A Framework Methodology for Assessing Vulnerability of the Water Sector to CC in

the Arab Region

OBJECTIVES OF PRESENTATIONTWO OBJECTIVES

1. To overview CC concerns, describe potential impacts & explore the degree of vulnerability of CC on the water resources in the Arab Region to justify the proposed work.

2. To propose a framework methodology for assessing the vulnerability of the water sector to climate change with the aim of developing & mainstreaming adaptation measures & policies to improve the resilience of the countries in the region to cope with the negative implications of CC on the water resources.

WHY ?3. To provide food for thoughts to brain-storm & further discuss with

distinguished experts & partners the most appropriate approach for assessing potential impacts & resulting vulnerability of communities to CC in Arab States.

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WHY THE CONCERN ?

1. Studies indicate that by the end of the century, the Fertile Crescent might simply disappear.

2. Even if GHGs emissions were stabilized today, droughts & floods will continue for many decades.

3. Exacerbation effects of CC on water scarcity can trigger international conflicts & disputes among countries sharing water resources at inter - & intraregional levels.

4. The consequences of CC on water resources in the Arab region are likely to be felt the hardest by the most vulnerable groups such as women, children, poor, shepherds, farmers, indigenous people, etc.

5. Impacts of CC on the water resources in the Arab Region will undermine national development plans & affect human security. It will act as a push factor for massive population displacement causing socio-economic & plausibly political instability.

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WAT ARE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CC ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE ARAB REGION ?

I - IMPACTS OF CC ON GROUNDWATER RESOURCES:• Higher sea level would cause seawater intrusion. • Downpours increase runoff & flash floods reducing the

ability of water to infiltrate to recharge aquifers (Gono Case).

II - IMPACT OF CC ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES:• CC may reduce Euphrates & Tigris flow by as much as

30-50% in one estimate & 29-73% in another.• As more winter precipitation falls as rain instead of

snow in Syria, Lebanon, Atlas mountains & parts of Iraq.

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III - IMPACT OF CC ON DESALINATION INDUSTRY:1. CC leading to higher To of cooling water will reduce the

efficiency of the operation.2. High salinity resulting from evaporation of feed water at

sea-water intakes will affect production capacity.3. Higher To of near-shore increases biological content

leading to the use of higher doses of chlorine to control bio-fouling.

4. Higher chlorine doses reacts with natural precursors to form the carcinogenic THMs. These brominated VLHs would appear in the produced drinking water by co-distillation.

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IV - IMPACTS OF CC ON WQ:1. Higher water To will affect REDOX potential,

DO, stratification, biological growth & self purification with significant impacts on WQ.

2. Higher To will promote algal blooms & increase bacterial & fungal content. Chlorination of water for disinfection would lead to bad odor & taste & forms toxins.

3. Extreme events of flood will lead to the wash-out of pollutants & toxins into water bodies.

4. Drought will lead to water stagnation; eutrophication; accumulation, bio-accumulation & bio-magnification of pollutants.

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WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADAPT

• Adaptation to CC can be defined as actions societies take in response to, or in anticipation of, projected or actual CC, to reduce adverse impacts posed by this.

• How Arab States are responding to CC? Presently, Arab States opt for an ad-hoc approach known as spontaneous or autonomous adaptation, which does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli, but is rather triggered by changes in natural hydrological systems & by market changes in human systems.

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Q: HOW CAN ARAB COUNTRIES ADAPT TO CC ?

A: THROUGH A FOUR STEPS APPROACH

I. Assessment of potential impacts of CC on water resources.Equivalent to Risk Identification

II. Assessment of vulnerability of communities & targeted groups.

Equivalent to Risk AssessmentIII. Development of a CC adaptation strategy.

Equivalent to Risk ManagementIV. Embedment of CC adaptation strategy into national &

local SD strategies.11

I- IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CC ON WATER RESOURCES

• Potential impacts are estimated as the difference between the two states of the water resources projected to take place with & without CC.

• How can we do that ? 1. Project the water, environment & socio-economic trends

without CC under different scenarios. 2. Develop Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) to predict

regional climate under various scenarios.3. Project the state of water resources with CC under the most

likely scenario.4. Project socio-economic & environmental trends with CC

under the most likely scenario.5. Assess the impact by measuring the differences between with

& without CC. 12

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2000 2020 2050 2070 2100

Current availability without CC

with CC

Impact

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Water Resources

years

From: The Hadley Center “Regional Climate Modeling System (2001)14

II- VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

• Vulnerability can be defined as the characteristics of a community in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist & recover from the impact of CC.

• Vulnerability will provide the means to understand how the impacts of CC will be distributed, primarily to identify how it can be reduced.

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CRITERIA FOR ASSESSING VULNERABILITY

1. Persistence & Reversibility: Extension of species, salinization of near-shore ground water resources, desertification of arable lands, etc.

2. Magnitude: number of people affected or dislocating, intensity & extent of damage, income or revenue losses, number of people to suffer from food or water shortage or loss of shelter, surface area coverage, etc.

3. Timing: Present observed impacts of CC, estimated rate of change i.e. rapid, sudden, extended, etc.

4. Degree of certainty: Risk = Impact x Probability. 5. Capacity to Adapt: Degree of community resilience, availability of

resources, institutional & legislative capacities, status of health services, financial capacity, level of education, ability for retraining & rehabilitation, availability of knowledge & information, political stability, etc.

6. Distribution among groups: Which group of people will suffer the most? Women, children, elderly, the poor, the marginalized, the farmers, the shepherds, etc.

7. Specificity of the Vulnerable Sector: Due to severe water scarcity, the water resources is of extreme importance for communities specially that 65% originates from outside the region.

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WHY IS IT BELIEVED THAT ARAB STATES ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO THE IMPACTS OF CC ON WATER RESOURCES ?

1. Over-dependence in the region on climate-sensitive water sectors such as agriculture, grazing, eco-tourism, aquaculture, etc.

2. Most countries suffer from already debilitated ecological base, (land degradation, water pollution, desertification, loss in biodiversity, etc.)

3. Heavy reliance on international fresh water resources from upstream countries to be severely affected by CC.

4. databases to assess & predict potential CC impacts are extremely limited. 5. Poor pre-existing health conditions & services in some ME countries. 6. Chronic political instability & conflicts in some Arab States. 7. Technological skills & human resources are inadequate for adaptation.8. Fragmented & inefficient institutions; ineffective policies & poor compliance

with water legislations. 9. Most water resources managers in ME are influenced by a management culture

that is based on minimum variability or low uncertainty. 10. High rate of population growth with non-commensuration in the rate of socio-

economic development.17

BUT HOW CAN WE ASSESS VULNERABILITY TO CC?

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PROPOSED LOGICAL FRAMEWORK1. Use the information derived from regional impact assessment to identify,

with the minimum possible uncertainty, the extent & distribution of impact of CC on water resources. REGIONAL

2. Demark the most vulnerable geographic locations & people in areas to be affected by the impacts of CC on water resources. NATIONAL & LOCAL

3. Assess the vulnerability of the economic systems (agricultural productivity, hydro-power generation, tourism, exports, food imports, etc.)

4. Assess the vulnerability of the environment to impacts of CC on water resources to include desertification, WQ deterioration, pollution accumulation, reduction in bio-diversity, etc.

5. Use GIS to construct development baselines using national & local development status such as poverty maps, demographic distribution & development indicators such as health services, resources, level of education, employment, average income, economic activities, etc.

6. Identify the most vulnerable groups and assess the degree of vulnerability of various social groupings such as, women, infants, poor, marginalized, indigenous, etc.

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FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN PERFORMING CCVA

1. The time-frame & budget available to conduct CCVA.2. The geographic planning area to focus CCVA.3. Question CCVA should be able to answer4. Decision CCVA should be able to support5. The extent of political support needed for CCVA.6. Necessity for developing assessment models.7. Capacity of local communities to apply the developed models for

future uses under various scenarios.8. What scenario community wants to model? Best case, most likely

case, etc.

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HOW CAN WE ASSESS VULNERABILITY?• Vulnerability of the water sector to CC is a function of

the sector’s sensitivity & adaptive capacity to CC.• Based on this fact, vulnerability can be assessed in 3

steps.

1. STEP 1: Conduct sensitivity analysis of water sector to CC.

2. STEP 2: Evaluate the adaptive capacity of the water sector to CC.

3. STEP 3: Determine degree of vulnerability of water sector from steps 1 & 2.

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STEP 1: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS• Sensitivity of the water sector to CC is the degree to which it is

directly or indirectly affected by change in climate conditions such as precipitation, droughts, storms, temperature, sea-level rise, etc.

• The answer to the following questions will enable you analyze the degree of sensitivity of the water sector to CC into three rankings 1- High, 2- moderate & 3- low.

How exposed is the water sector to the impacts of CC? Is the water sector already subject to existing stresses? Will CC cause a wider gap between supply & demand? What are the limiting factors that may be affected by CC? (example:

Trans-boundary Water Resources) What are the projected stresses to the water sector prior to any

preparedness action? 22

STEP 2: EVALUATION OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • The adaptive capacity is the ability of the water sector to

accommodate changes in CC with minimum disruption or additional cost.

• The answer to the following questions will enable you analyze the adaptive capacity of the water sector to CC into three rankings 1- High, 2- moderate & 3- low. Is the water sector already able to accommodate CC? use of reclaimed

water, adequate reservoirs, etc. Is there any barriers to the water sector ability to accommodate CC?

Institutions, regulatory, availability of relevant information, good water governance, competing uses, participation, etc.

Is the water sector already stressed in a way to hinder its adaptation capacity to CC?

Is the rate of CC likely to be faster than the adaptability of the water sector to CC?

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STEP 3: DEGREE OF VULNERABILITY

• Combine the findings about sensitivity & adaptability of the water sector to CC to determine how, where, who & to what extent water sectors, communities & target groups will be vulnerable to CC impacts on water resources.

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WATER RESOURCES

CURRENT & EXPECTED

STREESES TO WATER

RESOURCES IN A SPECIFIC COMMUNITY

PROJECTED CC IMPACTS TO

WATER RESOURCES IN

A SPECIFIC COMMUNITY

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTDEGREE OF

SENSITIVITY OF WATER SECTOR

IN SPECIFIC COMMUNITY

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF

WATER SECTOR IN SPECIFIC

COMMUNITY

VULNERABILITY OF WATER SECTOR

IN SPECIFIC COMMUNITY

SURFACE WATER

EXTENDED DROUGHT

MORE DROUGHT &

WATER STRESS DUE TO LOWER PRECIPITATION IN UPSTREAM COUNTRIES. POPULATION GROWTH & ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT WILL

COMPOUND THE PROBLEM

HIGHSUPPLY IS VERY SENSITIVE TO

PRECIPITATION IN UPSTREAM COUNTRIES,

FAST RATE OF POPULATION

GROWTH, WATER QUALITY DEGRADATION,

ETC.

LOWCONSTRAINTS ON

REALLOCATING WATER, LIMITED

OPTIONS TO EXPAND SUPPLY, GROUNDWATER OVERDRAFTED,

ETC.HIGH

III- DEVELOPMENT OF ADAPTATION STRATEGY

• As an outcome of the vulnerability assessment, water resources managers & stakeholders in the region would be able to formulate an adaptation strategy.

• Some adaptation measures might offset mitigation of GHGs emissions. Meeting water demand would involve construction of new desalination plants, pumping stations, etc.

• It is imperative to link adaptation to mitigation, which currently operates separately at most governance levels in Arab States.

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What are the main components of CC adaptation strategy ?

Adaptation Strategy comprises two main components.I. Facilitation (Soft Component): It involves activities that enhance

adaptive capacity of the water sector to CC through: 1. Policy formulation, integration, multi-stakeholder dialogue,

institutional & legislative strengthening , etc.2. Activation of economic instruments to enhance efficiency & promote

innovation in water saving.3. Improving awareness, communicating risks, disseminating best

practices & building consensus among vulnerable communities on means & measures for improving their resilience to CC.

4. Building capacity of water officials in managing water resources under extreme variations.

5. Improving water governance. Transparency, equity, accountability & rule of law will play a major role in the public perception & acceptance of adaptation measures.

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II- Implementation (Hard Component): It refers to field activities & physical solutions that actually assist in alleviating or avoiding adverse impacts of CC on water resources.

• In light of the water shortage predicted for the region in this century, major water infrastructure programs might need to be developed. This would include construction of new dams, reservoirs, desalination plants, water & wastewater treatment plants, etc.

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IV- MAINSTREAMING ADAPTATION INTO NATIONAL & LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS

• Embedding CC adaptation measures into sector policies, programs & projects expands the range of opportunities for reducing vulnerability & also enables impacts to be addressed in a more streamlined, integrated & economically efficient manner.

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND

ATTENTION