Presented by:

ECONorthwest

March 3, 2011

AgendaProject progress report (5 minutes)Preliminary results of the HNA (20 minutes)

Presentation by ECONorthwest

Discussion (60 minutes)General comments on the housing needs analysis

methods, data, or resultsDiscussion: Are the preliminary findings about housing

mix and density consistent with what you know about housing need in Newport?

Implications of Preliminary Findings of the Housing Needs Analysis (35 minutes)

State RequirementsGoal 10, OAR 660-008

Requires coordination of population projections by counties (ORS 195.036);

Requires cities to complete an inventory of buildable residential lands;

Cities should encourage the availability of adequate numbers of housing units in price and rent ranges commensurate with the financial capabilities of its households;

Requires demonstration of a 20-year buildable land supply.

State RequirementsNeeded housing types include (but are not

limited to):Single family detached and attachedMulti-family housing for owner and renter

occupancyGovernment assisted housingMobile/manufactured dwellings in parks and on

individual lots

Current Conditions of Newport’s 5,500 dwellings69% are Single-Family Detached and

Manufactured58% of Newport’s occupied units are owner-

occupied19% are vacant

16% or 1,075 dwellings are vacant for seasonal or recreational use

Rental units are older on average than owner unitsOwner-occupied median year built is 1978Renter-occupied median year built is 1974

Most recent development was for single-family, 2000-2010Permits issued for

572 units69% Single-family

and manufactured31% Multifamily

52 permits issued annually

Most new multifamily was in condominiums31% Multi-family

27% Condos2% Apartments2%

Duplex/Tri-/Quads69% Single-family

Most new dwellings were single-family in HDR, 2000-2010

Low Density Residential: 24% of new dwellingsMostly single-family

High Density Residential: 63% of new dwellingsMostly single-family

Commercial: 13% of new dwellingsMostly Condos

Percent of dwellings by in each plan designation

Housing density averaged 8.8 dwellings/net acre, 2000-2010LDR: 5.3 du/net acre

Mostly single-family an average of more than 5 du/net acre

HDR: 9.9 du/net acreSingle family was more than 8 du/net acreCondo and apartment were between 14 and 16

du/net acreCommercial: 29.1 du/net

Mostly condominium at more than 32 du/net acre

Newport has more lower income householdsHouseholds earning

less than $25,000 annuallyNewport: 34%Oregon: 24%

Households earning less than $50,000 annuallyNewport: 57%Oregon: 51%

Homeownership became less affordable since 2000The ratio of housing

value to income increased since 1990Newport: 2.8 to 6.3Oregon: 2.5 to 5.0

Average single-family sales price increased by nearly $75,000 or 47%

Affordable rental housing is difficult to findA household must earn

about $30,000 to afford a two-bedroom rental (at $759 per month)More than 1/3 of

households cannot afford a two-bedroom rental

About ½ of renter households pay more than 30% of their income on housing costs

Where Residents of Newport Work

Affordable rental housing is difficult to find

Two-thirds of Newport’s workers live outside Newport

Newport currently has a deficit of about 500 dwellings affordable for people earning < $25,000

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Newport’s rental housing stock is older and in poor condition

Where Workers in Newport Live

Factors affecting future housing needs

Aging Baby Boomers37% of Lincoln County’s pop in 2030, up from 25% in 2000Range of housing needs

Remain in current housing

Move to group housing when necessary

Downsize to smaller units

State Forecast of Age Change in Lincoln County, 2000 to 2030

Factors affecting future housing needsGrowth of Echo BoomersCurrently the largest age-groupBy 2030, the majority will be 35 to 48 years oldGrowth in Newport will depend on availability of jobsHousing choice will depend on income, age, and family composition

Affordability will be a concern, especially when youngerMay need multifamily housing when youngerMay need single-family when older, with higher income

and a family

Factors affecting future housing needsGrowth of immigrantsImmigrants are one of the fastest growing groups

Hispanic and Latinos are the fastest growing immigrants

By 2050, 25% of the U.S. population will be HispanicGrowth in Newport will depend on availability of jobsHousing choice will depend on income, age, and family composition

Affordability will be a concern, especially in first generation and when younger

Will need multi-family and single-family, depending on affordability

Conclusion: Newport will need more multifamily housing

Variable

Estimate of Housing Units

(2011-2031)

Change in persons 1,603minus Change in persons in group quarters 47equals Persons in households 1,556

Average household size 2.19New occupied DU 711

times Aggregate vacancy rate 19.0%equals Vacant dwelling units 135

Total new dwelling units (2011-2031) 846Dwelling units by structure type

Single-family detachedPercent single-family detached DU 60%

equals Total new single-family detached DU 508Multifamily

Percent multifamily detached DU 40%Total new multifamily DU 338

equals Total new dwelling units (2011-2031) 846Dwelling units needed annually 42

Average density by housing type will remain the sameDensity by housing type will stay constant

Single-family: 7.0 du/net acreMulti-family: 18.7 du/net acre

Overall density will increase from 8.8 to 9.3 du/net acre because of increase in percent of multifamily

Average density by housing type will remain the sameResult shows that Newport will need 112

gross acres of residential land91 gross acres for single-family housing21 gross acres for multi-family housing

Newport has ample land to accommodate housing

Land available for multi-family housing for residents is limited and may be located in the wrong areas

Newport needs more affordable rental housingNewport’s policies should emphasize meeting

the needs of current and future full-year residents

Newport has a deficit of affordable, quality rental housing for current and potential residents

Renters want high-quality housing that is suited to NewportHigher amenity, well constructedHousing types other than apartmentsAffordable units