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The Hon Peter Costello MP Treasurer. Presentation to the Young Presidents’ Organisation. Australia’s economic position in 1996. Source: ABS Cat. No.5206.0. Underlying cash balance. Source: Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2005-06. General government net debt. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Presentation to the Young Presidents’ Organisation
The Hon Peter Costello MPTreasurer
Australia’s economic position in 1996
Source: ABS Cat. No.5206.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1972-73 1976-77 1980-81 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Per cent Per cent
Underlying cash balance
Source: Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2005-06
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07(e) 2008-09(p)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ou
tco
me
s
Est
ima
tes
Pro
ject
ion
s
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
General government net debt
Source: Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2005-06
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
United States Japan Canada OECD Australia
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Decade from 1997 to 2006
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
Continuing economic growth
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5206.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1972-73 1976-77 1980-81 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Per cent Per cent
Australia’s economic recovery(The difference between Australian and OECD average GDP per person)*
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board, Total Economy Database, August 2005, http://www.ggdc.net
* 'OECD' includes only the 24 oldest member countries
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
The difference between Australia and the OECD average
GDP per capita (2002 dollars) GDP per capita (2002 dollars)
Current account balance
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5302.0, 5206.0 and Treasury
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Fo
reca
st
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
Terms of trade
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5302.0
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep-63 Sep-69 Sep-75 Sep-81 Sep-87 Sep-93 Sep-99 Sep-05
70
80
90
100
110
120
130Ratio (2003-2004 = 100) Ratio (2003-2004 = 100)
Australia’s GDP rank (2004, US$billion, PPP exchange rates)
Source: IMF WEO database, September 2005
Rank Country US$billion Share of World GDP (%)
1 United States 11,605 20.92 China 7,334 13.23 Japan 3,817 6.94 India 3,291 5.95 Germany 2,392 4.36 United Kingdom 1,736 3.17 France 1,725 3.18 Italy 1,620 2.99 Brazil 1,462 2.6
10 Russia 1,449 2.611 Canada 1,050 1.912 Korea 1,030 1.913 Mexico 1,005 1.814 Spain 972 1.715 Indonesia 801 1.416 Australia 602 1.117 Taiwan 590 1.118 Turkey 530 1.019 Iran 519 0.920 Thailand 512 0.9
Share of global population*
2005 Share 2050 Share 2050 (2005 plus projected growth rate of population)
World 100 100 140.4United States 4.6 4.4 6.1Europe 11.3 7.2 10.1China 20.4 15.3 21.5India 17.1 17.5 24.6Africa 14 21.3 30.0ASEAN 9.1 8.3 12.4Japan 2.1 1.2 1.8Korea 0.8 0.5 0.7Other 20.3 23.9 32.7Australia 0.3 0.3 0.4
Source: Treasury calculations based on UN Population Division projections
* Due to rounding, individual country and region figures will not add up exactly to the world figure
Share of global GDP (PPP)
Share of World GDP (%) 2004 2050
China 13.2 20.3India 5.9 12.3United States 20.9 14.3European Union 21.0 10.0Australia 1.1 0.7
Source: IMF data and Treasury Estimates 2005