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Presentation to the
Eilat-Eilot Green Energy6th International Conference & Exhibition
Eilat, Israel Dr. James A. Walker
9 December 2014 Princeton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusIn a Climate Driven Society:
Can California Cope?
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Outline• The Drivers
• The Energy Front
• The Water Front
• The Nexus
Disclaimer: All views expressed herein are the
personal opinions of James A. Walker and not official
policy of any company, agency or other organization
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy Rebranding Needed Here
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Global Temperature Increasing
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Outline• The Drivers
• The Energy Front
• The Water Front
• The Nexus
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Milestones in California Energy Policy
• 1972 – Santa Barbara Oil Spill/RAND Corporation Energy Futures Study
• 1975 -1984 – Jerry Brown is youngest Governor of CA
• 1975 – California Energy Commission established – Joins CPUC and CARB as key agencies
• 1977 – Last nuclear plant proposed in CA cancelled – the “soft path” taken
• 1979-1986 – CA builds 10,000 MW of Alternative generation – 25% of load
• 1987-1999 – CA forgets about renewables
• 2000-2001 – CA tries electric sector deregulation – Enron wins, everyone else loses; Brown’s former Chief of Staff replaced by the Governator
• 2006 – AB 32 enacted – Requires GHG emissions 80% below 1990 by 2050; upheld by 62/34% majority in 2010 referendum
• 2010-2018 – Jerry Brown is oldest Governor of California
• 2011 – Bill enacted requiring 33% renewable generation by 2020.
• 2013 – Obama Climate Action Plan announced
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
1972 – Utility Forecasts Imply Need for a 1200 MW plant every 7 miles along the CA Coast by
year 2000
California Per Capita Electricity Use Constant Since 1975
So
urc
e: A
rt R
ose
nfe
ld
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Efficiency Works!
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
CA Will Have 33% Renewable Energy in Electric Generation by 2020
Hydro over 30 MW not included
So
urc
e: C
alif
orn
ia A
ir R
eso
urc
es B
oa
rd
DeCarbonizing the Whole System by 2050
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Outline• The Drivers
• The Energy Front
• The Water Front
• The Nexus
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Milestones in California Water Policy
• 1848 – Gold Rush – leads to system of Appropriated Water Rights (“Use it or Lose it”)
• 1902-1928 – CA Water Wars - LA Aqueduct
• 1904 – Construction accident creates Salton Sea (350 sq. mi.)
• 1924 – Worst draught in precipitation terms (not damages)
• 1930s – High Lift turbine pumps developed to tap deep ground water
• 1933 – Federal Central Valley Project to bring NoCal water to Central Valley farms and cities
• 1936 – Hoover Dam completed on Colorado River
• 1959-67 - Pat Brown Governor - State Aqueduct project
• 1975-2014 – Ongoing debate over canal/tunnel in Northern CA Delta
• 2014 - Drought most damaging in CA history
• 2014 - $7.5B Water Bond approved by voters
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Hydraulic Mining for Gold(It seemed like progress at the time)
Precipitation vs. Population
Feast or Famine
Major Water
Projects
Federal – Central Valley
Project (CVP)
State – State Water
Project (SWP)
Local – Many other
projects throughout state,
including Colorado River
system, Hetch Hetchy,
EBMUD, Owens ValleySource: Water Environment Foundation
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
California Drought 2014
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Current Snapshot
Drought Monitor
Local Emergencies Declared
• 23 Counties
• 13 Cities
• 08 Tribal Reservations
• 11 Special Districts
County & Tribal Drought
Task Force
• 30 Counties
• 02 Tribes
Official State of Emergency Declared in California on January 17, 2014
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Jan 18, 2013 Jan 18, 2014
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Selected impacts• 430,000+ acres fallowed
• Diminished yield on others
• 17,000+ out of work
• Communities running out of drinking water
• Fish and wildlife impacts
• Increased wildfires=$$, ecological devastation, air, land, and water impacts
Solution set—now and future• Every region different, not one answer, but suite of answers• Integrated Water Management at all levels; more regional water
security• Conservation/Recycling/Stormwater/Desalination• Storage and Conveyance• Dealing with the Delta• Accelerating groundwater contamination
prevention/treatment/use• Upper watershed connection/management• Multiple benefit thinking across departments and disciplines;
rewarding and promoting voluntary solutions; moving beyond comfortable rhetoric to action
• “All of the above” not “either/or”
Comment: Need to add Markets and Pricing
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Voters OK $7.5 B CA Water Bond• Water Storage
• Watershed/Restoration
• Groundwater
• Regional reliability
• Recycling
• Clean Drinking Water
• Flood Management
• $2,700 million
• $1,405 million
• $ 900 million
• $ 810 million
• $ 735 million
• $ 520 million
• $ 395 million
25
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Outline• The Drivers
• The Energy Front
• The Water Front
• The Nexus
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Energy Technologies Arrived “Just in Time”
If Deployed at Scale & Costs Fairly Shared
Wind and Solar Can Scale Rapidly
29
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
61GW & 47,000 Wind Turbines in US
See interactive map of every turbine at: http://eerscmap.usgs.gov/windfarm/
What Gets Rewarded Gets Done
•Federal Tax Incentives, power contracts and financing based on production not investment
•Drives long term productivity in site selection, turbine performance and reliability, environmental mitigation, local benefits
•US wind plants 2 times as productive as China per MW
31
Wall Street Declares Efficiency, Wind & Solar the Low Cost Winners (with or without subsidies)
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Efficiency $0/MWH Wind $37/MWH $60/MWH
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
The PV Pimple
“Duck Curve” Caused by High Levels of PV
34
Reference Duck
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
13,000 MW ramp in 2 hrs
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
www.lowcarbongrid2030.org
The IPP Answer
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Creating New Energy Markets is Crucial• Wholesale power now paid on $/kWH basis with
some time of day pricing
– Some “Resource Adequacy” value for solar’s predictability
• “Behind the Meter” solar growing rapidly – gets retail price but payment for grid services open issue
• “Energy Imbalance Market” recently established by California system operator to allow utilities outside the system to meet needs on a 5 minute basis
• Tariffs and markets needed for future “ancillary services” including storage, ramping, voltage support, etc.
Innovation in WaterCategories of Technology
• Supply Enhancement– Desalination
– Recycling and reclamation
• Demand Management– Smart meters
– Irrigation controllers
– Drip irrigation
• Governance Improvement– Advanced data collection
– Leak detection
Types of Innovation
• Smart Water
• Efficiency and Conservation
• Purification
• Alternative sources
• Storage
• Groundwater
38
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Investment in Innovation in US Clean Energy and Water Sectors 2000-2013
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
41
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Do not laugh at biomimicry: the battery was invented by Alessandro Volt in
1700 trying to reproduce the structure of the electric eel. (NYT 8 Dec 2014)
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Creating Water Markets is Crucial• Historical solutions no longer viable:
– More diversions, more dams and reservoirs, using more groundwater
– Few incentives for water conservation or reuse
• “Shopping for Water”* Proposals:
– Reform rules that discourage trading
– Create market institutions to facilitate trading
– Use risk mitigation to enhance reliability
– Protect groundwater resources
– Need for Federal and State leadership*”Shopping for Water: How the Market Can Mitigate Water Shortages in the American
West” Culp, Glennan, Libecap, The Hamilton Project ,Discussion Paper 2014-06,
October 2014
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Policy Principles• Leadership really matters
• What gets rewarded gets done
• You cannot manage what you are not measuring
• Markets are a useful tool, not a panacea or a religion
– Proper pricing is the best policy
– Pricing structures almost impossible to change – that’s how the vested interests bought their vests
• Enlightened regulation is rare but not an oxymoron
– One Stop Siting for Desalination as for Power Plants
• The challenges ahead are global and intergenerational – but so was the Cold War
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy
Can California Cope?
Of course!
(with some help from its friends)
Dr. James WalkerPrinceton Energy Group
The Water Energy NexusEilat-Eilot Green Energy