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Presentation to City of Minneapolis, Policy Liaison Team
Andi Egbert, Assistant Director, MN State Demographic Center
January 22, 2015
Website: mn.gov/demography | Twitter: @MN_StateData
+ What is the role of the
MN State Demographic Center?
Serve as a liaison to the Census Bureau and assist with the decennial census counts
Create MN population estimates and projections
Analyze, interpret and distribute data from the state, U.S. Census Bureau and other sources
Offer data and technical assistance to legislators, all levels of government, organizations and citizens across the state
Monitor trends and help MN to make data-informed decisions
+
Major trends for Minnesota plus a focus on
Minneapolis’ unique context
4 Aging & Implications
Labor Force Concerns
Growing Diversity
Migration
Aging trends
+
250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
90+
MN population by age and sex, 2015
Female
Male
What Minnesota looks like…
this year
65 years
Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections
+ How many additional “older adults”
will we gain during this decade?
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center
85 55
71 67 47
91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)
+ This decade and next: Unprecedented
increases in MN’s 65+ population
85 55
71 67 47
91
285
335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
+ QUIZ QUESTION:
What event is predicted to happen in 2020 that has never before happened in the history of our state?
A. The Vikings will win the Super Bowl B. MN will have more immigrants than
U.S.-born residents C. MN will have more 65+ residents
than school-age children, 5-17
+ For the first time in MN history:
More 65+ than school-age by 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
65+
5-17
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
+ Older adults in Minnesota by age
cohort, 2010-2050
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
85+
75-84
65-74
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
The number of older
adults in MN will
double between
2010 and 2030.
+ By 2030, more than 1 in 5 Minnesotans
will be 65+, including all Baby Boomers
13%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
% age 85+
% age 75-84
% age 65-74
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
+ The coming decades will see
dramatic growth in older cohorts
209,000
58,000
334,000
227,000
59,000
219,000
330,000
167,000
280,000 245,000 257,000
309,000 302,000
228,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+
Expected numeric change in people by age cohorts, between 2010 and given year, Minnesota
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
19,000
Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.
+
250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
90+
MN population by age and sex, 2015
Female
Male
What Minnesota looks like…
this year
65 years
Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections
+
50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Hennepin, 2015
Female
Male
What Hennepin County looks
like… this year
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections, available at mn.gov/demography/projections
+
50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Hennepin, 2025
FemaleMale
What Hennepin County will look
like… in 10 years
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections, available at mn.gov/demography/projections
+
50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Hennepin, 2035
FemaleMale
What Hennepin County will look
like… in 20 years
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections, available at mn.gov/demography/projections
+
50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Hennepin, 2045
Female
Male
What Hennepin County will look
like… in 30 years
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections, available at mn.gov/demography/projections
+ Aging: not what it used to be…
Minnesota’s older adults are healthier,
living longer, and working longer than prior
generations
Life expectancy for Minnesotans age 65 now is 20.1
more years (15.6 years in good health)
Variations across racial,
educational, other groups
Minnesota’s Boomers and
older adults volunteer in
record numbers
Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013. Current Population Survey, Volunteering Supplement.
+ Challenges related to our aging
population
Will we have the workers to form a strong, skilled, highly productive labor force as the Boomers retire — for economic growth, tax revenues for needed services, and maintaining a high quality of life in MN?
Will we have or create sufficient infrastructure for more transportation, caregiving, health care, and social support needs, as health challenges and disabilities increase, especially when children live far away?
Will we be able to finance needed services, especially long-term care? Private and public medical expenses will increase considerably.
General Fund Expenditures FY 2012-2013
Within Health & Human Services
K-12 Education
42%
Health & Human Services
31%
Higher Education
8%
All other areas 19%
Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)
Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)
MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care
Increasingly our demographics will
change the demand for services
Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
Labor force trends
+ Older adults projected to remain in
the labor force longer than before
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75+ 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Projected labor force participation
rates of older adults
Minnesota, 1980-2040
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
+ Labor force growth will continue to
slow considerably
1.9%
2.7%
1.5% 1.5%
0.9%
0.5% 0.3%
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
+ Projected growth in MN labor force
(Annual average, ages 16+)
32,000
38,000
25,000
8,000
4,000
13,000
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
+ Total 25- to 64-year-olds in MN will
dip by about 100,000 individuals
2
0
1
7
2
0
4
0
Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
+ The ratio of retirees to workers has
never come as close as it will
2010 2030
1 retiree
5 workers
1 retiree
3 workers
We need to develop, retain, and attract human
capital to compete economically
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center projections
Real GDP
Growth
Productivity Growth
Labor force participation
Working-age population
growth
+ Share of Minnesotans with 4 years
of college or more
1960 1970 1980 1990
2000
2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Years of Age
Source: Tabulated by the MN State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
+ Rising educational attainment strongly
associated with productivity growth at
the state level (1979-2012)
Source: EPI analysis of unpublished total economy productivity data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, state employment data from BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and college attainment data from the Current Population Survey basic monthly microdata.
+ MN bachelor’s degrees yield very
different employment outcomes
Minnesota Bachelor’s Degree Awards by Instructional Program
Number of bachelor degree
graduates
Annual median earnings of all
employed graduates in 2nd year after
graduation
Percent working F/T
& year-round in 2nd
Year
Median earnings of
F/T employed in
2nd Year
We
ll A
lign
ed
Engineering 1,217 $55,489 69% $59,124
Construction trades 25 $53,675 76% $55,472
Computer and information science 647 $51,990 68% $56,277
Health profession 2,577 $50,021 40% $59,646
Engineering technologies 165 $47,688 68% $51,960
Business, management, and marketing 6,272 $38,667 64% $45,289
Po
orl
y A
lign
ed
Visual and performing arts 1,562 $17,833 29% $31,039
Transportation and materials moving 51 $17,731 35% $26,447
Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies 168 $17,540 28% $30,300
History 443 $16,513 29% $34,154
Theology and religious vocations 337 $15,741 30% $33,185
Source: Steve Hine, Research Director, Labor Market Information Office, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development, via Graduate Employment Outcomes tool , online at: http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/
+ Alignment of training/education to
labor force needs is crucial
If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tells which fields of study are in demand and which are not
These data allow individuals and workforce planners to steer into areas with better opportunities
As college grads exhaust college-appropriate job options, they move down and displace lesser-educated people from their jobs. Thus, less skilled workers are left with fewer opportunities, so remain unemployed or leave the workforce altogether
Thus ALIGNMENT helps workers of all levels of education/training
Data for all fields of study are on DEED’s website at under Graduate Employment Outcomes tool: http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/
Source: Steve Hine, Research Director, Labor Market Information Office, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
+ Job outlook in MN through 2022
(from DEED)
Total jobs in MN projected to increase by 205,000 between 2012 and
2022. This is 7 times more job growth than during previous 10 years
(2002-2012), when MN added just 29,000 jobs (Great Recession)
However, by 2017-2022, labor shortages will limit job expansion in MN
The two largest major occupational groups in Minnesota —
1) professional & related occupations, and 2) service occupations —
will add the most jobs by 2022 (61% of all expected growth)
Include many occupations at the opposite ends of the educational
attainment and earnings range.
Occupations adding the most jobs: personal care aides (+ 23,000),
home health aides (+ 10,000), registered nurses (+ 9,000),
retail salespersons (+ 7,000), food prep workers and servers (+ 5,000)
Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development, Trends magazine, July 2014: http://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/review/july-2014/employment-outlook-2022.jsp
Diversity & Immigration
+
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
White (non-
Hispanic)
Of Color
Minnesota’s population by
age groups, 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates
+
Source: mncompass.org
50 years of growing diversity in our
metro, state and nation
36%
17%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Percent Of Color, 1960-2010
U.S. MN Twin Cities
+ Diversity in the metro counties
Carver, 10%
Dakota, 19%
Ramsey, 34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Percent Persons of Color
Twin Cities 7-County Metro
Scott & Anoka, 16%
Washington, 15%
Hennepin, 29%
Black, Latino and Asian
populations growing rapidly
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Populations of color, MN
American Indian
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Two or more races
Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
+ Between 2000 and 2010 most of MN’s
growth was from populations of Color
Of Color
86%
White
14%
350,000 more Minnesota residents in 2010 than in 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ MN: Largest growth among Asian,
Black and Hispanic groups by 2030
60,300
223,300
264,900 258,200
84,300 63,800
358,900
419,500
491,700
128,000
American
Indian
Asian Black Hispanic Two or More
Races
2010
2030
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.
Populations of Color > 20% in 2000
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
Populations of Color > 20% in 2008-2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
+ In Minnesota
5 in 10 Black children,
4 in 10 American Indian children
3 in 10 Hispanic children
2 in 10 Asian children, and
1 in 10 White children
LIVED IN POVERTY IN 2012
+ Which MN kids are leaving high school
in 4 years with a diploma? (2013 data)
79% of all high school students (2009: 74%) + 5 pts
49% of American Indian students (2009: 41%) + 8 pts
78% of Asian students (2009: 68%) + 10 pts
58% of Hispanic students (2009: 43%) + 15 pts
57% of Black students (2009: 43%) + 14 pts
85% of White students (2009: 82%) + 3 pts
77% of boys (2009: 72%) + 5 pts
82% of girls (2009: 77%) +5 pts
Two fastest
growing
demographic
groups in MN
+ Wide racial gaps in educational
attainment persist in Minnesota
42%
16%
4%
58%
33%
14%
White Black American Indian Asian Two or
more/Other
Hispanic/Latino
Percent of young adults (age 25-34) with
a B.A. or higher, 2010-2012
Source: Tabulated by the State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
Migration trends
+ QUIZ QUESTION:
True or False: Immigrants are more
common in MN today than they
were in 1920.
A. True
B. False
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+
Immigration is
not a new
phenomenon
in MN
Percent Foreign Born
Minnesota 1970-2009
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ Much of our state’s character is
from immigration in late 1800s
Foreign-born by country of birth, MN, 1870-2011
Source: MNCompass tabulations of IPUMS version of U.S. Census Bureau decennial censuses and 2009-2011 American Community Survey
19
00
20
00
+ Our foreign-
born
population is
becoming
increasingly
diverse
Foreign Born by World Region of
Birth
Minnesota 1950-2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oceania
NorthernAmerica
Africa
Latin America
Asia
Europe
Source: mncompass.org
+
71,000
26,300
24,400
21,200
18,500
15,000
13,600
13,400
12,500
12,400
12,200
7,600
7,300
7,200
6,700
6,300
5,100
4,700
Mexico
India
Laos
Somalia
Vietnam
Thailand
China
Korea
Ethiopia
Canada
Liberia
Germany
Kenya
El Salvador
Russia
Philippines
Colombia
Nigeria
*
MN foreign-born populations: Largest
groups by country of birth, 2010-2012
Source: MN Compass, tabulation of IPUMS version of 2010-2012 American Community Survey
* Hmong represented
*
+ Growth of immigrant communities in Twin Cities and Greater Minnesota
Twin Cities
(7-county)
303,166
27,156
Greater MN
75,317
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Foreign-born residents, 1970-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010
+
One dot =
500 foreign-
born
Pelican Rapids
(680)
Long Prairie
(639)
Willmar (1,575)
Marshall
(1,028)
Worthington
(3,396)
St. James (740)
Melrose (615)
Mankato
(2,028) Owatonna (1,170)
Northfield (1,625)
Faribault
(2,379)
Austin (2,640)
Albert Lea (596)
Winona (1,011)
Foreign-
born in
MN
2008-2012
Buffalo(703)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
Pelican
Rapids
Long
Prairie
Melrose
St. James
Worthington
Greater MN Cities
with 15%+ & 500+
foreign born
residents
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
+ Percent of MN young people who
are “children of immigrants”
Under age 20, it’s 1 in 6
Under age 5, it’s almost 1 in 5
“Children of immigrants” are
foreign-born themselves, or have
one or two foreign-born parents Source: mncompass.org
+ Net migration will become the
major driver of our state’s growth
Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.
Net migration
Natural change
(births-deaths)
+ MN domestic migration has been
negative every year of past decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2013
+ About 113,000 people leave MN
each year for other states
Only about 101,000 arrive from other states,
resulting in domestic losses
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Annual leavers from Minnesota, by age group and
student status, 2008-2012
Undergrad or grad student
Not an undergrad or grad student
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, IPUMS version of American Community Survey, 2008-2012. Tabulations by MN State Demographic Center. Findings to be published in
a forthcoming report.
+
Focus on Minneapolis
Minneapolis’
population tops
400,000 in our
2013 estimates
400,938 people +
170,195 households
+ Minneapolis’ posts greatest
population gains since 2010
1,041
1,094
1,107
1,203
1,208
1,242
1,275
1,427
1,434
1,625
1,692
1,835
1,932
2,071
2,095
2,179
2,208
2,393
3,042
3,384
3,785
4,832
11,474
18,360
Chaska
Andover
Minnetonka
Chanhassen
Coon Rapids
Apple Valley
Edina
Prior Lake
Mankato
Shakopee
Savage
Lakeville
Eden Prairie
St. Louis Park
Eagan
Maple Grove
Brooklyn Park
Plymouth
Bloomington
Rogers
Woodbury
Blaine
St. Paul
Minneapolis
Population added between 2010 and 2013, metro cities
Source: Decennial Census; Minnesota State Demographic Center, Population Estimates
+ Minneapolis’ households:
1/3rd are under 65, living alone
Under age 20,
children of Color
are the majority in
the city
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx 1 Note: Data do not exist from this dataset for same-sex couples among Minneapolis households. They are likely appearing in the “Other (non-family” category above.
Additional Years Boomers Expect to Remain in their Communities
Source: Transform 2010 Survey, MN Department of Human Services
+ 6 in 10 Mpls residents are White,
while 4 in 10 are persons of Color
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+ Minneapolis’ populations of Color
are very young
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+ Minneapolis’ populations of Color
are very young
Young adults (20s,
30s) a much
stronger presence
in the city than most
of state
Under age 20,
children of Color
are the majority in
the city
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+
Majority
race, by
block, 2010
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+ Children in
poverty,
2007-2011
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+ Adults
(age 16-64)
who are
working,
2007-2011
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+ Minneapolis’ labor force pipeline
is challenged
4-year graduation rate used to assess potential
and actual graduates
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx
+ Minneapolis: Local labor market
movement (2011)
About 66K workers both live AND work in Minneapolis
About 211K nonresidents ENTER Minneapolis to go to work
About 92K residents LEAVE Minneapolis to go to work
About 6 in 10 Minneapolis residents who are working do so outside of Minneapolis
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap. Refers to primary jobs only, in the case
of multiple jobs.
+ Take-away thoughts for all
Minnesotans
All areas of the state will feel effects of an aging population, some places
much more acutely. This will create fierce debates about where to spend
scarce public dollars, as health care and long-term care become cost-
drivers of public budgets. How we manage the transition from young to
old will be important for all our residents.
There are many healthy years ahead for many of our older adults. How
can we enlist and benefit from older adults reshaping their communities
in the years to come?
Fewer workers relative to older adults puts a premium on developing,
retaining, and attracting skilled workers — to fuel economic growth and
to pay for needed public services. Alignment of preparation is key.
Poor educational, health and economic outcomes for our fast-growing
populations of color jeopardize our economic competitiveness and
quality of life for all.
+
Explore our website at
mn.gov/demography
Locate more data, more efficiently
New interactive maps
and data visualizations
Featuring a new blog, guidance
for data users, and more
Follow us on Twitter at
@MN_StateData
MN State Demographic Center
online resources
Website: mn.gov/demography
Twitter: @MN_StateData