The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Presentation TitleSouth Florida Real Estate:

BOOM or BUST!!

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Methodology

• Various data sources are combined to produce meaningful indexes, which are then used to conduct trend analyses of various types

• Property Tax data have been merged with Spatial data

• We can also enhance these data with up-to-date Employment data and Voting Records - identifying gaps in any individual data sets

• This type of data manipulation provides information necessary to minimize uncertainty in markets

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Supply & Demand

Supply Analysis – Using property records to obtain amount of completed

units per annum – Permits pulled to obtain number of future units– Using property records in order to determine historic

trends– Pricing

Demand Analysis– Demographic analysis – Income analysis – Job market

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Sustainability Analysis

Who is moving in?– Percentage of Homestead exemptions using

property records• For example Four Seasons Condos only 4% have

homestead exemptions• In sharp contrast NEO Lofts over 30% have homestead

exemptions – Percentage of Registered voters using voting

records to determine stability of residents • Four Seasons Condos, only 6% are registered to vote in

City of Miami• NEO Lofts, 46% are registered to vote in the City of Miami

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Residential Construction, Miami-Dade

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Residential Construction, City of Miami

All Residential Construction

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Demographic Shifts

• Miami has experienced a significant increase in its population before the new housing inventory is finished

• Between 2000 and 2003 the City of Miami’s population grew from 362,470 to 382,959. This compares with a very modest 3,685 between 1990-2000.

• However, during the same period Miami’s African American population declined form 80,858 (22.3%) to 68,817 (18%). This compare with 11,000 decline in the African-American population between 1990-2000.

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Profile of Buyers: Properties over $300,000

In the City of Miami, residential real estate sales valued over $300,000 since 1990 have four types of potential buyersThose buying these properties are:

– Persons/firms choosing condominiums over the single-family structures.

– Persons/firms purchasing single-family homes but not as a primary residence

– Persons/firms receiving Homestead Exemptions on single-family structures.

– Persons/firms receiving Homestead Exemptions on purchased condominiums

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Comparison of all Miami Residential Real Estate

City of Miami Sales Amount by Buyer Type

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Year

Condo NHE

Single Family NHE

Single Family WHE

Condo WHE

NHE = No Homestead Ex.WHE = With Homestead Ex.

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Profile of Buyers Over $300,000 (Single-Family Homes)

Single Family Homes (HE) over 300,000 sold since 1990

Total Cases Median Value Mean Average

1,519 445,000 576,649

Total Cases Median Value Mean Average

843 440,000 722,564

Single Family Homes (WHE) 300,000 sold since 1990

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

Profile of Buyers over $300,000 (Condominiums)

Condominiums (HE) over 300,000 sold since 1990

Total Cases Median Value Mean Average

1,085 400,000 479,891

Total Cases Median Value Mean Average

2,783 461,000 1,052,527

Condominiums (WHE) over 300,000 sold since 1990

The Metropolitan Center at Florida International University

metropolitan.fiu.edu305-349-1251

THANK YOU!