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On September 18, 2014, Scottish voters will decide whether their country will be the first to secede from a Western-European state in recent history. After two years of campaigning it would seem that politicians, academics, and journalists would have a good understanding of the public sentiment. Using very recent data from the only large-scale, representative, and comprehensive attitudes surveys in Scotland, however, this talk will highlight where the general “wisdom” about Scots’ attitudes towards the referendum may be empirically wrong. After showing where the polls stand and what we may expect as polling day approaches, this talk will focus in particular on how the attitudes of Scottish people towards international affairs have often been misrepresented, in particular in relation to the European Union, Scotland’s role in the world, and nuclear weapons in Scotland. The talk will also identify issues that may still move people, in either direction, before casting their vote.
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Scotland on the Eve of the Independence Referendum
Washington, 03/09/2014
Dr Jan Eichhorn Chancellor’s Fellow | University of Edinburgh
*several figures reproduced from ScotCen, AQMeN and d|part materials
Background and study details The situation at the beginning of September 2014 What counts for the voters? Who votes on 18 September? Was it a good idea to reduce the voting age to 16?
Structure
The background
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
18 September 2014
Study background
SSA since 1999 (post devolution)
Face-to-face survey (CAPI)
Representative sample with 1200-1500 participants
Extensive pilot phase and cognitive interviewing
Multiple weighting procedures
2012: 40 questions 2013: 80 questions 2014: 30 questions (May – July)
Partners: John Curtice, Lindsay Paterson, Rachel Ormston
www.whatscotlandthinks.org
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSA)
Target survey of 14-17 year olds (April/May 2013 and 2014) Reason: reduction of the voting age Questions based on SSA for comparison
Pilot with 110 school students adjustment of 1/3 of questions
Consultation with MRUK to optimise telephone survey
Random-Digit-Dialling (RDD) with 1000 participants
Approval by one parent
Weighting by educational attainment of parents
Development of teaching materials: https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/Resources/IndyRef/TeachingMaterials
Attitudes of young people
The situation at the beginning of September 2014
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The state of the polls
As of: 01/09/2014 – 80 polls
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The state of the polls
As of: 01/09/2014 – 80 polls
38% 39% 39% 42% 43% 44%
62% 61% 61% 58% 57% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-May 2013 Jul-Sep 2013 Oct-Dec 2013 Jan-Mar 2014 Apr-Jun 2014 Jul-Aug 2014
YES
NO
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The state of August polls
As of: 29/08/2014 – 9 polls
47% 43% 43%
39% 42% 44%
48% 43%
47%
53% 57% 57%
61% 58% 56%
52% 57%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Yes
No
Constitutional preferences since devolution
The long-term perspective (SSA)
Independent of UK and outside the EU Independence
Independent of the UK, but inside the EU
Part of the United Kingdom, with an elected parliament with some tax raising powers
Devolution Part of the United Kingdom, with an elected parliament without tax raising powers
Part of the United Kingdom, without an elected parliament No Devolution
Constitutional preferences since devolution
The long-term perspective (SSA)
29% 31%
28% 31%
27%
34% 37%
33%
25%
30%
25%
33%
25%
31%
36%
61%
56%
63%
55% 59%
48% 48%
58%
66%
61% 64%
61% 64%
59% 56%
10% 12%
9%
14% 14% 18%
15%
10% 9% 9% 11%
6%
11% 10% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Independence Devolution No devolution
Scotland’s share of public spending
59
48 47 49
36 38 38 42 42 40
43
27
36 34 32
37 39 41 39 39
42 37
10 10 11 10 16 14 14
11 13 12 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
00 01 03 05 07 09 10 11 12 13 14
Less than fair Pretty much fair More than fair
The long-term perspective (SSA)
38 42
38
30
36
27 28
23
29 28 32 33
22
16 18
24 24 25 24 26
22 22 20
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
99 00 01 03 05 07 09 10 11 12 13 14
England's Scotland's
Who benefits more from the union?
The long-term perspective (SSA)
What counts for the voters?
“It’s the economy, stupid”
Expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
92
83
39
10
1 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
% "
YES"
vot
es
“It’s the economy, stupid”
Expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
78
46
32
10 4
73
45
20
4 3
88
62
23
7 5
88
81
35
11
3 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
% su
ppor
ting
inde
pend
ence
2011
2012
2013
2014
The ideal…
Preferred option for the governance of Scotland
2013 2014
The Scottish Parliament should decide everything for Scotland 31 41
The UK government should decide about foreign affairs and defence; the Scottish Parliament about everything else 32 29
The UK government should decide about foreign affairs and defence, taxation and welfare; the Scottish Parliament about everything else 25 22
The UK government should make all decisions for Scotland 8 6
Don‘t know/Refused 4 3
The ideal is not always acted upon
Voting intention of independence-sympathisers
55 56
11 12
34 33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014
Undecided
No
Yes
17% of all respondents
The ideal has to be considered realistic
Voting intention of independence-sympathisers by expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
35
4
40
20
12
21
4
22
0
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
YES NO/Unentschlossen
A lot better
A little better
No difference
A little worse
A lot worse
Success for “Yes” – Focus in social inequality
Expectations of about inequality after independence
46
37
22 20
11
74
53
27 23
17
78 79
35
13
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
2012
2013
2014
Scotland’s role in the world
Expectations about “Scotland’s Voice in the World”
64
37
18
9 8
64
31
17
8
1
74
47
19
12
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
A lot stronger A little stronger No difference A little weaker A lot weaker
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Expectations about the development of the economy 2. Expectations about Scotland’s voice in the world 3. Expectations about the pride of Scots 4. Expectations about the development of inequality in Scotland
5. National identity 6. Evaluation of having enough personnel to govern Scotland 7. Evaluation of the ability to bail out banks 8. Expectation about the development of own finances
9. Being male 10. Pensions as Scotland-only or UK-shared 11. Age (65+ No) 12. Political positioning (Left No)
The most important factors influencing voting intention
National identity
32% 36% 31% 32% 26% 27% 28% 23% 25% 23%
35% 30% 34% 32%
29% 31% 32% 30% 29%
26%
22% 24% 22% 21% 27% 26% 23%
30% 29% 32%
3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5%
4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014
Scottish, not British More Scottish than British Equally Scottish and BritishMore British than Scottish British, not Scottish
National identity
53%
32%
12% 11% 9%
46%
23%
11% 12%
4%
51%
34%
14%
8% 6%
60%
43%
11% 11%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Scottish, not British More Scottish thanBritish
Equally Scottishand British
More British thanScottish
British, not Scottish
2011
2012
2013
2014
Independence support by national identity
The EU debate dominated the media ...
Should/would an independent Scotland become a member of the European Union?
… but is not decisive for the vote
If Scotland became independent, should it be a member of the European Union?
YES (%) NO (%)
Definitely yes 31 36
Probably yes 34 34
Probably no 13 13
Definitely no 13 13
Don‘t know 10 10
Scots do not “love” the EU
What should Great Britannia's long term strategy towards the EU be?
10% 11% 14% 17%
36% 29%
36% 41%
21% 24%
21%
23% 14% 19%
13%
7% 9% 8% 5% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2003 2005 2014
Work for the establishment of theEuropean Government
Remain the EU, and increase the EU'scompetencies
Leave things as they are
Remain in the EU, but reduce theEU's competencies
Leave the EU
Not a vote winner either
Nuclear weapons?
Who votes on 18 September?
High voter participation is expected
SSA
2013 2014
Certain to vote (10) 62% 74%
Likely to vote (6-10) 81% 87%
For comparison
2010 Westminster 2011 Scottish Parliament
Voter turnout 64% 50%
A small advantage for “Yes”
90 84 71
95 87
76
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yes No Undecided Yes No Undecided
2013 2014
0-56-10
Voting turnout likelihood by voting intention
Activation of voters
Voting participation in 2011 Scottish Parliament elections by age group
29
50 55
71 79 81
71
50 45
29 21 19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Did not vote
Voted
Voting participation likelihood by age group
82 78 89 85
91 90
18 22 11 15
9 10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
0-5
6-10
Activation of voters
Activation of voters
Reduction in undecideds including (disproportinately for)
Persons of lower social occupational class
Persons with lower socio-economic status
Those less politically interested
Persons who do not feel close to any political party Not completely accounting for difference in undecideds
Disadvantaging of people commonly not engaged in the political process
Who are the ones still “undecided”?
SSA 2014 (May-July)
33% Undecided
Of which
28% YES leaning 29% NO leaning 42% No particular leaning
12% fully undecided
Who are the undecideds?
% Undecided 2014 (2013 Value)
Sex Women Men
33 (39) 26 (30)
Party affinity Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP None
11 (11) 27 (36) 26 (15) 29 (35) 37 (48)
Political interest
A great deal Quite a lot Some Not very much None at all
21 (20) 20 (30) 30 (36) 38 (39) 44 (47)
Knowledge of referendum
A great deal Quite a lot Some Not very much None at all
2 (19) 14 (17) 29 (32) 46 (49) 39 (48)
Influence on own life
A great deal Quite a lot Some Not very much None at all
12 (16) 22 (25) 32 (39) 41 (47) 43 (37)
Not decisive: Age, occupational social class
Was it a good idea to reduce the voting age to 16?
Under 18-year old voters
Yes No Undecided (%)
2013 23 58 19
2014 29 52 19
2013 28 72
2014 36 64
“Should Scotland be an Independent Country?”
Political interest
13 13
46
23
34 32
20
8 11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
14-17 18+
A lot
Quite a bit
Some
Not very much
Not at all
Voting turnout likelihood
2013 (%) 2014 (%)
(elibile voters only)
Very unlikely 7 6
Rather unlikely 6 6
Neither likely nor unlikely 19 15
Rather likely 26 21
Very likely 40 51
Don‘t know 2 2
The most decisive factor….
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
YES 92 65 33 3 1
NO 4 13 39 89 95
UNDECIDED 4 22 28 8 4
Expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
Differences to “adults”?
National identity
2014 (%)
Scottish, not British 15
More Scottish than British 38
Equally British and Scottish 39
More British than Scottish 5
British, not Scottish 2
British EU strategy
2014 (%)
To leave the EU 5
To remain in the EU, but to reduce the EU‘s powers 22
To leave things as they are 44
To remain in the EU, and to increase the EU‘s powers 19
To work for the establishment of a European government 4
Thank you for your attention
Your questions, please.
Dr Jan Eichhorn
[email protected] | Email @eichhorn_jan | Twitter
www.politischepartizipation.de | d|part
www.sps.ed.ac.uk/staff/social_policy/jan_eichhorn | University of Edinburgh
