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1 Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Network and its Area of influence Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations

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Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Network and its Area of influence. Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations. FERRMED STANDARDS FOR THE RAIL FREIGHT GREAT AXES. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

1

Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Networkand its Area of influence

Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations

Page 2: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

FERRMED STANDARDS FOR THE RAIL FREIGHT GREAT AXES

I. SUMMARY of the Global Study

EU Reticular and polycentric network having a great socio-economic and intermodal impact. In the main branches of great axes two parallel lines:

one giving priority or exclusiveness to freight heavy traffic another available for passengers and light freight (high sped trains).

Loading gauge UIC-C, width of the tracks UIC. Electrified lines.

Maximum slope 12‰

Trains length 1500 m. and 3.6005000 tonnes.

Locomotive and wagon new concept

Availability of a network of intermodal polyvalent and flexible

terminals

Unified labour, management and operational systems

Free Competition

30÷35% of participation of rail in long distance land transportation

Ferrmed standards simplified version

Page 3: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

A KEY STRUCTURAL GREAT AXIS NETWORK FOR WESTERN EUROPE

The rail freight network of the FERRMED Great Axis interconnects the most

important sea and inland harbour fronts; and the main

East-West axes of the EU.

Main Trunk Branches Length: 4.500 Km.

Page 4: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY

Global study will analyze different modes of freight transportation in the whole network of the FERRMED Great Axis from three points of view:

• Supply/Demand Analysis

• Technical Analysis

• Socioeconomic and environmental Analysis

The aim is:

•to match different Supply Scenarios with Demand and to balance and optimize the traffic between different modes of transportation achieving that the rail freight transportation could reach 30÷35% of the long distance land transportation rate

• to put into practice FERRMED standards improving the conditions of capacity, intermodality and interoperability of the railway in the afore mentioned network.

Totally business/market orientated with double approach, regional as well as European.

RESULT: High priority Rail Freight network (business oriented)

Page 5: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY

• WYG International (UK)• DORSH Consult (Germany)• GESTE ENGINEERING (Switzerland)• INEXIA (France)• NTU (Denmark)• PROGTRANS AG (Switzerland)• RINA INDUSTRY (Italy)• SENER (Spain)• SIGNIFICANCE BV (The Netherlands)• STRATEC (Belgium)• WSP AB (Sweden)• WYG Consulting Group (UK)

SELECTED CONSORTIUM

Page 6: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS

Page 7: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

The FERRMED “Global” Study

• Strategic Transport Planning pre-feasibility project, including:

• Railway infrastructure (new or upgrading of existing)

• Necessary investment (including Freight Terminals)

• Operational issues

• Legal and administrative framework

• Environmental concerns

• Economic profitability

• Financing options

• Market opinion (and Market Analysis)

• Four (4) main modules:

• Supply/ Demand analysis

• Technical analysis

• Cost-Benefit analysis

• Legal and administrative issues

Page 8: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

Content

1. Scope of the S&D analysis

2. Simulation model (2005)

3. Future Scenarios

4. Forecasting (2020 and 2025)

5. Conclusions of the S&D analysis

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 9: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

Framework

FER

RM

ED

Glo

bal S

tud

y

Supply/Demand

Data Collection

Technical

CBAEnvironmental

AdministrativeLegal

SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS

• FERRMED transport planning model building (base year 2005)

• Definition of 14 future scenarios (2020-2025)

• Simulation and traffic forecasting

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 10: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Trans-Tools Modelling Platform

• Developed under EU funding

• Originally for evaluation of TEN-T projects

• Models passenger and freight transport across Europe

• Database (2000)• transport variables

• socioeconomic variables

• networks

• services

• Largest European transport model

4 step transport planning model

(macroscopic)

Trans-Tools provides a simulation tool for strategic analysis

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

FreightDemand model

(generation/distribution)

Network

FreightModal Split

Logistics Model

TrafficAssignment

PassengerDemand model

(generation/distribution)

PassengerModal Split

Page 11: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Railways (freight) Mixed lines Dedicated lines

Transport Networks (II)

Page 12: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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External models for freight demand

1. Intra Red Banana and export to EU 25

2. Internal Demand for Red Banana Countries

• At country level

• 4 production sectors

• Industry

• Agriculture

• Construction

• Energy

• Eurostat data

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

3. Port Flow Distribution Model

1 2

3

Page 13: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

Port Flow Distribution Model

• 45 major European ports included

• 55% total European ports freight traffic

• 75% of intercontinental freight traffic in Europe

• Maritime and inland networks

• 4 models built in TransCAD

• containers

• Ro-Ro

• general cargo

• dry bulk

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 14: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Traffic Assignment: Rail

• Output in tonnes/day (freight) and pax/day (passengers) converted to traffic (trains/day)

• Model calibrated against observed rail traffic data for main lines

• Local traffic considered separately using different occupancy and loading factors

• Traffic split by train type

• Passenger: high speed, intercity, commuter

• Freight: block, wagon and container

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

y = 0,86x + 5,64R2 = 0,88

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Observed

Ca

lcu

late

d

y = 0.86x + 5.6R2 = 0.88

2005 Rail Freight Traffic Calibration

Mod

elled

Observed

y = 0,94x + 6,26

R2 = 0,95

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Observed

Ca

lcu

late

d

2005 Rail Passenger Traffic Calibration

y = 0.94x + 6.3R2 = 0.95

Mod

elled

Observed

Page 15: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

Freight Modal Split

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Freight Modal Split (2005)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU25 Red Banana

Road Rail IWW Sea

(Measured in tonnes-km)

Inland Freight Modal Split (2005)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU25 Red Banana

Road Rail IWW

Page 16: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Rail Freight (trains/day)

Year 2005 Traffic (III)

Page 17: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Inland Demand Forecasting

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Growth Rates Forecasting for Inland Freight Demand(Intra-Country + Intra Red Banana and Export to EU-25 models)

Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1. Intra Red Banana - export to EU25 2. Intra-Country TOT Inland

Growth Rate Forecasting for Main Socioeconomic VariablesEU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

GDP (2005 constant price) Population

Growth Rate Forecasting for Production by sector and Consumption

EU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Consumption Total Production Construction

Industry Agriculture Energy

Page 18: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

Maritime Demand Forecasting

2005 - 2025 RefGrowth Factor

Containers 262%

Ro-Ro 106%

Dry Bulk 41%

General Cargo 24%

Total 118%

• Inputs

• GDP

• Port expansion plans

• Exports / imports

• OECD industrial performance

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Growth Rate Forecasting for GDPEU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

GDP (2005 constant price)

Share between Mediterranean Ports and Others

Scenario Med. PortsOther

European ports

2005 Base year 24% 76%

2025 Reference 27% 73%

Page 19: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

Consortium

Reference Scenario Network

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

• Planned and committed projects at 3 levels

• European

• National

• Regional

• New and upgraded infrastructure

• Rail Freight (127 projects)

• Rail Passenger (140 projects)

• Road (209 projects)

• Inland waterways (11 projects)

• Terminals

Rail Freight Network (2025 Reference Scenario)

Page 20: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Reference Scenario Policies (I)

Policy ActionScenario year

Modelling

Freight intermodality and logistics

Motorways of the sea 2020 Reduce sea shipping waiting time at ports by 10%.

Intermodal loading units (ILU) and freight integrators (Marco Polo Programme)

2020

Reduce cost at freight terminals by 30% viz:- fixed inventory (Euros/ton)- handling (Euro/m3)- storage (Euro/m3)

Reduce waiting time at terminals by 10%Reduce travel time by 10%

Road pricing (Eurovignette) for freight and passenger transportation

  2020 Vehicle charges per country (€/veh-km)

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 21: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Reference Scenario Policies (II)

Policy ActionScenario

yearModelling

Liberalisation of transport markets and interoperability

Adoption of common rules in rail sector to improve interoperability and enhance quality of services

2020 Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%

Rail sector liberalisation --full separation between infrastructure and operations-

2020

Reduce rail freight travel cost by 10% (€/ton-km)

Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%

International passengers services deregulation

2020 Reduce rail passenger travel cost by 5% (€/pax-km)

Ports service liberalisation

2020 Reduce sea shipping costs (€/load) by 10 %

Airport slotsliberalisation

2020 Reduce tariffs for airport connections by 20%

Simplify Sea/IWW custom formalities

  2020 Reduce sea and IWW port waiting times by 10%

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 22: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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• Transport operating cost heavily dependant on fuel cost

• Operating cost calculation assumptions:

• Road freight transport fuel prices grow at 50% of crude oil rate

• IWW and Maritime Transport fuel prices grow at 80% of crude oil rate

• Rail electric power price grows at 30% of average energy rate

• Assumptions for crude oil and energy prices growth:

• Base year for prices: 2000 (Trans-Tools)• Future trends: World Bank (2008) and

STEPs project (EC, 2006)

Total freight transport cost growth 2000-2025

Road 18.6%

Rail 1.7%

IWW 21.5%

Sea 16.9%

Freight Model Input

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Transport Costs

Page 23: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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FERRMED StandardFERRMED Scenarios

1st RunFERRMED Scenarios

2nd Run

1. Signalling Included Included

2. Train Length Included Included

3. New terminals and expansion Included Included

4. Maximum Axle Load Included New lines

5. Width of the tracks UIC 1435 mm Included Included

6. Liberalisation of the rail freight market Included (Ref. Scenario) Included (Ref. Scenario)

7. Reliability and Quality Included Included

8. Loading gauge UIC C As in Reference scenario For Upgraded and New lines

9. Two Parallel lines in core FERRMED rail network

Included when justified Included when justified

10. Increase of Freight train priority As in Reference scenario Selected lines

11. Slope limitation to 12 ‰ As in Reference scenarioIncluded when needed to solve

slope bottlenecks

12. Homogenisation of Power type As in Reference scenario Included

13. Renewal of Rolling stock Indirect Effect Indirect effect

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

FERRMED Standards Implementation

Page 24: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Inland Freight Modal Split

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

(Measured in tonnes-km)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW

IWW 7,8% 8,5% 8,7% 8,7% 8,5% 8,6% 8,5%

Rail 14,0% 14,2% 14,9% 16,1% 17,1% 17,1% 18,8%

Road 78,2% 77,3% 76,4% 75,2% 74,4% 74,3% 72,7%

1. 2005 Base Year3. 2020 Reference

2nd run 7. 2025 Reference

2nd run9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2 nd run11. 2025 Full

FERRMED 2nd run

12. 2025 Southern Ports enhancement

27% to 35%

13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)

Page 25: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>500 km)

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW

IWW 19,6% 20,2% 19,8% 20,2% 19,9% 19,6% 19,9% 19,8%

Rail 20,5% 20,7% 22,6% 21,4% 23,0% 24,3% 24,6% 35,0%

Road 59,9% 59,1% 57,7% 58,4% 57,1% 56,1% 55,6% 45,1%

1. 2005 Base Year

3. 2020 Reference 2nd

Run

5. 2020 Medium

FERRMED

7. 2025 Reference 2nd

run

9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2

nd run

12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement

13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)

(Measured in tonnes-km)

Page 26: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>1000 km)

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

(Measured in tonnes-km)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Road Rail IWW

IWW 14,4% 15,1% 14,7% 15,5% 15,1% 14,7% 15,1% 14,7%

Rail 24,1% 24,7% 26,4% 25,2% 26,4% 28,2% 28,9% 39,8%

Road 61,5% 60,2% 58,9% 59,3% 58,5% 57,1% 56,0% 45,4%

1. 2005 Base Year

3. 2020 Reference 2nd

Run

5. 2020 Medium

FERRMED 2nd

7. 2025 Reference 2nd

run

9. 2025 Medium

FERRMED 2

11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2

nd run

12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement

13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)

Page 27: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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2025 REFERENCE Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 28: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

2025 FULL FERRMED Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)

Page 29: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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FERRMED: Reversing the trend (I)

Inland Freight Transport Performance 1995 - 2005: EUROSTAT PocketBook 2005 - 2025: FERRMED Forecasting

25814.2%

22115.5%

45314.9%

49116.1%

57418.8%

52417.1%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30001

99

5

20

00

20

05

(1)

20

05

Ba

se

Ye

ar

(3)

20

20

Re

fere

nc

e 2

nd

Ru

n

(7)

20

25

Re

f. 2

nd

ru

nB

ott

len

ec

ks

so

luti

on

(1)

20

05

Ba

se

Ye

ar

(5)

20

20

Me

diu

m F

ER

RM

ED

2n

d r

un

(9)

20

25

Me

diu

m F

ER

RM

ED

2n

d r

un

(1)

20

05

Ba

se

Ye

ar

(11

) 2

02

5 F

ull

FE

RR

ME

D 2

nd

run

(12

) 2

02

5 S

ou

the

rn p

ort

se

nh

an

ce

me

nt

27

% t

o 3

5%

(13

) 2

02

5 O

bj.

ac

hie

ve

d:

RA

IL 3

5%

(>

50

0K

m)

Bil

lio

n (

109 )

to

nn

es

-km

Rail Ref.

IWW Ref.

Total

Total Ref.

Total MEDIUM

Total FULL

RoadRailIWW

Road Ref.

Road MEDIUMRail MEDIUMIWW MEDIUM

Road FULLRail FULLIWW FULL

SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS

Page 30: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Page 31: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Contents

• FERRMED Rail Network Definition

• FERRMED Standards

• Bottleneck analysis

• Terminals

• Costs

• Recommendations

• Conclusion

Page 32: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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FERRMED Rail Network Definition

• Started with FERRMED Association Map

• Line by line analysis

- FERRMED Standards

- Expert judgement

• Optimal freight train routes selected

• Lines not meeting criteria not retained

Page 33: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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The FERRMED Rail Network (2005)

Page 34: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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The FERRMED Rail Network (2025)

Page 35: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Bottleneck Analysis

• Theoretical capacity of each line calculated

• Capacity compared with train traffic

• Residual capacity determined

• Bottlenecks identified based on :- residual capacity

- relative capacity (track occupation)

- variation of traffic intensity

Page 36: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Bottleneck LocationsReference Scenario 2025

Page 37: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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The 2005 Full FERRMED Rail Network

Page 38: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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The 2025 Full FERRMED Rail Network

Page 39: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Evolution of the network

Track gauge

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005Reference

2025Reference

Full

Scenario

ShareStandard gauge

Broad gauge

2025

Full

Page 40: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Evolution of the network

Infrastructure signalling

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 Reference 2025 Reference Full

Scenario

Share

without block system

manual block system

automatic block system

ERTMS

2025 Full

Page 41: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Evolution of the network

Max Train Length

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%

60%70%

80%90%

2005Reference

2025Reference

Full

Scenario

Share

< 500m

≥ 500 and < 750m

≥ 750 and < 1000m

≥ 1000 and ≤ 1500m

2025

Full

Page 42: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Costs up to 2025 by scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

MEDIUM FULL FULL +

Scenarios

Co

sts

(€ b

n)

Ports & Terminals

Automatic coupling

ERTMS Implementation

Ferrmed Standards

Missing links

Bottleneck solutions + By-passes

€ 131 bn

€ 178 bn

€ 211 bn

2025

Page 43: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Costs up to 2025 by scenario

Page 44: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Recommendations

2025 Full scenario

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 1 2 3 4

Priority

Investment costs (€ bn)

Axle load

ElectrificationElectric reinforcement

By-passes

ERTMS

Other missing links

Train Length

Ports and Terminals

Noise protection barriers

Track gauge

Automatic coupler

Loading gauge

Bottlenecks solving

Tarragona-Castelló

Page 45: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Recommendations

• To change the width of the tracks in Spain from the French border.

• To develop the automatic coupler (tractive and compression efforts with wire data transmission)

• To increase the freight train length : 1000 m

1500 m

• To solve the detected bottlenecks and to build the Tarragona – Castelló new line.

• To construct by-passes of major conurbations

Page 46: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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• High performance parallel lines and almost dedicated lines according to passenger or freight traffic

• Autocoupler & long trains with radio or wire data transmission

• A rail network available for freight transportation 24 h / 24 and 7 days / 7

• Unified management and monitoring systems (ERTMS)

Outcomes

Page 47: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS

Page 48: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Introduction

• Transport• critical to our economy but;

• environmentally impacting

 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)* by Sector, EU-27 (2006)

Energy Industrie

s30.9%

Transport

19.3%

Services, etc.3.6%

Households

9.4%

Industry21.0%

Other ***15.7%

Source: DG TREN Pocketbook 2009

Page 49: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Emissions

• High level impact on emission levels analysed within the CBA

• Emission factors derived from TREMOVE transport & emissions simulation model

• Reduction in pollutants and CO2 assessed for Medium, Full / Full+

FERRMED Medium Scenario

FERRMED Full Scenario

FERRMED Full+ Scenario

NoX 805,182 1,004,694 1,004,694

NMVOC 5,794 8,281 8,281

SO2 199,841 242,682 242,682

PM 27,558 35,013 35,013

CO2 128,099,118 145,410,934 145,410,934

Reduction in Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016 – 2045 (tonnes)

Page 50: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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CO2 Savings

• Modest savings achieved in CO2 against trend of rising transport demand

• Significant contribution towards Climate and Energy Package target (10% reduction)

CO2 Savings at Strategic Years

2020 2025 2035 2045

Full / Full+ FERRMED Scenario. CO2 reduction (Mt/yr)

3.173 4.857 5.361 6.678

as % of Reference Scenario CO2 emissions

0.408% 0.591% 0.623% 0.743%

Page 51: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Page 52: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Components of Socio-Economic Analysis

1.Cost-Benefit Analysis

2.Financial Analysis

3.Multi-Critera Analysis

Page 53: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Socio-economic Analysis: Part 1

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Page 54: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Objectives of the CBA

• Identification and quantification of all possible monetarisable economic, social and environmental impacts as economic costs or benefits (cost savings)

• Assessing project benefits against infrastructure investment and operating costs

• CBA methodology for strategic assessment

Page 55: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Origin of benefits by scenario and type

Benefits: FFS / RS & WFFS / RS

from reduced VOC

39.1%

from reduced accidents

0.5%

from reduced pollutant

emissions2.5%

from reduced GHG emissions

0.4%

from reduced travel / transport

time57.4%

Benefits: MFS / RS

from reduced VOC

72.6%

from reduced travel / transport

time20.0%

from reduced GHG emissions

1.1%

from reduced pollutant

emissions4.8%from reduced

accidents 1.5%

Medium FS

Full FS

Social discount rate:3.5%

Page 56: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Origin of benefits by scenario and mode

162

-5

23

303

6 6

-49

4

237

164

-5

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

railpassenger

rail freight roadpassenger

road freight IWW SSS

[bn

EU

R]

2005 p

rices

MFS FFS / F+FS

Page 57: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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CBA results

Net Present Value(NPV)

0

10'000

20'000

30'000

40'000

50'000

60'000

70'000

80'000

90'000

100'000

MFS FFS F+FS

[m E

UR

]

Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

MFS FFS F+FS

[%]

Benefit/Cost Ratio(BCR)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

MFS FFS F+FS

[-]

Scenario

Net Present Value –

NPV (million Euro)

Economic Internal Rate of Return – EIRR (%)

Benefit / Cost Ratio –

BCR

MFS 10,780 4.97 1.155

FFS 93,783 11.09 1.993

F+FS 76,453 8.85 1.684

(*) social discount rate: 3.5%

Page 58: Presentation of General Content,  Conclusions and Recommendations

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Socio-economic Analysis: Part 2

Financial Analysis

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Objectives of Financial Analysis

• Suitable financing sources for the different investment types and scenarios

• Public versus private funding• Cash-flow calculation 2013-2025• Break-down of total funding requirements

of each FERRMED Scenario by main financing sources 2013-2025

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Possible financing sources

Source

Railway infra-

structure upgrad. (incl. noise prot. walls)

ERTMS Rolling

stock (couplg.

+Spanish UIC g. roll.

st.)

New rail

lines

Ports & ter-

mi-nals

Electr. power upgra-ding

Bottle-neck

investments

By-pas-

ses

National public entities

70 50 70 10 10 70 70 40

EC 15 25 15 10 10 15 30 15 EIB 15 25 15 10 10 15 0 15 Private PPP inv.

- - - 50 50 - - 20

Comm. banks

- - - 20 20 - - 10

Σ 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

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Conclusions

There is in Europe a widespread preparedness to finance rail projects to solve the

increasing environmental and capacity problems of road transport .

European rail corridors are co-financed by the EC only if the new European rules for

rail transport are met. The investments foreseen for the FERRMED Great Axis Rail

Network meet the funding rules of the EC.

More than 50 % of the funds for the FERRMED Great Axis Rail Network) must come

from national public sources.

Up to 30 % of the total funds required can be expected to be co-financed by the EC

and EIB.

Financial contributions from private stakeholders should be taken into account based

on pilot models of PPP rail projects in Europe.

New financing instruments have been created on the EU level as a major step to

support PPP projects.

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GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

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Rail Freight Traffic

Growth (tonnes-km) between:

Road Rail IWW SeaTotal All

Total Inland

2020 Reference/ 2020 Medium

-1.8% 10.7% -0,5% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

2025 Reference/ 2025 Medium

-1.4% 8.4% -1,0% -0.5% 0.1% -0.1%

2025 Reference/ 2025 Full

-2.0% 15.6% -1,8% -0.8% 0.7% 0.2%

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Proposed Investments(Full FERRMED Scenario)

• Bottlenecks solutions: 17.1 bn €

• New lines: 16.4 bn €

• City by-passes: 12.8 bn €

• FERRMED standards: 56 bn €

• ERTMS: 14.3 bn €

• Automatic couplers: 7.4 bn €

• Rolling stock: 630 mil €

• Electric reinforcement: 724 mil €

• Terminals (Ports + Inland): 51,7 bn €

• Total: 177.7 bn €

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Priorities

• Priority 1 measures:

• Standard track gauge / Taragona-Castello new line / Solve

bottlenecks (capacity) / Loading gauge (UIC B1 in existing, UIC

C in new) / Automatic coupling system / Noise barriers

• Priority 2 measures:

• Reinforcement of electricity power / ERTMS / City by-passes /

Missing links / Freight train length increase / Terminals

• Priority 3 measures:

• Electrification of remaining lines / Axle load increase

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Cost – Benefit Analysis & Financing

• Full FERMED Scenario:

• EIRR: 11.09%

• BCR: 1.99

• The next step should be to establish a programme of priority projects.

• Individual feasibility studies (project by project) are anyhow a prerequisite for financing of specific projects.

• Discussions with International Financing Institutions should start in short-term.

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Legal – Policy Assessment

• Lack of network capacity for rail freight: Regulatory and administrative reforms are needed.

• Parallel lines for freight and passenger rail traffic.

• Priority to city by-passes.

• Set more fair priority rules.

• Develop efficient and unified charging structure.

• Achieve full liberalization.

• Achieve free competition.

• Establish freight “preference” corridors.

• Management at corridor level should be examined.

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FERRMED PROPOSALS

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MAIN GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

The application of FERRMED Standards is a key issue in order to reverse the decreasing share of Railway in land transportation.

The proposed investment and actions in the FERRMED Great Axis Rail Freight Core Network and main feeders, are feasible and sustainable from economic, financial, and environmental perspective.

As a consequence, FERRMED Association proposes the adoption of FERRMED Great Axis Core Network and main feeders as a part of the EU high priority Rail Freight Network, recommending the approval as Priority Projects of all actions to be developed in the Core Network

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CORE NETWORK

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MAIN GENERAL ACTIONS (I)

Gradual Implementation of FERRMED Standards

To built by-passes in big cities

To reinforce border crossings in the Alps and in the Pyrenees (new crossing line in the Alps and change track width in conventional existing lines in the Pyrenees)

To upgrade Spanish main corridors to UIC width (1435mm), starting by the Mediterranean one

To consolidate an intermodal and polyvalent public/private network of terminals with appropriate rail links

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MAIN GENERAL ACTIONS (II)

To enhance the capacity of all main European Ports improving the rail links with their hinterlands

Policy and management harmonisation

Liberalization and free competition

To build new lines in the FERRMED Core Network, in the corridors where double line or interconnections links do not exist (Like Tarragona-Castelló and Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras).

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FERRMED PROPOSALS

These main general Conclusions and Actions derived from the Global Study, allows FERRMED Association to make a set of 100 proposals in order to get a suitable Rail freight Network in the “Red Banana” area.

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ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (V)

FRANCE and SOUTH-EAST UNITED KINGDOMCore Network lines: London – Calais/Dunkerque – Lille – Metz – Dijon; Le Havre – Rouen

– Amiens – Reims – Dijon; Le Havre – Rouen – Paris – Dijon; Luxembourg/Apach – Metz – Nancy – Dijon – Lyon – Valence – Avignon /Marseille – Nimes – Montpellier –

Perpignan – Girona/Barcelona; Lyon – Torino/Milano

To implement FERRMED Standards and to enlarge or to build high capacity Terminals

By passes in Lille, Paris (Rocade Nord) and Lyon

New mixed lines Nimes-Montpellier-Perpignan and Lyon-Torino

To imporve the access to Le Havre and Marseille ports

To refublish the line Marseille- Montgenèvre (long term)

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ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (VII)

SPAIN AND NORTH OF AFRICACore Network lines:

Perpignan-Girona-Barcelona-Castelló-València-Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras; Lorca-Granada-Antequera-Bobadilla-Algeciras

To change the widht of the tracks in all Mediterranean Corridor in the existing conventional line

New HSL Tarragona-Castelló, València -Alacant-Murcia-Almeria (keeping the existing line Murcia-Lorca-Almendricos-Aguilas as a separate line from the new one).

Double gauge in surroundings of huge cities

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ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (VIII)

Great by-pass Girona Nord-Tarragona Sud

Great by-pass Castelló-Xativa By-passes in Alacant, Murcia, Málaga,

etc. New mixed line Almería- Motril-Málaga-

Algeciras (HSL+freight) To electrify and to put double track in

the line Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Aguilas

To refurbish and to change the widht of the tracks in the line Sevilla/Algeciras-Bobadilla/Antequera-Granada-Almería

To introduce FERRMED Standards and to enlarge/to built high capacity Terminals

Study more suitable Gibraltar crossing

SPAIN AND NORTH OF AFRICACore Network lines:

Perpignan-Girona-Barcelona-Castelló-València-Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras; Lorca-Granada-Antequera-Bobadilla-Algeciras

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ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (IX)

Lines to be declared as EU Priority ProjectsFERRMED PROPOSAL

Country Lines to be declared as EU Priority Projects

Germany Line Bremen-Münster-Duisburg (to be included as an extension of corridor number 20).

Line Koblenz-Luxembourg/Apach

France Line Calais/Dunkerque-Lille-Metz-Dijon

Line Le Havre-Amiens-Reims-Dijon

Spain (Medite-rranean corridor)

Line Tarragona-Castelló-València-Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras

Line Lorca-Granada-Antequera

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Muchas gracias por su atención

FERRMED ASBL