Presentation of CRITECH Action – November 2007 1 Early Warning Systems State of Play A.Annunziato, D. Al-Khudhairy Joint Research Centre, European Commission

Presentation of CRITECH Action – November 2007 1

Early Warning Systems State of Play

A. Annunziato, D. Al-KhudhairyJoint Research Centre, European Commission

Banda Aceh, Indonesia, 5-6 December 2008

ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM

The Eighth Inter-Sessional Meeting on Disaster Relief


The Disaster Cycle – Focus on Recovery

• Classical Phases:

– Mitigation - Minimizing effects of potential disaster.• Examples: building codes and zoning; vulnerability

analyses; public education, and awareness raising.

– Preparedness - Planning how to respond.• Examples: preparedness plans; emergency

exercises/training; warning systems.

– Response - Efforts to minimize impacts of a disaster.

• Examples: search and rescue; emergency relief .

– Recovery - Returning the community to normal.• Examples: temporary housing; grants; medical care.

includes an important component on Alerting, early warning.

ResponsePreparedness

Mitigation Recovery


• Early warning does not only imply alerting before an event happens, which is hazard dependent and is often impossible. More and more, it means sudden alerting for a quick response and recovery

• The period after an event and before the arrival of relief is a critical one in which – Other human lives may be lost– Risk for secondary effects (epidemics) is high– Perceived by survivors as highly dangerous

Event Alerting Emergency Rescue Relief and

Rehabilitation

The Importance of Timely Early Warning

Response And Recovery


• Very often EWS are dormant, not visible but have to responsive when needed (ex. ABS in your car)

• This is only the last chain of a long process:– Monitoring– Analysis – Evaluation and identification– Alerting

• The number of Natural Disasters Alerting systems is increasing and they are becoming increasingly sophisticated:

– Very important systems for earthquakes– Hurricanes or Typhoons prediction– Volcanoes monitoring– Landslides or snowfall– Floods prediction

• The complexity of the system is hazard dependent – Tsunami require the most highly technological response as it

may interact with the event itself– Tropical cyclones systems can also be effective in saving lives

but the lead time is greater

Key Early Warning components

EarthquakesTsunamisTropical CyclonesVolcanoes


• The risk is that the amount of information is so big that it becomes difficult to judge if an event is a real disaster or not

– If you have one clock you know the time; if you have two or more clocks you no longer know which clock is correct since each one is likely to give you a different time

• Important factors to consider– Reliability of the information source– Velocity in analysing and disseminating the information– The form of the reports has to be understandable by who has to take decisions– The alert must reach the people at risk on time– Collaboration and information sharing for a better situation awareness

• Issues for discussion– Who has the responsibility to alert Who ?– Who should be the recipients of the alert messages ?– Automatic versus manual alerting ?


Tsunami EWS: UNESCO

• When major earthquakes occuring in the Pacific Rim have magnitudes larger than Mag. 6.5 24h Tsunami Warning Center send out different type of alerting messages

– Tsunami Information Bulletin - At this time, though a threat exists, there is no evidence that a tsunami is making its way across the Pacific.

– Tsunami Warning - PTWC finds conditions serious enough to issue immediate concern to parts of the Pacific. The message will include approximate arrival times for various parts of the Pacific.

– Tsunami Watch - PTWC has determined the earthquake may very likely have created a tsunami and is advising parties to be alert as PTWC awaits tide data to support tsunami generation.

Established in 1965Sends out telex, fax, emailInterim Indian Ocean EWS


Japan Meterological Agency


Tsunami Scenario DB for Japan


National Early Warning Systems

• GITEWS: German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

• Inaugurated 11 November 2008


Seismic Monitoring BuoysTide Gauges Ocean Bottom Units EO DataGPS

-Local Authorities-People at Risk

Systems

Observations

Assessment and Decision Support

The Concept: Tsunami Early Warning & Mitigation Center

-Other national andinternational recipients

Simulation


Decision Support System


Portugal TEWS

• Portugal was hit by a devastating earthquake and consequent Tsunami in 1755 that completely destroyed Lisbon; the tsunami ravaged the coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco;

• Portuguese Institute of Meteorology received the task from Portuguese Government to establish a National Tsunami Early Warning System, first version ready by end of 2008

• JRC is supporting Portugal for the establishment of the National Tsunami Warning System,– Tsunami Scenario Development– Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT)

• Due to Portugal geographical location the installation of a national TWS is a step forward to implement a RTWS for the Gulf of Cadiz and North East Atlantic area,


Portugal TEWS

Seismic Network Tide gauge Network Scenario Database

Institute of Meteorology: Signals analysis and messages creation

Portuguese Civil Protection Alerting

TAT: Tsunami Analysis Tool


TAT to fuse information

Time of the event

Current time

Grid calculation

Online Calculation

Elapsed time from event

Buoys water level

JRC Tsunami scenario database MOST database from NOAA

240 sea level measurements around the world


49 DART buoys250 tidal measurem.

It is very important to get agreement with as much as possible sea level data providers in order to reduce the delay

Example Cascais data: Constant delay from data provider 3 minutesMinimum delay from GLOSS data 7 minutes, updated every hour


Messages creation

On line events Analysis

Alerting Msg Generation3

21


The GDACS system: alerting the humanitarian community

• Purpose– Real-time alerting of humanitarian disasters world wide– Sharing disaster related information

• Partners– UN-OCHA– DG-ECHO, DG-ENV, DG-RELEX

• Users– Humanitarian aid donors: ECHO, USAID, national governments– International organisations: UN OCHA, IFRC– Humanitarian implementers: NGOs, national governments

• Operational since 2003– About 5000 users receive GDACS alerts worldwide– Completely free


Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System

Near real time monitoring of natural disasters

http://www.gdacs.org

earthquakes,

hurricanes,

volcanoes

floods


24 Oct 2007Mag. 6.8, Indonesia

Lat=-3.83, Lon=100.9, Mag=6.8

Call from Early Warning Systems: GDACS


Soon after 1 min the height calculation a web page is already available with the estimated height at each location.


Last Mile Research: Tsunami Alerting Device

Tsunami Alert

Wave expected at

15:05

Tsunami Alert

Wave expected at

17:35

New event

GRID:

When & Where

GSM Modem

SMS SMSA device to complete the alerting chain, from the sensors to the people


Last Mile Research: Tsunami Alerting Device

• A first prototype is now ready• Characteristics:

– Answers to SMS commands– LAN and COM port available– Stores temperature, pressure and

sea level from a tidal wave– GPS

• Alarm and loudspeaker• Dimensions 1 m x 0.70 m• Testing phase to setup the

command programme foreseen in Portugal in 2009

GPS antenna

GSM antenna

TemperaturePressure

GSM SIMLAN and COM ports

Tidal Sea level


A web status page will allow to know position and displayed current messages of each device

A first prototype will be installed for testing in Cascais (PT) at beginning of 2009


Conclusions (1/2)

• State of the art of TEWS demands highly technological and very expensive systems, which must be efficient and reliable if they are to be effective in preparedness and response

• Ocean wide, National or Local EWS need to improve or maintain efficiency• reduce delays in chain detection>analysis>alerting • reduction of false alerts• Reach the right people• Complete the last mile: i.e. timely transmit alerting messages to appropriate stake-

holders

• International cooperation is essential– One single nation cannot cope with such a complex arrangement:

• “My seismic network” will save life in your country or• “Your sea level measurements” can confirm alerting to my country

– Agreements with data providers can notably reduce un-necessary delays


Conclusions (2/2)

• Modelling networks can enhance the understanding of the phenomena and help to build and retain capacity– Exercises and round-robin activities to test analytical capabilities– Exchange of information on detailed bathymetry– Workshops and training

• Sustainability : – can a system be kept efficient and reliable for years w/o being used or

barely used?

Documents

Presentation of CRITECH Action – November 2007 1 Early Warning Systems State of Play A.Annunziato, D. Al-Khudhairy Joint Research Centre, European Commission