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[Presentation Heading]
[Presenter’s name and date] SEQ Residential Market
Gavin Hulcombe 1 November 2018
1980 2018
South Brisbane (Expo)
1988
2000 1990
Lead Time to Maturity
Springfield
1997
North Lakes
1998
Newstead
(Gasworks) 2008
Bowen Hills
2009
Hamilton (Portside)
2008
Maroochydore
Town Centre
2013
Source: Google Images, Herron Todd White
Migration Headlines
Source: The Courier Mail
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ne
t In
ters
tate
Mig
rati
on
(p
ers
on
s)
Nu
mb
er
of
Job
s C
rea
ted
Year
SEQ Total Job Creation Net Interstate Migration
Total Number Employed
up by 4.5% or 75,500 jobs
N.B. Average jobs created 12 Months to August each year
SEQ Total Job Creation & Net Interstate Migration
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ho
me
Lo
an
Aff
ord
ab
ilit
y I
nd
ica
tor
Quarters
QLD NSW VIC
QLD has returned to 2003 levels
QLD, NSW & VIC Affordability
Source: REIA
HLAI = Median Annual Family Income / Average Loan Repayments
Average House Price Growth Since 2000
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
% C
ha
ng
e i
n A
vera
ge
Ho
use
Pri
ce
s
Years
Gold Coast
Sunshine Coast
Brisbane
Average House Price Growth Since 2000
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
% C
ha
ng
e i
n A
vera
ge
Ho
use
Pri
ce
s
Years
Gold Coast
Sunshine Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
Melbourne
Tighter Credit
Affordability Rivalling 2003 levels
?
Migration Interstate migration = 2007 levels
Tail Winds vs Head Winds
Employment Strong job growth in the last 12 months
Englobo Land Market Source: Google Images
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p
Nu
mb
er
of
La
nd
Sa
les
Financial Years
Brisbane Region Gold Coast Sunshine Coast
SEQ Land Sales Volumes
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Herron Todd White Research
p = projected
Brisbane Land Sales
at circa 2007/2008
levels
2018
projection
Western Corridor Sales Volumes
Source: Herron Todd White Research
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018p
Nu
mb
er
of
Lo
ts S
old
Year
Collingwood Park / Redbank Plains Ripley Valley / Deebing Heights Springfield / Augustine Heights / Bellbird Park
p = projected
432 sqm
$214,285
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Ave
rag
e S
ale
Pri
ce
($
)
Ave
rag
e L
ot
Siz
e (
sq
m)
Year
Brisbane - Western Corridor
Average Lot Size Average Sales Price
Lots Getting Smaller, Sale Prices Rising
Source: Herron Todd White Research
Sunshine Coast Residential Lot Sizes
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f To
tal
Lo
ts S
ale
s
Financial Years
600-<700
450-<600
300-<450
<300
Freehold Terrace Lots vs Townhouses
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Sekisui House, Herron Todd White
Freehold Terrace Lots
3 Bed / 2 Bath / 1 Car
Land Area: 179 sqm
Floor Area: 148 sqm
Body Corporate Townhouses
3 Bed / 2 Bath / 1 Car
Land Area: 176 sqm
Floor Area: 143 sqm
Source: Pointcorp Developments
Residential Unit Market
Inner Brisbane Off-The-Plan Unit Sale Volumes
Source: Place Advisory
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Nu
mb
er
of
Re
po
rte
d S
ale
s
Quarters
Brisbane CBD Northside Hamilton Southside Inner West
Units Sold vs Units Held
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Herron Todd White Research
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Tota
l N
um
be
r o
f U
nit
s
Quarters
Units Held
Units Sold
Bowen Hills
Source: Realestate.com.au
Supply Returning to Balance
*Unit projects under construction or about to commence construction as at 7 September 2018 YTD
Suburb
Total Existing Units
(As at Mar 2014)
Proposed Supply
(As at Sept 2015)
Units Completed
(Apr 2014 - 2018)
Units to Complete
(Balance of 2018)
Units to Complete
(2019-2020)
Inner Brisbane 30,433 47,220 18,189 1,740 5,366
Brisbane CBD 8,053 6,409 1,126 530 967
Fortitude Valley 2,863 6,660 2,235 267 557
Newstead/Teneriffe 3,424 5,177 3,308 - 852
Bowen Hills 1,442 5,555 765 - -
Hamilton 2,232 3,827 1,245 95 332
South Brisbane 3,041 6,236 3,928 253 815
West End 1,991 5,923 2,265 342 425
Woolloongabba 938 4,040 1,103 193 308
Kangaroo Point 3,736 1,680 985 - 440
Greenslopes 2,064 - 353 60 114
Milton 649 1,713 876 - 526
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Herron Todd White Research, Cordells
Only 42%
constructed
Who were the Buyers?
Source: Herron Todd White Research
19%
27%
1%
42%
11%
Owner Occupier
Qld Investor
Self-managed Super Fund
Interstate Investor
International Investor
17%
2%
43%
15%
23%
Cash
Credit Union
Major Bank
Non Major Bank
Non Bank
Back End Financing
Source: Herron Todd White Research
Source: Google Images
Gold Coast Market
Unit Projects
Suburb Currently Marketed
‘Off-The-Plan’
Currently Under
Construction Total Units Approved
Total Gold Coast 5,666 3,759 5,170
Broadbeach 1,616 1,047 793
Mermaid Beach 820 32 937
Surfers Paradise 3,172 2,679 2,856
Main Beach 58 - 584
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Herron Todd White Research, Cordells
Gold Coast Prestige Unit Sales
‘Xanadu’
Unit 150, 59 Pacific St,
Main Beach
Jan 2018 - $5,300,000
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Google Images
‘Chevron Renaissance’
Unit 3250, 23 Ferny Ave,
Surfers Paradise
Jan 2018 - $9,500,000
‘Hedges 252’
Unit 702, 252 Hedges Ave,
Mermaid Beach
May 2018 - $5,250,000
Source: Google Images
Sunshine Coast Market
Sunshine Coast Unit Market
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Herron Todd White Research
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nu
mb
er
of
Sa
les
Years
Resale
New
Sunshine Coast Prestige Unit Sales
‘Sea Pearl’
Unit 1001, 20 First Ave,
Mooloolaba
July 2018 - $4,400,000
274 sqm internal
$16,058/sqm
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Google Images
‘Tangalooma’
Unit 3, 63 River Espl,
Mooloolaba
Feb 2018 - $5,580,000
536 sqm internal + Marina Berth
$10,037/sqm
‘Tangalooma’
Unit 4, 63 River Espl,
Mooloolaba
Jan 2018 - $5,580,000
543 sqm internal + Marina Berth
$10,071/sqm
Source: Realestate.com.au
Housing Market
$989,984
$806,640
$679,137
$538,009
$508,081
$477,538
$466,813
$459,557
$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000
Sydney
Melbourne
Canberra
Brisbane
Darwin
Perth
Adelaide
Hobart
Median House Price
Ca
pit
al
Cit
ies
Median House Price
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data
Brisbane Melbourne Sydney
7 Cypress Dr,
Ashgrove
Jun 2018 - $1,150,000
4 bed / 2 bath / 1 car
607 sqm land area
1 Type St,
Richmond
U/C Sep 2018 - $1,650,000
4 bed / 2 bath / 1 car
227 sqm land area
162 Nelson St,
Annandale
Sep 2018 - $2,870,000
4 bed / 2 bath / 2 car
323 sqm land area
Affordability 5km from Capital City CBD
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data
Brisbane Melbourne Sydney
49 Bayberry Cres,
Warner
Jun 2018 - $460,000
4 bed / 2 bath / 2 car
674 sqm land area
2 Denison Pl,
Roxburgh Park
U/C Aug 2018 - $525,000
4 bed / 2 bath / 2 car
619 sqm land area
12 Oak St,
Parramatta
U/C Sep 2018 - $865,000
4 bed / 1 bath / 1 car
468 sqm land area
Affordability 20km from Capital City CBD
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data
5km 15km 25km
Address Sale Price Sale Date Rental
(per week)
Statutory
Charges
(per annum)
Gross Yield % Net Yield %
41 Exeter St,
West End $930,000 Aug 2018 $490 $11,620 2.74% 1.49%
13 Casula St,
Arana Hills $524,500 Jun 2018 $420 $3,224 4.16% 3.55%
19 Carlotta St,
Slacks Creek $303,000 U/C Oct 2018 $340 $2,500 5.83% 5.00%
Yields in radial km from Brisbane CBD
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Herron Todd White, Realestate.com.au
9-11 Hedges Ave, Mermaid Beach
Aug 2018 - $12,000,000
5 bed / 6 bath / 8 car
919 sqm living area
Gold Coast Prestige Beachfront Sales
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Realestate.com.au
103-105 Hedges Ave, Mermaid Beach
Mar 2018 - $11,600,000
3 bed / 3 bath / 6 car
Previously sold for $6,900,000 in 2006
Sunshine Coast Prestige House Sales
46 Seaview Tce, Sunshine Beach
Jan 2018 - $15,200,000
Approx. 1000 sqm living area
581 days on-the-market
Originally listed for offers over $18,000,000
Source: CoreLogic – RP Data, Realestate.com.au
21-23 Webb Rd, Sunshine Beach
Feb 2018 - $18,000,000
1103 sqm living area
52 days on-the-market
Originally listed for $22,000,000
• Population is growing
• Infrastructure to fuel job market
• New hubs to develop – push to near city
• Housing steady
• Units are correcting (potentially nearing the bottom)
• Land – levelling
• The head wind – tightening credit market
Summary
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report is provided in good faith and has been
derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, the report
is not intended to be comprehensive or render advice and neither Herron Todd
White nor any persons involved in the preparation of this report accepts any
form of liability for its contents. This report has copyright and cannot be
reproduced without written permission of Herron Todd White.