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Climate Change and Agriculture

Impacts and costs of adaptation

Gerald C. Nelson

Senior Research Fellow

Environment and Production Technology Division

5 October 2009

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Acknowledgements

The IFPRI authors Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard

Robertson, Timothy Sulser, Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler,Siwa Msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav Batka, MariliaMagalhaes, Rowena Valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing, and

David Lee Thanks also to

Ken Strzepek and Adam Schlosser of MIT for downscaledclimate scenarios

Urvashi Narain, Sergio Margulis, Bob Schneider, and other

members of the EACC global study report of the World Bank ADB staff and reviewers for valuable comments and insights

on the ADB report

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Preview of Results

Uncheckedclimate change will result in a 20 percentincrease in malnourished children by 2050

Agricultural productivity expenditures of over $7 Billion

per year are needed to compensate

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Outline

Climate Change Modeling Methodology

Impacts

Yields, prices, production, trade

Calorie consumption, child malnutrition

Adaptation Costs

Need to reduce malnutrition

Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

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MODELING METHODOLOGY FORCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

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Location-specific Biological andSocioeconomic Modeling is Critical

Climate change brings location-specificchanges in precipitation, temperature and variability to

local agronomic and market conditions

Modeling challenge To reconcile

limited resolution of macro-level economic models with

crop model detail

Result

More realistic modeling of climate change effects(biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture

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Global Change Model Components

Two GCM climate scenarios to show variability NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier)

DSSAT crop model

to estimate biological effects

ISPAM data

to show whereto estimate effects

IMPACT2009

To integrate biological effects from crop and hydrologyresults with detailed economic model

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CLIMATE DATA:

TODAY AND SCENARIOS FORTOMORROW

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Temperatures have been rising

Page 9Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

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and could increase much more

Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO2

Emissions

(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10 Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA

450ppm stabilisation

650ppm stabilisation

A1FI

A1BA1T

A2

B1

B2

2006

2005

2007

(Avgs.)

2008

Observed emissions are well above A2simulated emissions

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SRES (2000)

A2 aver.

growth rate for

2000-2010

2.13 %

Observed

2000-2007

3.5%

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update

A2

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AVERAGE ANNUALPRECIPITATION CHANGE IN

CLIMATE SCENARIOS DIFFERGREATLY

Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia

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Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050

CSIRO, A2, AR4

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Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050

NCAR, A2, AR4

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CLIMATE CHANGE YIELD

EFFECTS

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Climate change reduces average yields

Crop/managementsystem

Sub SaharanAfrica

East Asia andPacific

South Asia

Irrigated rice

NCAR -14.1 -19.8 -15.5

CSIRO -11.4 -13.0 -17.5Rainfed maize

NCAR -4.6 1.5 -7.8

CSIRO -2.4 -3.9 -2.9

Rainfed wheatNCAR -21.9 -14.8 -44.4

CSIRO -19.3 -16.1 -43.7

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AVERAGES CONCEAL GREAT

VARIATION

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Irrigated rice

NCAR A2

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CSIRO A2

Irrigated rice

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Rainfed rice

NCAR A2

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Rainfed rice

CSIRO A2

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Rainfed maize

NCAR A2

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Rainfed maize

CSIRO A2

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FOOD SUPPLY, DEMAND AND

TRADE RESULTSIMPACT2009

Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and

economic effects from global agriculture model

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Climate Change Makes Food PriceIncreases Greater

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-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans

DollarsPerMet

ricTon

2000 2050 No climate change 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF

Prices increase

without climate

change

Greater price

increases withclimate change

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Rice Production

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Wheat Production

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Large productionincreases in some

regions without

climate change

Climate changeeliminates those

gains

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Maize Production

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Cereal Trade Flows

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and therefore more

imports into

developing countries

Note that CSIRO results

in more exports from

developed countries

Note change in

direction for the

different scenarios

Cli Ch I Childh d

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Climate Change Increases ChildhoodMalnutrition

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-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

South Asia East Asia andPacific

Europe andCentral Asia

Latin Americaand

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Sub SaharanAfrica

MillionsofC

hildren

2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CCWithoutclimate change, child

malnutrition falls except in

Sub Saharan AfricaWith climate change, child

malnutrition increases

everywhere

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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCOSTS

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Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation

Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutritionwith climate change to the level with no climatechange

What types of investments are considered?

Agricultural research

Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements

Rural roads

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Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion

Required additional annual expenditure Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion

Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion

Regional level

Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainlyfor rural roads

South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigationefficiency

Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year,research

East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, researchand irrigation efficiency

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CONCLUSIONS ANDPOLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

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Conclusions

Climate change will have negative impacts Lower yields

Higher prices

More malnourished children

Changes in trade flows reduce the negative effects Agriculture is critical for

Poverty reduction

Economic development and

Food security Large additional expenditures should start nowto

reduce the adverse impacts of climate change

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Policy and Program Recommendations

Design and implement good overall developmentpolicies and programs

Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-change adaptation go hand in hand

At least $7 billion per year in additional productivityinvestments are needed just for climate changeadaptation in developing countries

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Think and Act Globally and Locally

Global public goods are needed Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis

Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within theinternational climate negotiation process

Complete the Doha Round

Expand international agricultural research National public goods are needed

Reinvigorate national research and extension programs

Build supporting national infrastructure roads, etc.

Provide supportive policy environment Local public goods are needed

Support community-based adaptation strategies

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